镜相工作室 . 以下文章来源于镜相工作室 ，作者镜相作者 商业世界的风向与人 来源丨 镜相工作室（ID： shangyejingxiang ） 作者丨阮怡玲 编辑丨 卢枕 图源丨Midjourney 还不到三年，AI已经从一个陌生的概念，变成生活中随处可见的元素。如今，AI慢慢具备越来越强大 的人类书写、表达、情感模拟等能力，它的飞速蔓延，在带来便利、提高效率的同时，也让大家或多 或少感受到了它的负面影响。 前段时间，美国版贴吧Reddit发言人说，2025年上半年他们已经删除了超过4000万条垃圾和虚假内 容，其中一个拥有2400万用户的超大社区的管理员 Cassie估计，高达50%的内容，都在某种程度上 被AI污染过。 大家使用AI越来越无所顾忌。工作危机、审美危机、思考危机逐渐浮现，AI进步的速度到了吓人的地 步，开始大举侵入情感、伦理与日常经验表达的核心领域。 于是，有一群人开始想办法对抗AI，捍卫自己在数字世界中的"真实性"与"主体性"。他们身处行业不 同，接触AI的主要渠道不同，也与AI产生了不同程度的对抗。写作者因为AI被迫使用更笨拙、更破碎 的表达，甚至丧失了表达欲；音乐工作者既要与AI竞争， ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of A-shares at the beginning of 2026 is primarily driven by "excess liquidity" chasing "scarce return assets," rather than significant changes in the macroeconomic fundamentals [2][3][5]. Group 1: A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen a 16-day consecutive rise, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, continuing the trend from 2025 [3][5]. - The main contributors to the A-share gains are valuation expansions, with sectors like commercial aerospace and materials leading the charge [5][8]. - A-share trading volumes have reached historical highs, with a single-day turnover exceeding 30 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [5][8]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market has lagged behind, primarily due to a lack of attractive structural opportunities and weaker capital flows [9][11]. - Key sectors in Hong Kong, such as dividends, internet, and new consumption, are not currently in the market's focus, leading to underperformance [11][19]. - The Hong Kong IPO market remains active, with significant fundraising, but the overall market sentiment is subdued compared to A-shares [17][19]. Group 3: Capital Flow and Liquidity - Domestic capital flows have favored A-shares, with southbound capital flows slowing down significantly since late 2025 [15][19]. - The liquidity environment for A-shares is more favorable, benefiting from domestic microeconomic conditions, while Hong Kong faces constraints from external factors [28][30]. - The anticipated inflow of southbound capital in 2026 may not match the record levels seen in 2025, as A-shares attract more attention [30][32]. Group 4: Structural Differences and Future Outlook - A-shares are expected to have a higher overall profit growth rate of 4%-5% in 2026, compared to Hong Kong's 3%, driven by stronger sectors like technology and manufacturing [25][26]. - The structural advantages of Hong Kong, including its focus on dividends and innovative drugs, provide unique investment opportunities, even as A-shares outperform overall [30][32]. - The ongoing credit cycle and its impact on market dynamics will guide investment strategies, with a focus on sectors like AI, dividends, and cyclical stocks [33].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. military operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, highlighting the disparity between the myths created by U.S. military contractors and the actual effectiveness of their technologies in the operation [1][2]. Group 1: Military Technology and Market Reactions - Companies like Palantir and Anduril have been touted for their AI software and drone technologies allegedly used in the operation, leading to a significant rise in Palantir's stock price over three consecutive trading days [4][5]. - The claims regarding the effectiveness of Palantir's AI in locating Venezuelan defense systems are exaggerated, as the actual military operation revealed that the software did not play a decisive role [5][6]. - The military's technological superiority and the poor state of Venezuelan military readiness were the primary factors in the operation's success, rather than the advanced technologies being marketed [6][9]. Group 2: Venezuelan Military Condition - Reports indicate that 50% of Venezuela's air defense radar systems were non-operational due to a lack of spare parts, and the air force's operational capabilities were severely limited [7][11]. - The Venezuelan military's reliance on outdated technology and insufficient funding has left it vulnerable, with many advanced weapons purchased in the past now rendered ineffective [12][14]. - The military's strategic approach has focused on acquiring high-tech weapons to deter U.S. intervention, but this has not translated into effective defense capabilities [12][13]. Group 3: Recommendations for Military Strategy - Countries facing similar threats should consider adopting a "porcupine" strategy, enhancing their defensive capabilities with a mix of conventional and advanced systems rather than relying solely on high-tech solutions [14][22]. - The article suggests that nations should invest in affordable and effective defense technologies, such as passive radar systems and low-cost air defense solutions, to improve their military readiness [17][20]. - Emphasizing the importance of military preparedness, the article argues that without a proactive defense strategy, nations risk becoming targets for military operations [11][26].

