Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 46.86 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 24.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.87 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [2]. - The development business continues to face pressure, while diversified operations support performance; inventory reduction needs to accelerate, and the debt structure is improving [2]. - The company’s sales in the first half of 2024 were 51.1 billion yuan, a decline of 48.1%, with over 90% of sales coming from first- and second-tier cities [2]. - The company has a total land bank of 41.41 million square meters, down 8.8% from the end of 2023, indicating a depleting inventory cycle of approximately 5.7 years [2]. - The company opened three new shopping malls in the first half of 2024 and plans to open about ten more in the second half [2]. - The average loan term has been extended to 9.2 years, with a net debt ratio of 56.7% and a cash-to-short-debt ratio of 1.01 times, indicating a stable financial condition [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 158.81 billion yuan, with a decline of 12.1% year-on-year; net profit is expected to be 10.93 billion yuan, down 14.9% [5]. - The company’s gross profit margin is 20.6%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a drop in the gross margin of the development business [2]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of June 2024, total borrowings were 187.4 billion yuan, down 5.2 billion yuan from the end of 2023, with cash reserves of 50.1 billion yuan [2]. - The company maintains a healthy financial status with a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.6% after adjustments [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued pressure on sales and profit margins in the real estate market, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.9X for 2024, indicating a valuation that reflects the company's diversified and stable development [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was impacted by its development business, leading to a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit. Maintaining liquidity is the top priority [3] - The company has effectively covered its debt due within the next year with available cash, despite a decrease in total interest-bearing debt [3] - The operational and service segments are increasingly contributing to the company's performance, with a notable growth in revenue from these areas [3] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 46.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.87 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [3] - The overall gross margin was 20.6%, down 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, with the development business gross margin under pressure at 7.4% [3] - The company's sales continued to face challenges, with total sales amounting to 51.12 billion yuan, a decline of 48.1% year-on-year [3] Debt and Liquidity Management - As of August 23, 2024, the company had a cash balance of 50.06 billion yuan, which effectively covers its debt due within the next year [3] - The company’s interest-bearing debt decreased by 9.5% year-on-year to 187.42 billion yuan, with a net debt ratio of 56.7% [3] Operational Highlights - The company opened three new shopping malls in H1 2024, achieving a total operational area of 8.29 million square meters with a rental rate of 96% [3] - Rental income from shopping malls reached 5.32 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year, while the rental income from its rental apartments also grew by 6.5% [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to be 163.53 billion yuan, 154.84 billion yuan, and 147.71 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 10.98 billion yuan, 10.35 billion yuan, and 9.95 billion yuan [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longfor Group (00960) with a 6-month outlook [1] Core Views - Longfor Group's 2024 interim results show a 24 5% YoY decline in revenue to RMB 46 86 billion and a 27 2% YoY drop in net profit to RMB 5 87 billion [1] - The company's operating and service businesses contribute over 80% of core profits, indicating an optimized profit structure [1] - Longfor Group has significantly improved its debt structure, with short-term debt pressure gradually easing [1] - The company's multi-channel business model, particularly in operations and services, provides stable support to help navigate industry cycles [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024 H1 revenue: RMB 46 86 billion (-24 5% YoY) [1] - 2024 H1 net profit: RMB 5 87 billion (-27 2% YoY) [1] - 2024 H1 core profit: RMB 4 75 billion [1] - Gross margin: 20 6% (-1 8pct YoY) [1] - Core profit margin: 10 1% (-0 5pct YoY) [1] Sales and Development - 2024 H1 contract sales: RMB 51 12 billion (-48 1% YoY) [1] - Sales area: 3 655 million sqm (-37 0% YoY) [1] - Development business revenue: RMB 33 76 billion (-32 3% YoY) [1] - Development business gross margin: 