Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of U.S. tariffs on the global alcohol industry, leading to job losses and financial strain for companies, including the closure of the historic Barrels Factory in Kentucky, which will result in 210 employees losing their jobs [2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Companies - The closure of the Barrels Factory is part of a broader strategy by Brown-Forman to cut costs, with an expected annual savings of at least $70 million and potential asset recovery exceeding $30 million [2]. - Brown-Forman's global workforce reduction plan includes laying off over 540 employees, indicating a significant shift in operational strategy due to tariff pressures [3]. - The global alcohol industry is experiencing a downturn, with many companies facing stagnant or declining sales, prompting them to adjust their strategies in response to tariff uncertainties [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trade - The U.S. is a major market for imported alcoholic beverages, with projected imports of distilled spirits at $11.42 billion, beer at $6.7 billion, and wine at nearly $6.8 billion in 2024 [6]. - Major international companies like Diageo and Pernod Ricard are adjusting their performance forecasts due to tariff uncertainties, with Diageo canceling mid-term guidance and others lowering expectations [6]. - The article notes that the previous tariff disputes led to a significant drop in U.S. whiskey exports to the EU, with exports declining by over 20% [10]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Industry Challenges - The article discusses the adverse effects of tariffs on consumer prices, particularly for European wines, which could see price increases of nearly 30% due to added tariffs [13]. - The U.S. alcohol market is facing its first decline in nearly 30 years, with a 2% drop in sales in 2023, affecting various categories except for tequila, American whiskey, and ready-to-drink cocktails [18]. - Smaller distilleries in the U.S. are particularly vulnerable, with nearly 50 whiskey distilleries filing for bankruptcy in 2023 due to liquidity crises and debt pressures [19]. Group 4: Global Trends and Regional Variations - The article highlights that the global alcohol market is experiencing a significant shift, with the U.S. market showing a decline while Australian wine exports to China are rebounding after tariff removals [20][21]. - European alcohol producers are also struggling, with the Scottish whiskey industry facing export declines and some distilleries halting production in response to reduced demand [20]. - The overall sentiment in the alcohol industry is one of caution, with many producers and consumers adopting a wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainties created by tariffs and economic conditions [23].

Core Viewpoint - LVMH Moët Hennessy - Louis Vuitton's revenue report for the first quarter was weaker than expected, leading to a significant drop in its American depositary shares (ADS) price by over 6% [1][2]. Financial Performance - LVMH reported first-quarter revenue of just over 20.3 billion euros ($23.1 billion), which represents a 3% decline year-over-year and fell short of the consensus analyst estimate of $24.1 billion [2]. - The fashion and leather goods segment, the largest revenue contributor, experienced a 5% decline, generating $11.5 billion [3]. - Selective retailing saw a 1% decrease to $4.8 billion, while watches and jewelry showed a slight improvement, reaching under $2.8 billion [3]. Market Context - LVMH attributed the revenue decline to a "disrupted geopolitical and economic environment," with specific reference to the impact of last year's Chinese demand in Japan due to currency fluctuations [4]. - The current global trade conflict and a general pullback in consumer spending are negatively affecting luxury retailers, with no immediate positive drivers for LVMH's growth [5].

TVMH Q1 2025 revenue April 14, 2025 CD This document may contain certain forward looking statements which are based on estimations and forecasts. By their nature, these forward looking statements are subject to important risks and uncertainties and factors beyond our control or ability to predict, in particular those described in IVMF i Universal Registration Document which is available on the website (www.lymh.com). These forward looking statements should not be considered as a guarantee of future performa ...

LVMH集团：相信集团仍然拥有某些定价权。 ...

Louis Vuitton Moët Hennessy ( LVMHF ) ( OTCPK:LVMUY ) , is the world's leader in luxury goods. Founded in 1987 by merging fashion house Louis Vuitton with spirits company Moët Hennessy, LVMH spans over 75 prestigious brands across fashion, cosmetics, jewelry, and wines & spirits, including Dior, Dom Pérignon, Tiffany & Co., and Sephora. Hi! I'm a passionate investor who has been researching publically traded companies for over 6 years. My primary focus is on identifying great businesses at reasonable prices ...

Core Viewpoint - LVMH's stock has declined due to tariff concerns stemming from U.S. trade actions against Canada, Mexico, and China, with a notable drop of approximately 2.4% in a single day [1]. Group 1: Tariff Exposure - LVMH, as a global seller of luxury goods, faces potential risks from tariffs, particularly with China being a significant market for the company [2][3]. - The U.S. has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from China and 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, which has created uncertainty in global markets [2]. - The company is particularly vulnerable to price increases due to tariffs, as luxury products are non-essential and consumers can find substitutes [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - LVMH reported disappointing fourth-quarter earnings, with only 1% organic revenue growth, indicating challenges in China and the broader global economic environment [5]. - The company's revenue from Asia, excluding Japan, was substantial at 23.3 billion euros last year, highlighting its reliance on this market [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The company's fortunes are closely linked to the global economy, and a potential trade war could further challenge growth prospects, making 2025 a difficult year for LVMH [6].

