Core Points - Aurubis Capital Market Day 2025 is being held, indicating the company's ongoing engagement with investors and stakeholders [1][2] - Ken Nagayama, who has been with Aurubis for 17 years, is now heading the Investor Relations department, showcasing leadership continuity within the company [1][2] Organizational Remarks - Safety protocols are emphasized for the event, indicating the company's commitment to participant safety during gatherings [3]

It can be pretty tough to predict when the next share split will be for any given name. ...

Core Insights - MercadoLibre's lending growth is outpacing profitability, raising concerns about margin stability [1] - The company's credit volume surged 91% year-over-year to $9.3 billion, with credit cards making up 43% of the loan book [2][8] - Net Interest Margin After Losses decreased to 23% from 31.1% a year ago, indicating pressure on profitability [2] - High levels of loans over 90 days past due at 18.5% suggest ongoing credit quality issues [3][8] - Increased competition from Sea Limited and Nu Holdings in the fintech space is likely to intensify pressure on lending margins [5] Lending Growth and Financial Metrics - Total credit volume increased by 91% year-over-year to $9.3 billion, driven by a 118% rise in credit card usage [2][8] - Fintech revenues grew 30% year-over-year to $2.95 billion, reflecting strong lending momentum but also highlighting efficiency challenges [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 fintech revenue is projected at $3.23 billion, indicating a 27% year-over-year increase [2] Credit Quality and Risk Factors - Provisioning and funding costs are expected to rise faster than income, putting operating leverage at risk [3][4] - New credit card cohorts typically take several quarters to reach breakeven, maintaining pressure on returns during rapid issuance [3] - The combination of higher reserves, slower cohort profitability, and elevated funding needs could keep margins under pressure [4] Competitive Landscape - MercadoLibre faces increasing competition from Sea Limited and Nu Holdings in digital lending and credit services across Latin America [5] - Sea Limited is expanding personal loans and payment products in Brazil and Mexico, overlapping with MercadoLibre's offerings [5] - Nu Holdings is leveraging its customer base and data-driven underwriting to accelerate credit card and consumer lending growth [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - MELI shares have increased 26.7% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry and the Retail-Wholesale sector [6] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 3.27X, compared to the industry's 2.23X [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MELI's third-quarter 2025 earnings is $9.88 per share, indicating a 26.18% year-over-year growth [13]

