Group 1 - Gold-related stocks collectively declined on Wednesday, with Harmony Gold (HMY.US) down over 4.5%, Gold Fields (GFI.US) down over 1.4%, Kinross Gold (KGC.US) down 0.68%, Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) down over 1.6%, and Coeur Mining (CDE.US) down over 1.7% [1] - Spot gold continued its downward trend from the previous day, currently down over 2.6%, priced at $4016 [1]

Core Insights - Barrick Mining Corporation and Newmont Corporation are two leading gold mining companies with extensive global operations and diversified portfolios, making them relevant for investors amid rising gold prices driven by economic uncertainties [1][11]. Gold Market Overview - Gold prices have surged to unprecedented levels this year, reaching over $4,000 per ton, primarily due to safe-haven demand amid global trade tensions, geopolitical issues, a weak dollar, and increased central bank purchases [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and concerns over the labor market and U.S.-China trade tensions have further fueled this rally, with gold prices increasing approximately 56% year-to-date [3]. Barrick Mining Corporation - Barrick is advancing key growth projects, including Goldrush and the Lumwana Super Pit expansion, which are expected to significantly enhance production [5][7]. - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Reko Diq project in Pakistan is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually starting in 2028 [6]. - Barrick's liquidity position is strong, with cash and cash equivalents around $4.8 billion and operating cash flows of approximately $1.3 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase [8]. - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 and has a dividend yield of 1.7% with a sustainable payout ratio of 25% [9][10]. - However, Barrick faces challenges with rising costs, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs increasing by approximately 17% and 12% year-over-year, respectively [12][13]. Newmont Corporation - Newmont is strategically investing in growth projects, including the Ahafo North expansion and the Cadia Panel Caves, which are expected to enhance production capacity [15]. - The Ahafo North project is anticipated to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces of gold annually, with commercial production planned for late 2025 [16]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining has strengthened Newmont's portfolio, generating $500 million in annual run-rate synergies [17]. - Newmont has a robust liquidity position with $10.2 billion in total liquidity and $6.2 billion in cash and cash equivalents, alongside a free cash flow of $1.7 billion [20]. - The company has distributed around $2 billion to shareholders and has a dividend yield of 1.1% with a payout ratio of 20% [21]. Comparative Analysis - Year-to-date, Barrick's stock has risen by 103.2%, while Newmont's stock has increased by 131.9%, both underperforming compared to the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's growth of 136% [23]. - Newmont trades at a premium with a forward earnings multiple of 13.91, while Barrick trades at 12.57, representing a 23% discount to the industry average [25][26]. - Newmont's return on equity stands at 17.9%, significantly higher than Barrick's 8.2%, indicating more efficient use of shareholder funds [27]. - The consensus estimates for 2025 suggest Barrick's sales and EPS will grow by 19.4% and 65.1%, respectively, while Newmont's growth is projected at 11.3% and 60.1% [29][32]. Investment Outlook - Both companies are well-positioned to benefit from favorable gold prices, with strong project pipelines and financial health. However, Barrick's higher production costs and declining production outlook may pose risks, making Newmont a more favorable investment option at this time [33].

Core Insights - Investor sentiment is currently bullish due to strong third-quarter earnings, despite concerns over a government shutdown and economic data blackout [1] - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates in response to a deteriorating labor market, creating challenges for retail investors in stock selection [1] Investment Recommendations - Stocks such as Newmont Corporation (NEM), Commercial Metals Company (CMC), and Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2] - Broker recommendations can provide valuable insights, but should not be the sole basis for investment decisions [4] Stock Performance and Projections - Newmont Corporation is expected to see a 60.1% year-over-year increase in earnings for 2025, with a 4.8% upward revision in broker ratings [7] - Commercial Metals Company is projected to experience a 67.4% increase in earnings for fiscal 2026, with an 8.3% upward revision in broker ratings [9] - Cenovus Energy is forecasted to have a 10.7% rise in earnings for 2025, with a 6.3% upward revision in broker ratings [10] Screening Strategy - A screening strategy is proposed to identify potential winners, focusing on stocks with broker rating upgrades of 1% or more, trading above $5, and an average 20-day volume greater than 100,000 [5] - Stocks with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and a VGM Score of A or B are suggested for better upside potential [6]

