2026.02.24 回顾马年春晚，科技元素全面霸屏，机器人从表演展示向消费级场景延伸，AI应用深度协助春晚内容 制作与线上互动、红包抽奖等全流程，分会场上演超大规模无人机光影秀，此外还有量子信息、聚变能 源、深空探测等科技元素。而今年春晚的"含酒量"创近年新低。 对此，有投资者感慨，这是中国科技产业的一次集体"路演"，也是"股票味最浓"的一年春晚，堪称"选 股指南"。 那么，今年春晚对节后A股影响如何？杨超对记者称，春晚科技元素"霸屏"或驱动短期情绪，产业链公 司将受关注。 他建议，可关注业绩确定性强的细分领域龙头，科技主线行情仍在途；同时，需警惕市场波动风险，尤 其是板块估值分化驱使，部分前期涨幅较大的科技股需警惕交易拥挤风险。 本文字数：1912，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 黄思瑜 春晚科技元素点燃A股赛道猜想，马年首个交易日来临，A股将如何演绎备受市场关注。 银河证券首席策略分析师杨超对第一财经记者称，今年春晚的科技元素（机器人、AI云、无人机/低空 经济）对节后A股相关领域的影响，主要体现在短期情绪催化与长期产业趋势强化。尤其是机器人板 块，春晚"霸屏"或驱动短期情绪，产业链公司将受关注。 ...

银河证券首席策略分析师杨超对第一财经记者称，今年春晚的科技元素（机器人、AI云、无人机/低空 经济）对节后A股相关领域的影响，主要体现在短期情绪催化与长期产业趋势强化。尤其是机器人板 块，春晚"霸屏"或驱动短期情绪，产业链公司将受关注。 春晚科技元素点燃A股赛道猜想，马年首个交易日来临，A股将如何演绎备受市场关注。 关于上述境内外宏观因素和市场表现对A股市场的影响，杨超分析称，一方面，地缘政治因素对市场具 有强扰动，美伊谈判或助推美元指数短期震荡上行，压制全球市场；同时，地缘影响对石油石化、贵金 属板块（美元定价逻辑弱化）具有强脉冲效应。另一方面，美元短期提振预期加强，从三个价格框架分 析（汇率、中美利差、国内股债跷跷板效应）判断，开年以来，人民币主动升值预期提升，且中长期不 改人民币汇率走强预期。从敏感性分析，中美利差短期有走阔风险，汇率和中美利差对A股存"一正一 副"的影响，但对A股市场的扰动弱于汇率升值的利好。 政策影响预期提升 整体来看节后的A股市场，有望如何演绎？ 就整个A股市场而言，多位券商分析师认为，节后春季行情有望延续，继续看好A股节后迎来新一轮上 行，未来一段时间政策对市场的驱动可能全面提升 ...

Group 1 - The core focus for investment opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period includes three main directions: AI profitability models, overseas expansion, and domestic demand [3][9] - In the AI sector, the current open-source model has not yet generated revenue, with major tech companies leading in AI cloud income and some vertical AI application companies starting to see revenue from AI Agents [3][9] - The trend of overseas revenue contribution is increasing among A-share indices, with leading companies potentially deriving nearly half of their profits from international markets, indicating a rise in China's global competitiveness [3][9] Group 2 - The overall judgment for China's economy in 2026 suggests stable growth in quantity, improved price trends, and enhanced quality, following years of deleveraging and structural adjustments [4][10] - The AI-driven tech industry is expected to be a key area for productivity improvement, with a positive cycle anticipated between AI application advancements and capital expenditures [5][10] - The investment strategy for 2026 should adopt a defensive yet progressive approach, focusing on stable cash flow and strong dividend capabilities in leading industries, while also targeting clear business models and profitable companies in tech and overseas markets [5][11]

