本周观点 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店，整体咖啡行业价格竞争趋缓；阿 拉比卡咖啡期货价格持续下跌，后续有望带来成本改善。2）茶饮：略有承压；短期平台 AI 流量大战，奶茶成为 引流品，数据依旧具备韧性；但有关"糖税"征收相关研究讨论引发市场担忧。 电商：持续承压。受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商基本面表现平淡。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放。 网易云音乐 2025 年收入略微不及预期，关注 2026 年音乐订阅业务有望量价齐升。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：地缘冲突风险加剧，币价持续承压。香港 2026-2027 年度财政预算案确认香港年内将 提交法案，建立虚拟资产交易商及托管服务提供者的发牌制度，监管范围将进一步扩展至场外交易等数字资产买 卖业务。 汽车服务：IAM中，多家主机系汽服连锁蛰伏后市场，车后连锁品牌持续加码开店 ...

2月10日，政协第五届江门市蓬江区委员会第六次会议召开，蓬江正式迈入两会时间。与会人员齐聚一 堂、共商发展，携手为蓬江高质量发展绘制美好蓝图。会议期间，政协委员围绕蓬江区政府工作报告， 结合自身深耕领域谈发展感受、献务实良策，从科创赋能产业、空间布局优化到跨区域协同发展等多个 维度，为蓬江高质量发展出谋划策、凝聚智慧与力量。 李镇强： 深化港江融合 激活发展新动能 "听完报告后我非常振奋！这一年蓬江的发展非常务实且有成效。"民建江门市蓬江总支主委，江门市蓬 江区自然资源局总工程师、三级主任科员章海燕聆听政府工作报告后，对蓬江过去一年优化国土空间布 局、保障产业发展用地的工作成效倍感认可。她谈到，过去一年，区委、区政府聚焦国土空间布局和产 业用地，坚持规划引领、全域土地整治，通过增量提升、存量盘活全面激活土地要素，紧扣 "制造业当 家"啃下"工改" 硬骨头，杜阮万洋科技城、荷塘万洋光电产业园改造老旧厂房等项目的落地，正是蓬江 土地要素保障工作成效的生动体现，而蓬江能成功跻身"千亿城区"，充足的空间要素保障更是打下了坚 实基础。 当前蓬江全力发展高端制造、咖啡茶饮等特色产业，如何在严守耕地红线的前提下提供更精准的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The end of the "9.9 yuan unlimited" promotion by Cotti Coffee marks a significant shift in the Chinese coffee market from aggressive price competition to a focus on refined operations and sustainable profitability [1][9]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - Cotti Coffee initiated a price war in 2023 with its aggressive "9.9 yuan" strategy, which led to rapid market expansion and increased brand recognition, resulting in over 18,000 stores by December 2025 [2][10]. - The price war attracted competitors like Luckin Coffee and Starbucks, who also adopted similar low-price strategies to maintain market share [2][10]. - The "attack hammer" strategy, while initially successful, has turned into a "bleeding wound" as the cost structure became unsustainable, with Cotti's average cost per cup at 11.1 yuan, leading to a loss of 1.2 yuan per cup sold at the 9.9 yuan price point [3][11]. Group 2: Transition to Sustainable Practices - The coffee industry is transitioning from a phase of "barbaric growth" to one of refined operations, with a focus on quality and product differentiation rather than just low prices [4][12]. - By 2025, the Chinese coffee market is projected to reach 218.1 billion yuan, with a shift in consumer behavior towards coffee as a daily necessity rather than a luxury [4][12]. - Cotti Coffee has reported achieving positive cash flow and profitability since May 2024, indicating a strategic pivot away from unsustainable pricing models [7][14]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Strategy - Consumer reactions to price changes are varied, with some loyal to the low-price model feeling disappointed by price increases, while others support a return to normal market pricing [4][12]. - The end of the price war is expected to lead to a split in consumer preferences, with some seeking alternatives and others becoming loyal customers of brands that innovate [5][13]. - Brands are now focusing on product innovation and supply chain efficiency as new competitive focal points, moving away from price-based competition [5][13].

风险提示 本周观点 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店；库迪结束 9.9 元活动，整体咖啡 行业价格竞争趋缓，但需关注开店带来的阶段性稀释效应。2）茶饮：略有承压；短期平台 AI 流量大战，奶茶成 为引流品，补贴以相对趋缓的节奏退坡，数据依旧具备韧性。 电商：持续承压。2025 年实物商品网上零售额 130923 亿元，增长 5.2%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 26.1%， 受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商表现平淡；但关注 AI 带来的电商广告推荐提效。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放， 我们建议持续关注音乐订阅平台，估值具备性价比。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：加密市场催化有限，资本流入疲软，币价承压。本周中国人民银行、中国证监会等八 部门联合发布《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》；中国证监会公布〔2026〕1 号文件：《 ...

