Core Viewpoint - Hello Group Inc. reported its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a slight decline in net revenues but significant growth in overseas markets, indicating a shift in revenue sources and strategic focus [1][5][15]. Financial Performance - Total net revenues for Q3 2025 were RMB2,650.1 million (US$372.3 million), a decrease of 0.9% from RMB2,674.7 million in Q3 2024 [6][15]. - Value-added service revenues were RMB2,611.4 million (US$366.8 million), down 1.2% from RMB2,642.7 million in the same period last year, primarily due to external factors affecting broadcasters and weak consumer sentiment on the Momo app [7][15]. - Net revenues from the Chinese mainland decreased from RMB2,358.3 million in Q3 2024 to RMB2,115.4 million (US$297.1 million) in Q3 2025, while overseas revenues increased from RMB316.4 million to RMB534.8 million (US$75.1 million), a growth of 69.0% year over year [9][15]. - Income from operations was RMB344.5 million (US$48.4 million), down from RMB410.7 million in Q3 2024, with non-GAAP income from operations at RMB404.0 million (US$56.7 million) compared to RMB454.7 million [12][15]. - Net income attributable to Hello Group Inc. was RMB348.9 million (US$49.0 million) in Q3 2025, down from RMB449.4 million in the same period last year [16][15]. User Metrics - The total paying users for the Momo app decreased to 3.7 million in Q3 2025 from 6.9 million in the same period last year, while Tantan had 0.7 million paying users, down from 0.9 million [15][16]. Cash Flow and Assets - As of September 30, 2025, the company's cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB8,861.9 million (US$1,244.8 million), a decrease from RMB14,728.5 million as of December 31, 2024 [18]. - Net cash provided by operating activities in Q3 2025 was RMB143.5 million (US$20.2 million), compared to RMB341.0 million in Q3 2024 [18]. Business Outlook - For Q4 2025, the company expects total net revenues to be between RMB2.52 billion to RMB2.62 billion, representing a decrease of 4.4% to 0.6% year over year [23]. Recent Developments - As of December 10, 2025, the company has repurchased 54.7 million ADSs for US$341.6 million under its share repurchase program, with a remaining size of US$144.5 million [22].

Core Viewpoint - Hello Group (MOMO) has experienced significant volatility in its stock performance throughout 2025, alternating between substantial gains and losses, largely influenced by its earnings reports [1]. Company Summary - Hello Group (MOMO) is categorized as a social media and entertainment services provider [1]. - The company's stock is currently down for the year with only one month remaining [1]. Market Performance - The stock has been characterized by whipsaw movements, indicating a high level of volatility in its trading [1]. - The fluctuations in stock price are primarily driven by the company's earnings results [1].

Core Viewpoint - Hello Group Inc. is set to release its unaudited financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on December 10, 2025, before U.S. markets open [1] Group 1: Financial Results Announcement - The company will announce its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 [1] - The earnings conference call is scheduled for December 10, 2025, at 7:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time [2] - Participants can preregister for the conference call through a provided link [3] Group 2: Conference Call Details - A telephone replay of the conference call will be available until December 17, 2025, with specific dial-in details provided [4] - A live and archived webcast of the conference call will be accessible on the Investor Relations section of Hello Group's website [4] Group 3: Company Overview - Hello Group Inc. is a leading player in Asia's online social networking space, operating applications like Momo and Tantan [5] - Momo facilitates social interactions based on location and interests, while Tantan focuses on romantic connections [5] - The company has also incubated new apps targeting niche markets since 2019 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market behavior in the quantum computing sector is characterized by a significant divergence between legacy company IBM and its pure-play rivals, with IBM's stock declining despite having advanced quantum products, while other companies in the sector are experiencing substantial gains [1][2][3]. Company Performance - IBM's stock fell by 6.54% in premarket trading, despite being recognized for having the "most advanced quantum product" [2][3]. - In contrast, stocks of IonQ Inc. increased by 9.74%, Rigetti Computing Inc. rose by 7.52%, and D-Wave Quantum Inc. surged by 10.77% following reports of potential equity stakes from the Trump administration [3]. Valuation Metrics - Rigetti Computing has an extraordinarily high Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 1,136, while IonQ and D-Wave have P/S ratios of 241 and 313, respectively [5][7]. - IBM, despite its advanced product, has a much lower P/S ratio of 4.159, highlighting a disconnect between its fundamentals and the market's speculative behavior [6][7]. Market Sentiment - The recent rally in quantum stocks is attributed to retail investors, with indications that the momentum may be overheating, as suggested by The Arora Report [4][5]. - The report describes these quantum stocks as "poster children of several excesses," indicating that they are trading significantly above their intrinsic values [5].