Group 1 - Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW, citing short-term pressure on advertising but stabilization trends, with AI cloud growth logic remaining intact [1] - China Hongqiao's target price raised to HKD 45 by CMB International, driven by a persistent global aluminum supply-demand gap until 2026-27, leading to a 27% and 12% upward revision in profit forecasts [1] - CMB International initiates a "Buy" rating for Innovation Industry with a target price of HKD 32, highlighting significant cost advantages from renewable energy and a clear growth path through overseas aluminum projects [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities lowers the target price for Ausnutria to HKD 2.11 while maintaining an "Add" rating, noting ongoing pressure from declining newborn population impacting domestic infant formula sales, but strong overseas performance [2] - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile with a target price of HKD 23.37, reporting a 121% year-on-year increase in January export sales and a 99.7% growth in the Zeekr brand [3] - Dongfang Securities also maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W with a target price of HKD 104.36, highlighting a 112% month-on-month increase in AI overseas revenue and ongoing technological advancements [3] Group 3 - CITIC Construction maintains a "Buy" rating for Laopu Gold, noting a pre-Spring Festival buying spree and strong brand expansion, with Q1 gross margin expected to approach 40% [4] - Kaiyuan Securities initiates a "Buy" rating for Leshu Comfort, emphasizing its leading market share in Africa for baby diapers and sanitary napkins, supported by localized production and distribution channels [5] - GF Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W, indicating a stabilization in food delivery competition and a solid market position, with profitability expected to improve by 2026 [6] - Guoyuan International Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Q Technology with a target price of HKD 12.89, noting a 27.2% year-on-year increase in camera module prices and a growing revenue share from non-mobile sectors [7]

Group 1 - Baidu Group has announced a new share buyback plan, authorizing the repurchase of up to $5 billion in company shares, effective until December 31, 2028 [2] - The company has adopted a dividend policy for the first time, with the first dividend expected to be announced in 2026, supported by sustainable funding sources primarily from operating profits [2] - Baidu's stock price has recently declined, with a reported price of HKD 136.2, down 0.73% as of February 5 [2] Group 2 - For the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, Baidu reported total revenue of CNY 31.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5% [3] - The company recorded an operating loss of CNY 15.1 billion and a net loss of CNY 11.2 billion, primarily due to long-term asset impairment of CNY 16.2 billion; however, excluding this impact, the operating profit was CNY 2.2 billion [3] - Baidu disclosed its AI business revenue for the first time, reporting CNY 10 billion in AI revenue for the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 50% [3] Group 3 - Citigroup expects Baidu's core advertising revenue decline to narrow from 18.7% in the third quarter to 16% in the following quarter, while total cloud business revenue growth forecast has been revised down from 15% to 11.5% [4] - Bank of America anticipates that Baidu's performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 will meet expectations, with core business expected to recover from the third quarter's low [4] - The forecast for Baidu's core revenue in the fourth quarter is a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7% to CNY 26.5 billion, with adjusted operating profit expected to grow by 17% to CNY 2.6 billion [4]

Core Viewpoint - Baidu has announced a new share repurchase plan authorized by its board, allowing for the repurchase of up to $5 billion of its shares, effective until December 31, 2028 [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Baidu reported total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [1] - The net profit under non-GAAP was 3.77 billion yuan [1] AI Business Growth - Baidu disclosed that its AI business revenue grew by over 50% year-on-year [1] - AI cloud revenue increased by 33% year-on-year [1] - Subscription revenue from AI high-performance computing infrastructure surged by 128% [1] - AI application revenue reached 2.6 billion yuan [1] - Revenue from AI-native marketing services rose by 262% to 2.8 billion yuan [1]

| [Table_ 货币单位：人民币 Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 134,598 | 133,125 | 128,962 | 136,730 | 146,565 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 9% | -1% | -3% | 6% | 7% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 60,116 | 64,218 | 42,454 | 56,182 | 60,480 | | NonGaap归母净利润 （百万元） | 28,747 | 27,002 | 18,257 | 20,985 | 24,182 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 39% | -6% | -32% | 15% | 15% | | NonGaap EPS （ 元 /ADS） | 84 | 79 | 53 | 61 | 70 | | 市 盈 率 NonGaap （P/E） | 13 | 14 | 21 | 18 | 16 | | ROE （ % ） | 8% | 9% | 2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，金山云(03896)拥有高可见度的强劲需求，小米金山加大AI 投入，基础大模型、智能汽车、WPS均需要大量AI训练和推理算力，非小米客户AI需求亦旺盛。参考 可比公司估值，分别给予AI云/非AI云业务6/2倍PS，对应合理价值10.49港元/股。维持"买入"评级。 预计25Q4AI公有云收入同比+82%至8.65亿元，占总收入比例升至32.2%；行业云稳健增长。根据Q3业 绩公告，25Q3物业及设备额净增约27.3亿元，环比多4.4亿元，表明需求旺盛，预计Q4新设备交付，支 撑AI业务高增长。 与小米金山生态合作持续攀升 小米于24年底开始发力基座模型，25年陆续发布多个轻量模型，年底发布309B参数量的MiMo-V2-Flash 语言基座，展现高效能。25年1~9月公司来自小米金山生态收入合计18.2亿元，该行预计25年小米收入 贡献有望接近关联交易上限，26年将进一步增长。 预计26年将延续高资本开支 该行预计26年将延续高资本开支，超过25年水平，即超过100亿元，主要考虑需求依然旺盛。预测公司 26年收入同比+28.8%达122亿元，其中AI公有云收入同比+85 ...