7 4% (-6 9pct YoY) [1] Debt and Liquidity - Total debt: RMB 187 42 billion (-9 5% YoY) [1] - Cash on hand: RMB 50 06 billion (-30 9% YoY) [1] - Net debt ratio: 56 7% (-0 5pct YoY) [1] - Cash to short-term debt ratio: 1 01x [1] Operations and Services - 2024 H1 rental income: RMB 6 61 billion (+4 4% YoY) [1] - Shopping mall occupancy rate: 96 0% (+0 6pct YoY) [1] - Rental housing occupancy rate: 95 6% (+1 9pct YoY) [1] - Property management area: 3 7 billion sqm (+5 7% YoY) [1] Financial Forecasts Income Statement (RMB million) - 2024E revenue: 171,699 75 (-5 0% YoY) [4] - 2025E revenue: 178,584 91 (+4 01% YoY) [4] - 2026E revenue: 184,978 25 (+3 58% YoY) [4] - 2024E net profit: 12,400 93 (-3 49% YoY) [4] - 2025E net profit: 13,298 27 (+7 24% YoY) [4] - 2026E net profit: 14,822 38 (+11 46% YoY) [4] Balance Sheet (RMB million) - 2024E total assets: 696,806 61 [4] - 2025E total assets: 700,620 54 [4] - 2026E total assets: 715,525 38 [4] - 2024E total liabilities: 463,812 13 [4] - 2025E total liabilities: 449,703 85 [4] - 2026E total liabilities: 424,632 43 [4] Key Ratios - 2024E gross margin: 16 92% [4] - 2025E gross margin: 17 92% [4] - 2026E gross margin: 18 92% [4] - 2024E net margin: 7 22% [4] - 2025E net margin: 7 45% [4] - 2026E net margin: 8 01% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][13] Core Insights - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024, with total revenue of 46.86 billion yuan, down 24.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.87 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [3][6][10] - The operational and service business showed resilience, contributing over 80% to the core profit, with service revenue increasing by 7.6% [3][6][10] - The company maintains a healthy debt structure with a net debt ratio of 56.7% and an average borrowing cost of 4.16% [4][6][10] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 168.14 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.2% [1] - Net profit for 2024 is expected to be 11.61 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.6% decrease year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to be 17.0% in 2024, slightly improving to 17.5% by 2026 [1][14] Business Segment Analysis - The development business revenue decreased by 32.3% to 33.76 billion yuan, accounting for 72.0% of total revenue [3][6][10] - Rental income from operational services increased by 4.3% to 6.61 billion yuan, representing 14.1% of total revenue [3][6][10] - The company’s property management and related services revenue grew by 11.1% to 6.49 billion yuan, making up 13.8% of total revenue [3][6][10] Debt and Financing - As of the end of the first half of 2024, the company had total borrowings of 187.42 billion yuan and cash on hand of 50.06 billion yuan [4][6][10] - The cash-to-short-term debt ratio stands at 1.01 times, indicating a balanced liquidity position [4][6][10] Valuation and Price Target - The estimated EPS for 2024 is approximately 1.69 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6-7 times, leading to a target price range of 10.12-11.81 yuan per share [4][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][3][7] Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in core net profit by 28% in the first half of 2024, with total revenue of 469 billion yuan, down 24.5% year-on-year. The attributable net profit was 59 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2%. The core net profit, excluding minority interests and fair value changes of investment properties and financial derivatives, was 48 billion yuan, down 27.9% [2][4][5] - The property development business faced challenges, with revenue dropping to 338 billion yuan, a 32% decline year-on-year. However, the operational and service revenue grew by 7% to 131 billion yuan, providing stable cash flow to mitigate the impact of the downturn in development business [2][4][5] - The company maintains a robust land reserve, with a total of 41.41 million square meters and an average land cost of 4,729 yuan per square meter. The high-quality land reserves account for 73% of the total area, representing 78% of the sales value [5][6][7] Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted downwards to 154.3 billion yuan and 139.8 billion yuan, respectively, due to the decline in the transfer scale. The attributable net profit forecasts for the same years are 11.4 billion yuan and 11.0 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.66 yuan and 1.60 yuan [2][7][8] - The company's financial health is stable, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 59% and a net debt ratio of 57%. The company has 501 billion yuan in cash and a total interest-bearing debt of 1,874 billion yuan [5][6][7] - The company operates 91 shopping malls with a total operational area of 8.29 million square meters, and the operational revenue for the first half of 2024 was 131 billion yuan, with service revenue growing by 11% [6][7]

