转自：新华财经 美国劳工统计局表示，由于此前政府关门导致调查工作中断，无法量化该事件对10-11月就业数据收集 的具体影响。这一表述加剧了市场对数据代表性的担忧，也为解读就业市场真实状况增添了难度。 尽管11月新增就业超预期，但结合10月下跌、前期数据下修的情况，近四个月就业市场整体呈现降温态 势。尤其是私营部门就业增长的连贯性被打破，显示企业招聘意愿在经济不确定性下趋于谨慎。 10月零售销售额环比持平，略低于预期的0.1%增长，9月数据被向上修正至增长0.1%。剔除汽车经销商 和加油站后，核心销售额增长0.5%，超出预期的0.4%，凸显剔除波动因素后的消费实力。（剔除食品 服务、汽车、建材、加油站）环比增长0.8%，为四个月来最高，远超预期的0.4%，该数据直接纳入 GDP商品支出核算，对经济增长形成支撑。 13个零售类别中有8个实现增长，百货商店和在线零售商表现尤为强劲，主要受益于假日购物季前的竞 争性促销活动。汽车及零部件经销商销售额下降1.6%，电动汽车联邦税收优惠到期是重要原因；汽油 价格走低则直接压低加油站销售额。 在就业市场降温、经济预期分化的背景下，核心零售数据的强劲表现表明，美国消费者需求并 ...

Group 1 - The "small non-farm" employment numbers for November unexpectedly recorded a negative value, leading to an 88.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.42%, the S&P 500 down 0.19%, and the Dow Jones down 0.03% [1] Group 2 - Microsoft shares fell by 2.5% after the company unusually lowered its AI software sales forecast due to lukewarm responses from enterprise customers to new products [1] - Macy's stock dropped 4.7% despite exceeding Q3 earnings expectations, as the company provided a cautious outlook for the holiday quarter [1] - Marvell Technology's stock rose by 8.5% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and announcing the acquisition of chip startup Celestial AI [1] - Microchip Technology's stock increased by over 5% after raising its guidance for Q3 net sales and earnings per share, citing strong booking performance during the period [1]

Core Insights - Kohl's reported revenue of $3.58 billion for the quarter ended October 2025, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 3.6% and an EPS of $0.10 compared to $0.20 a year ago, with a revenue surprise of +2.55% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.49 billion and an EPS surprise of +152.63% over the consensus estimate of -$0.19 [1] Financial Performance - The total number of stores remained at 1,153, matching the four-analyst average estimate [4] - Comparable store sales showed a year-over-year change of -1.7%, better than the -4.2% estimated by four analysts [4] - Net sales were reported at $3.41 billion, exceeding the four-analyst average estimate of $3.32 billion, with a year-over-year change of -2.9% [4] - Other revenue was reported at $168 million, slightly above the four-analyst average estimate of $166.82 million, with a year-over-year decline of 17.2% [4] Stock Performance - Kohl's shares have returned -3.9% over the past month, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -1.2% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Kohl's to report a quarterly loss of -$0.19 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 195% with revenues projected at $3.49 billion, down 5.9% from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor actions, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [2] Key Metrics Projections - Analysts predict 'Other revenue' to reach $166.82 million, reflecting a year-over-year change of -17.8% [4] - 'Net Sales' are expected to be $3.32 billion, indicating a decline of -5.2% from the prior-year quarter [4] - 'Revenue Recognition- Accessories' is projected at $670.83 million, suggesting a year-over-year increase of +3.2% [4] - 'Revenue Recognition- Children's' is estimated at $427.08 million, down -12.1% year over year [5] - 'Revenue Recognition- Footwear' is expected to be $274.17 million, indicating a decline of -16.4% from the previous year [5] - 'Revenue Recognition- Men's' is projected at $668.96 million, reflecting a change of -4.6% from the prior-year quarter [6] - 'Revenue Recognition- Women's' is expected to be $832.42 million, indicating a year-over-year change of -4.2% [6] - 'Revenue Recognition- Home' is projected at $443.00 million, reflecting a change of -6.3% from the prior-year quarter [6] Store Metrics - The consensus estimate for the total number of stores stands at 1,153, down from 1,178 in the same quarter last year [7] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Kohl's shares have recorded a return of -7.6%, compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.3% change, indicating a performance that aligns with the overall market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Dillard's (DDS) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook driven by an upward trend in earnings estimates, which significantly influences stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system emphasizes the importance of changing earnings estimates, which are closely correlated with near-term stock price movements, particularly due to institutional investors' reliance on these estimates for valuation [4][6]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value calculations for stocks, prompting institutional investors to buy or sell, thus affecting stock prices [4]. Dillard's Earnings Outlook - For the fiscal year ending January 2026, Dillard's is expected to earn $31.01 per share, which remains unchanged from the previous year, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 3.9% over the past three months, reflecting analysts' growing optimism [8][10]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks based on earnings estimate revisions, with only the top 20% of stocks receiving a "Strong Buy" or "Buy" rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revision features [9][10]. - Dillard's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported its best quarter in 12 quarters, exceeding guidance for sales, margin, revenue, EBITDA, and EPS [9] - Quarterly EBITDA growth was significant, with a notable increase in digital and physical business [9] - SG&A expenses were reduced by approximately $30 million compared to the previous year [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The reimagined 125 Macy's stores achieved a 1.4% comp performance in the second quarter, outperforming the overall fleet which was up 0.1% [19][20] - Bloomingdale's experienced over 5.7% growth for the fourth consecutive quarter, with strong performance attributed to a great assortment and marketing campaigns [9][25] - Bluemercury marked its 18th consecutive quarter of growth, indicating strong brand performance [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed 64 underproductive stores last year, generating cash proceeds of nearly $300 million from asset sales [22] - The recapture rate of customers from closed stores was better than expected, contributing positively to overall top-line growth [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The "Bold New Chapter" strategy aims to improve the quality of the entire enterprise, focusing on reimagining the Macy's nameplate and enhancing customer experience [10][11] - The strategy includes closing underperforming stores, increasing staffing in key areas, and leveraging AI for operational efficiency [13][19] - The company is committed to being a multi-category, multi-brand, and multi-price point retailer to adapt to changing consumer preferences [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding macroeconomic uncertainties but remains optimistic about the execution of their strategy [14] - The company anticipates a more choiceful consumer environment, embedding prudency into their guidance for the fall season [37] - Management believes that the current retail environment will lead to more market share consolidation, with Macy's positioned as a healthier retailer [41] Other Important Information - The company is focusing on private brand strategy, refreshing its portfolio and identifying white space opportunities in the market [57][58] - The impact of tariffs is expected to affect gross margins, with a projected increase in tariff-related costs [43][44] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the key highlights in the quarter and the drivers of momentum? - The company reported significant growth across all nameplates, with strong performance in both digital and physical channels [9] Question: How is the Bold New Chapter strategy performing? - The strategy has shown positive results, with improvements in customer experience and store performance [10][14] Question: What are the expectations for the operating environment moving forward? - Management expects a more choiceful consumer and has adjusted guidance accordingly, indicating a cautious outlook for the fall season [37] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of tariffs? - The company has embedded a 40 to 60 basis point impact on gross margin due to tariffs and is actively negotiating with vendors to mitigate costs [43][44] Question: What is the outlook for Bloomingdale's performance? - Bloomingdale's is performing well due to a strong assortment and effective marketing strategies, with plans for further expansion [25][29]

