Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continued potential for growth in AI-powered stocks, highlighting three companies with significant upside for 2026, despite the overall market showing high valuations after strong performance in previous years [2][3]. Group 1: Adobe - Adobe's stock has faced challenges due to concerns about AI's impact on its core products, yet it has shown solid operating results with steady revenue growth driven by customer acquisition and pricing strategies [5][9]. - The company has successfully launched Adobe Express, contributing to a growing user base of over 70 million across its freemium offerings, with a 15% increase in monthly active users (MAU) last quarter [6][7]. - Analysts from Jefferies and DA Davidson have set a price target of $500 for Adobe, indicating a potential upside of 41% from its current price, supported by strong operating results and a forward P/E ratio below 15 [9]. Group 2: Atlassian - Atlassian focuses on enterprise software for project planning and collaboration, serving over 300,000 customers and millions of MAUs, with a successful migration to a cloud-based platform [10][11]. - The company reported a 26% increase in cloud revenue last quarter and a 42% rise in remaining performance obligations, indicating strong growth potential [11]. - Bernstein analyst Peter Weed has set a price target of $304 for Atlassian, suggesting an 85% upside, driven by rapid top-line growth and potential margin expansion [14]. Group 3: Marvell Technology - Marvell Technology specializes in networking chips and custom AI accelerators, collaborating with major companies like Microsoft and Amazon [15]. - Despite recent concerns about competition from Broadcom, Marvell's CEO noted that it has not lost business from key clients, and the company is expected to continue growing in the custom AI accelerator market [18]. - Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis raised Marvell's price target to $156, indicating an 88% upside, supported by strategic acquisitions and a strong position in custom AI solutions [19].

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Semiconductor Research Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Semiconductors and Data Center Capital Expenditure (Capex) - **Key Companies Discussed**: NVIDIA (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Micron Technology (MU) Key Points Data Center Capex Growth - Data center capital expenditure is projected to grow by **65%+ year-over-year (Y/Y) in 2025**, an increase from the previous estimate of **55%** [1] - This growth translates to an **incremental spend of over $115 billion** in 2025 compared to 2024, up from the earlier estimate of **$75-80 billion** [1] - The expected **incremental AI-related revenue** for NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and MRVL in 2025 is projected to be **$85 billion+** [1] 2026 Projections - Data center capex is now expected to track to **50%+ growth in 2026**, revised from **30%** [1] - This implies an **incremental spend of over $150 billion** in 2026, with potential upside to **$175 billion+** if demand continues to surge [1] - The strong demand for AI compute is anticipated to push 2026 data center capex growth into the **60%+ Y/Y range** [1] Company-Specific Insights - **NVIDIA (NVDA)**: Recently announced agreements with OpenAI and Anthropic contribute to a **$500 billion+ revenue backlog** through the end of 2026 [1] - **Broadcom (AVGO)**: Market misinterpretation of management's comments on a **$73 billion backlog** due to lead times [1] - **Marvell Technology (MRVL)**: Likely upside from AWS orders for Tranium3 [1] - **Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)**: Anticipated announcements regarding significant customer engagements in the next 6-9 months [1] Market Dynamics - The spending environment is expected to support a **40-50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR)** for the AI accelerator total addressable market (TAM) off a **$200 billion base in 2025** [4] - Strong AI server spending is projected to benefit companies like NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, AMD, and Micron [4] Future Visibility - While visibility into data center capex beyond 2026 is limited, current expectations suggest a **~10% Y/Y growth** in 2027 if spending remains flat [1] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of not solely focusing on traditional hyperscalers, as significant spending is also occurring with neoclouds and sovereign AI projects [4] - The analysis indicates that the semiconductor sector is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing AI demand, with several companies highlighted as top picks in the AI/cloud space [4] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of data center capex, is poised for significant growth driven by AI demand, with key players like NVDA, AMD, AVGO, and MRVL expected to benefit substantially from this trend [1][4]