就在上述报告发布后不久，1月23日下午，另一家市场调研机构IDC的《全球人形机器人市场分析》也 在网上流传。该报告称，2025年人形机器人市场迎来爆发式增长，中国厂商正引领规模化商用进程，智 元在其中五个场景的出货量均列第一。 记者从IDC方面了解到，该报告尚未正式对外发布，正式版本预计后续公布。此外，有人形机器人厂商 向记者表示，上述榜单并未涵盖所有主要厂商，例如银河通用、加速进化、松延动力等企业，从公开数 据看，这些企业的出货数据也应"榜上有名"。 近期，围绕人形机器人"出货量第一"的讨论在行业内发酵，宇树科技的一则官方披露，更是将这一话题 推向舆论中心。 1月22日，宇树科技宣布，公司2025年全年人形机器人实际出货量超过5500台（指实际出售发货给终端 客户的数量，非订单数量），同期本体量产下线数量超过6500台。宇树强调，上述数据均为纯人形机器 人，不包含双臂轮式等其他形态产品。 这场"官方回应"的起点，源自1月中旬两家市场研究机构发布的统计报告。 1月8日，第三方调研机构Omdia发布报告称，智元机器人2025年人形机器人年度出货量超过5100台，占 据全球39%的市场份额，在出货量和市场份额两项 ...

Core Viewpoint - ByteDance is aggressively expanding in both AI cloud infrastructure and consumer applications, creating significant pressure on Alibaba and Tencent to increase investments by 2026 to defend their core markets [1][2]. Group 1: AI Cloud Market Dynamics - ByteDance's Volcano Engine has rapidly become the second-largest AI infrastructure provider in China, achieving a market share of 13% in AI cloud services by mid-2025, trailing only Alibaba's 23% [1][3]. - ByteDance is leveraging its first-mover advantage in AI to disrupt the long-standing dominance of Alibaba, Tencent, and Huawei in the cloud market [2][3]. - The company's strategy includes expanding its sales team and utilizing aggressive pricing to weaken competitors, focusing on selling AI products based on its extensive database and computing infrastructure [3][4]. Group 2: Consumer Application Impact - The shift in user behavior towards AI as a primary interface poses a risk of marginalizing traditional apps, as users may prefer to interact with AI first rather than using search engines [2][5]. - ByteDance's control over user engagement time is a critical advantage, as it can influence user actions during idle moments, positioning its AI applications favorably [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Implications for Competitors - Goldman Sachs identifies 2026 as a pivotal year for Chinese internet giants, emphasizing the need for Alibaba and Tencent to significantly increase their capital and operational expenditures in AI to maintain their market positions [2][8]. - The competition is not merely about technology but also about who can establish a "default entry point" for users, which will redefine traffic distribution and advertising budgets [8][9]. Group 4: Investment Logic Transformation - The investment landscape is expected to shift from valuing "visions" to focusing on profitability growth and new narratives by 2026, with an emphasis on "alpha" returns rather than mere valuation expansion [9][10]. - Investors are advised to prioritize metrics related to "entry success rates" and the progress of transaction closures over emotional responses to models [10][11]. Group 5: The Nature of the AI Super Entry Battle - The AI super entry battle does not require all players to succeed; it only needs one dominant entry point, with others potentially becoming secondary features [12].