近日，多名钓鱼爱好者在社交平台发布的AI钓鱼视频引发热议：视频中，他们用手机中的AI软件连通 摄像头监控浮漂动静，一旦有鱼上钩就提醒拉杆。有钓友在AI提醒下钓到了鱼，还用AI识别了鱼的种 类。不过也有钓鱼爱好者表示，AI有错误提醒的情况……有网友表示："AI毕竟不如人类。" 1月7日，记者采访了来自安徽合肥的钓鱼爱好者邬先生，他在去年12月和近日发布了两条用AI钓鱼的 视频，但视频中都没钓起鱼。不过，邬先生告诉记者："用AI钓鱼，也有钓起鱼的时候，只不过我觉得 不够有趣，就只发了'空军'（没有鱼获）的视频。" 记者询问他的成功案例。邬先生称："AI提醒我成功钓鱼，全都是鱼'吃死口'的情况。在浮漂下顿和上 顶的时候，AI就可能判断不准了。" 为何要用AI钓鱼？邬先生解释："去年12月的一天，我正钓鱼时，老婆突然打来电话，于是我就尝试用 AI视频通话功能帮忙看一下漂。后来也刷到其他钓友用AI钓鱼，于是就发了视频和大家讨论一下。" 邬先生还分析了AI无法准确判断浮漂是否中鱼的原因："可能是AI看浮漂不够清晰，对比度高一点的场 景可能会准一些。" 对此，记者还采访了重庆钓鱼达人吴先生，他在观看完AI钓鱼的相关视频后坦 ...

制造、量子科技、生物制造、芯片、新材料和核聚变六大领域。这些领域与中国"十五五"规 划中的重点产业高度重叠，预示着两大经济体之间的竞争与合作并存。 财政部原副部长 朱光耀 这一判断得到了丹麦著名科技投资人Lars Tvede的验证。他认为，世界正经历史上技术扩散 最快的阶段，AI的影响力已显现在实际的生产活动中。他预计，未来五年有效算力有望增长至 当前的约180万倍，这将催生包括个人AI、具身智能在内的广泛应用，到2050年，按模型推 算的AI认知处理量将达到全人类大脑合计的约5000万倍，并可能承担绝大多数人类白领与体 力工作。Lars Tvede也指出，尽管AI领域的投资存在局部过热，但基于健康的公司财务状 况、有利的宏观背景和相对合理的估值，他将当前阶段视为由强大基本面驱动的前瞻性投 资，而非泡沫。 2026年伊始，全球经济延续激荡的 "分化"与"重塑"，AI浪潮正从资本开支迈入应用落地关键 期，全球再工业化驱动大规模财政投入与制造业回流，重塑供应链格局。国内经济方面，"十 五五"规划的开局之年，围绕发展新质生产力，经济的高质量发展进一步落地见效。 投资者如何在宏观变革的大潮中，寻求结构性的投资机遇，天 ...

回到市场表现，聂挺进表示，2025年，居民资金通过多渠道入市、险资提高权益持股比例、关键资金维稳，形成了多方资金共振的A股行情。2026年，中国 经济结构性亮点仍然突出，有利于主被动公募、私募基金持股比例进一步提升，与主题投资和成长趋势投资共振；保险资金、银行理财资金持续流入，为市 场风险偏好提供支撑。 具体投资方向上，AI的投资逻辑正在从"硬"向"软"和"应用"两端延伸。聂挺进认为，目前的投资重点集中于算力芯片和基础设施，而未来将更多地向AI软 件、端侧智能体应用以及支撑算力爆发的底层绿色能源与电力设备领域扩展。 天弘基金的基金经理张磊进一步分析科技的投资机会。他认为，AI投资重心正从追逐算力硬件向需求侧验证与国产化突破延伸。 "2026年应重点关注三个方向。"张磊称，一是国产算力芯片的性能提升与产能改善；二是半导体设备厂商的基本面改善、存储环节的扩产加速；三是国内AI 应用端出现爆款的可能性。这标志着AI投资进入更务实、更深入的阶段。 此外，全球再工业化直接拉动了对先进制造全产业链的广泛需求。聂挺进强调，这一趋势将带动工业金属之王"铜"的需求，并进一步扩散至锂、钴、铝、镍 等其他工业和能源金属，估值合理的 ...