Summary of J.P. Morgan Semiconductor Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is projected to reach a value of $770 billion by CY25, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7-8% [9][10] - The industry is experiencing lower cyclicality due to end-market diversification and disciplined supply growth, which enhances profitability and free cash flow expansion [9][10] - Key drivers of growth include cloud datacenters, electric vehicles (EV), Internet of Things (IoT), and artificial intelligence (AI) [9][10] Stock Performance - Semiconductor stocks have outperformed the market over various time frames, with the SOX (Semiconductor) Index showing a 29% return over the past year and a 42% return over three years [7][8] - Semiconductor capital equipment stocks have also shown strong performance, with a 22% return over the past year [7][8] Revenue and Earnings Outlook - Industry revenue growth is expected to accelerate to 15-20% in 2025, following a 6-8% increase in CY24 [11] - Preliminary outlook for 2026 indicates semiconductor revenues will increase by 10-15%, with wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) up 10-12% and software up 10-15% [11] - Positive earnings revisions have been noted for approximately 75% of covered semiconductor companies in 2025, compared to 40% in 2024 [12] Market Dynamics - The last four down-cycles in the semiconductor market have been demand-driven rather than supply-driven, indicating a more disciplined approach to supply expansion [11] - Geopolitical uncertainties, potential global tariffs, and export restrictions are identified as key risks that could affect recovery in 2026 [11] Key Company Insights - Large-cap top picks include AVGO (Broadcom), ADI (Analog Devices), MRVL (Marvell), MU (Micron), KLAC (KLA Corporation), and SNPS (Synopsys) [11] - Small and mid-cap top picks include ALAB (Alphawave), MTSI (Macom Technology Solutions) [11] Custom ASIC Market - The custom ASIC market is experiencing a resurgence, with a projected $30 billion opportunity in CY25, growing at a CAGR of over 30% [35] - Broadcom and Marvell are expected to dominate this market, with Broadcom projected to drive over $55 billion in total AI revenue in FY26 [35] AI Demand and Infrastructure - AI chip shipments are expected to grow at a CAGR of over 58% from 2022 to 2028, with AI ASICs projected to account for over 50% of overall XPU unit shipments by CY28 [28] - Cloud and hyperscale data center capital expenditures are expected to grow by 50% year-over-year in CY26, driven by aggressive product roadmaps from GPU providers and internal custom silicon deployments [32] Inventory Levels - Semiconductor inventory levels are approaching normalized levels after significant drawdowns from peak levels in 2023, indicating positive cyclical dynamics [22][20] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is poised for continued growth driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for AI and custom chips, despite potential geopolitical risks and market volatility [9][11][35]

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 16 December 2025 Semiconductors/Semi Cap Equipment 2026 Outlook: Expect Another Year Of Stock Outperformance; Continued Strong AI Spending And Accelerating Cyclical Recovery In Industrial/Auto; Favor AVGO, MRVL, ADI, MU, KLAC, SNPS Heading into 2026, we maintain our view that long-term investors should continue to focus on the multiyear (1,3, 5,10,15, 20-year) track record of semis stock outperformance driven by (1) the crucial role semis play in the tech value ...

Group 1 - The article discusses Kennedy's investment philosophy, which focuses on GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) and emphasizes investing in companies with aggressive growth prospects that are expected to become highly profitable within 1-2 years [1] - Kennedy's approach includes long-term discipline, consistent alpha generation, and a consideration of risk, indicating a balanced investment strategy [1] - The article highlights Kennedy's commitment to empowering the underprivileged and improving financial literacy through his investment insights [1]

Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy focuses on GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) with a preference for companies that exhibit aggressive growth potential and are expected to become highly profitable within 1-2 years [1] - Emphasis is placed on long-term discipline, consistent alpha generation, and a calculated approach to risk [1] Social Impact - The objective includes empowering underprivileged communities and enhancing financial literacy [1] Analyst's Position - The analyst holds a beneficial long position in MRVL shares through various financial instruments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coatue Management, led by Philippe Laffont, is adjusting its investment strategy in the AI sector by reducing stakes in Nvidia and AMD while increasing investments in Alphabet and Marvell Technology, indicating a shift towards a broader semiconductor opportunity in AI infrastructure [2][12][14]. Group 1: Investment Moves - During Q3, Coatue Management reduced its exposure to Nvidia by 14% and AMD by 19% [2]. - The fund significantly increased its stakes in Alphabet and Marvell Technology, tripling its investments in both companies [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Nvidia and AMD are leading the AI chip market, with their shares increasing by nearly 900% and 200% respectively during the AI revolution [3]. - McKinsey & Company forecasts that AI infrastructure investment will reach nearly $7 trillion over the next five years, primarily for data centers and chip procurement [6]. Group 3: Company Insights - Alphabet's cloud infrastructure, particularly Google Cloud, is attracting major clients like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta Platforms, enhancing its market position [7]. - Alphabet's custom-designed AI processors, known as Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), are becoming integral to its AI ecosystem [8]. - Marvell specializes in high-bandwidth memory computing stacks and other essential hardware for data centers, positioning itself well in the AI market [9][10]. Group 4: Strategic Outlook - The semiconductor opportunity is expanding beyond general-purpose chips, with a focus on specific segments like memory storage and custom chipsets [11][14]. - Laffont's strategy reflects a structural shift rather than a negative sentiment towards AI GPUs, indicating a bullish outlook on the growth of AI infrastructure [12][14]. - A diversified portfolio across GPUs, custom chipsets, and memory architecture is expected to be a successful long-term investment strategy [15].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley significantly raised its forecast for data center capital expenditure growth, indicating that the market has severely underestimated the profit potential of AI-related stocks [1][2][4] Group 1: Capital Expenditure Forecasts - The growth rate for data center capital expenditure in 2025 has been revised upward from 55% to approximately 65%, driven by large cloud service providers increasing investments in AI infrastructure [2][3] - For 2026, data center capital expenditure growth is expected to exceed 50%, a substantial increase from the previous estimate of 30%, translating to over $150 billion in incremental spending [1][2] - Historical data shows that capital expenditure growth expectations tend to be revised upward throughout the year, and this trend is likely to continue for 2026 and 2027 [3] Group 2: Revenue Potential for Chip Suppliers - Analysts' consensus forecasts for companies like Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, and Marvell do not fully reflect the upcoming $150 billion to $175 billion in new capital expenditure, indicating a potential upside in revenue projections [4][6] - The strong and urgent demand for AI computing could lead to data center capital expenditure growth reaching 60% or more, which would necessitate upward revisions of profit expectations for these chip giants [4] Group 3: Order Backlogs and Emerging Buyers - Morgan Stanley highlighted that the market has misinterpreted the backlog value of companies like Broadcom and Nvidia, underestimating the speed at which these backlogs will convert into actual revenue [6] - The focus on the top four or five U.S. cloud providers overlooks significant spending from emerging players, including neoclouds and sovereign AI projects, which are becoming crucial pillars of AI chip demand [6]

Core Insights - The innovation ecosystem is facing renewed fears of an AI bubble, impacting major companies like Marvell Technology Inc (MRVL) which saw its stock drop approximately 18% since December 3 after a 41% gain from September to early December [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - Oracle Corp's mixed earnings results have contributed to anxiety regarding AI spending, affecting semiconductor stocks including MRVL [2][3] - Despite the current downturn, experts believe that interest in AI remains strong and the sector is becoming increasingly competitive, particularly in resource supply chains [4] Seasonal Trends - The period between Christmas and early January, known as the Santa Claus rally, typically sees stock prices rise due to lighter trading volumes and year-end optimism, which could benefit MRVL [5] Price Analysis - Historical data indicates that MRVL's stock price could range between $78 and $90 over the next 10 weeks, with a median clustering around $85.80 [10][11] - The current downward trend in MRVL's stock shows only three up weeks in the trailing 10 weeks, suggesting a cautious outlook [10] Trading Strategy - A proposed trading strategy involves a bull call spread with a maximum profit potential of 150% if MRVL stock rises above $87.50 by expiration [16][17] - The breakeven point for this strategy is set at $86, which is considered an ideal threshold for potential gains [17]

Core Viewpoint - Marvell Technology is currently undervalued in the AI stock market, with a significant decline in stock price despite strong revenue growth, presenting a potential investment opportunity [1][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - Marvell Technology is a custom AI chipmaker that has been overshadowed by more well-known companies like Nvidia and Palantir Technologies [1]. - The company has experienced a 25% decline in stock price year-to-date, despite its revenue growth rates outpacing this decline [3][8]. Group 2: Revenue and Financial Performance - In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Marvell Technology reported a 37% year-over-year increase in sales, while operating income rose by 23% year-over-year [6]. - The forward P/E ratio for Marvell Technology stands at 23.5, indicating that its valuation has not kept pace with its revenue growth [6]. Group 3: Impact of Rumors - Rumors regarding the loss of business from major clients like Amazon and Microsoft have negatively impacted Marvell's stock price, although these claims were refuted by CEO Matt Murphy [4][5]. - The credibility of these rumors has created a buying opportunity for long-term investors, despite the ongoing pressure on the stock price [5][8]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Marvell Technology's recent sale of its automotive Ethernet business for $2.5 billion has inflated its net income figures, but the company has maintained a net profit margin of approximately 10% in previous quarters [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the AI data center boom, making it a potential long-term winner in the industry [8].