Group 1 - A report highlighted a case in Shandong where a man's parents' information was misused for online solicitation, leading to strangers visiting their home [1] - The platforms involved in the misuse of information include Momo and Tantan, which are popular social networking applications in China [1] - Tantan was launched in July 2014 and was fully acquired by Momo in February 2018 through a combination of stock and cash [1] Group 2 - Momo, launched in August 2011, is a location-based mobile video social application developed by Zhiyuan Group, which was listed on NASDAQ in December 2014 [2] - Tantan Culture Development (Beijing) Co., Ltd., established in 2014, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Beijing Momo Technology Co., Ltd., and focuses on cultural and artistic activities [2] - Beijing Momo Technology Co., Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is also a member of Zhiyuan Group, primarily engaged in technology promotion and application services [2]

Core Viewpoint - The online dating industry, once revolutionized by apps like Tinder, is facing significant challenges as user engagement declines and competition from niche platforms and social media increases [3][6][10]. Group 1: Industry Evolution - The first online dating site, Match.com, launched in 1995, but it wasn't until Tinder's introduction of the "swipe" feature in 2012 that online dating gained mainstream popularity [2][3]. - Match Group, Tinder's parent company, went public in 2015 and acquired several dating apps, becoming a leading player in the online dating market [3]. - During the pandemic, online dating usage surged, with Match Group's market value peaking near $50 billion [3]. Group 2: User Engagement Decline - Recent data shows that daily usage of dating apps in the U.S. has dropped from 100 minutes to about 50 minutes over the past decade [3]. - Tinder's parent company, Match Group, has seen its stock price fall by over 66% in the last five years, leading to significant layoffs and a CEO change [3][5]. - Bumble, another competitor, has experienced a nearly 95% drop in market value [3]. Group 3: User Sentiment and Safety Concerns - A Forbes survey indicates that nearly 80% of respondents feel fatigued by dating apps, with many viewing online dating as a chore rather than an enjoyable activity [4]. - Safety concerns persist, with about 50% of Americans believing dating apps are unsafe, and over half of users reporting experiences of deception [4]. Group 4: Subscription Services and User Retention - Over 30% of Americans have subscribed to paid dating app services, with Tinder offering various membership tiers, some costing up to $499 per month [5]. - Match Group's recent financial reports show a 5% decline in paid users, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of decline, with over 700,000 users lost in the past year [5]. Group 5: Shift in User Preferences - Nearly half of U.S. users are seeking long-term relationships, with Gen Z showing the highest preference for such connections [6]. - Niche dating apps like Hinge, which focus on serious relationships, are gaining traction, while platforms like TikTok and Instagram are increasingly used for dating [6][7]. Group 6: Rise of Offline Dating Events - Post-pandemic, there is a resurgence in offline dating events, with many brands organizing activities for singles, which are becoming popular among younger demographics [8][9]. - New startups focusing on offline social activities are emerging, indicating a shift away from traditional online dating [9]. Group 7: Challenges in the Chinese Market - Similar challenges are faced by dating apps in China, with platforms like Momo and Tantan experiencing user declines due to regulatory issues and shifting user preferences [10]. - Momo's paid user count has dropped by 40% year-on-year, reflecting broader trends in the online dating landscape [10].

Core Thesis - Hello Group Inc. (MOMO) is viewed as a compelling contrarian investment opportunity despite facing near-term regulatory challenges in China [2][4] Financial Performance - As of September 17th, MOMO's share price was $7.73, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 11.50 and 6.44 respectively [1] - The company reported a 2% year-over-year decline in sales and a loss of $20 million, compared to a net profit of $55 million a year ago [3] - The decline in profits was primarily due to a new tax regime in China, which increased the company's tax burden to approximately 25-30% from previous levels near 20% [3] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - MOMO generates significant free cash flow and has historically returned capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks [2][4] - Over the past year, the company repurchased around 50 million ADS, reducing its share count by nearly 20%, while maintaining a dividend of $0.30 per share [2] - The intrinsic value of MOMO remains strong, with a book value of $9.22 per ADS, cash of $9.38 per ADS, and net cash of $4.75 per ADS, indicating the stock trades below its net cash-adjusted value [2] Investment Outlook - The combination of strong cash generation, shareholder-friendly capital allocation, and trading below intrinsic value positions MOMO as an attractive investment [4] - If the company returns to historical dividend levels closer to 10% and continues opportunistic buybacks, it offers both income and upside potential with limited downside risk [4]