Core Insights - LVMH's stock experienced a decline of over 2% following the release of its quarterly and annual results, contrasting with a nearly 1% rise in the S&P 500 [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, LVMH reported total revenue of 23.9 billion euros ($25.1 billion), which was essentially flat year over year [2] - For the entire year of 2024, LVMH's revenue was nearly 84.7 billion euros ($88.8 billion), down by 2% from 2023 [3] - The fashion and leather goods segment, the largest category, saw a 3% decline to slightly over 41 billion euros ($43 billion) for the year [3] - The wines and spirits segment experienced the most significant drop, with an 11% decrease to less than 5.8 billion euros ($6.1 billion) [3] - Profitability fell sharply, landing at under 12.6 billion euros ($13.2 billion), representing a 17% decline from the previous year [4] Market Sentiment - Analysts had anticipated steeper declines in revenue, but the reported figures were still not encouraging [5] - Despite the weaker performance, LVMH's CEO emphasized the company's resilience in a challenging environment, highlighting the strength of its strategy [5] - Investors are seeking growth and improvement beyond just meeting analyst projections, indicating a desire for increased sales and profitability [6]

Financial Performance - LVMH achieved a revenue of €84.7 billion in 2024, representing a +1% organic growth[5] - Profit from recurring operations reached €19.6 billion in 2024, a decrease of -14% compared to 2023[5] - The operating margin stood at 23.1%[33] - Net profit, Group share, was €12.55 billion[47] Segment Performance - Fashion & Leather Goods recorded revenue of €41.06 billion, a -1% organic change[41] - Wines & Spirits revenue was €5.862 billion, reflecting an -8% organic decrease[41] - Perfumes & Cosmetics achieved revenue of €8.418 billion, showing a +4% organic growth[41] - Watches & Jewelry recorded revenue of €10.577 billion, a -2% organic decrease[41] - Selective Retailing generated revenue of €18.262 billion, with a +6% organic growth[41] Regional Performance - Revenue distribution was balanced geographically, with Europe accounting for 25% and the United States also at 25%[36] - Japan experienced exceptional growth, representing 9% of revenue[36] - Asia (excluding Japan) accounted for 28% of revenue[36]

Core Insights - LVMH shares rose significantly following a strong earnings report from Richemont, indicating a potential recovery in the luxury sector [1][5] Group 1: Richemont's Performance - Richemont reported a 10% increase in third-quarter sales, reaching 6.2 billion euros ($6.4 billion), with double-digit growth across most regions [2][3] - Sales in the Asia-Pacific region fell by 7%, with a notable 18% decline in China, a critical market for luxury goods [3][4] - The jewelry segment saw a robust 14% increase, reflecting broad-based growth across product categories [3] Group 2: Implications for LVMH - LVMH has faced challenges, particularly in China, with organic revenue remaining flat through the first three quarters of 2024, partly due to an 8% decline in wines and spirits [4] - Despite differences in product focus, the luxury sector tends to move in tandem, suggesting that Richemont's positive results could benefit LVMH [4][5] - The overall sentiment indicates that a turnaround in the luxury sector is anticipated, which bodes well for LVMH [5]

Core Message - The US Surgeon General warns that alcohol consumption increases the risk of at least seven types of cancer, including breast, colorectal, esophageal, liver, oral, pharyngeal, and laryngeal cancers [1][2] - 16.4% of total breast cancer cases are attributable to alcohol consumption, and alcohol is blamed for 20,000 cancer deaths annually in the US [2] - Less than half of Americans recognize alcohol as a risk factor for cancer, prompting the Surgeon General to recommend warning labels on all types of alcoholic beverages [3] Impact on Alcohol Stocks - Shares of Boston Beer (SAM) fell 3.6%, Molson Coors (TAP) dropped 2.2%, and LVMH Moet Hennessy (LVMUY) declined 2.8% following the announcement [1] - Investors are selling off alcohol stocks due to the heightened risk of potential sales impact from cancer warning labels [4] - The recommendation for warning labels is not certain, as it would require an act of Congress and may not be pursued by the incoming Surgeon General under the Trump administration [5][6] Industry Perspective - Historical precedent shows that despite decades of warnings about tobacco's cancer risks, people continue to smoke, suggesting that cancer labels on alcohol may not significantly reduce consumption [7] - The current sell-off in alcohol stocks may present buying opportunities, with Molson Coors (TAP) highlighted as a potential value stock due to its price-to-earnings ratio of less than 13 and a 3% dividend yield [8]