Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating to "Accumulate" from "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The company maintains financial stability with light public debt pressure due in 2024, having a cash balance of 60.42 billion and a short-term debt repayment pressure that is manageable [2] - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2023, with total revenue of 180.74 billion, down 27.9% year-on-year, and a core net profit of 11.35 billion, down 49.4% year-on-year [2][3] - The company continues to face sales pressure, focusing land acquisitions in core first and second-tier cities, with total sales amounting to 173.49 billion, a decrease of 13.9% year-on-year [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - As of the end of 2023, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 192.65 billion, a decrease of 7.4% year-on-year, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 2.25 times [2] - The overall gross margin for the company was 16.9%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.1%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s land reserve stood at 45.39 million square meters, with a focus on higher-tier cities, and the land acquisition area decreased by 17.9% year-on-year [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report forecasts revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 171.52 billion, 164.15 billion, and 158.64 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.47 billion, 12.34 billion, and 12.51 billion [2][4]

2024年4月1日 公司研究 开发业务结算规模下降，经营性业务利润补位 ——龙湖集团（0960.HK）动态跟踪 要点 买入（维持） 当 前价：11.06港元 事件：据克而瑞数据显示，龙湖集团24年1-3月实现全口径销售额237亿元。 点评：开发收入大幅下滑等因素带动业绩下降，销售短期承压，财务整体稳健。 作者 23年开发业务收入大幅减少，毛利率大幅下滑有望筑底：2023年，公司实现营 分析师：何缅南 业收入1807亿元，同比减少27.9%，主要因前期销售额减少导致开发业务营收 执业证书编号：S0930518060006 021-52523801 同比减少31.3%至1559亿元；公司综合毛利率为16.9%，同比降低4.2pct，其 hemiannan@ebscn.com 中开发业务毛利率为 11.0%，同比降低 6.9pct，主要因前期获取的低毛利项目 结算以及 23 年新增计提存货减值 10 亿元；公司归母净利润 128.5 亿元，同比 联系人：庄晓波 减少 47.3%，其中核心归母净利润为 113.5 亿元，同比减少 49.6%，同比降幅 021-52523416 zhuangxiaobo@ebscn.c ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][20]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant decline in revenue and profit for 2023, with total revenue at 1810.94 billion yuan, down 27.8% year-on-year. The gross profit was 305.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.3% [8][15]. - The company maintains a focus on financial stability and internal growth, with a projected EPS of approximately 2.05 yuan for 2024, and a valuation range of 12.29 to 14.34 yuan per share based on a PE ratio of 6-7 times [4][20]. - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 0.55 yuan per share for the year, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.61% based on the closing price on March 25 [8][15]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In 2023, total revenue was 1810.94 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 27.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12850.01 million yuan, down 47.3% [2][8]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin for 2023 was 16.9%, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points from 2022 [8][15]. - **Property Development**: Revenue from property development fell by 31.3% to 1558.6 billion yuan, accounting for 86.2% of total revenue [8][15]. - **Property Investment**: Property investment revenue increased by 8.9% to 129.4 billion yuan, representing 7.2% of total revenue [8][15]. - **Cash Flow and Debt**: The company achieved positive operating cash flow in 2023, with total borrowings of 1926.5 billion yuan and a net debt ratio of 55.9% [5][8]. Business Segment Analysis - **Property Sales**: The company experienced a 13.9% decline in contract sales, totaling 1734.9 billion yuan, with a sales area of 1079.6 million square meters [15][17]. - **Land Reserves**: As of the end of 2023, the company had a total land reserve of 4539 million square meters, with an average cost of 4705 yuan per square meter [17][19]. - **Social Responsibility**: The company has engaged in various social responsibility initiatives, including disaster relief and support for rural revitalization, contributing over 1.9 billion yuan [19].

