Stanley Druckenmiller was one of the most successful hedge fund managers in American history, earning an annual return of 30% over a three-decade period. He closed his hedge fund years ago but now manages his own money through Duquesne Family Office. That means investors can still follow his trades. Druckenmiller a few interesting capital allocation decisions in the fourth quarter. He sold his entire stake in Microsoft (MSFT -2.96%), which had been his largest holding just a year earlier. He also added to h ...

Despite the strong returns, the stock is trading at its lowest valuation in years. The company's revenue has grown faster than the share price over the last few years, which has brought its price-to-sales multiple down to 5 -- below its 10-year average multiple of 10. MercadoLibre is leading the e-commerce market across Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico. It offers an unbeatable group of services with a marketplace, mobile payment solutions, credit cards, merchant loans, and shipping. It has more than 100 millio ...

Core Insights - Mercado Libre is often referred to as the Amazon of Latin America due to its operation in similar categories [1] Company Overview - Mercado Libre operates in e-commerce and related sectors, positioning itself as a leading player in the Latin American market [1] Market Comparison - The company is compared to Amazon, highlighting its significant presence and influence in the region [1]

Group 1 - MercadoLibre experienced significant revenue and gross merchandise volume growth in the fourth fiscal quarter [1] - The growth is supported by strong customer acquisition momentum [1] - The e-Commerce platform is already highly profitable [1]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has experienced a 2% decline in early 2025, but the market remains volatile with notable winners and losers [1] - Three stocks have significantly outperformed in the first quarter of 2025, with one stock seeing a price increase of 40% [2] Company Performance - Redfin (RDFN) is the best-performing stock, up nearly 40% due to its acquisition by Rocket Companies (RKT), which aims to create an all-in-one real estate platform [3][4] - Rocket Companies originated over $100 billion in loan volume in 2024, indicating strong potential for synergies with Redfin's platform, which attracts about 50 million monthly visitors [4] - MercadoLibre (MELI) has seen a 27% increase in stock price, driven by a strong fourth-quarter earnings report that exceeded expectations [6] - In Q4, MercadoLibre's e-commerce marketplace sold 27% more items, and its payment platform, Mercado Pago, experienced a 33% increase in payment volume [6] - Sea Limited (SE) has gained 23% in 2025, following a remarkable 160% increase in 2024, with all business segments performing better than expected [8][9] - Sea's revenue grew by 39% in Q4, and the company generated $238 million in net income, a significant turnaround from a $112 million loss the previous year [10] Investment Strategy - The company is currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding Redfin, with no immediate plans to sell shares [11] - MercadoLibre remains the largest investment among the three stocks, with plans to continue adding to the position, especially during market fluctuations [13] - Sea Limited is on the watch list for potential future investments due to its impressive turnaround and growth prospects [12]

Core Insights - Louis Stevens is a highly regarded investment analyst with a background as a former U.S. Army engineer officer, holding an MBA and a BA in political science [1] - He has established L.A. Stevens Research, where he manages the LAS Index, a stock basket that has consistently outperformed market indices since its inception [2] Company Overview - L.A. Stevens Research utilizes a proprietary method for selecting stocks, contributing to its strong performance in the investment community [2] - The LAS Index is designed to cater to a diverse audience, including beginners, busy professionals, and experienced fund managers [2]

Company Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) is currently experiencing solid earnings estimate revisions, indicating a positive outlook from analysts for both short and long-term prospects [3][4]. - Over the past 60 days, earnings estimates for the current quarter have increased from $6.86 per share to $7.82 per share, and for the current year, estimates have risen from $43.76 per share to $47.50 per share [4]. Industry Analysis - The Retail-Wholesale sector, where MercadoLibre operates, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 72 out of 247 industries, suggesting it is well-positioned compared to other segments [2]. - The overall positive trends in the Retail-Wholesale space may benefit companies within the industry, including MercadoLibre, as a rising tide can lift all boats [2].

