本周，数十家跨国公司高管本周集体涌向华盛顿游说国会，试图阻止特朗普预算法案中一项可能重塑国 际资本流动格局的条款，警告这一措施将冲击数百万美国就业岗位。 6月9日，据报道，全球商业联盟主席Jonathan Samford透露，约70家公司的代表将于本周与国会议员 会面，第899条款将成为"核心议题"。 这一税收威胁已令该游说组织近200家在美外资企业感到不安， 其中包括壳牌、丰田、SAP和LVMH等巨头 。 数据显示这一担忧并非空穴来风： 外资银行在美国承销了70%以上的外国公司债务发行，占美元计价 债务发行总额的近三分之一 。 2023年，这些外资银行向美国公司放贷超过1.3万亿美元，其国际融资业务支撑了5.4万亿美元的外国直 接投资，创造了2700亿美元收入。 "希望第899条款不会被实施" 据悉， 这些外资企业在美国提供了840万个就业岗位，而第899条款的实施可能直接威胁到这一庞大的 就业基数 。 这场史无前例的游说攻势直指特朗普"大漂亮"税收法案中的第899条款——一个被外界视为"资本驱逐 令"的条文。该条款一旦获得国会批准，将允许美国对来自"税收政策惩罚性"国家的公司和投资者征收额 外税收。 税收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive approach to investment analysis, combining financial, technical, and macroeconomic factors to identify growth opportunities and mitigate risks for clients [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - The company, Meridian Wealth Management, is a registered investment advisory that focuses on providing tailored investment strategies to clients [1][3]. - The advisor utilizes various valuation methods and modeling techniques to assess the growth and value of companies, aiming to find winning investments for portfolio growth [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves analyzing a wide selection of funds and themes to identify both short-term trends and long-term opportunities [1]. - The advisor expresses a potential interest in initiating a long position in LVMUY, indicating a proactive approach to investment opportunities [2].

Core Insights - The luxury goods sector is experiencing a significant decline in sales, primarily due to the increasing unaffordability of iconic handbags, which have seen a 10%-33% decrease in affordability over the past decade [1][2] - Middle-income consumers are being priced out of the luxury market, leading to a shift towards more affordable brands like Coach, which reported a 15% same-store sales growth in the first quarter [1][5] - Major luxury brands are facing a growth bottleneck, with simultaneous declines in demand from consumers in China, Europe, and the U.S. for the first time in over 30 years [1][6] Affordability Trends - The price of luxury handbags has risen significantly compared to disposable income growth in the U.S. For instance, the Louis Vuitton Neverfull bag has seen an 8.5% annual compound growth rate in price, while disposable income has only increased by 4.5% [2][4] - Specific examples include: - Louis Vuitton Neverfull: Price increased 1.5 times relative to average disposable income over the past decade [4] - Dior Lady Dior: Price increased 1.1 times [4] - Chanel Classic Flap: Price increased 1.4 times [4] Market Dynamics - The shift in consumer purchasing power is creating opportunities for more price-competitive brands, as evidenced by the strong growth of brands like Coach [5] - The traditional growth model for luxury brands is under pressure, as relying solely on high-net-worth individuals is insufficient to sustain historical growth rates [6] - The luxury sector's strategy of raising prices during economic downturns, which previously worked, is no longer effective in the current market environment [6] Recovery Outlook - The recovery of affordability for luxury handbags is projected to take several years. For example, if prices grow at an average of 2% annually and disposable income continues to grow at 4.5%, it will take approximately 5 years for Dior and Louis Vuitton handbags to return to 2015 affordability levels, and 8 years for Chanel [7]

Group 1 - LVMH has observed a growing interest among Chinese consumers in local brands, particularly in the jewelry sector, with a significant surge in demand for Chinese gold jewelry companies [1] - LVMH's financial performance has faced challenges, with a projected revenue decline of 2% to €84.683 billion and a net profit drop of 17% to €12.25 billion for 2024, alongside underwhelming Q1 2025 results [1] - Lao Pu Gold has achieved remarkable sales performance in China, averaging sales of ¥328 million per store in 2024, ranking first in revenue and sales efficiency among all jewelry brands in the region [1] Group 2 - The unique cultural value and intangible heritage craftsmanship of Lao Pu Gold are attracting high-end Chinese consumers who previously favored international luxury brands [2] - Richemont Group's CEO acknowledged the competitive threat posed by Lao Pu Gold, highlighting its deep roots in Chinese culture and its impact on market vitality [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley has warned European luxury brands to closely examine the competitive threat from Lao Pu Gold, suggesting that its strong performance could disrupt the long-held perception that local competitors do not pose a threat [3]

