Economic Reports - The delayed November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is expected on Thursday, skipping the October report due to a government shutdown, with the last September report showing +2.8% for both headline and core PCE [4] - The quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 2025 is also due on Thursday, with a first revision expected to align with the previously announced +4.3%, a significant improvement compared to the -0.6% reported in Q1 2025 [5] - Initial Jobless Claims are anticipated to rise above +200K, from +198K reported last week, indicating a "no hire, no fire" environment despite weaknesses in monthly job numbers [6] Q4 Earnings Reports - Q4 earnings season begins this week, with key reports from 3M and D.R. Horton before the market opens, and from Netflix, United Airlines, and Interactive Brokers Group after the market closes [7] - Interactive Brokers is rated as a buy (Zacks Rank 2), with expected growth of +2% on earnings and +4.3% on revenues [8] - Netflix, rated as a hold (Zacks Rank 3), is projected to achieve +27.9% growth in earnings and +16.8% in revenues as it expands globally [8] - D.R. Horton aims to exceed expectations of -25% earnings growth and -12% revenue decline [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The trading week begins on Tuesday, January 19th, 2026, with the market closed on Monday for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day [1] - The delayed November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is expected on Thursday, skipping the October report due to a government shutdown [4] - The quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3 2025 is also due on Thursday, with expectations for a revision in line with the previously announced +4.3% growth [5] Group 2: Job Market Insights - Initial Jobless Claims are anticipated to rise above +200K, from +198K reported last week, indicating a stable jobless claims environment despite weak monthly job numbers [6] Group 3: Q4 Earnings Reports - Q4 earnings season begins with reports from 3M (MMM) and D.R. Horton (DHI) before the market opens, and from Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), and Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) after the market closes [7] - Interactive Brokers is expected to grow by +2% on its bottom line and +4.3% on the top, holding a buy rating [9] - Netflix aims for +27.9% growth in earnings and +16.8% in revenues, continuing its expansion into global markets, holding a hold rating [9] - D.R. Horton is expected to improve on a -25% earnings growth forecast with -12% revenues [9]

Core Viewpoint - Market participants are focusing on the quality of Netflix's growth, emphasizing durable profitability and predictable cash generation rather than just revenue expansion [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Netflix reported revenue of $11.51 billion, reflecting a 17% year-over-year increase, aligning with its guidance [2] - The operating margin was reported at 28%, which was below the guided 31.5%, attracting investor scrutiny [3] Margin Analysis - The margin shortfall was attributed to a one-off tax charge related to a Brazilian tax dispute, rather than a decline in underlying performance [4] - Without this tax charge, Netflix's operating income and margins would have exceeded guidance, indicating that the fundamentals remain strong [4] Tax Charge Details - The tax, known as the Contribution for Intervention in the Economic Domain (CIDE), applies to certain outbound payments from Brazilian entities to foreign companies, affecting Netflix's operations in Brazil [5] - A recent ruling by Brazil's Supreme Court broadened the interpretation of transactions subject to this tax, prompting Netflix to reassess its legal exposure and record an expense covering 2022 through Q3 2025 [6] Implications for Traders - Approximately 80% of the tax charge relates to prior years, limiting its impact on future margins, and management does not expect this issue to materially affect future results [7]

Core Engagement and Performance - Netflix achieved its highest-ever viewing share in the U.S. at 8.6% and in the U.K. at 9.4%, indicating strong performance in key markets [1] - Since the end of 2022, viewing share has increased by 15% in the U.S. and 22% in the U.K., suggesting sustained competitive gains [2] Importance of Engagement Metrics - Engagement metrics are crucial for Netflix's monetization, enhancing pricing power, reducing churn risk, and improving advertising effectiveness [3] - Higher engagement allows Netflix to raise prices selectively without significant subscriber losses [3] Advertising Business Growth - Netflix's advertising business had its strongest quarter in Q3 2025, with record ad sales and a doubling of U.S. upfront commitments [5] - Upfront commitments will contribute to revenue starting late 2025 and into 2026, improving forecast reliability [6] Structural Drivers of Advertising Growth - Netflix offers a unique combination of global scale, engaged audiences, and advanced buying tools for advertisers [7] - The company has transitioned from an experimental phase to a more established execution phase in its advertising business [7] Future Advertising Roadmap - Netflix plans to enhance targeting and media planning tools globally and introduce more interactive ad formats [8] - Management expects advertising margins to expand as the advertising stack matures, despite potential near-term lag compared to subscription margins [9] Financial Guidance - For Q4 2025, Netflix anticipates revenue growth of 17% and an operating margin of 23.9%, with full-year revenue projected at $45.1 billion and a 29% operating margin [10][11] - The slight revision in revenue expectations is linked to tax issues rather than operational weaknesses [11] Upcoming Earnings Report Focus - The upcoming earnings report will focus on confirming margin normalization post-Brazil, continued advertising momentum, and durable engagement gains [12]

