2025 年 10 月 10 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：86 分（过热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 1、《双融日报》2025-10-09 2、《双融日报》2025-09-30 3、《双融日报》2025-09-29 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 86 分，市场情绪处于"过热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：人工智能、有色金属、储能 1、人工智能主题：阿里集团董事兼首席执行官吴泳铭 9 月 24 日在 2025 云栖大会上表示，大模型是下一代操作系统， 而 AI 云是下一代计算机，也许未来全世界只会有五六个超级 云计算平台。目前阿里正积极推进 3800 亿元的 AI 基础设施 建设，并计划追加更大的投入。相关标的：工业富联 （601138）、中际旭创（300308） 2、有色金属主题：印尼格拉斯伯格矿区因山体滑坡推迟复工 至 2026 年上半年，引发铜供应担忧， ...

2025 年 10 月 09 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：61 分（较热） ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：人工智能、有色金属、储能 1、人工智能主题：阿里集团董事兼首席执行官吴泳铭 9 月 24 日在 2025 云栖大会上表示，大模型是下一代操作系统， 而 AI 云是下一代计算机，也许未来全世界只会有五六个超级 云计算平台。目前阿里正积极推进 3800 亿元的 AI 基础设施 建设，并计划追加更大的投入。相关标的：工业富联 （601138）、中际旭创（300308） 2、有色金属主题：印尼格拉斯伯格矿区因山体滑坡推迟复工 至 2026 年上半年，引发铜供应担忧，推升国际铜价。国内铜 冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争导致加工费持续低迷，行业呼吁自 律减产，进一步强化供给收缩预期。供需两端共振，驱动有 色金属价格上行。相关标的：紫金矿业（601899）、江西铜 业（600362） 3、储能主题：国内《新型储能专项行动方案》明确 2027 年 装机 1.8 亿千瓦，撬动 2500 亿元直接投资，容量补偿、现货 价差等政策将项目 IR ...

贝壳 机场的广告牌往往可以看出当下市场的潮流和重点。今年以来，新京报贝壳财经记者在途经北京、上海、深圳、 杭州的机场时发现，与AI云相关的广告牌数量大幅增加，投放的厂商包括阿里云、火山引擎、百度智能云、华为 云、京东云等。 在这背后是国内AI云市场爆发，今年9月，国际权威市场调研机构Omida与国际数据公司IDC分别对此出具了报 告。IDC披露，2025年上半年中国公有云上大模型调用量实现了近400%的增长。而Omdia则根据不同口径预测， 2025年中国AI云市场预计增长148%。 这两份报告还分别分析了国内AI云服务商的市场格局，贝壳财经记者注意到，一些机场广告牌的广告语正出自报 告中提及的数据。细分来看，目前阿里云在云市场的规模位居第一，而火山引擎则依靠MaaS的快速增长排名第 二，成为"挑战者"。不过，AI云市场能够快速增长的一大原因，则来自于DeepSeek这条"鲇鱼"。 01 两个"第一"背后： 统计口径不同 图片来源：Omdia《中国AI云市场，1H25》报告 其中，阿里云的数据来自Omdia《中国AI云市场，1H25》报告。该报告显示，2025年上半年中国AI云市场规模达 223亿元，阿里云以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Hong Kong stocks, particularly after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, is attributed to a combination of low valuations, AI performance explosion, and increased capital inflow, making it a prime investment opportunity [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September has triggered a global liquidity shift, leading to increased investments in Hong Kong stocks, which are seen as undervalued and growth-oriented [4][5]. - Southbound capital inflow reached a record high of over 160 billion in September, with total annual inflow expected to exceed 1 trillion, indicating a strong demand for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the internet and AI sectors [5][6]. Group 2: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio that is 30% lower than its historical average, presenting a rare buying opportunity for investors [6]. - The combination of the Federal Reserve's rate cut and the realization of AI earnings has transformed Hong Kong stocks from being overlooked to highly sought after, with a significant shift in market sentiment [6][16]. Group 3: AI Sector Developments - Major internet companies are heavily investing in AI, with Alibaba restructuring its business to focus on e-commerce, cloud, and AI, and reporting triple-digit growth in AI revenue for eight consecutive quarters [10]. - Companies like Tencent and JD.com are also making substantial investments in AI infrastructure and self-developed chips, which are crucial for reducing costs and enhancing performance in AI applications [11][12][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current market environment for Hong Kong stocks is characterized by a return to growth, driven by AI and significant capital inflows, suggesting a sustained upward trend in the near future [16]. - Investors are encouraged to stay informed about industry dynamics and policy changes to capitalize on the ongoing opportunities in the Hong Kong market [16][17].