Core Viewpoint - The luxury goods market is experiencing a significant downturn, with major brands like Chanel and LVMH reporting declines in sales and profits, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and a reevaluation of luxury items as investment assets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Richemont reported a 4% increase in revenue to €21.4 billion for the fiscal year 2025, but a 1% decline in operating profit to €3.76 billion, with the Asia-Pacific market suffering a 13% revenue drop, particularly in China where it fell by 23% [3]. - LVMH's revenue decreased by 2% to €84.683 billion, with net profit down 17% to €12.25 billion, while Kering's revenue fell by 12% to €17.194 billion and net profit dropped by 62% [3]. - Chanel's sales for 2024 were $18.7 billion, a 4.3% decrease year-on-year, with operating profit down 30% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The luxury goods market in China is projected to decline by 18%-20% in 2024, returning to 2020 levels, with leather goods expected to drop by 20%-25% [4]. - High-end commercial properties are also affected, with Beijing SKP's sales plummeting 17% to ¥22 billion, and other malls experiencing a 6% revenue decline [4]. - The second-hand luxury market is seeing increased demand as consumers seek value, with significant price drops reported in the resale of luxury items [7][9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more cautious, focusing on practicality and value rather than viewing luxury items as investment tools, with many preferring traditional investment options like ETFs and bank deposits [13][15]. - The perception of luxury goods as financial assets is shifting, with consumers recognizing the marketing illusion behind the idea of luxury items as reliable investments [15]. - The second-hand market is gaining traction, with consumers looking for high-value items at lower prices, and classic brands like Chanel and Hermes being viewed as more stable investments [10][14]. Group 4: Investment Shifts - The average annual price increase for Chanel's Classic Flap bag from 2015 to 2023 was 8.5%, while Hermes Birkin crocodile skin bags saw annual appreciation rates of 10%-15% [12][14]. - As traditional investment returns decline, gold is becoming a preferred investment choice among high-net-worth individuals, with 15.7% still considering it their top investment option [15].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential imposition of a 50% tariff on EU products by the U.S. starting June 1, as suggested by President Trump, citing unfair trade practices by the EU [1] - The EU has not yet commented on this new threat and is awaiting discussions between EU trade officials and U.S. representatives [1] - Following the announcement, European stock markets fell sharply, with major indices in the UK and Germany dropping over 1.5%, and luxury goods stocks like LVMH and Hermès declining more than 3% [1] Group 2 - The European luxury goods industry, which includes products like handbags and fashion, is highly sensitive to overseas markets, with the U.S. being a key growth area for the sector this year [2] - France and Italy are the largest exporters of luxury goods to the U.S., with the French luxury sector employing over 600,000 people [2] - Bernard Arnault, chairman of LVMH, emphasized the need for the EU to soften its stance on U.S. trade demands to avoid high tariffs and protect European jobs, as the U.S. market accounts for 25% of LVMH's annual sales [2] - Industry experts indicate that establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. to circumvent tariffs is currently impractical due to a lack of skilled labor and expertise [2] - A recent S&P report highlighted that the luxury goods sector is one of the most affected by U.S. tariffs, suggesting that price adjustments may be the primary method for companies to mitigate tariff impacts, although some brands may have limited pricing power due to consumer purchasing capacity [2]

Group 1 - LVMH has reportedly warned that the luxury goods market will continue to remain weak [1]

