From a technical perspective, Newmont Corporation (NEM) is looking like an interesting pick, as it just reached a key level of support. NEM recently overtook the 20-day moving average, and this suggests a short-term bullish trend.The 20-day simple moving average is a popular investing tool. Traders like this SMA because it offers a look back at a stock's price over a shorter period and helps smooth out price fluctuations. The 20-day can also show more trend reversal signals than longer-term moving averages. ...

Key Points - The article highlights significant stock movements in the Hong Kong and US markets, with various companies experiencing notable gains and losses due to recent developments and announcements [1][2][3][4][5] Hong Kong Market Highlights - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) surged nearly 20%, with a year-to-date increase of 320%, as the company proposed a spin-off of its gold segment for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - Innovent Biologics (09969) rose nearly 4% after announcing the clinical approval of its new ADC innovative drug ICP-B794 [1] - North Sea Kangcheng - B (01228) increased over 50%, with its stock price doubling in three days, marking it as a rare disease stock in the Hong Kong market [1] - Hong Kong Travel (00308) saw a rise of over 24%, achieving a year-to-date stock price doubling, driven by market speculation on stablecoin cross-border payment scenarios [1] - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) gained nearly 3% after receiving drug registration approval for Mesalazine enteric-coated tablets, enhancing its product line in the immune system treatment sector [1] - Ruian Real Estate (00272) rose over 4%, with a cumulative contract property sales amount for the first six months increasing by 457% year-on-year [1] - Cornerstone Pharmaceuticals - B (02616) increased over 3%, planning to raise HKD 467 million for clinical research on CS2009 [1] - Q Technology (01478) rose over 7%, with mobile camera module sales of 32.648 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1] - Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419) increased by 6%, with a new cycle logic continuing to strengthen, and Tianfeng Securities set a target price of HKD 154 [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750) rose over 3%, reaching a new high since its listing, following a deepened strategic cooperation agreement with Geely Automobile [2] - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with Wynn Macau (01128) up 6.49%, New World Development (00200) up 6.15%, and others showing similar gains [2] - Gold stocks faced declines, with Golden Resources (GORO.US) dropping nearly 10% and others following suit [4] US Market Highlights - Stablecoin concept stocks continued to rise, with Tiger Brokers (TIGR.US) increasing over 8% [4] - Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) rose over 2% as the company seeks SEC approval for a blue-chip cryptocurrency ETF [4] - Wolfspeed (WOLF.US) continued to rise, with stock prices increasing over 9% [4] - Intel (INTC.US) rose over 7% after announcing company-wide layoffs [4] - JD.com (JD.US) increased over 2% as it launched its "Double Hundred Plan" for its delivery service [4]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for companies IGO, NST, NEM, CMM, BGL, VAU, WGX, and PNR, while recommending a "Sell" rating for MIN and RRL [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential upside for various companies based on their current pricing and NAV valuations, with IGO showing a 2% downside to its price target and NST having a 14% upside [4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of gold and lithium sectors, with specific companies positioned favorably for growth [4][8]. Company Summaries - **IGO**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$2.1 billion, current price A$4.32, and a 12-month price target of A$5.03, indicating a 2% downside [4]. - **NST**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$17.4 billion, current price A$18.56, and a 12-month price target of A$22.53, indicating a 14% upside [4]. - **NEM**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$66.7 billion, current price A$90.58, and a 12-month price target of A$98.83, indicating a 7% upside [4]. - **CMM**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$2.7 billion, current price A$9.44, and a 12-month price target of A$10.09, indicating a 6% upside [4]. - **BGL**: Rated "Buy" with a market cap of US$0.9 billion, current price A$0.93, and a 12-month price target of A$0.97, indicating a 29% upside [4]. - **MIN**: Rated "Sell" with a market cap of US$3.2 billion, current price A$24.44, and a 12-month price target of A$20.30, indicating an 18% downside [4]. - **RRL**: Rated "Sell" with a market cap of US$2.2 billion, current price A$4.53, and a 12-month price target of A$4.24, indicating a 1% downside [4]. Commodity & FX Forecasts - The report includes forecasts for various commodities, with gold expected to reach US$3,503 per ounce in Q4 2025 and lithium carbonate projected at US$8,005 per ton in 2025 [8]. - Nickel prices are forecasted to stabilize around US$7.17 per pound in Q4 2025, while copper is expected to be around US$4.52 per pound [8].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Newmont Mining will reduce its workforce at the Merian mine in Suriname by 10-15% due to a decline in production [1] Group 2 - The company plans to lay off approximately 1550 employees at the Merian mine [1]