Financial Performance - Contract sales amounted to RMB 51.12 billion, corresponding to a total sales area of 3.655 million square meters[1] - Revenue reached RMB 46.86 billion, with operating and service business revenue contributing RMB 13.10 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%[1] - Shareholders' profit attributable was RMB 5.87 billion, with core profit after fair value adjustments at RMB 4.75 billion, over 80% contributed by operating and service businesses[1] - Gross profit was RMB 9.64 billion, with a gross margin of 20.6% and a core net profit margin of 11.7%[1] - The company reported a net profit of RMB 6.97 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 9.30 billion in the same period last year[2] - Total comprehensive income for the period was RMB 6.89 billion, down from RMB 9.57 billion year-on-year[3] - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 46,855,050, a decrease of 24.5% compared to RMB 62,044,415 for the same period in 2023[16] - Customer contract revenue decreased to RMB 40,247,297 from RMB 55,712,107, representing a decline of 27.5% year-over-year[16] - The adjusted segment profit for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was RMB 7,345,042, down from RMB 11,084,545 in the previous year, indicating a decrease of about 33.1%[14] - The company reported a comprehensive pre-tax profit of RMB 9,130,542 for the six months ending June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 12,374,676 for the same period in 2023, reflecting a decline of approximately 26.3%[14] Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets totaled RMB 262.91 billion, while current assets amounted to RMB 431.41 billion as of June 30, 2024[4] - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 449,952,522, slightly up from RMB 449,483,963 as of December 31, 2023[16] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 163,179,246 from RMB 160,540,953, reflecting a rise of 1.0%[18] - As of June 30, 2024, the group's total borrowings amounted to RMB 187.42 billion, with cash on hand of RMB 50.06 billion, resulting in a net debt ratio of 56.7%[58] - The average financing cost for the group is 4.16%, with a weighted average loan term of 9.19 years; non-collateralized debt accounts for 47.5% of total debt[58] Earnings and Dividends - Basic earnings per share were RMB 0.90, with core basic earnings per share at RMB 0.73, and an interim dividend of RMB 0.22 per share was declared[1] - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 1,488,848,000, equivalent to RMB 0.22 per share, compared to RMB 2,029,345,000 or RMB 0.32 per share for the same period last year[26] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 5,865,716, down from RMB 8,057,952 in 2023[27] Business Segments - The company’s operating segments are categorized into development, operating, and service businesses, with the development business primarily focused on properties in China[11] - The development business segment generated revenue of RMB 33,757,912, while the operating business and service business segments contributed RMB 6,607,753 and RMB 9,115,138, respectively[13] - For the first half of 2024, the group's development business revenue was RMB 33.76 billion, with a total delivered property area of 3.029 million square meters, and a gross profit margin of 7.4%[35] - The property management segment generated revenue of RMB 5.78 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.2%[32] - The group's service business and other non-tax revenue reached RMB 6.49 billion in the first half of 2024, an increase of 11.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 32.3%[48] Market and Sales - The total sales of commercial housing in China for the first half of 2024 amounted to RMB 4.71 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25%[31] - The western region accounted for 28.1% of the total contracted sales, while the Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim regions contributed 27.0% and 20.1%, respectively[37] - The group continues to expand its operational business in major first and second-tier cities, focusing on shopping malls and rental housing[41] - The total revenue from the group's various cities showed significant variation, with Chengdu leading at RMB 5.732 billion, followed by Xi'an at RMB 3.758 billion[38] Operational Highlights - The company opened 91 shopping malls in 20 key cities, achieving an overall occupancy rate of 96%[32] - Rental income from the long-term rental apartment brand "Guan Yu" reached RMB 1.31 billion, with an occupancy rate of 95.6%[32] - The total operational area of the group's shopping malls was 8.29 million square meters, with an overall occupancy rate of 96.0%[42] - The average daily foot traffic for the shopping malls was 2.95 million visitors, with total sales amounting to RMB 34.2 billion in the first half of 2024[45] Strategic Initiatives - The company emphasized financial stability and proactive debt reduction as key strategies for sustainable growth amid market challenges[33] - The group plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhance its product offerings in the coming quarters[42] - The group plans to open approximately 10 new malls in cities such as Suzhou, Hefei, and Tianjin in the second half of the year, continuing its strategy of balanced development in core cities[60] Governance and Compliance - The company has appointed Mr. Chen Xuping as both the Chairman of the Board and the CEO, which deviates from the corporate governance code that recommends these roles be separated[65] - The Audit Committee, consisting of three independent non-executive directors, has reviewed the unaudited interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2024, prior to board approval[66] - All directors confirmed compliance with the standard code regarding securities trading for the six months ending June 30, 2024[67] - The interim report for the six months ending June 30, 2024, will be sent to shareholders and published on the company's website and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's dedicated site[68]

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 52周内股价走势图 龙湖集团 恒生指数 -55% -44% -32% -21% -9% 2% 2023/82023/9 2023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/8 本报告导读： 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------|---------------------------|----------------------| | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 黄可意(研究助理) | 白淑媛(分析师) | | | 010-83939826 | 010-83939815 | 021-38675923 | | | xiehaoyu@gtjas.com | huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com | baishuyuan@gtj ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its initial coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has a diversified business model that supports growth across various segments, focusing on high-energy cities for its development activities [2][3]. - The company's operational and service segments contribute significantly to its profitability, helping it navigate through market cycles [2][3]. - The debt structure is well-managed, with a focus on maintaining low financing costs and a healthy balance sheet [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the real estate sector for over 31 years, establishing itself as a leading comprehensive real estate developer in China with a "1+2+2" business model [2][8]. - The ownership structure is stable, with significant control retained by the founding families [10][11]. 2. Development Business - The company has focused its development efforts on high-energy cities, with over 90% of sales coming from first and second-tier cities [2][3]. - Sales performance has been strong, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.1% from 2014 to 2023, and a sales completion rate in line with industry averages [2][3][15]. - The company has adopted a cautious approach to land acquisition, with a significant portion of its land reserves located in core cities [2][3][22]. 3. Operational and Service Segments - The operational business, including shopping malls and rental apartments, has shown stable growth, contributing over 60% to the company's profits [2][3][24]. - The rental income from the company's long-term rental apartments has been increasing, with a high occupancy rate and consistent profitability [2][3][28]. - The service segment, including property management, has also seen growth, with a focus on quality and customer satisfaction [2][3][29]. 4. Debt Structure and Financing - The company's debt levels have decreased, with a focus on maintaining a healthy financial position and low financing costs [2][3][32]. - The debt maturity profile is well-structured, with a significant portion of debt maturing in the longer term, reducing short-term repayment pressure [2][3][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company’s non-development business is showing stable improvement, while the development business still requires recovery. It is expected to improve under supportive policies [2][3]. - The company’s sales in April were 8.9 billion RMB, with a sales area of 590,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 45.9% and 38.4%, respectively. However, the decline has narrowed compared to the previous month [3]. - The average selling price in April slightly increased by 2.7% to 15,000 RMB per square meter, but the cumulative average selling price from January to April was 14,499 RMB per square meter, lower than the average of 16,070 RMB for the entire year of 2023 [3]. - The company has significantly increased its land investment intensity to 71%, focusing on core first and second-tier cities, with new land worth approximately 12 billion RMB added in April [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s operating revenue for 2024 is projected to be 178.5 billion RMB, with a slight decrease of 1.2% compared to 2023. The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 13.035 billion RMB, reflecting a 1.4% increase [1][3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 to 2026 are maintained at 1.93 RMB, 1.97 RMB, and 2.07 RMB, respectively [3].

Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in revenue, achieving a total of 10 billion in 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of 15%[4] - The operating and service business generated sustainable revenue of RMB24.9 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 6%[55] - The property development business recorded contracted sales of RMB173.49 billion for the year, with a total sales area of 10.796 million square meters and an average selling price of RMB16,070 per square meter[74] - The Group achieved contract sales of RMB173.5 billion in the development business, ranking ninth in the industry[55] - The total contracted sales in 2023 decreased from RMB201.59 billion in 2022, indicating a year-over-year decline[78] Market Expansion and Strategy - The company is expanding its market presence, targeting 10 new cities in Southern China by the end of 2024[4] - The company is actively pursuing market expansion in Fuzhou with projects like Jiangchen Garden and Yangxia Street Plot, both set to complete in 2025[19] - The company is planning to expand its market presence with multiple projects in Qingdao, including the Lan'an Central and Fairy Castle projects, both with a 70% interest and significant GFA under development[22] - The company is expanding its presence in Changsha with multiple projects, including the Binhe Road Project and the Datang Longfor Qingyunque Project, both expected to complete in 2024[19] - The company is actively expanding its market presence with multiple projects in cities like Tianjin, Wuhan, and Lanzhou[25] Project Development - The company has a total of 36 ongoing and planned projects in Chongqing, with a significant focus on residential developments, including Bright City and Meilin Meiyuan, expected to complete in 2028 and 2026 respectively[17] - The company has a total of 20 principal development properties with varying completion dates, including projects in Haikou, Hangzhou, and Nanjing, with expected completion dates ranging from 2024 to 2028[20] - The company is developing the E-sports Town New Project in Guiyang, with a completion date set for November 2024 and a 90% interest in the project[17] - The company has a diverse portfolio with projects in multiple cities, including Guangzhou and Hefei, indicating a robust growth strategy across different regions[19] - The company is focusing on residential developments, with a majority of projects categorized under residential use[23] Financial Management and Debt - As of the end of 2023, the Group's interest-bearing liabilities totaled RMB192.6 billion, a decrease of 7.4% compared to 2022[52] - The Group plans to optimize its debt structure by gradually reducing indebtedness to ensure financial sustainability[52] - The Group's consolidated borrowings amounted to RMB192.65 billion, with cash in hand of RMB60.42 billion[134] - The net debt to equity ratio was 55.9%, and the liabilities to asset ratio (excluding pre-sale deposits) was 60.4%[134] - The average borrowing cost was 4.24%, with fixed-rate debt accounting for 32% of total debt[138] Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The company has set a target to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2025 as part of its sustainability strategy[4] - The Group's commitment to ESG initiatives is reflected in its inclusion in the Hang Seng Corporate Sustainability Index and an improved MSCI ESG rating of AA[65] - The company is committed to sustainable development, with a significant portion of its projects focused on residential and commercial spaces, enhancing community living[17] Corporate Governance - The Company is committed to achieving a high standard of corporate governance and has complied with applicable code provisions, except for specific deviations noted in the report[188] - The Board currently consists of nine directors, including four executive directors and four independent non-executive directors, ensuring a strong independence element in its composition[195] - The Company emphasizes the importance of corporate transparency and accountability in its governance practices[188] - The Board has reviewed the Group's Code of Conduct and assessed the risk management and internal control systems during the year[198] - The effectiveness of the Company's corporate governance policy was confirmed by the Board[198] Operational Performance - Same-store sales for opened malls increased by 30% year-on-year, with average daily foot traffic up by 28%[55] - The occupancy rate of malls recovered from 93% at the beginning of last year to 96%[55] - The total rental income from shopping malls was RMB 7.97 billion, representing a 22.7% decrease from RMB 10.28 billion in 2022[94] - The average daily foot traffic across all shopping malls was 2.63 million in 2023, indicating strong consumer engagement[95] - The Group's rental income, net of tax, from Investment Property Operation was RMB12.94 billion, representing an increase of 8.9% compared to the previous year[84]