Core Viewpoint - Dillard's has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Rising earnings estimates for Dillard's suggest an improvement in the company's underlying business, likely leading to an increase in stock price [5][10]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7][9]. - Only the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks receive a "Strong Buy" rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions [9][10]. Recent Earnings Estimate Revisions - For the fiscal year ending January 2026, Dillard's is expected to earn $30.62 per share, unchanged from the previous year, but the Zacks Consensus Estimate has increased by 4.6% over the past three months [8].

Group 1 - The core index of the China Securities Index for Food and Major Consumer Goods Retail has shown a 2.25% increase over the past month and a 2.31% increase over the past three months, while it has decreased by 1.96% year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of listed companies in the food and drug retail sector, reflecting the overall performance of these companies, with a base date of December 31, 2004, set at 1000.0 points [1] - The top ten weighted companies in the index include Shenzhou Digital (7.19%), Yonghui Supermarket (6.23%), Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (4.53%), and Yifeng Pharmacy (4.13%) [1] Group 2 - The market segments represented in the index include 51.91% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 48.09% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] - The industry composition of the index shows that pharmaceutical commerce accounts for 43.93%, specialized retail for 21.21%, supermarkets and convenience stores for 20.32%, and department stores for 14.54% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. retail sales showed a general increase in July, driven by auto sales and major online promotions, indicating a rise in consumer spending in recent months, although potential headwinds from a slowing job market and rising goods prices may dampen growth in Q3 [1][3]. Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - July retail sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month, matching expectations, with the previous value revised from 0.6% to 0.9%. Excluding auto sales, retail sales grew by 0.3% [1][3]. - Among 13 categories, 9 reported sales growth, with auto sales experiencing the largest increase since March [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Sales - The increase in retail sales may be partly attributed to rising prices due to tariffs rather than an increase in volume. Analysts noted a rush to purchase electric vehicles before the federal tax credit expires on September 30 [3]. - Major retailers like Amazon and Walmart held promotional events to attract consumers feeling the pinch of inflation, particularly for back-to-school essentials [3]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Economic Outlook - Consumer spending has shown remarkable resilience over the past five years, but recent signs indicate that consumers are tightening their belts due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and immigration policies [4]. - Despite strong retail sales in June, the performance in May and April was lackluster, leading to concerns about a slowdown in spending [4].

Group 1 - The core index of the China Securities Index for Food and Major Consumer Goods Retail has shown a recent upward trend, with a 4.43% increase over the past month, a 0.49% increase over the past three months, and a year-to-date decline of 3.88% [1] - The index is composed of listed companies in the food and drug retail sector, reflecting the overall performance of these companies, with a base date of December 31, 2004, set at 1000.0 points [1] - The top ten weighted companies in the index include Yonghui Supermarket (6.49%), Digital China (6.34%), Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (4.65%), Yifeng Pharmacy (4.23%), and others [1] Group 2 - The market share of the index's holdings is divided between the Shanghai Stock Exchange (53.16%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (46.84%) [1] - In terms of industry composition, the index shows that pharmaceutical commerce accounts for 44.64%, supermarkets and convenience stores for 20.60%, specialty retail for 20.32%, and department stores for 14.44% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2]