风险提示："中证国有企业红利指数(000824)由中证指数有限公司（"中证"）编制和计算，其所有权归属 中证及/或其指定的第三方。中证对于标的指数的实时性、准确性、完整性和特殊目的的适用性不作任 何明示或暗示的担保，不因标的指数的任何延迟、缺失或错误对任何人承担责任（无论是否存在过 失）。中证对于跟踪标的指数的产品不作任何担保、背书、销售或推广，中证不承担与此相关的任何责 任。"本基金为被动投资的交易型开放式指数基金，主要采用完全复制策略，跟踪标的指数市场表现， 具有与标的指数所表征的市场相似的风险收益特征。投资者投资于本基金面临标的指数回报与相应市场 平均回报偏离、标的指数波动、跟踪误差控制未达约定目标、标的指数变更、指数编制机构停止服务、 成份股停牌或退市等潜在风险。本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投 资、兑付责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定 盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构 成对本基金业绩表现的预示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招募说明书和基金产品 资料 ...

会议助理: 本会议信息仅供参考，不代表任何投资建议。 王风涤 中泰证券机械分析师: 到 30 年，目前这个需求，会超过 200 GW。其实概括为一句话，就是北美缺电的这么一 个情况。它其实就是 AI 的电力需求突增，对应了以及对应着这个北美本地这个电网基建 老化之间的一种矛盾。这也就导致了为什么这个，目前这个功能技术的路径出现了微调。 什么叫微调？就是阶段内这个燃气轮机仍然是主力，但是基于产能、交期以及区域的工序 不平衡等等因素吧，这个行业它处在一个多技术路线动态微调的阶段这个多技术并行，其 实我个人认为有一点像 20 年前后的光伏的 P 型和 N 型的那个时间点，就是它还没有到抉 择的时刻，因为北美目前的这个缺电缺口，我们刚才介绍过。 它其实是大于目前任何单一技术的产能的。即使从这个发电效率、碳排放、什么成本、度 电成本等等等方面。这个，尤其是重燃，它的这个综合表现是最优的。但是，它这个实际 的装机的交付周期，尤其是这个大型的交付周期。已经从 24 年那一段时间的 2.5 年到 3 年拉长到了现在最长的 7 年。这个也是向大家排期到 2029 年的原因。这个供应链受限， 使得大量的增量需求外溢到了目前的其他 ...

Core Insights - The report from Dongwu Securities highlights the contradiction between the non-linear growth of AI electricity demand and the aging infrastructure of the power grid in North America [2] Demand Side - The surge in AIDC projects in the U.S. has led to a non-linear increase in electricity demand [2] - By 2025, total supply is expected to meet short-term demand, but long-term projections indicate a decline in stable supply and regional electricity shortages [2] Supply Side - The decline in stable supply is attributed to aging power grids, frequent outages, and the upcoming retirement peak of coal power plants [2] - Renewable energy sources like wind and solar are unstable, while nuclear and geothermal projects have long construction cycles, necessitating reliance on natural gas for current gaps [2] - Regional electricity shortages are exacerbated by over 50% of data centers being built in Texas, California, and Virginia, leading to significant supply pressure in these areas [2] - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) projects an average peak gap of over 20 GW from 2027 to 2030, with Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California facing high risks [2] - The Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts an average peak gap of 20-40 GW by 2030 [2] Investment Opportunities - Considering cost, construction time, and environmental factors, gas turbines are identified as the optimal solution for AIDC self-built power [2] - Gas turbines can achieve over 60% efficiency, with the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour, and are seeing accelerated installation trends [2] - The global new installation scale of gas turbines is expected to approach the previous cycle's peak by 2025, with leading manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries having orders scheduled until 2029 [2] - Gas internal combustion engines, while slightly less efficient, offer rapid delivery and deployment, with Wärtsilä's new equipment orders increasing by 111% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025 [2] - Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) have high efficiency but are still in early stages of commercialization and cost control, making them less viable in the short term [2] - Diesel generators provide quick start-stop advantages and are optimal for backup power, with Cummins reporting a revenue growth of about 20% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the North American electricity sector, particularly focusing on gas turbines and related technologies due to the ongoing electricity shortage driven by AI data center demands [2][6][30]. Core Insights - The North American electricity shortage is characterized by a contradiction between the non-linear growth of AI electricity demand and the aging infrastructure of the power grid. The demand side sees a surge in AIDC projects, while the supply side faces challenges with declining stable supply and regional electricity shortages [2][6][24]. - The report highlights that gas turbines are currently the optimal solution for AIDC self-built power generation, with gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation serving as effective supplements [2][37]. - The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) predicts an average peak electricity gap of over 20GW from 2027 to 2030, with significant risks in Texas, the Mid-Atlantic, the Midwest, and California [2][32]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Electricity Shortage in North America - The electricity shortage is driven by the non-linear growth of AI demand and the aging power grid infrastructure. The electricity consumption in the U.S. is expected to reach historical highs in 2025-2026, with data centers' planned installed capacity increasing from 5GW in early 2023 to over 245GW by October 2025 [6][19]. - The average lifespan of power infrastructure in the U.S. is around 35-40 years, leading to frequent outages and an inability to meet the reliability demands of AIDC [15][19]. Section 2: Power Source Selection - Gas turbines are identified as the primary power source, with gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation as supplementary options. The report emphasizes the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of gas turbines, which can achieve over 60% efficiency and have the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour [2][37]. - The report also discusses the expected increase in gas turbine installations, with global new installations projected to approach previous cycle peaks by 2025, driven by the surge in AIDC electricity demand [48][52]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various technologies due to the ongoing electricity shortage, suggesting investments in gas turbines, gas internal combustion engines, SOFC, and diesel generation. Specific companies are highlighted for potential investment opportunities, including Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Co., Dongfang Electric, and others [2][37][39].

