Investment Rating - Maintain OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of USD 25.20 [1] - Current price is USD 20.01 as of November 29, 2024 [1] - Market capitalization stands at USD 6.25 billion [1] Core Views - The company has passed its trough, and the positive guidance reflects management's confidence [1] - Domestic revenue for the Miniso brand grew by 6% YoY, reaching RMB 2.44 billion [1] - Overseas revenue surged by 40% YoY to RMB 1.81 billion, with 183 net new stores added QoQ [1] - The company expects Q4 revenue growth of 25%-30%, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached RMB 4.52 billion, up 19% YoY [1] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 686 million, a 7% YoY increase, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.2% [1] - Gross profit margin hit a record high of 44.9%, up 3.1 percentage points YoY [1] - Sales and distribution expense ratio increased to 22%, primarily due to higher costs associated with directly operated stores [1] Domestic Operations - Domestic revenue grew by 9% YoY to RMB 2.71 billion [1] - The company added 135 net new stores in Q3, bringing the total to 4,250 stores in China [1] - O2O business grew nearly 80% YoY, contributing 7%-8% of domestic revenue [1] - TOPTOY, the company's sub-brand, achieved a 50% YoY revenue growth and has been profitable for four consecutive quarters [1] International Expansion - Overseas revenue grew by 40% YoY, with 183 net new stores added in Q3 [1] - The company raised its 2024 store opening guidance to 650-700 stores, up from the previous 550-650 [1] - North American operations have stabilized, with cost structure optimization underway [1] - Local sourcing in the US has reached 30%, with further room for improvement [1] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue for 2024-26 is projected to be RMB 17.2/21.6/25.6 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 2.80/3.53/4.23 billion [1] - The company is valued at 20x 2024 PE, with a target price of USD 25.2 [1] - Q4 revenue is expected to grow by 29% YoY to RMB 4.94 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 880 million [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on O2O, IP-driven products, and precise marketing to boost same-store sales [1] - A new store matrix strategy, including MINISO Land and flagship stores, has been introduced to cater to different customer segments [1] - The acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Superstores is progressing as expected, with the deal set to close in Q1 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [2][10] Core Views - The company is experiencing sustained high growth overseas, driven by its IP strategy and "Guzi Economy" which enhances its influence [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.523 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 642 million yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 12.281 billion yuan, a 22.8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.812 billion yuan, a 12.0% increase year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 47.98 billion HKD and a closing price of 38.70 HKD as of November 29, 2024 [4] - The company plans to add 900-1100 new stores in 2024, with a total of 7186 stores as of Q3 2024, reflecting a net increase of 1071 stores year-on-year [5] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 44.1%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] Store Expansion and Strategy - The company has expanded its store network significantly, with 4250 stores in mainland China and 2936 stores overseas as of Q3 2024 [5] - The IP strategy has led to collaborations with over 150 IPs globally, enhancing product differentiation and customer engagement [7] - The company announced a cash dividend of 620 million yuan, representing about 50% of its adjusted net profit for H1 2024, along with a share buyback plan of up to 2 billion HKD [7] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 17.18 billion yuan, 20.76 billion yuan, and 23.83 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.828 billion yuan, 3.531 billion yuan, and 4.220 billion yuan [8]