Core Viewpoint - Investors who withdrew $669 million from the largest ETF tracking gold mining giants appear to have made a wise decision following a significant drop in gold prices, which fell 6.3% on Tuesday, marking the largest single-day decline in over 12 years [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF experienced a 9.4% drop on Tuesday, the largest single-day decline since March 2020 [1] - Major gold mining companies such as Newmont Corporation (NEM.US), Agnico Eagle Mines, and Barrick Gold (B.US) all saw declines exceeding 9% [1] - Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines lost back over a week’s worth of gains in just one day, while Barrick Gold reversed a month’s worth of gains [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a growing skepticism among investors regarding the sustainability of the recent surge in gold prices, with significant capital outflows from the VanEck Gold Miners ETF indicating doubts about the rally [2] - The ETF saw its largest monthly outflow in five months, with $668.6 million withdrawn in September [2] - Despite the outflows, the ETF has still risen 115% year-to-date, with Newmont's stock up 131% in the same period [2] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Analysts express concerns that the gold sector's rapid price increases may be unsustainable, with some suggesting that the current market conditions resemble a "blow-off top" [2] - Nancy Tengler, CEO of Laffer Tengler Investments, notes that the current situation in the gold market is troubling, as it has become a "no-risk trade" with no one questioning its valuation [3] - John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, believes that while short-term volatility will remain high, the long-term outlook for gold mining stocks remains strong due to decreasing costs and high gold prices [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Upcoming earnings reports from major gold mining companies, including Newmont and Agnico Eagle Mines, are anticipated to show strong performance due to favorable market conditions [7] - Despite the bullish sentiment in the derivatives market, where options trading volume for SPDR Gold Shares reached a record high, there are concerns that a stronger dollar could trigger a sell-off in gold mining stocks [7]

Core Insights - General Motors (GM) shares surged 15% following better-than-expected third-quarter sales and adjusted profit, marking the best performance in the S&P 500 [3][8] - The automotive giant reduced its forecast on tariff costs, indicating a quicker adjustment to tariffs than anticipated by analysts [3] - GM announced a $1.6 billion loss related to a reevaluation of its electric vehicle strategy due to regulatory changes [3] Company Performance - Halliburton (HAL) exceeded third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates, with shares rising approximately 12% [4] - Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) shares increased by 11% after announcing a strategic review amid interest from potential buyers [5] - Philip Morris International (PM) reported third-quarter revenue and adjusted EPS above forecasts, yet shares fell 3.8% due to high investment levels [9] - Quest Diagnostics (DGX) shares declined 3.1% despite beating revenue and adjusted EPS forecasts, as the company lowered its full-year guidance for reported EPS [10] Market Trends - Major U.S. equities indexes ended the day mixed, with the S&P 500 little changed, the Dow rising 0.5%, and the Nasdaq retreating 0.2% [2] - Gold prices fell over 5%, impacting shares of Newmont (NEM), which dropped more than 9%, the largest decline among S&P 500 stocks [6][8]