Core Viewpoint - The space photovoltaic and commercial aerospace concept stocks experienced significant gains, with multiple ETFs reaching their daily limit up on January 23, indicating strong market interest in these sectors [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - On January 23, the A-share market saw a rise, particularly in space photovoltaic and commercial aerospace stocks, with several ETFs, including the New Energy ETF (588960), achieving a daily increase of 10.42% [3][4]. - Multiple ETFs, such as the Satellite ETF (159206), Photovoltaic ETF (562970), and Satellite Industry ETF (159218), all reached a rare 10% limit up on the same day [3][4]. - The trading volume for the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF (510300) and the E Fund CSI 300 ETF (510310) exceeded 30 billion yuan each, reflecting active trading in broad-based ETFs [7][8]. Group 2: Market Trends - The commercial aerospace market in China has been rapidly growing since 2015, with projections indicating a market size of 7 trillion to 10 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by policy support and technological advancements [4]. - The energy sector saw some declines, with the Energy ETF (159930) leading the losses at -1.63% on the same day [5][6]. Group 3: Fund Flows - On January 22, the overall market saw a net outflow of approximately 67.7 billion yuan from ETFs, with a total net outflow of 259 billion yuan over the first four trading days of the week [2][9]. - Specific ETFs, such as the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, experienced significant net outflows exceeding 16 billion yuan and 15 billion yuan, respectively [9][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Fund managers express optimism about structural opportunities in the space photovoltaic and commercial aerospace sectors, anticipating a new cycle in the energy industry driven by energy transition and AI power demand [11]. - The aerospace sector is expected to perform well, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2025, with ongoing developments in commercial aerospace likely to benefit index component stocks [11].

近期国家电网又有重磅消息披露：1月15日，国家电网宣布将在"十五五"期间投入4万亿元进行固定资产投资，这一数字较"十四五"期间增长40%。加上南方 电网的投资，全国年均电网投资或将突破1万亿元大关。 这笔史无前例的"4万亿大单"不仅像一颗投入资本市场的深水炸弹，激起了整个电力产业链的涟漪。更是把整条电网产业链按在聚光灯下：资本有了确定 性，订单有了确定性，估值模型直接切换至"能源基建2.0"赛道，电力系统重塑的阿尔法空间被一次性摊开在桌面上。 电力缺口的持续扩大或成为行业未来爆发点 从国内来看，全社会用电量正从"温和爬坡"切换为"陡峭拉升"。国家能源局最新月报显示，2025年1—11月全国累计用电8.94万亿千瓦时，同比+7.2%，增速 创2012年以来同期峰值；即便在高基数效应下，电网调度口径仍把2026—2028年复合增速锚定在6.3%—6.8%，远高于2016—2020年4.2%的平均值。 国内用电总量增速明显 数据来源：同花顺iFinD 数据区间：2005-2025 这其中AI对于电力的巨大需求成为主因，2025年底全国标准机架规模突破1200万架，对应用电量2600亿千瓦时；AI大模型训练负荷的利用 ...