证券时报网讯，美股三大指数小幅高开，纳指涨0.19%，道指涨0.03%，标普500指数涨0.14%。 超微电脑涨超15%，超微电脑完成独立特别委员会的审查，独立特别委员会未发现任何不当行为的证 据。 热门中概股多数上涨，金山云、名创优品涨超14%，小鹏汽车涨超5%。 校对：彭其华 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Miniso (9896.HK) based on its strong performance and positive outlook for Q4 sales [1]. Core Views - Miniso's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 4.523 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, with adjusted net profit of 686 million RMB, up 6.9% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from robust sales performance in both domestic and overseas markets during the peak season in Q4 2024 [1]. - The report highlights the steady growth in the Chinese mainland market and the rapid expansion in overseas markets, with a significant increase in revenue from international operations [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, Miniso achieved total revenue of 12.281 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with adjusted net profit of 1.928 billion RMB, up 13.7% [1]. - Revenue breakdown shows that the Chinese mainland and overseas markets generated 7.738 billion RMB and 4.543 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 14% and 41% [1]. Market Expansion - As of September 30, 2024, Miniso had a total of 4,250 stores in the Chinese mainland, with a net increase of 324 stores in Q1-Q3 2024 [1]. - The overseas market saw a revenue increase of 41.5%, with a total of 2,936 stores, reflecting a net increase of 449 stores [1]. Product and Brand Development - The company is deepening collaborations with top global IPs such as Disney and Warner Bros, launching a range of co-branded products, including those featuring the Harry Potter franchise [1]. - Top Toy brand also showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 42.5% in Q1-Q3 2024, and the first overseas store opened in Bangkok, Thailand [1]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved to 44.1%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in high-margin product sales and the contribution from Top Toy [1]. - Selling and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue increased to 20.51% and 5.33%, respectively, reflecting the costs associated with store expansion [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) [1][7] Core Views - MINISO's domestic business shows a steady increase in average transaction value, with gross margin continuing to improve in Q3 2024 compared to previous quarters [1][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 12.281 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.928 billion yuan, up 13.7% year-on-year [1][3] Summary by Sections Company Performance - For Q3 2024, MINISO reported a revenue of 4.523 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, with domestic revenue growing by 8.7% and overseas revenue by 39.8% [3][6] - The company has opened 324 new stores in China, bringing the total to 4,250 stores by the end of Q3 2024 [3][6] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 44.1%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 44.9%, up 3.1 percentage points [6][7] - The adjusted net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 15.7%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a net increase of 900-1100 stores in 2024, with a revenue growth target of 20%-30% year-on-year [7][9] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 17.349 billion, 21.166 billion, and 25.418 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.828 billion, 3.452 billion, and 4.135 billion yuan [7][9]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 12.28 billion yuan in 2024Q1-3, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with Non-IFRS net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, up 13.7% year-on-year [2] - In 2024Q3, the company's revenue was 4.52 billion yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year, and Non-IFRS net profit was 686 million yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year [2] - Domestic MINISO revenue in 2024Q3 was 2.44 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year, with 135 new stores opened, bringing the total to 4,250 stores [2] - Overseas market revenue in 2024Q3 was 1.81 billion yuan, up 39.8% year-on-year, with 183 new stores opened, bringing the total to 2,936 stores [3] - TOP TOY brand revenue in 2024Q3 was 270 million yuan, up 50.1% year-on-year, with 39 new stores opened, bringing the total to 234 stores [3] - The company expects 2024Q4 revenue to grow 20-25% year-on-year, with overseas MINISO revenue growing 45-50% year-on-year, and TOP TOY maintaining a growth rate of over 50% [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 17.14 billion yuan, up 23.87% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.53 billion yuan, up 12.24% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2024E is projected at 2.80 