Market Overview - Wall Street reached record-high levels, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite increasing by 5%, 10.6%, and 17.8% respectively in Q2 2025, marking it as the best quarter for U.S. stocks in the past year [1] - The small-cap benchmark, Russell 2000, also saw an 8.3% gain [1] - Positive market sentiment was driven by expectations of key trade deals and reduced fears of a near-term recession in the U.S. economy [2] Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks with favorable Zacks Rank and momentum for Q3 include Jabil Inc. (JBL), Newmont Corp. (NEM), HEICO Corp. (HEI), Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK), and The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL), all holding a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [3] Jabil Inc. (JBL) - Jabil is experiencing strong momentum in capital equipment, AI-powered data centers, cloud, and digital commerce sectors, with a focus on product diversification [6] - The company has a high free cash flow, indicating efficient financial management and operational efficiency [7] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the next year are 5.9% and 18.5% respectively, with a 9% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings over the last 30 days [8] Newmont Corp. (NEM) - Newmont is progressing with growth projects, including the Tanami expansion and the Ahafo North project, with a commitment of $950 million to $1,050 million in development capital [10][11] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 2% and 24.1% respectively, with a 3.3% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 30 days [11] HEICO Corp. (HEI) - HEICO is benefiting from increased orders for aftermarket replacement parts and repair services due to rising air travel and solid U.S. defense funding [12][13] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 13.2% and 23.4% respectively, with a 1.1% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 30 days [14] Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK) - Rockwell Automation is expanding its portfolio of hardware and software products, with investments in cloud technology supporting future growth [15] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the next year are 6.7% and 16.1% respectively, with a 0.3% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for next-year earnings over the last seven days [17] The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) - The Estée Lauder Companies is focused on profitability through its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan, emphasizing innovation and digital expansion [18] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 1.2% and 45.4% respectively, with a 0.5% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 30 days [20]

Core Insights - The stock market has experienced volatility in the first half of 2025, but several companies have shown impressive returns driven by AI momentum, energy sector strength, and bold corporate strategies [1] Company Performance - Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has achieved an 80.07% year-to-date return, significantly outperforming the broader market, driven by its growing role in AI and expanding government business [2][3] - NRG Energy (NRG) follows closely with a 77.99% gain, supported by strong Q1 earnings and the acquisition of natural gas power plants, which increased its generation capacity [6] - Howmet Aerospace (HWM) reported a 71.90% return, benefiting from the global rebound in air travel and rising demand for aircraft components [8] - Seagate Technology (STX) surged 66.20%, capitalizing on the growing need for data storage solutions for AI infrastructure [8] - Supermicro (SMCI) jumped 60.92%, driven by its role in building AI-optimized servers [8] - GE Vernova (GEV) climbed 60.87% amid increasing investor interest in renewables and grid modernization [10] - Newmont (NEM) gained 56.52%, driven by rising gold prices due to inflation concerns and a weaker dollar [10] - Uber (UBER) rose 54.71%, benefiting from strong performance in its mobility and delivery businesses [10] - GE Aerospace (GE) advanced 54.54% on strong demand in commercial and defense aviation [10] - CVS Health (CVS) increased by 53.00%, supported by restructuring efforts and a push into healthcare services [11] - Jabil (JBL) rose 51.47%, backed by steady demand in consumer electronics and automotive markets [11]

Core Viewpoint - The market narrative surrounding Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) is misled by short-term concerns such as high all-in sustaining costs (AISC) and disappointing production guidance, overlooking the significant internal transformations the company has undergone in the past 18 months [1][27] Strategic Transformation - Following the $16.8 billion acquisition of Newcrest, Newmont has become the world's leading gold producer, establishing four core competitive advantages: unmatched scale effects, enhanced bargaining power with suppliers, and long-term cost resilience [2][3] Asset Portfolio Revamp - The true value of acquiring Newcrest lies in the asset optimization it triggered, with Newmont divesting six non-core assets expected to yield up to $4.3 billion, thereby strengthening its balance sheet and focusing on ten core tier-one assets [3][4] Realization of Synergies - Newmont has already achieved $500 million in synergy targets ahead of schedule, with operational efficiencies expected to continue reducing costs as integration progresses [5][19] Geographic Risk Diversification - The acquisition has allowed Newmont to restructure its asset portfolio in stable jurisdictions, effectively mitigating geopolitical risks associated with mining operations [6][9] Value Convergence Effect - If gold prices remain above $3,000 per ounce, the combined advantages of procurement, asset quality, operational synergies, and geographic stability will lead to unexpected profitability and margin growth [7][10] Gold Market Dynamics - Central bank gold purchases have been a significant driver of the current gold bull market, with 244 tons bought in Q1 2025, reflecting a strategic shift towards de-dollarization amid geopolitical tensions [11][12] Supply Constraints - The gold supply side faces unprecedented bottlenecks, with insufficient exploration investment and resource nationalism increasing operational challenges, leading to a structural supply-demand gap that supports high gold prices [13][14] Cash Flow Analysis - Newmont's free cash flow (FCF) generation capability is a core indicator of its transformation, with record FCF of $1.2 billion in Q1 2025, driven by high gold prices and optimized operations [19][20] Shareholder Returns - Newmont has established a shareholder-centric capital allocation model, maintaining a stable dividend and aggressive share buybacks, which enhance shareholder value and support stock price [21][23] Valuation Analysis - Despite its strong cash flow generation capabilities, Newmont's current valuation is significantly lower than historical averages, indicating potential upside as the market begins to recognize its long-term value creation narrative [24][27]