2025 年 09 月 30 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：81 分（过热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 3、储能主题：国内《新型储能专项行动方案》明确 2027 年 装机 1.8 亿千瓦，撬动 2500 亿元直接投资，容量补偿、现货 价差等政策将项目 IRR 推升至 8%以上，投资由"强制配储" 转为"主动盈利"；海外订单 2025H1 同比暴增 220%，达 160 GWh，电芯排产已现加价抢购，供需格局或扭转。相关标的： 宁德时代（300750）、阳光电源（300274） ▌ 风险提示 宏观经济意外下滑、地缘政治风险、流动性收紧超预期、行 业政策低于预期。 策 略 研 1、《双融日报》2025-09-29 2、《双融日报》2025-09-26 3、《双融日报》2025-09-25 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（过热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 81 分，市场情绪处于"过热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可 ...

2025 年 09 月 29 日 双融日报 最近一年大盘走势 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 相关研究 1、《双融日报》2025-09-26 2、《双融日报》2025-09-25 3、《双融日报》2025-09-24 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 39 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：39 分（较冷） 今日热点主题：人工智能、有色金属、储能 1、人工智能主题：阿里集团董事兼首席执行官吴泳铭 9 月 24 日在 2025 云栖大会上表示，大模型是下一代操作系统， 而 AI 云是下一代计算机，也许未来全世界只会有五六个超级 云计算平台。目前阿里正积极推进 3800 亿元的 AI 基础设施 建设，并计划追加更大的投入。相关标的：工业富联 （601138）、中际旭创（300308） 2、有色金属主题：印尼格拉斯伯格矿区因山体滑坡推迟复工 至 ...

最近看AI云领域的新闻，发现两个挺有意思的点，一是阿里云高管声称到2032年它全球数据中心的能 耗，要比2022年涨十倍。 可另一方面，盈利难题一直没解决，从2012年成立到现在13年，就没赚过钱，2021到2024年累计亏了84 亿，2025上半年又亏了7.7亿，比去年还多了7.81%，资产负债率也从68.7%升到71.6%，越来越依赖外部 钱。 有人可能会说，AI行业初期不都烧钱吗？这话没错，技术研发和建基建本来就慢，不能用普通公司马 上赚钱的标准要求。 但金山云它太依赖融资了，2025年4月刚募了超20亿港元，这次又要募27亿，如果后面现金流跟不上， 很可能陷入投钱，亏损，再募资的循环，这才是投资者真正担心的。 在阿里、腾讯这些巨头面前，二三线云服务商想活下来，总得有自己的独门武器，金山云选的路是绑紧 生态。截至2025年6月，金山软件持股35.59%，小米持股11.12%，雷军是实控人，这次配股后控制权也 没动。 这可不是单纯耗电大了，而是整个行业对算力的需求疯涨，大模型训练一次得数十亿参数运算，工厂搞 智能生产、医院搞AI诊断，都得靠云服务商的基建撑着，不加码根本跟不上。 另一个是金山云，刚宣布要配 ...