派拉蒙天空之舞与奈飞（Netflix）正在竞购华纳兄弟，其结果可能将重塑美国娱乐业的格局。 而此前表态既不支持派拉蒙也不支持Netflix的美国总 统特朗普，却被外界发现其家族近期购买了Netflix和华纳兄弟的债券，规模至多达200万美元。 12月17日，特朗普大女婿库什纳的私募基金公司突然退出派拉蒙收购华纳兄弟的收购集团，特朗普也公开表示，派拉蒙并不是他的朋友，奈飞也不 是。而此前的市场共识是，与特朗普交好的亿万富翁埃里森将帮助其子所在的派拉蒙赢得收购。 利益冲突 特朗普家族对华纳兄弟和Netflix的投资，再次引发了利益冲突担忧。圣克拉拉大学马克库拉应用伦理学中心领导力伦理学高级总监Ann Skeet表示， 特朗普曾表示将直接参与相关收购的监管决策，这导致他的投资构成利益冲突。 明尼苏达大学法学院教授Richard Painter也指出，特朗普购买Netflix和华纳兄弟的债券只是一个缩影，他在加密货币问题上也存在利益冲突风险，历 任美国总统都会避免此类问题，但特朗普是最不以为意的一任总统。 据白宫最新披露的总统家族财务文件， 特朗普在派拉蒙及Netflix宣布收购华纳兄弟的数日后，购买了100万至20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are optimistic about the upcoming corporate earnings season, hoping strong results will counteract rising political and macroeconomic uncertainties [8]. Group 1: Corporate Earnings - Major companies such as Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and Intel are scheduled to report earnings this week, following early results from banks and financial institutions [8]. - Earnings for S&P 500 companies are projected to grow by more than 15% in 2026, indicating positive expectations for corporate performance [8]. Group 2: Market Performance - Major U.S. equity indexes have extended gains into the new year, although they experienced a slight decline this week, with the S&P 500 remaining close to record highs [2][8]. - The banking sector faced pressure last week, with shares of major lenders like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo falling despite strong performance in 2024 [8]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Context - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Trump's actions and rhetoric regarding Iran, have kept markets on edge, influencing investor sentiment [5][8]. - Demand for traditional safe havens such as gold has increased due to uncertainty, while certain equity segments, including energy stocks, have seen heightened volatility [6][8]. Group 4: Federal Reserve and Policy Concerns - Questions surrounding Federal Reserve independence are prominent, especially with reports of a criminal investigation involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell [7][9]. - Trump's proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% and his actions regarding Wall Street firms have added to the uncertainty in the financial sector [8].

Core Viewpoint - Netflix is expected to report a strong quarter on January 20, primarily due to the final season of "Stranger Things," which has successfully re-engaged lapsed subscribers and maintained high engagement levels during the holiday season [1] Group 1 - The final season of "Stranger Things" is a significant driver for Netflix's upcoming performance [1] - The holiday period has seen increased engagement among subscribers, attributed to the show's popularity [1] - The company is likely to see a positive impact on subscriber numbers as a result of this season's release [1]