billion yuan, up 18.77% year-on-year [1] - EPS for 2024E is projected at 2.01 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 17.73 [1] - Revenue for 2025E is projected at 20.33 billion yuan, up 18.59% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.01 billion yuan, up 18.86% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2025E is projected at 3.24 billion yuan, up 15.61% year-on-year [1] - EPS for 2025E is projected at 2.39 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 14.92 [1] Key Financial Ratios - ROE for 2024E is projected at 24.58%, with a gross margin of 44.83% and a net profit margin of 14.75% [12] - ROE for 2025E is projected at 26.07%, with a gross margin of 46.44% and a net profit margin of 14.79% [12] - ROE for 2026E is projected at 26.56%, with a gross margin of 47.25% and a net profit margin of 14.66% [12] - P/B ratio for 2024E is projected at 4.34, with an EV/EBITDA of 11.21 [12] - P/B ratio for 2025E is projected at 3.86, with an EV/EBITDA of 10.41 [12] - P/B ratio for 2026E is projected at 3.43, with an EV/EBITDA of 8.64 [12] Market Data - Closing price as of the report date is 38.70 HKD [6] - The company's market capitalization is 48.62 billion HKD [6] - The P/B ratio is 5.12, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 40.72% [6]

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The conference call discusses the financial performance of Miniso Group for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting its growth and strategic initiatives in both domestic and international markets [1][11]. Key Points Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue reached 12.28 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% [2][11]. - The average store count increased by 14.7%, contributing to a 12.3% revenue growth from offline stores and a 19% growth from e-commerce [4][11]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to maintain a minimum of 50% for dividends, with ongoing share buybacks to provide predictable returns [4][11]. Store Expansion - The company aims to open between 350 to 450 new stores in 2024, with a focus on first and second-tier cities, which account for 60% of new openings [5][20]. - The total number of stores reached 859, with significant growth in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. and India [2][8]. International Market Growth - Overseas revenue surpassed 4.5 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 41% [7][12]. - The overseas direct sales market contributed 2.45 billion RMB, growing by 64%, while the overseas agency market grew by 22% [12]. - The company expects to open 650 to 700 new overseas stores by the end of the year, exceeding previous estimates [8][20]. Consumer Trends and Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on quality retail and interest-based consumption, emphasizing product innovation and consumer experience [2][3]. - There is a strong emphasis on IP (Intellectual Property) collaboration, with successful partnerships with brands like Disney and Harry Potter, which have significantly boosted sales [6][31]. Cost Management and Profitability - Sales and management expenses increased by 54%, with sales expenses rising by 63% due to new store openings [13][16]. - The gross margin improved by 3.7 percentage points to 44.1% compared to the previous year [12][16]. - The company maintains a low debt ratio of less than 1%, ensuring ample cash reserves for future investments [16][17]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a low teens growth rate in domestic sales for Q4, despite challenges in the retail environment [20][37]. - The management is optimistic about the U.S. market's performance and plans to enhance operational efficiency through localized management teams [22][38]. - The focus will remain on expanding the IP product line and enhancing the consumer experience through innovative store formats and product offerings [29][31]. Additional Insights - The company is actively exploring flexible store operation models, including potential franchise opportunities to accelerate growth in overseas markets [39]. - The emphasis on O2O (Online to Offline) business has shown significant growth, with a nearly 80% increase year-on-year [30]. Conclusion - Miniso Group is strategically positioned for growth through its multi-brand approach, international expansion, and focus on consumer trends. The company is committed to maintaining profitability while navigating the challenges of the retail landscape.