2025年，中国"AI云"市场的话语权争夺变得日益激烈。 "AI云"是一个新事物，它不像云计算（IaaS基础设施+PaaS平台软件+SaaS应用软件）有着清晰的定义、范围和统计方法。如何划分、界定"AI云"，目前尚 无明确共识。 北京首都机场，阿里云、字节跳动旗下云服务火山引擎、百度智能云的广告占据了醒目位置。阿里云的广告标语是"AI云市场份额领先，超过第2-4名总 和"，火山引擎的广告标语是"占中国公有云大模型市场份额46%"。百度智能云的广告标语是"连续六年中国AI公有云市场份额领先"。 有关"谁是第一"这件事，每家云厂商都在选择对自己有利的统计口径。 理由是，它们在不同机构（如国际市场调研机构IDC、国际市场调研机构Omdia、国际市场调研机构沙利文）的市场调研报告中，在某一个细分市场位居 首位。 IDC、Omdia、沙利文，这三家机构2025年至少公布了七份有关AI云市场的调研报告。 IDC公布了五份AI云市场的调研报告，是目前调研口径最全、最细的市场调研机构。Omdia公布了一份AI云市场的调研报告，调研口径是"AI云市场"。沙 利文公布了一份AI云市场的调研报告，调研口径是"企业级大模型调用市场" ...

Core Viewpoint - The increasing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) computing power is driving a financing boom among technology giants, with significant bond issuances to support investments in AI and cloud computing [1][3][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuances - Oracle launched an $18 billion investment-grade bond issuance on September 24, marking the second-largest transaction in the U.S. bond market this year, with peak subscription demand nearing $88 billion [1][3]. - Oracle's total bond issuance in 2023 exceeds $25 billion, establishing it as a benchmark operation in the bond market [3]. - Alphabet completed a $5 billion multi-term bond issuance in April, while Apple issued $4.5 billion in May, both aimed at securing long-term funding for AI and cloud initiatives [4]. Group 2: AI Infrastructure Investments - Oracle's financing coincides with its execution of large-scale cloud infrastructure contracts with clients like OpenAI, which has signed a $300 billion deal for computing power over five years [3]. - The CEO of Oracle reported a 359% year-over-year increase in remaining performance obligations, reflecting strong demand for AI-driven cloud infrastructure [3]. - Alibaba is investing $58 billion in AI infrastructure, while Nvidia and OpenAI are collaborating on a strategic partnership to build AI data centers with a capacity of at least 10GW [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts global spending on AI data centers and chips will reach $2.9 trillion by 2028, with a significant portion requiring debt financing to cover a $1.5 trillion gap [7]. - Analysts suggest that the race to develop superintelligent AI will define the next technological era, with companies that excel in infrastructure and application development becoming industry leaders [7].

Group 1: Climate and Energy Policy - President Xi Jinping announced that by 2035, China's greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 7%-10% from peak levels, with non-fossil energy consumption exceeding 30% of total energy consumption[2] - The total installed capacity of wind and solar power is targeted to exceed six times that of 2020, aiming for 360 million kilowatts[2] - The national carbon trading market will cover major high-emission industries, enhancing China's contribution to global climate governance[2] Group 2: Economic Measures and Financial Tools - A new policy financial tool with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan is set to support projects across eight key sectors, aimed at stabilizing growth amid economic pressures[3] - The State Council emphasizes China's commitment to multilateral trade systems, countering rising unilateralism and protectionism in global economic cooperation[2] Group 3: Energy Market Performance - In August 2025, the national electricity market transaction volume reached 655 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%[4] - From January to August 2025, cumulative electricity market transactions totaled 4,344.2 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 63.2% of total electricity consumption, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year[4] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Alibaba's CEO announced a significant investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, positioning the company as a leader in AI technology development[4] - The National Energy Administration is promoting the upgrade of the photovoltaic industry to address "involution" competition, indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics[4] Group 5: Market Trends - The latest 10-year government bond yield is 1.897%, with a change of 1.98 basis points, while the DR007 rate is at 1.586%, changing by 11.10 basis points[5] - The USDCNH exchange rate is currently at 7.1379, reflecting a 0.34% increase, and the US dollar index stands at 97.87, up by 0.65%[7]