Market Reactions - US stock futures fell, with S&P 500 futures down about 0.7% and Nasdaq futures down 1.0% amid thin trading due to a holiday [2][5] - The dollar weakened against safe-haven currencies, slipping against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc [2][5] - Gold and silver reached record highs as investors sought safety, while oil prices eased due to concerns over a potential trade dispute impacting global growth [2][5] European Market Sentiment - Major European indices, including EUROSTOXX 50 and Germany's DAX futures, were down 1.1% [2][5] - The European Union condemned the tariff threat from the US, viewing it as economic coercion related to Greenland [3][5] - The EU is considering retaliatory tariffs on €93 billion ($108 billion) worth of US imports, which were previously approved but suspended [3][5] Investment Dynamics - European countries hold approximately $8 trillion in US bonds and equities, nearly double that of the rest of the world combined, which could lead to repatriation of investments [3][5] - Analysts warn that leveraging capital flows could be more disruptive to markets than tariffs alone, given the current negative net international investment position of the US [3][5] Economic Data and Corporate Earnings - Investors are awaiting Chinese economic data, with growth expected to slow to 4.4% in the December quarter from 4.8% previously [3][5] - Delayed data on US core inflation and consumer spending for November is expected to influence Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations [3][5] - Corporate earnings reports are anticipated from major companies including Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, General Electric, and Intel [3][5] Currency and Commodity Markets - The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1613, while sterling increased to $1.3387; the dollar fell 0.2% against the Swiss franc and 0.3% against the yen [3][5] - Gold prices climbed 1.5% to $4,664 an ounce, while oil prices saw a slight decline, with Brent crude down 0.5% at $63.84 a barrel and US crude off 0.4% at $59.18 [3][5]

Group 1 - Major US stock indices remained nearly flat last week as the fourth quarter earnings season approaches, hovering near historical highs [1] - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, reached new closing highs in the last three trading days, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the major indices, influenced less by tech giants and the AI theme [1] - The S&P 500 index remained flat for the week, and the Nasdaq Composite index declined by approximately 0.4% [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical issues and domestic policy proposals, including credit card fee caps and housing assistance plans, are expected to be key discussion topics during Trump's upcoming appearance at the World Economic Forum [2] - The fourth quarter earnings releases are accelerating, with notable attention on Netflix and Intel's performance [2] - Netflix is attempting to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery while fending off a competing bid from Paramount Global, with plans to increase its offer to a cash acquisition [2] Group 3 - The Russell 2000 index is trading at historical highs, indicating a positive outlook for the US economy, as these companies typically derive more revenue from domestic customers compared to S&P 500 constituents [3] - The equal-weighted S&P 500 index reached a record high on January 13, while software stocks have seen significant declines, with companies like Intuit and Adobe dropping over 12% year-to-date [3] - The Russell 2000 index has risen approximately 20% over the past six months, compared to a 10% increase in the S&P 500 index [3] Group 4 - The current market rally is driven by the AI theme, with stocks across various sectors, including energy and defense, participating in the uptrend [4] - Companies like Bloom Energy and Kratos Defense have seen substantial stock price increases, driven by demand for AI data centers and rising gold prices benefiting mining companies [4] - Leading stocks in the S&P 500 this year include those associated with AI investments, such as Sandisk and Intel, which are primarily hardware-focused [4] Group 5 - The market's bullish sentiment is reinforced by strong rotations into new derivative areas under the same AI investment theme as it enters its fourth year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Netflix animated film "K-POP: The Witch Hunter" won the Best Animated Feature at the 83rd Golden Globe Awards, defeating Disney's "Zootopia 2," significantly increasing its chances for an Oscar nomination, while also sparking debates about its focus on popular culture over artistic depth [1][3]. Group 1: Awards and Recognition - "K-POP: The Witch Hunter" has previously won multiple awards during the awards season and its recent Golden Globe win enhances its Oscar prospects [1]. - The film is part of a growing trend where non-American animated films, particularly from East Asia, are gaining recognition in major awards, challenging traditional views held by institutions like the Academy [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The animation landscape is shifting, with increasing acceptance of non-traditional animated films at major awards, as seen with recent winners like Latvia's "The Cat's Magical Drift" and Guillermo del Toro's "Pinocchio" [6]. - The success of "K-POP: The Witch Hunter," which has garnered 5.41 billion hours of viewing on Netflix, indicates a significant shift towards fan-driven content in the animation industry, reflecting changing audience preferences [5]. Group 3: Cultural Impact - The film's integration of K-pop culture and superhero themes represents a merging of Eastern and Western storytelling styles, highlighting the evolving nature of animated content [5]. - The Academy's historical bias towards family-friendly animated films from studios like Disney and Pixar is being challenged by the popularity of films that cater to specific fan bases, suggesting a potential reevaluation of what constitutes "great" animation [4][5].