Group 1: OpenAI Valuation and Industry Context - OpenAI has reached a valuation of $500 billion, making it the largest private company, up from $300 billion a few months ago [1] - This rapid valuation growth is notable as it took Microsoft 40 years to reach a similar valuation, while OpenAI achieved it in just 10 years [2] - OpenAI's founder, Sam Altman, projects a need for 250 gigawatts of electricity by 2033 to power its data centers, which is significantly higher than the largest nuclear power plant's output [2][3] Group 2: Berkshire Hathaway's Acquisition - Berkshire Hathaway is acquiring Occidental Petroleum's petrochemical unit OxyChem for approximately $9.7 billion, which represents about 1% of Berkshire's market cap [4][6] - Berkshire already owned about 27% of Occidental, making this acquisition more of a strategic move rather than a significant cash outflow [5] - The acquisition is seen as beneficial for both Berkshire and Occidental, allowing Occidental to buy back stock and reduce debt [6] Group 3: Government Shutdown Impact - The current government shutdown has not significantly affected the stock market, with the NASDAQ remaining flat and the S&P 500 down only slightly [8] - Historically, the average return of the S&P 500 12 months after a government shutdown is around 12%, indicating that such events may not have long-term negative effects [11] - Companies that rely heavily on government contracts may be more vulnerable to the shutdown's impacts, but the general market sentiment appears to be calm [9][10] Group 4: Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) Developments - Fair Isaac Corp's stock surged 24% following the announcement of a direct license program that allows mortgage originators to calculate and distribute FICO scores directly [11][12] - This move is expected to enhance FICO's margins and competitiveness against credit bureaus like Equifax and Experian, whose stocks fell in response [15] - FICO has historically performed well, with a 2,000% increase in stock value over the past decade, compared to 250% for the S&P 500 [12][13] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Mercado Libre is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity due to its significant growth potential in Brazil, where it has around 40 million active buyers [18] - Etsy is also noted for its recent partnership with OpenAI to enhance customer engagement through AI-powered shopping features [19] - Curtiss-Wright is identified as a company that could benefit from the renewed interest in nuclear power, supplying essential components for nuclear reactors [21]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre is increasingly recognized as a complex entity rather than just the "Amazon" of Latin America, with strong growth but rising risks [1][2][16] Growth Performance - In Q2 2025, MercadoLibre's net revenue increased by 34% year-over-year to $6.8 billion, driven by nearly 37% growth in gross merchandise value (GMV) on a forex-neutral basis [3] - The company has over 71 million unique buyers, marking a 25% increase from the previous year [3] - The fintech segment, Mercado Pago, saw its credit portfolio grow by 91% year-over-year to $9.3 billion, with monthly active users reaching 68 million [4] Investment Strategy - MercadoLibre plans to invest approximately $13 billion in 2025, focusing on logistics, technology upgrades, and payment infrastructure in key markets like Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina [6] - These investments are crucial for long-term competitiveness but will increase short-term costs and exposure to macroeconomic volatility [7] Profitability Challenges - Profitability faced challenges in Q2 2025, with net income at $523 million and operating margin declining to 12.2% from 14.3% a year earlier [8] - Increased shipping costs and a reduction in the free-shipping threshold from 79 reais to 19 reais contributed to margin pressure [9][10] Competitive Landscape - MercadoLibre faces intensified competition, particularly from Shopee and Temu, which have adopted aggressive pricing strategies [13] - Nubank is also expanding in digital finance, posing a challenge to Mercado Pago's market position [13] Market Environment - Latin America presents additional complexities, including inflation, currency fluctuations, and political instability, particularly affecting the Argentine peso [12] - Despite these challenges, the vast market offers opportunities for multiple players to thrive [14] Investment Outlook - MercadoLibre remains a solid growth stock, but execution risk has become more pronounced, necessitating close monitoring of performance [15][16] - The potential for growth in e-commerce and digital payments in Latin America remains significant, supported by the company's strong competitive advantages [17]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre (MELI) shares have declined 13% over the past three months, underperforming the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the Zacks Internet-Commerce industry's growth of 3.4% and 5.7% respectively [1][9] Financial Performance - MELI's fintech arm, Mercado Pago, saw revenues jump 40% year over year in Q2 2025 to $2.95 billion, while commerce revenue grew 22% [5] - Total payment volume increased 39% to $64.6 billion, and the credit portfolio surged 91% year over year to $9.3 billion, raising concerns about asset quality [5][6] - Non-performing loans over 90 days remained high at 18.5%, and net interest margin after losses fell to 23% from 31.1% year over year [6] Competitive Landscape - Rising competition from Amazon, Sea Limited, and eBay is testing MELI's leadership in Latin America [10][12] - Amazon is expanding its logistics and delivery network, while Sea Limited's Shopee platform is gaining traction through discounts and gamified engagement [10][11] - eBay's expansion of its cross-border marketplace is drawing merchants away from MELI, intensifying competition [12] Geographic Concentration - MELI earns over 90% of its revenues from Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, making it vulnerable to regional volatility and currency shocks [9][13] - In Brazil, FX-neutral gross merchandise volume grew 29% year over year in Q2 2025, while revenues for Q3 2025 are estimated at $3.62 billion, up 17.4% year over year [14] - Argentina's economic struggles led to a $117 million foreign-exchange loss in Q2 2025, impacting profitability [15] Valuation and Outlook - MELI's forward P/E stands at 36.63X, significantly above the industry average of 24.74X and the broader Retail-Wholesale sector's 24.9X, indicating a premium valuation [9][16] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q3 2025 earnings is pegged at $9.88 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 26.18% [19] - Despite top-line growth, profitability pressures and an overstretched valuation make the stock unattractive at current levels, justifying a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) [21]