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) shares have returned 32.9% over the past 12 months, outperforming the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry's growth of 11% and 19.3% respectively [1] - The company has achieved significant milestones in 2024, surpassing 100 million unique buyers and reaching 60 million fintech monthly active users for the first time [2] Investment Plans - MercadoLibre plans to invest $3.4 billion in Mexico in 2025, a 38% increase from the previous year, to enhance technology, logistics, and fintech operations [5] - This investment is expected to strengthen the company's top line by driving higher transaction volumes and improving delivery efficiency [6] Competitive Strategies - MercadoLibre faces rising competition from Amazon and Walmart in Latin America, particularly in Mexico [7] - To counter competition, the company is investing in innovation, enhancing user interface, expanding free shipping, and optimizing inventory supply [8] - The company is also strengthening its advertising business to improve monetization and product visibility [9] Fintech Performance - In 2024, MELI's credit portfolio expanded 74% year-over-year to $6.6 billion, with the credit card segment growing 118% [10] - Assets under management grew 129% to $10.6 billion, driven by the success of the company's yielding account [10] - The company is actively managing credit risk amid rising interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainties [11] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q1 2025 earnings is $7.82 per share, revised upward by 13.9%, indicating 15.34% year-over-year growth [12] - The consensus for 2025 earnings is $47.50 per share, up 8%, suggesting 26.03% year-over-year growth [12] Stock Performance - MELI's shares are trading above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend [13] - The forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 3.85 exceeds the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry average of 2.09, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth potential [15] Future Growth Prospects - The company plans to double its fulfillment centers in Brazil by the end of 2025 and increase same-day delivery capabilities by 40% [17] - MELI is targeting lower-risk customers with larger credit lines to expand market reach, indicating strong long-term growth prospects [17]

Core Insights - Billionaire Stan Druckenmiller, known for his investments in Nvidia, has fully sold his position in the company and is now investing in Amazon and MercadoLibre, which he views as strong long-term opportunities [2][3]. Group 1: Amazon - At the end of Q4 2024, Amazon constituted approximately 2% of Druckenmiller's U.S.-listed investments, benefiting from the AI boom and trading at a lower valuation compared to Nvidia [3][5]. - Amazon Web Services (AWS) reported a 19% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $28.8 billion in Q4, with a 37% operating margin over the last 12 months [3][4]. - The North American operating margin for Amazon's e-commerce division has improved to 6.4%, up from nearly zero a few years ago, indicating significant profit growth potential [4][6]. - Amazon's stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35, its lowest in five years, with a consolidated operating margin of 11% in 2024 and an 11% revenue growth compared to 2023 [5][6]. Group 2: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre represents a larger portion of Druckenmiller's portfolio at 2.45%, showing strong performance in Latin America, particularly in markets like Mexico [7]. - The company's commerce division experienced a remarkable 44% growth in Q4 2024, with a staggering 3,430% revenue increase over the past decade [8][11]. - MercadoLibre's fintech division, driven by the MercadoPago app, saw a 29% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4, with 61.2 million monthly active users, reflecting a 34% increase from the previous year [9][10]. - With total revenue of $21 billion compared to Amazon's $638 billion, MercadoLibre has significant growth potential in the underpenetrated Latin American e-commerce market [11][12]. - Despite a high P/E ratio of 53, long-term investors like Druckenmiller recognize that durable growth can lead to a rapid decrease in P/E over time [12].

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 is currently down in 2025, presenting a potential buying opportunity as economic uncertainty drives investor fear [1] - Despite market conditions, many companies are performing well and have significant growth opportunities [1] Group 2: MercadoLibre - MercadoLibre stock has increased by 41% over the past year and is the only stock on the list that is up in 2025 [3] - The company operates an e-commerce platform in Latin America, which is still underpenetrated at about 13% compared to 24% in the U.S., benefiting from a growing customer base [4] - Revenue for MercadoLibre increased by 96% year over year in Q4 2024, with gross merchandise volume (GMV) up 56% [4] - The company has developed a fintech infrastructure that supports digital payments, with total payment volume increasing by 49% year over year in Q4 [6] - MercadoLibre is the leading fintech company in three of its four largest markets by monthly active users [6] - The company is positioned for significant growth as it drives a digital revolution in its region [7] Group 3: Shopify - Shopify stock has risen by 25% over the past year, with strong growth and increasing profitability [8] - The company has expanded beyond e-commerce websites to become a full commerce platform, with most sales now coming from payment processing [9] - International sales grew by 33% year over year in 2024, accounting for 30% of total revenue [10] - Shopify has reported seven consecutive quarters of revenue growth of at least 25%, with a free-cash-flow margin reaching 22% in Q4 [11] - The company has substantial long-term opportunities and is rolling out more services in international markets [10][11] Group 4: On Holding - On Holding stock has increased by 45% over the past year, recognized for its unique sneaker soles and growing brand presence [12] - The company reported a 41% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4 2024, driven by a 48% rise in direct-to-consumer sales [14] - On's gross margin expanded from 60.4% to 62.1% year over year in Q4, with net income increasing by 435% [14] - The management has a four-pillar strategy focused on brand awareness, omnichannel strategy, product assortment expansion, and operational efficiency [15]