以后喝库迪不能闭眼冲9.9元了。 2026年2月开始，库迪咖啡官宣，仅在特价专区保留3~7款产品延续该低价，其余所有非特价产品恢复到11.9~16.9元常规售价，部分核心单品涨幅达 30%~60%。 2025年，瑞幸、奈雪的茶、卡旺卡等咖啡茶饮品牌都先后进行价格调整。而库迪此次涨价，不仅让消费者感叹"咖啡自由"缩水，也意味着咖啡茶饮行业持 续多年的价格战迎来尾声。 不卷价格，新茶饮行业的下一个竞争焦点又将是什么？ 告别"全场9.9元" 2月4日，《IT时报》记者打开库迪咖啡小程序时发现，曾经"全场9.9元不限量"的醒目标语已替换为"特价专区9.9元"。专区里仅有6款美式和拿铁咖啡，多 数新品和生椰拿铁等经典款，价格已上涨至11.9~16.9元区间。 作为9.9元咖啡"价格战"的发起者，2023年2月，库迪以"全场9.9元"横空出世，随后将咖啡饮品价格降至8.8元，以极致低价成功跻身全球连锁咖啡品牌前 三，也让"老前辈"瑞幸感到压力，不得不推出9.9元优惠券应战。 但这种"赔本赚吆喝"的模式暗藏隐忧。中国社会科学院财经战略研究院研究员、服务经济与互联网发展研究室副主任黄浩在公开文章中指出，激战之下， 需求暴增也 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the industry, expecting a fluctuation range of -5% to 5% relative to the market over the next 3-6 months [50]. Core Insights - The coffee and tea industry remains in a high-growth phase, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations. Price competition is expected to ease following the end of promotional pricing by Kudi [3][11]. - The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with a projected online retail sales growth of 5.2% by 2025, reaching 13,092.3 billion yuan, accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales. The overall performance is subdued due to domestic consumption conditions, although AI is expected to enhance advertising efficiency [3][12]. - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable internet assets driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on subscription platforms due to their profitability potential [3]. - The virtual assets and trading platforms are facing macroeconomic uncertainties and limited policy catalysts, with cryptocurrency prices experiencing volatility [3][25]. - The automotive service sector is seeing new developments, such as JD's entry into the modification market with its first modification center in Wuhan [3][39]. - The AI and cloud sectors are witnessing advancements in foundational model capabilities, with a focus on AI applications. Major tech companies continue to invest heavily in AI infrastructure, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][44]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index showed a cumulative decline of 0.53%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 2.92 percentage points. Notable stock performances include Yum China (+1.57%) and Luckin Coffee (-0.15%) [8][10]. 1.1.1 Coffee and Tea - The coffee sector is experiencing sustained high demand, with brands continuing to expand despite seasonal challenges. Kudi's promotional pricing has ended, and coffee bean prices are rising, leading to a potential slowdown in price competition [3][11]. 1.1.2 E-commerce & Internet - The Hang Seng internet technology index fell by 1.16%, with a notable performance gap compared to the Hang Seng technology index. Luckin Coffee opened 200 new stores, with a significant portion in first and second-tier cities [12][13]. 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index decreased by 0.98%, with Tencent Music (+3.07%) and iQIYI (+1.96%) showing positive movements [19][20]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped to 29,604 billion USD, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices falling by 5.9% and 8.4%, respectively [25][27]. 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The automotive service sector is active, with JD's new modification center opening and a notable increase in vehicle transfer registrations, indicating a vibrant used car market [33][39]. 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index saw a decline of 1.16%, with notable stock performances from Beike-W (+5.48%) and Didi Global (-5.04%) [38][42]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index fell by 1.45%, with significant stock movements from Meta (+8.77%) and Google A (+3.07%) [44][46].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "Neutral" investment rating for the industry, expecting a fluctuation range of -5% to 5% compared to the broader market over the next 3-6 months [50]. Core Insights - The coffee and tea beverage sector remains vibrant, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations. Price competition is expected to ease following the end of promotional pricing by Kudi and rising coffee bean prices [3][11]. - The e-commerce sector continues to face pressure, with projected online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13,092.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.2% and accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [3]. - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on subscription platforms due to their profitability potential [3]. - The virtual asset and trading platform sector is experiencing volatility amid macroeconomic uncertainties, with recent developments in U.S. regulatory frameworks impacting market dynamics [3]. - The automotive service sector is expanding, with JD.com opening its first car modification center, indicating growth in the aftermarket segment [3]. - The AI and cloud sector is witnessing advancements in foundational model capabilities, leading to increased application deployment. The report suggests focusing on tech leaders with strong cash flow, such as Google and Microsoft in the U.S., and Tencent and Alibaba in China [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index showed a cumulative decline of 0.53%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 2.92 percentage points [8]. - Notable stock performances include Yum China (+1.57%) and Luckin Coffee (-0.15%), with several other brands experiencing declines [8][10]. 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index fell by 0.98%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 3.36 percentage points [19]. - Key stock movements included Tencent Music (+3.07%) and Spotify (-2.51%) [19][20]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - As of January 30, the global cryptocurrency market cap was $296.04 billion, down 4.72%. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell by 5.9% and 8.4%, respectively [25][27]. 1.2.3 Automotive Aftermarket - The Hang Seng composite index rose by 1.78%, with Advance Auto Parts (+2.65%) leading the gains [33]. 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index declined by 1.16%, with notable stock performances including Beike-W (+5.48%) and Didi Global (-5.04%) [38]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index decreased by 1.45%, with Meta (+8.77%) and Google A (+3.07%) showing positive movements [44].