Core Viewpoint - Hello Group Inc. (formerly Momo) is attempting to reverse a five-year revenue decline by introducing AI-backed features in its dating app, but recent financial results indicate continued revenue challenges [2][5][17] Financial Performance - The company's revenue fell 2.6% year-on-year in the second quarter to 2.62 billion yuan ($368 million), down from 2.69 billion yuan a year earlier [5][7] - In the first quarter, revenue had only declined by 1.5%, suggesting a potential for recovery that has not materialized [5] - For the third quarter, Hello Group forecasts revenue between 2.59 billion yuan and 2.69 billion yuan, indicating a possible decline of 3.2% at the low end and a slight increase of 0.6% at the high end [6] - The company reported its first net loss in over three years, amounting to 139 million yuan, primarily due to one-time tax expenses [8][15] User Engagement and Features - The newly introduced AI greeting feature aims to assist male users in crafting personalized messages for potential dates, which is expected to enhance user engagement [3][4] - The AI chat assistant feature is designed to improve ongoing conversations, potentially increasing retention rates among users [4] - Despite these innovations, the company has not yet seen a halt in revenue decline, contrasting with other consumer-facing companies in China that have stabilized [4][17] User Metrics - Paid users for the Momo app decreased by approximately 15% sequentially to 3.5 million in the second quarter, while Tantan's paid users fell by about 10% to 740,000 [13] - The value-added services for the Momo app experienced an 11% year-on-year decline, dropping to 1.85 billion yuan, which constitutes about 70% of total revenue [12] International Business - Hello Group's international business saw a significant revenue increase of 73% year-on-year in the second quarter, contributing 17% to total revenue, up from 9.5% a year earlier [14] - However, growth in the international segment is expected to slow to the mid-60% range in the third quarter as the company adopts a more conservative expansion strategy [14] Market Sentiment - Following the release of the latest financial report, Hello Group's stock fell by 7.3%, erasing most of its gains for the year, although it remains up 17% over the past 52 weeks [9] - Analysts are mixed on the company's outlook, with six out of eight still rating it a "buy," while the stock trades at a low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11 compared to global peers [16]

Core Viewpoint - Momo, once a leading dating app, is experiencing a significant decline in user engagement and revenue, particularly among younger demographics, as it struggles to adapt to changing social preferences and competition from newer platforms [1][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Momo's total revenue for Q2 was 2.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, marking the 22nd consecutive quarter of revenue decline since Q4 2020 [1]. - The number of paying users has plummeted from 7.2 million to 3.5 million year-on-year, representing a 51.4% decrease [1]. - The monthly active users of Momo's other dating app, Tantan, fell from 12.9 million to 10.2 million, with paying users dropping by 30% to 700,000 [1]. Group 2: User Demographics and Preferences - Momo's user base is increasingly skewed towards older demographics, with over 75% of users aged 25 and above, and nearly half of male users aged 41 and older [9]. - The app's original model, which focused on location and appearance, is now considered outdated by younger users who prefer connecting based on shared interests and values [4][9]. - The shift in user demographics has led to Momo becoming a platform primarily for middle-aged and older users, with a notable lack of engagement from younger individuals [4][10]. Group 3: Revenue Streams and Challenges - Momo's revenue has heavily relied on live-streaming services, which have seen a decline due to regulatory scrutiny and competition from platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [10]. - The spending habits of older users are less robust compared to younger users, making it difficult for Momo to sustain its financial performance [10]. - The company is attempting to control costs to mitigate revenue decline but is still searching for effective strategies for recovery [12].