Group 1: Beer Industry Developments - Major beer companies are reducing workforce to control costs amid increasing competition in the industry [1][3] - Budweiser APAC reduced its workforce from approximately 25,000 in 2023 to over 21,000 in 2024, a decrease of about 4,000 employees or 16% [3] - Yanjing Beer and China Resources Beer also reported reductions of over 1,000 employees each, while Qingdao Beer cut more than 800 positions [3] Group 2: Wine Industry Events - The 5th China (Ningxia) International Wine Culture and Tourism Expo will be held from June 9 to 12, showcasing over 200 domestic and international wineries [5] - The expo will feature various activities, including a national wine industry skills competition and a cultural exhibition [5] Group 3: Labor Issues in Wine Sector - Workers at LVMH's champagne house went on strike on May 13, protesting salary and job security issues [7] - The wine and spirits division of LVMH is facing financial pressure, with a reported loss of €1.5 billion in 2024, contrasting with a cash flow of €1 billion in 2019 [7] Group 4: Leadership Changes - Treasury Wine Estates appointed Sam Fischer as the new CEO, with a compensation package including a fixed salary of AUD 1.73 million and a signing bonus of AUD 4 million [10][11] Group 5: Company Responses and Strategies - Luzhou Laojiao addressed concerns about halting orders, stating that it is maintaining normal supply channels and preparing for the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival [12][13] - Luzhou Laojiao plans to launch innovative products targeting younger consumers, including a collaboration with the sci-fi series "The Three-Body Problem" [12] Group 6: Share Buybacks and Financial Confidence - Kweichow Moutai announced a share buyback of 624,600 shares for a total of CNY 10.11 billion, completing two-thirds of its buyback plan [15] - The company plans to spend between CNY 3 billion and CNY 6 billion on share repurchases within the next 12 months [15] Group 7: Ningxia Wine Export Growth - Ningxia's wine exports reached CNY 13.75 million in 2024, supported by the development of 30 well-known wine import and export enterprises [17] - The brand value of Ningxia's Helan Mountain wine exceeded CNY 34 billion, ranking 8th in the regional brand value list [17]

Group 1 - The Paris Olympics is the first Olympic Games after the pandemic, with an open physical space that enhances the sense of participation for athletes and spectators [2] - The event has attracted 79 sponsors, with expected sponsorship revenue of $1.3 billion, surpassing the Tokyo Olympics in terms of sponsor numbers [2] - The sponsors are categorized into four tiers: global partners, premium partners, official partners, and official suppliers, with 15 global partners including two Chinese companies [6] Group 2 - Major Chinese brands are actively marketing during the Olympics, with significant advertising presence in Paris, such as Yili's ads featuring national table tennis team ambassadors [1][9] - Companies like Alibaba and Mengniu have secured long-term sponsorship deals with the International Olympic Committee, indicating a strategic investment in brand visibility [6] - The marketing costs for companies can be substantial, with global partners needing to pay at least $300 million in entry fees, not including additional marketing expenses [11] Group 3 - The effectiveness of Olympic sponsorship is highlighted by the potential for significant brand awareness increases, with a $20 million investment potentially raising brand recognition by 1% [11] - Companies are leveraging digital tools and offline promotions to maximize their marketing impact during the Olympics [11] - The competitive landscape for sponsorship is evolving, with some companies finding success through innovative marketing strategies even without official sponsorship status [12][15]

Group 1: Luxury Brands Entering the Restaurant Sector - Prada opened its first independent restaurant "迷上" in Shanghai, designed by renowned director Wong Kar-wai, blending Italian and Chinese culinary styles [1] - Other luxury brands like Gucci, Chanel, and Tiffany have previously explored the café sector in China, often as marketing strategies rather than standalone businesses [2] - The opening of "THE HALL" by Louis Vuitton in Chengdu marked a significant step for luxury brands in the full-service dining sector [2] Group 2: Operational Strategies and Market Trends - Many luxury dining projects are operated by third-party companies, indicating a reliance on specialized operators for successful execution [3] - Luxury brands aim to create experiential offerings that enhance customer engagement, with the goal of driving sales in their core product lines [3] - The shift in consumer behavior from shopping to experiential consumption is evident, necessitating adaptations in service models within the luxury sector [5] Group 3: Challenges in the Luxury Market - The luxury retail sector is facing challenges, with a reported 8% decline in retail rental income at Wynn Palace, reflecting a broader downturn in luxury consumption [6] - Despite an increase in tourist numbers and overall spending in Macau, per capita spending has significantly decreased, particularly among mainland Chinese tourists [6] - The luxury market may take several years to recover to pre-2019 levels, indicating a potential long-term shift in consumer preferences [6][7] Group 4: Changing Consumer Preferences - The luxury consumer landscape in China has evolved, with a notable decline in interest in traditional luxury brands like LVMH, as evidenced by a 2% drop in total revenue [7] - The emergence of alternative luxury offerings, such as local brands, suggests a shift in consumer loyalty and preferences away from established European luxury brands [7]