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[ 龙I Tnaf 湖bol]e 集_Ti 团tle] （ 0960） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 10.18 经营性收入稳健增长 2024.03.25 ——2月经营数据点评 海 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 7.92-24.85 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前股本（百万股） 6,767 当前市值（百万港元） 68,891 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 司 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 52周内股价走势图 中 本报告导读： 公司发布 2 月经营数据，开发业务延续上月表现继续承压，拿地投资布局优势城 龙湖集团 恒生指数 国 市； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longfor Group (00960.HK) [1][2][6] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in both revenue and profit, with operating business showing stable development. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 180.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%, and a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan, down 47.3% [3][6] - The core net profit, excluding minority interests and fair value changes of investment properties and financial derivatives, was 11.4 billion yuan, a decline of 49.6% year-on-year. The property development business generated revenue of 155.9 billion yuan, down 31%, while operational revenue increased by 9% to 12.9 billion yuan [3][6] - The company focuses on core cities to ensure cash flow, achieving a sales area of 10.8 million square meters, down 17.2%, and sales amounting to 173.5 billion yuan, down 13.9%. The company maintained a 100% collection rate [3][6] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted downwards due to market downturns affecting the company's turnover scale and gross margin. Expected net profits for 2024 and 2025 are 12.92 billion yuan and 12.95 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.91 yuan [1][6][10] - The company’s financial safety is highlighted by a debt-to-asset ratio of 60% and a net debt ratio of 56% as of the end of 2023. The company has a cash balance of 60.4 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year, and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.36 times [6][9] Business Segmentation - The company’s land reserves total 45.39 million square meters, with an average land cost of 4,705 yuan per square meter. High-quality land reserves account for 72% of total area, representing 77% of sales value [3][6] - The company has secured financing channels, with new operating property loans of 17.4 billion yuan and remaining bank credit limits exceeding 200 billion yuan [6][9]

股 票 研 究 [Table_industryInfo] 房地产 [ Table_Main[ 龙I Tnaf 湖bol]e 集_Ti 团tle] （ 0960） [评Tab级le_：Inv est] 增持 当前价格（港元）： 10.18 积极调整，坚韧前行 2024.03.25 ——2023年业绩点评 海 [ 交Ta易bl数e_M据a rket] 外 谢皓宇(分析师) 黄可意(研究助理) 白淑媛(分析师) 52周内股价区间（港元） 7.92-24.85 公 010-83939826 010-83939815 021-38675923 当前股本（百万股） 6,767 当前市值（百万港元） 68,891 xiehaoyu@gtjas.com huangkeyi028691@gtjas.com baishuyuan@gtjas.com 司 证书编号 S0880518010002 S0880123070129 S0880518010004 （ [ Table_PicQuote] 52周内股价走势图 中 本报告导读： 公司 2023年继续缩表，毛利率因开发业务短暂承压进一步探底；未来公司将以高质 龙湖集团 恒生指数 国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Longfor Group (0960) [2] Core Views - Longfor Group's 2023 revenue was RMB 180.737 billion, down 27.87% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping 47.25% to RMB 12.85 billion [2] - The company's gross margin fell to 16.92%, a 4.25 percentage point decrease from 2022, mainly due to lower development margin (11% vs 17% in 2022) [2] - Sales volume decreased 13.94% to RMB 173.488 billion, while average selling price increased 4% to RMB 16,069.6 per square meter [2] - Rental income grew 8.9% to RMB 12.94 billion, with shopping malls contributing 77.4% and rental housing 19.7% [2] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown: Development business turnover down 31.35%, significantly impacting overall revenue [2] - Profitability: Gross margin declined to 16.92%, with development margin dropping 6.9 percentage points to 11% [2] - Expense ratios: Management expense ratio increased to 2.91% (up 0.78ppt), sales expense ratio rose to 3.04% (up 0.33ppt) [2] Sales and Land Bank - Regional sales distribution: Yangtze River Delta (28.9%), Bohai Rim (21.8%), Western China (28.4%) [2] - Land acquisition: Added 31 plots totaling 3.68 million sqm GFA, with average land cost of RMB 9,730 per sqm [2] - Land bank: Total 45.39 million sqm, with 71.29% equity ratio and average cost of RMB 4,705 per sqm [2] Operational Highlights - Shopping malls: 88 operational malls with 7.97 million sqm GFA, achieving 96.2% occupancy rate [2] - Rental housing: 123,000 operational units with 95.5% occupancy rate, generating RMB 2.93 billion in revenue [2] - New openings: 12 new malls in 2023 (7 light-asset), with 14 more planned for 2024 [2] Financial Health - Leverage: Net debt ratio at 55.9%, debt-to-asset ratio (excluding advance receipts) at 60.4% [5] - Debt structure: Short-term debt at 13.9%, foreign debt at 17.7% [5] - Liquidity: Cash position of RMB 60.42 billion, cash-to-short-term-debt ratio of 1.36 [5] Future Projections - Revenue forecast: RMB 181.584 billion (2024E), RMB 194.204 billion (2025E), RMB 205.429 billion (2026E) [5] - Net profit forecast: RMB 12.85 billion (2024E), RMB 13.871 billion (2025E), RMB 14.704 billion (2026E) [5] - Valuation: PE ratios of 5.20X (2024E), 4.82X (2025E), 4.55X (2026E) [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4] Core Views - The company reported a core net profit decrease of 50% year-on-year for 2023, which was in line with expectations, with operational and service businesses contributing over 60% to performance [3] - The company plans to continue increasing the contribution from its operational and service segments [3] - Despite pressure on real estate sales, the company's operational and service segments are expected to provide stable contributions to performance [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 180.737 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9% [3][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 12.85 billion yuan, down 47.3% year-on-year [3][5] - The core net profit was 11.35 billion yuan, reflecting a 49.6% decrease year-on-year [3][5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 2.07 yuan, down 49.4% year-on-year [3][5] - The gross profit margin, net profit margin, and core net profit margin were 16.9%, 7.1%, and 6.3%, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 4.2 percentage points, 2.6 percentage points, and 2.7 percentage points [3] Business Segment Performance - The real estate settlement revenue was 155.9 billion yuan, down 31.3% year-on-year, with a settlement area of 10.71 million square meters, also down 31.0% [3] - The company’s diversified business revenue reached 24.