证券研究报告 名创优品 (9896 HK) 港股通 Q3 海外拓展加速，IP 战略持续显效 华泰研究 季报点评 2024 年 12 月 01 日│中国香港 零售 公司发布 24Q3 季报，三季度营收同增 19.3%至 45.2 亿元，其中国内 Miniso/ 海外 Miniso/Top Toy 分别同增 5.7%/39.8%/50.4%，海外得益于 IP 战略、 拓店加速、海运扰动缓解等，延续快速成长。经调整净利同增 6.9%至 6.9 亿元，受国内同店承压、海外直营店投入的拖累。我们认为上述不利因素均 有望在 Q4 缓解，叠加哈利波特等热门 IP 及海外旺季推动，看好 Q4 业绩增 速及利润率边际向好，以及中长期公司在 IP 战略赋能下的全球拓展前景。 海外市场及 Top Toy 增势亮眼，拓店环比加速 Q3 分业务看：1）国内 Miniso 营收同增 5.7%，受宏观环境及高基数拖累， 其中客流下降近 6%，客单价同比微增，IP 战略下高线城市客单价表现更优。 2）海外 Miniso 营收同增 39.8%，其中直营市场同增 55.4%，美国及印尼 市场重点发力；代理市场同增 26.5%，得益于 IP 策略 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating with a current price of HKD 38 70 [3] Core Views - Overseas and TOP TOY segments performed strongly with steady gross margin improvement and deepening IP strategy [2] - Revenue for 24Q1-3 reached RMB 12 281 billion yoy +22 8% with adjusted net profit of RMB 1 928 billion yoy +13 7% [4] - Overseas same-store sales showed high single-digit growth while TOP TOY achieved profitability for four consecutive quarters [4] - Gross margin improved to 44 1% in 24Q1-3 yoy +3 7pct driven by IP strategy and product mix optimization [4] - Sales expense ratio increased due to expansion of directly operated stores particularly in strategic overseas markets like the US [4] - The company is accelerating store expansion with 7 186 MINISO stores and 234 TOP TOY stores as of September 30 2024 [4] - IP strategy continues to expand with over 100 global IP collaborations and the launch of MINISO LAND a new store format [4] Financial Performance - 24Q1-3 revenue breakdown: Domestic RMB 7 738 billion yoy +22 8% Overseas RMB 4 543 billion yoy +41 5% [4] - Adjusted net profit margin for 24Q1-3 was 15 7% yoy -1 3pct excluding net exchange gains/losses [4] - FY2024E revenue is projected at RMB 15 391 billion yoy +34 1% with adjusted net profit of RMB 2 419 billion yoy +36 7% [7] - FY2024E gross margin is expected to reach 43 08% with a net profit margin of 15 71% [7] - ROE for FY2024E is forecasted at 24 94% with ROIC at 23 96% [7] Store Expansion - MINISO store count reached 7 186 as of September 30 2024 with 4 250 in China and 2 936 overseas [4] - TOP TOY store count reached 234 with 29 directly operated stores and 205 third-party stores [4] - The company plans to add 340-450 domestic MINISO stores and 550-650 overseas MINISO stores in 2024 [4] - As of 24Q3 domestic store expansion progress was 72%-93% while overseas progress was 69%-82% [4] IP Strategy - MINISO has collaborated with over 100 global IPs including Hello Kitty Barbie Harry Potter and Disney [4] - The new MINISO LAND store format launched in Shanghai with a monthly revenue of RMB 12 03 million during trial operation [4] - MINISO LAND stores are planned for key cities like Beijing Guangzhou and Chengdu further strengthening the IP-driven brand positioning [4] Valuation - FY2024E PE is projected at 16X with FY2025E and FY2026E PE at 13X and 11X respectively [4] - FY2025E and FY2026E net profit are forecasted at RMB 3 114 billion and RMB 4 167 billion respectively [4]

2024 年 11 月 30 日 公司盈利预测与估值简表 公司研究 海外进入旺季，哈利波特联名表现良好 ——名创优品（9896.HK）2024 年三季报点评 要点 公司 3Q2024 营收同增 19.3%，公司权益股东应占利润同增 4.8% 11 月 29 日,公司公布 2024 年三季报：1-3Q2024 实现营业收入 122.8 亿元， 同增 22.8%,实现公司权益股东应占利润 18.1 亿元，对应基本 EPS 为 1.54 元，同增 14.1%；实现经调整净利润 19.3 亿元，同增 13.7%。 单季度拆分来看，3Q2024 实现营业收入 45.2 亿元，同增 19.3%，实现公司 权益股东应占利润 6.4 亿元，同增 4.8%，对应基本 EPS0.52 元；实现经调 整净利润 6.9 亿元，同增 6.9%。 公司 3Q2024 综合毛利率同比上升 3.11pct，期间费用率同比上升 5.93pct 1-3Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 44.13%，同比上升 3.71 个百分点。单季度拆 分来看，3Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 44.89%，同比上升 3.11 个百分点。公 司毛利率同比高增主要由于 ...