2026年投资大幕即将启幕，作为"十五五"规划开局之年，经济转型深化与政策发力预期叠加，市场核心 逻辑正从"风险偏好修复"转向"盈利验证"，结构性机遇与投资挑战并存。 在这一关键节点，为厘清市场脉络、挖掘投资机会，证券时报·券商中国记者邀请了六位深耕不同领域 的知名基金经理，拆解2026年宏观经济、产业趋势与配置逻辑，以期为投资者提供专业参考。 宏观层面，金梓才认为，全球与国内流动性环境预计同步向好，为市场奠定坚实基础。外部来看，美联 储2026年降息节奏或加快，A股面临的外部约束大幅减弱，海外资金环境更趋友好；内部而言，国内货 币政策将持续为经济高质量发展与产业升级提供支持，维持流动性合理充裕。 产业维度，金梓才认为，以人工智能为首的科技成长方向增长动能将持续强化。AI产业正从2025年的 高速渗透，迈向2026年进一步业绩兑现与深度影响阶段，现有迹象表明，其后续增长势头非但不会放 缓，反而可能加快，对企业生产效率和商业模式的变革将更为深刻。 "2026年A股市场或将呈现显著的龙头集中与基本面驱动的结构性特征。"金梓才表示，具体体现为三方 面：第一，行情高度结构化，能够持续获得市场青睐的公司，将高度集中在少 ...

Group 1 - The overall performance of the equity market in 2025 was strong, with technology stocks, particularly those related to computing power, showing significant gains and becoming a key factor in fund investments [1] - In 2026, the impact of prices on nominal growth is expected to decrease, leading to a more certain recovery in China's nominal economic growth [1] - Domestic consumption of goods in China is at a reasonable level, but the proportion of service consumption is notably lower than the global average, indicating potential for growth in this area [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the equity market in 2026 suggests that overall opportunities outweigh risks, despite some overheating in certain sectors of AI-related technology stocks [2] - The AI industry is entering a critical growth phase, with China's engineer advantage expected to accelerate the development of the domestic AI sector, leading to many companies entering a rapid growth period [2] - Domestic consumption-related stocks have shown average performance recently, but many quality consumer stocks have dividend yields in an attractive range, indicating potential for upward movement [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant drop after initially opening strong, while Chinese assets, particularly Chinese concept stocks, maintained a robust performance with a rise of approximately 4% [2][5]. Market Performance - On January 2, the U.S. stock market indices initially followed the Asian market's upward trend but soon began to decline, with the Dow Jones fluctuating and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 erasing their earlier gains [2]. - The Nasdaq index was reported at 23,168.32, down 0.32% with a trading volume of 2.14 billion shares [4]. - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 4.22%, reaching 7,847.38, with a trading volume of 0 shares at the time of reporting [6]. Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks showed resilience, with notable gains: Baidu increased by over 12%, and its subsidiary Kunlun Chip has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5][7]. - Other Chinese stocks also performed well, including Yatsen Global (+11.31%), JinkoSolar (+9.41%), and others, contributing to the overall strength of the Chinese stock market [7]. Sector Movements - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 3%, with significant gains from companies like ASML (+9.26%) and Micron Technology (+8.56%) [12][14]. - The decline in the Nasdaq was influenced by major AI software stocks, with Amazon and Microsoft both dropping over 2% [15]. Economic Factors - The stock price of Wayfair and RH rose over 5% due to the postponement of tariffs on soft furniture and kitchen cabinets by the U.S. government [17].

转自：扬子晚报 12月30日晚，罗永浩2025年度科技创新分享大会在上海举行。根据预告，大会将于19时进行，不过，罗 永浩本人并未准时现身，而是迟到了44分钟后才出现在讲台。此前的发布会，罗永浩也曾多次迟到。有 网友调侃道："重新定义了19时。" 直播截图 还未走上讲台的罗永浩在幕后表示："这么多年了，其实我本来宁可切断一只手，也不愿发生这样的 事，但它还是发生了，向大家道歉。后续会发文解释一下，希望大家理解。" 记者注意到，截至30日晚7时50分，罗永浩本人账号的直播间在抖音平台已有超50万人观看，微博平台 突破200万人观看。 罗永浩个人微博截图 网友表示，没有时间观念差评。 据此前报道，12月1日，罗永浩在个人微博发布科技春晚预告："本次科技创新分享大会上要介绍的科技 产品，全部由我和我们的产品团队主动选品，我会精心编排所有的演讲内容，并亲自在发布会上进行讲 解。" 据了解，罗永浩此前的新品发布会被网友称为"科技春晚"，但2018年锤子手机业务失败后，罗永浩 的"科技春晚"一直未举办。 罗永浩表示："这是我阔别科技发布会舞台七年后的第一次，所以除了介绍大概十几个中国科技创新产 品，差不多软件和硬件各一半 ...