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [3] - The company’s investment income was 1.55 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 12.9 billion yuan and 13.2 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 24.9 billion yuan and 25.8 billion yuan [3] - The company’s current price corresponds to a 2024 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of only 4.9 times, indicating a favorable outlook for stable growth [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1][18] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 180.74 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 27.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.85 billion RMB, down 47.3% year-on-year [3][4] - The company maintains a stable financial position with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.96 and a net debt ratio of 55.9%, which is a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The operational business showed resilience with rental income increasing by 8.9% to 12.94 billion RMB, contributing significantly to profits [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 180.74 billion RMB, down 27.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.85 billion RMB, down 47.3% year-on-year. The core net profit, excluding fair value changes, decreased by 49.6% to 11.35 billion RMB [3][4] - The gross profit was 30.58 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 16.9%. The core after-tax profit margin was 8.7%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [3] Development Business - The development business generated revenue of 155.86 billion RMB, with a total delivered property area of 10.708 million square meters and a settlement gross margin of 11.0% [3] - The company focused on core regions, with contract sales amounting to 173.49 billion RMB, corresponding to a sales area of 10.796 million square meters, with an average price of 16,070 RMB per square meter [3] Operational Business - The operational business achieved rental income of 12.94 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%. The overall occupancy rate for opened shopping malls was 96.2% [4] - The company opened 12 new shopping malls in 2023, with same-store sales and foot traffic both increasing by over 30% year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders from 2024 to 2026 is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.0% [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Longfor Group (0960) [2] Core Views - Longfor Group's 2023 revenue was RMB 180.737 billion, down 27.87% YoY, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.85 billion, down 47.25% YoY [2] - The company's gross margin declined to 16.92% in 2023, down 4.25 percentage points from 2022, with development gross margin dropping to 11% from 17% [2] - Sales in 2023 reached RMB 173.488 billion, down 13.94% YoY, with a sales area of 10.796 million sqm, down 17.25% YoY, but the average selling price increased by 4% to RMB 16,069.6 per sqm [2] - The company added 31 new land parcels in 2023, with a total construction area of 3.68 million sqm and an average land cost of RMB 9,730 per sqm [2] - Rental income in 2023 was RMB 12.94 billion, up 8.9% YoY, with shopping malls contributing 77.4% of the total rental income [2] Financial Performance - The company's net debt ratio was 55.9% at the end of 2023, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 60.4% after excluding advance receipts [5] - Interest-bearing debt decreased by 7.4% to RMB 192.6 billion at the end of 2023, with short-term debt accounting for 13.9% and foreign debt for 17.7% [5] - The company's cash position remained strong, with RMB 60.42 billion in hand at the end of 2023, resulting in a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.36 [5] - The average borrowing cost was 4.24% per annum, with an average loan term of 7.85 years [5] Business Operations - The company's shopping mall business achieved rental income of RMB 10.28 billion in 2023, up 9% YoY, with an occupancy rate of 96.2% [2] - Long-term rental apartments generated rental income of RMB 2.93 billion in 2023, up 13% YoY, with a five-year CAGR of 25% [2] - The company plans to open 14 new shopping malls in 2024, continuing its asset-light strategy [2] Regional Performance - Sales in the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, and Western regions accounted for 28.9%, 21.8%, and 28.4% of total sales, respectively [2] - The company's land reserves totaled 45.39 million sqm at the end of 2023, with an average land cost of RMB 4,705 per sqm, representing 29.3% of the current selling price [2] Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenue growth of 0.47%, 6.95%, and 5.78% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 12.85 billion, RMB 13.871 billion, and RMB 14.704 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The company's EPS is projected to be RMB 1.90, RMB 2.05, and RMB 2.17 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]