Core Insights - The article highlights a trend of price increases in the fast-food and beverage sectors, with major brands like KFC and McDonald's adjusting their prices in response to rising operational costs [1][2][3] - The adjustments are seen as a necessary response to the competitive landscape shaped by online delivery platforms, which have previously driven prices down [3] Group 1: Price Adjustments - KFC China announced a small price increase of an average of 0.8 yuan for its delivery products, while maintaining in-store prices [2] - McDonald's has also raised prices on some menu items by 0.5 to 1 yuan since December 15, while keeping certain popular meal deals unchanged [2] - Other brands like Luckin Coffee and Nayuki are expected to follow suit with price increases ranging from 1 to 2 yuan, or by eliminating discounts and promotions [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The competitive environment has shifted from a price war aimed at eliminating competitors to a chaotic "mixed battle," which may ultimately harm overall industry profitability [3] - Rising demand in the face of intense competition could lead to increased raw material costs, further squeezing profit margins for smaller brands [3] - The price hikes are viewed as part of a self-correcting process within the industry, transitioning from aggressive growth strategies to a focus on cost and revenue management [3]

Group 1 - DQ has recently entered the cake afternoon tea market in China, raising questions about its potential entry into the coffee sector, which is highly competitive and has seen significant price drops [1][10] - CFB Group, which manages DQ, is focused on localizing international brands in the Chinese market, as evidenced by its recent strategies and partnerships [2] - DQ plans to launch at least 150 new products in 2025, with new products contributing 60% of its annual revenue, showcasing its commitment to innovation and adaptation in the market [5][6] Group 2 - DQ targets the "Z generation" as its core consumer group, with the proportion of young consumers increasing from 40% in 2021 to over 70% currently, indicating a successful brand rejuvenation strategy [6] - The company has successfully utilized pet culture as a marketing strategy, offering promotions for customers who bring their pets to stores, which has proven to be more effective than IP collaborations [7][8] - DQ maintains a cautious approach towards the competitive landscape of food delivery services, opting not to engage in discount wars, which has helped preserve profit margins for its franchisees and direct stores [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The coffee industry remains highly prosperous with brands actively opening new stores, although there is a caution regarding short-term data volatility due to the seasonal downturn [3] - The tea beverage sector is under slight pressure as it enters the off-season, with a trend of subsidy reductions expected despite the government's investigation into delivery platforms [3] - The e-commerce sector continues to face challenges, showing lackluster performance due to the domestic consumption environment [3] - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable internet assets driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on music subscription platforms [3] - The virtual asset and trading platform market is experiencing limited catalysts, with cryptocurrency prices remaining volatile [3] - The automotive service sector is seeing expansion, with new 4S stores being opened by Zhongsheng Group in various cities [3] - The internet healthcare sector is gaining attention with OpenAI's launch of "ChatGPT Health," suggesting a focus on this area [3] - The AI and cloud sectors are viewed positively, with recommendations to monitor leading tech companies with strong cash flows [3] - The media sector is showing signs of recovery, with new games performing well and user growth in the gaming segment [3] Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index decreased by 0.98%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 0.57 percentage points [8] - Notable stock performances include: Gu Ming (+8.72%), Ba Wang Tea (+6.99%), and Luckin Coffee (-6.47%) [8][10] 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index increased by 3.22%, outperforming both the Hang Seng index and the technology index [15] - Key stock performances include: iQIYI (+0.99%) and Tencent Music (-2.86%) [15] 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - As of January 9, the global cryptocurrency market cap reached $319.54 billion, up 3.40% [22] - Bitcoin and Ethereum prices were $90,505 and $3,083.14, reflecting changes of +0.6% and -1.2% respectively [22] 1.2.3 Automotive Services - The Hang Seng composite index rose by 0.38%, with notable stock performances including Advance Auto Parts (+12.73%) [31] 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index decreased by 0.27%, with key stock performances such as JD Health (+13.31%) and Didi Global (-7.19%) [37] 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index increased by 1.59%, with Amazon (+9.22%) and Google (+4.26%) showing strong performances [39] 1.3 Media - The Shenwan一级传媒 index increased by 13.14%, with the advertising and marketing sector showing the largest gains [46] - Key stock performances include: Xindong Company (+18.50%) and Tencent Holdings (-1.93%) [46]