证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 06 月 16 日 社零数据点评 5 月社零同比+6.4%，大促提前社零及电商增速环比提升 消费品/商业 2025 年 5 月社会消费品零售总额为 41326 亿元，当月同比+6.4%；实物商品网 上零售额当月同比+8.2%。5 月社零及电商大盘增速环比 6 月进一步提升，主要 受益于 618 大促提前商品零售增速改善，其中国补持续刺激消费驱动下家电及 通讯类目增速继续提升领跑行业。618 收官在即，关注质地好、业绩佳、回购 高、估值低的消费互联网龙头公司。 ❑风险提示：宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 132 | 2.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1163.4 | 1.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1070.5 | 1.4 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.6 | -5.6 | 43.4 | | 相对表现 | 4.4 | -3.8 | 33.8 | ...

Core Insights - The e-commerce market in Uzbekistan is experiencing a significant transformation, with Uzum, the largest local platform, predicting a fivefold revenue increase by 2027 [1] - The e-commerce sector has shown an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 122% in recent years, with expectations of maintaining over 40% annual growth in the coming years [1] - The penetration rate of online shopping has surged from 1%-2% in 2020 to 7%-8% in 2023, indicating substantial growth potential compared to China's over 64% [1] Market Dynamics - Uzum's product variety has recently surpassed one million, while Chinese platforms had significantly higher SKU counts a decade ago, highlighting the growth trajectory of Uzbekistan's e-commerce [1] - The high-profit margins in Uzbekistan's e-commerce sector are notable, with some products priced significantly higher than in China, creating a lucrative environment for local entrepreneurs [3] - Entrepreneurs in sectors like baby products and small appliances report gross margins exceeding 100%, with net margins around 50%, showcasing the profitability of the market [3] Historical Context - The e-commerce landscape in Uzbekistan faced challenges from 2017 to 2020, with limited success from local supermarkets and competition from Russian platforms hindered by inefficient logistics and payment systems [3] - The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a catalyst for e-commerce growth, allowing Uzum to leverage existing infrastructure and improve payment success rates significantly [3] Competitive Landscape - Uzum is actively enhancing its logistics, developing price monitoring tools, and implementing policies to attract Russian sellers, aiming to expand its product offerings and market share [5] - New entrants like Yandex and Temu are emerging, with Yandex targeting the high-end market and Temu employing aggressive strategies to penetrate the market [5] Future Outlook - Local entrepreneurs express optimism about Uzum's future, emphasizing the importance of leveraging Chinese supply chain experience to capture market opportunities [7] - The potential for long-term value lies in aligning product offerings with local consumer preferences, as there is a demand for better choices in the market [7]

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2025 年 5 月 20 日 互联网行业月报 国补持续拉动 4 月电商平稳增长；1 季报超预期 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 5/24 9/24 1/25 5/25 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5330 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5332 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5334 估值概要 | | FactSet( | 未评级为一致预测 | ) | ，交银国际预测 | 覆盖公司 ( ) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资料来源： | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...