Core Viewpoint - The current narrative surrounding Newmont Corporation (NEM) is overly focused on high All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) and the integration process of Newcrest, which may overlook other important factors affecting the company's performance [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Newmont's AISC remains high at approximately $1650 per ounce, indicating ongoing cost pressures in its operations [1]. Group 2: Strategic Integration - The integration of Newcrest has not progressed as expected, which could impact Newmont's operational efficiency and future growth potential [1].

Group 1: Market Performance - Major U.S. equities indexes gained, with the S&P 500 advancing 0.5% to a record closing high, and the Nasdaq Composite also reaching its highest-ever closing level with a 0.5% gain [2][10] - The Dow increased by 1% on the same day [2] Group 2: Trade Developments - U.S. and China agreed on a trade framework, confirming earlier details, while President Trump ended trade talks with Canada [3] Group 3: Company Performances - Nike shares surged 15% after reporting smaller-than-expected sales and profit declines, indicating progress in its turnaround plan under CEO Elliott Hill [4] - Boeing shares rose 5.9% following trade progress with China, with analysts upgrading the stock to "buy" due to improved production and financial outlook [5] - Equinix shares gained 5.3% despite previous losses, benefiting from demand for data center services driven by AI adoption [6] - Palantir Technologies shares fell over 9% due to easing geopolitical tensions and a decrease in the Department of Defense's budget request for fiscal 2026 [7] - Coinbase Global shares dropped 5.8% after ARK Innovation ETF sold 33,000 shares, despite recent positive developments in the crypto space [8] - Enphase Energy shares declined 4.9% after a reversal of gains related to Senate budget bill discussions affecting solar companies [9] - Newmont shares fell 4.1% as gold prices decreased amid improved U.S.-China trade relations [10]

2024 Performance & 2025 Guidance - The company delivered 68Moz of gold and 153kt of copper in 2024[7] - The company generated $29B in free cash flow[7] - The company returned $11B to shareholders through quarterly dividends[9] - The company returned $12B to shareholders through share repurchases[9] - The company retired $14B in debt, reaching reduction target[11] Production Growth & Investment - Joint venture partner has guided to delivering ~20% more gold in 2027 from Nevada Gold Mines (385%) and Pueblo Viejo (40%)[30] - Lihir is expected to deliver at least ~30% more gold in 2028 due to higher grades from Phase 14a layback[31] - Peñasquito anticipates delivering ~30% more gold in 2025[31] - Boddington expects to deliver ~30% more gold production in 2027 as stripping is completed in 2026[32] - Tanami expansion is expected to deliver ~35% more gold beginning in 2028[32] 2025 Guidance - Managed operations gold production is guided at 42Moz, with non-managed operations contributing 14Moz, totaling 56Moz for the Tier 1 portfolio[47] - Managed operations gold CAS is guided at $1170/oz, with non-managed operations at $1240/oz, resulting in $1180/oz for the total Tier 1 portfolio[47] - Managed operations gold AISC is guided at $1630/oz, with non-managed operations at $1555/oz, resulting in $1620/oz for the total Tier 1 portfolio[47] - Sustaining capital for managed operations is projected at $15B, and $03B for non-managed operations, totaling $18B[47] - Development capital is projected at $11B for managed operations and $02B for non-managed operations, totaling $13B[47] Capital Allocation & Divestiture Program - The company targets maintaining financial flexibility with cash above $30B[48] - The company targets an investment-grade balance sheet with debt below $80B[48] - The company anticipates ~$18B for sustaining capital in 2025, working to decrease to ~$15B by 2028[48] - The company has a $30B share repurchase program authorized through October 2026[48] - The company expects ~$25B in net cash in 2025 from announced sales[7]