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Mining's stock price increased by 4.40%, currently trading at HKD 3.80, with a transaction volume of HKD 112 million [5]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2025, CGN's 49%-owned Xie Company produced 862.2 tons of natural uranium, while another 49%-owned Ao Company produced 1,836.8 tons, achieving completion rates of 100.1% and 102.0% respectively [5]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, CGN's invested mines produced a total of 702.5 tons of natural uranium, with a quarterly completion rate of 94.6%. Xie Company produced 249.2 tons, and Ao Company produced 453.3 tons [5]. Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Guojin Securities, the primary supply of uranium is expected to recover in the short term due to the resumption of mining operations, but the long-term supply capacity is facing continuous decline. Secondary supply is unlikely to generate effective increments in the short term [5]. - On the demand side, nuclear power installations are steadily increasing due to energy security, the transition to clean energy, and AI-driven electricity demand, leading to a persistent global supply-demand gap for natural uranium. Expectations of tight supply are driving up long-term contract prices for uranium [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant increase in the stock price of China General Nuclear Power Corporation Mining (CGN Mining), which rose by 4.12% to HKD 3.79, with a trading volume of HKD 87.39 million [1] - CGN Mining announced that its 49% owned Xie Company produced 862.2 tons of natural uranium in 2025, while its other 49% owned Ao Company produced 1,836.8 tons, achieving completion rates of 100.1% and 102.0% respectively [1] - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the total production of natural uranium from the group's invested mines was 702.5 tons, with a completion rate of 94.6% for the quarter [1] Group 2 - According to Guojin Securities, the supply side of uranium is expected to recover in the short term due to the resumption of mining operations, but the long-term supply capacity is facing continuous decline [1] - On the demand side, the growth of nuclear power installations is driven by energy security, the transition to clean energy, and the demand for AI-powered electricity, leading to a persistent global supply-demand gap for natural uranium [1] - The expectation of tight supply is likely to push up the long-term contract prices of uranium [1]

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Mining has seen its stock price increase by over 4%, currently trading at HKD 3.79 with a transaction volume of HKD 87.39 million. The company announced its uranium production figures for 2025, indicating strong performance in both its joint ventures [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2025, CGN's 49%-owned Xie Company produced 862.2 tons of natural uranium, achieving a completion rate of 100.1% of its annual plan, while the 49%-owned Ao Company produced 1,836.8 tons, with a completion rate of 102.0% [1]. - For the fourth quarter of 2025, CGN's invested mines produced a total of 702.5 tons of natural uranium, with a completion rate of 94.6% for the quarter. Xie Company contributed 249.2 tons, and Ao Company contributed 453.3 tons [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Guojin Securities, the supply side of uranium is expected to see a short-term recovery due to the resumption of mining operations, but the long-term supply capacity is facing continuous decline. Additionally, secondary supply is unlikely to generate effective increments in the short term [1]. - On the demand side, the growth of nuclear power installations is being driven by energy security, the transition to clean energy, and the demand for AI-related electricity, leading to a steady increase in demand for natural uranium. The global supply-demand gap for natural uranium is expected to persist [1]. - With expectations of tight supply, the long-term contract prices for uranium are anticipated to continue rising [1].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of $2.7 billion in funding by the U.S. government to Centrus Energy and two other nuclear fuel manufacturers aims to restart domestic nuclear fuel production and reduce reliance on Russian enriched uranium [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Mining (01164) saw its stock price rise over 4% in early trading, currently up 2.79% at HKD 3.68, with a trading volume of HKD 170 million [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Uranium futures prices have recently surpassed $82 per pound, reaching the highest level since mid-2024 [1] - According to Guojin Securities, the primary supply of uranium is expected to recover in the short term due to the resumption of mining operations, but long-term supply capabilities are facing continuous decline [1] - The demand for nuclear power is steadily increasing due to energy security, the transition to clean energy, and the demand for AI-driven electricity, leading to a persistent global supply-demand gap for natural uranium [1] - Expectations of tight supply are driving up long-term uranium contract prices [1]