Market Performance - The US stock market showed mixed performance on October 21, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 300 points, reaching a new historical high, while the Nasdaq approached flat and the S&P 500 saw a slight increase [2][3]. - Strong earnings reports from companies like Coca-Cola and 3M contributed significantly to the rise in the Dow, with Coca-Cola's stock increasing by 3.7% and 3M's by nearly 5% [3]. Company Earnings - Coca-Cola reported earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, leading to a stock price increase to $70.97, up by 3.7% [4][5]. - General Motors saw a significant stock increase of over 15% after raising its full-year earnings guidance and reducing the expected impact of tariffs on its annual performance, estimating it could offset about 35% of the impact [10]. Earnings Season Insights - Over three-quarters of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have exceeded expectations, with major tech companies expected to contribute significantly to profit growth [13]. - The so-called "seven giants" in the tech sector are projected to see a profit increase of 14.9% year-over-year, compared to 6.7% for the remaining 493 companies [13]. Commodity Market - There was a notable drop in gold and silver prices on October 21, attributed to a strong US dollar making these precious metals more expensive for buyers [15][24]. - Analysts indicated that significant price fluctuations following a strong rally often signal a potential substantial correction, which can induce panic among investors [16][24].

Headwater Gold (CSE: HWG) says its exploration permit on the Spring Peak project in Nevada has been selected as part of the FAST-41 program, a US federal initiative designed to streamline approvals for vital infrastructure related to mining projects.In a press release on Monday, the Canadian-listed gold junior confirmed that the exploration project, referred to as the Burnt Rock Plan of Operations, will now appear on the FAST-41 project dashboard. This inclusion would provide for “transparent and efficient ...

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold experienced a significant decline of 5.4%, marking the largest drop since August 2020, which has negatively impacted gold-related stocks [1] Company Performance - Coeur Mining (CDE.US) saw a nearly 17% drop in its stock price [1] - Harmony Gold (HMY.US) experienced an 11% decline [1] - Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) fell by over 9% [1] - Barrick Gold (B.US) also dropped nearly 9% [1]

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 23, with anticipated benefits from higher gold prices despite cost challenges [1][6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $1.27 per share, reflecting a 56.8% year-over-year increase, while revenues are projected at $4.97 billion, indicating an 8% rise from the previous year [2] Earnings Performance - NEM has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 32.8% [3] - The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.32% and holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting a high likelihood of an earnings beat this quarter [4][5] Factors Influencing Q3 Results - Higher gold prices are expected to positively impact NEM's top line and margins, with average realized prices estimated at $3,357 per ounce, a 33.3% year-over-year increase [6][9] - The company's strategic focus on Tier 1 assets is anticipated to support growth, despite rising production costs [10] Market Conditions - Gold prices have surged approximately 17% in the third quarter and about 65% year-to-date, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions, a weak dollar, and increased central bank purchases [8] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have further fueled the rally in gold prices [8] Cost Considerations - NEM is facing higher unit costs, with costs applicable to sales and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) rising around 6% and 2% year-over-year, respectively [11] - Sustaining capital spending is expected to increase significantly in the third quarter due to planned investments [11] Stock Performance and Valuation - NEM's shares have increased by 61.8% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 70.1% rise but outperforming the S&P 500's 16.3% increase [12] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 15.29, slightly below the peer group average of 15.49 [15] Investment Thesis - Newmont is positioned for growth with a strong project portfolio that is expected to enhance production capacity and extend mine life [19] - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited is anticipated to create significant shareholder value and synergies [19] - NEM's robust liquidity and cash flow generation capabilities support its growth initiatives and shareholder value [20] Conclusion - Investing in NEM stock ahead of its earnings announcement is seen as a compelling opportunity due to its strong market position, financial health, and favorable growth outlook [21]

Group 1 - Newmont Mining Corporation is expected to report quarterly revenues of approximately $5.2 billion, driven by increased gold and copper prices and stable production levels [2] - The company has a current market capitalization of $104 billion, with total revenue for the past twelve months at $21 billion, operating profits of $8.0 billion, and net income of $6.3 billion [3] - Margins may face slight pressure due to rising labor and energy costs, as well as persistent inflation in mining supplies, despite stronger precious metal prices expected to bolster operating cash flow [2] Group 2 - Historical data shows that over the last five years, Newmont has recorded 16 earnings data points, with 5 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 31% of the time [6] - The median of the 5 positive returns is 2.0%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -4.6% [6] - A strategy based on understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be beneficial for traders [7]