Core Viewpoint - US stocks have experienced significant growth, leading to a strong third quarter, prompting investors to explore opportunities in international and emerging markets, which have shown a rebound, particularly in technology sectors [1][2]. Emerging Markets Overview - Emerging markets, particularly in technology, are gaining investor interest after a long period of underperformance compared to the US market [4][19]. - The EMQQ ETF, which tracks emerging market technology companies, has risen approximately 34% this year, indicating a shift in investor focus [1][19]. Latin America Insights - Latin America is highlighted as a key area of growth, with companies like Marcato Libre and New Bank leading the charge [5][8]. - Marcato Libre is recognized as the largest and best-performing company in Latin America, likened to Amazon for its extensive e-commerce and financial services [8][9]. Consumer Growth in Emerging Markets - The rise of 6.5 billion new consumers in emerging markets, particularly through the adoption of affordable smartphones and internet access, is seen as a major growth driver [6][7]. - Latin America's population of 650 million is noted for its relatively higher GDP compared to other emerging regions, positioning it as a more developed market [7]. Political and Governance Considerations - Despite political instability in regions like Argentina and Brazil, the rapid adoption of technology and online services is expected to mitigate some risks associated with governance issues [10][11]. - Emerging market internet companies are viewed as having higher corporate governance standards, which may provide a safer investment avenue compared to traditional emerging market indexes [12][13]. India as a Growth Opportunity - India is identified as a significant opportunity within emerging markets, boasting the largest population and favorable demographics that drive consumption [14][16]. - The digitization of India's financial system and the availability of low-cost smartphones are seen as catalysts for growth in internet companies [15][16]. Future Outlook - There is a strong belief in continued growth in the emerging markets internet sector over the next 3 to 5 years, with increasing investor interest noted [18][19]. - Despite a historical underperformance, the momentum for emerging markets is expected to persist, with a notable increase in ETF flows this year [20][21]. Chinese Market Dynamics - Chinese internet companies have experienced volatility but are recognized for their profitability and advancements in AI, suggesting potential for future growth despite past challenges [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The price per share of MercadoLibre does not accurately reflect its value, and it is considered a bargain for long-term investors despite its high trading price [1][2]. Company Overview - MercadoLibre has experienced significant growth, with its stock price increasing over 7,000% since its IPO nearly 20 years ago [3]. - The company is currently led by CEO and co-founder Marcos Galperin, who will step down in 2025, raising concerns about leadership transition [3][4]. Financial Performance - MercadoLibre's net profit margin decreased from 10.5% in Q2 2024 to 7.7% in Q2 2025, resulting in an estimated loss of $200 million in that quarter [5]. - The decline in profit margins is attributed to changes in exchange rates and adjustments in the cost structure of its e-commerce marketplace [7][8]. Management Stability - The new CEO, Ariel Szarfsztejn, has a history with MercadoLibre, which may provide stability during the transition [6]. - Concerns regarding the leadership change are deemed premature, as the company has a solid foundation [6]. Growth Potential - MercadoLibre is focused on increasing product and service adoption through investments in logistics, financial services, and credit offerings [9]. - The company has approximately 71 million active buyers, with a significant portion of commerce revenue coming from Brazil, indicating room for growth [10]. Advertising Revenue - The emerging advertising business could offset losses from profit margin contractions, suggesting a strategic move that may benefit the company in the long run [11]. Valuation - MercadoLibre's stock is currently trading at less than 5 times its sales, which is considered an attractive valuation for potential investors [11]. - Despite the recent contraction in profit margins, the company remains profitable and is expected to continue growing [13].

Core Insights - Mercadolibre (MELI) has become a focal point amid recent market volatility, with its stock price dropping by 3.29% on October 3 [1] - The decline in Mercadolibre's stock price is influenced by eBay's announcement to sell 5.5 million shares, expected to raise over $1 billion, which increases market supply pressure [1] - Despite recent fluctuations, Mercadolibre's stock has risen by 39.96% since the beginning of the year, prompting investors to reassess the stock's value [1] Market Dynamics - eBay's share sale eliminates any potential acquisition premium, contributing significantly to the stock price decline [1] - The strong upward trend in Mercadolibre's stock typically leads to natural price corrections as investors reevaluate the company's value [1] - Broader economic data, industry trends, and global events continue to impact stock price volatility [1] Investor Considerations - Investors are advised to remain calm in the face of short-term market instability caused by the recent share sale [1] - The stock price correction may not indicate a deterioration in the company's fundamentals but rather a reassessment of its intrinsic value [1] - Monitoring the company's financial reports and industry dynamics is essential for identifying potential positive factors [1]

Core Insights - MercadoLibre is experiencing a 10% decline in stock value due to increased competition from Amazon in Brazil, its largest market [1][2] - Amazon's aggressive strategy includes waiving logistics fees and take rates for new Brazilian merchants during the holiday season [2] - Despite the competition, MercadoLibre's strong logistical network and diverse fintech solutions position it well in the market [4][5] Competitive Landscape - Amazon is expanding aggressively in Brazil, but it is still considered an underdog compared to its dominance in the U.S. [3] - MercadoLibre has a robust ecosystem that includes e-commerce and fintech, making it difficult for competitors to disrupt its business [4][5] - Other competitors like Walmart, Costco, Sea Limited's Shopee, and Chinese companies such as Shein and PDD Holding's Temu are also entering the Latin American market [6][7] Market Potential - Latin America is viewed as a promising growth area for e-commerce, indicating that competition will continue to intensify [5] - MercadoLibre has shown significant growth over the past decade, being described as a "24-bagger," highlighting its potential for future growth [5]