Index Performance - The HSI closed at 26,200, up 1.0% in one day and 30.6% year-to-date [1] - The HSCEI closed at 9,328, up 0.9% in one day and 28.0% year-to-date [1] - The HSCCI closed at 4,377, up 0.6% in one day and 15.8% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI HK closed at 13,646, up 1.2% in one day and 29.2% year-to-date [1] - The MSCI CHINA closed at 86, up 0.6% in one day and 33.1% year-to-date [1] - The FTSE CHINA A50 closed at 14,844, up 0.5% in one day and 9.9% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 300 closed at 4,445, up 0.2% in one day and 13.0% year-to-date [1] - The TWSE closed at 25,193, up 1.4% in one day and 9.4% year-to-date [1] - The SENSEX closed at 81,101, up 0.4% in one day and 3.8% year-to-date [1] - The NIKKEI 225 closed at 43,838, up 0.9% in one day and 9.9% year-to-date [1] - The KOSPI closed at 3,315, up 1.7% in one day and 38.1% year-to-date [1] - The ASX 200 closed at 8,805, down 0.2% in one day and up 6.4% year-to-date [1] - The DJIA closed at 45,491, down 0.5% in one day and up 6.9% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,532, up 0.3% in one day and 11.1% year-to-date [1] - The FTSE 100 closed at 9,225, down 0.2% in one day and up 12.9% year-to-date [1] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude closed at US$68/bbl, up 1.8% in one day and down 6.2% year-to-date [2] - Gold closed at US$3,641/oz, up 0.4% in one day and 38.7% year-to-date [2] - Copper closed at US$9,914/t, unchanged in one day and up 13.1% year-to-date [2] - Aluminum closed at US$2,626/t, up 0.2% in one day and 3.9% year-to-date [2] - Nickel closed at US$14,917/t, down 0.8% in one day and 1.3% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic steel rebar 25 closed at RMB3,244/t, unchanged in one day and down 9.1% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic high speed wire closed at RMB3,614/t, down 0.1% in one day and 5.1% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic hot rolled steel closed at RMB3,420/t, down 0.1% in one day and 1.5% year-to-date [2] - CH domestic cold rolled steel closed at RMB3,914/t, unchanged in one day and down 6.7% year-to-date [2] - The BDI index closed at 2,019, unchanged in one day and up 102.5% year-to-date [2] Key Macro and Earnings Releases - US Initial Jobless Claims were 237.0k, higher than the consensus of 235.0k [3] - US Continuing Jobless Claims were 1,940.0k, lower than the consensus of 1,950.0k [3] - US CPI urban consumers MoM was 0.2%, lower than the consensus of 0.3% [3] - US CPI urban consumers YoY was 2.7%, lower than the consensus of 2.9% [3] - US CPI urban consumers was 323.0, lower than the consensus of 323.9 [3] - The Univ. of Michigan Sentiment was 58.2, higher than the consensus of 58.0 [3] - US Treasury Federal Budget Deb was -$291.1 billion, better than the consensus of -$340.0 billion [3] - FOF Federal Reserve US Household was -1,594.6% [3] - US Empire State Manufacturing was 11.9, higher than the consensus of 4.9 [3] - US Import Price Index Chg was 0.4% [3] - US Import Price Index YoY was -0.2% [3] - US capacity utilization was 77.5%, higher than the consensus of 77.4% [3] - US Industrial Production MoM was -0.1%, lower than the consensus of 0.0% [3] - US Industrial Production Indus MoM was 0.0% [3] - US Manufacturing & Trade Inven Mon was 0.2%, in line with the consensus [3] - Adjusted Retail & Food Service Mon was 0.5%, higher than the consensus of 0.3% [3] - Adjusted Retail Sales Less Auto MoM was 0.2%, lower than the consensus of 0.5% [3] Key BOCI Events - Zhou Liu Fu (Tencent Meeting at 10:30am) 6168.HK on 11 Sep [4] - BOCI Online Expert Seminar - Innovative Drug Lecture - Targeting the New Future Series IX: WCLC Innovative Drug Data Interpretation (Tencent Meeting at 4:30pm) on 11 Sep [4] - BOCI Online Expert Seminar - Domestic Server Industry Landscape and Outlook (Tencent Meeting at 4:30pm) on 11 Sep [4] - BOCI Online Expert Seminar - Overseas Hard Tech Seminar: Focus on AI ASIC Chip Thermal Design (Tencent Meeting at 3:30pm) on 11 Sep [4] - Raphael Chen - Internet Sector Marketing (1x1) in HK on 11 - 12 Sep [4] - Tony Fei - Power Sector Marketing (1x1) in SH on 15 - 16 Sep [4] - Raphael Chen - Media Sector Marketing (1x1) in SH on 18 - 19 Sep [4] - Luk Fook (Tencent Meeting at 11am) 0590.HK on 25 Sep [4] - Fortior Tech 峰岹科技 (1x1, Group Lunch) 1304.HK/688279.CH on 26 Sep [4] China Economy - In August, CPI edged down 0.4% YoY after being unchanged in July, while core CPI grew 0.9% YoY, up 0.1ppt from July [5][7] - The "industrial anti-involution" policy further took effect in August, improving the prices of durable goods CPI and some raw material PPI growth [5][7] - PPI dropped 2.9% YoY in August after falling 3.6% YoY in July, and the growth trend of both CPI and PPI is expected to gradually pick up amid the low base last year, narrowing the decline of GDP deflator [6][7] Hello Group Inc - The company's rating is HOLD, with a target price of US$8.30 and a current price of US$7.88 [8] - In 2Q25, the topline was -3% YoY, meeting BOCIe. Excluding non-recurring RMB548m accrual withholding tax, adj. NPM was 17.2%, beating consensus [8] - ROI remains the top assessment benchmark for operating domestic core Momo, Tantan and overseas businesses in 2H25. The company is expected to dynamically increase the revenue sharing ratio for core Momo in 2H25 to offset the negative impact of strict tax scrutiny [9][10] - The company will implement a more prudent model for its overseas expansion in 2H25 [9][10]