智通财经APP获悉，烟草巨头菲利普莫里斯(PM.US)公布的2025年第二季度财报显示，该公司Q2营收同 比增长7.1%至101.40亿美元，不及分析师普遍预期的103.2亿美元。调整后的经营利润为42.46亿美元， 同比增长16.1%;调整后的经营利润率为41.9%，上年同期为38.6%。调整后的每股收益为1.91美元，好于 分析师普遍预期的1.86美元，上年同期为1.59美元。 得益于人们对吸烟和烟草带来的健康担忧，菲利普莫里斯的无烟业务蓬勃发展。包含IQOS系列在内的 无烟产品业务Q2营收同比增长15.2%至42亿美元，占该公司总营收的41%。 据悉，在菲利普莫里斯的烟草产品分类中，目前营收占比最高、增长最快的"无烟产品"核心支柱乃加热 不燃烧(HTP)体系 —— 即IQOS 系列。官方文件强调 IQOS 属于 "heated-tobacco products"，以感应技术 将烟丝加热到约 300-350 ℃，产生含尼古丁的气溶胶而不产生燃烧烟雾。IQOS系列目前是市场上最知 名的加热烟草产品之一。IQOS使用专门设计的烟弹，通过加热烟草而不是燃烧烟草来产生烟雾，旨在 减少产生的对人体和环境有害化学物质 ...

Financial Performance - Philip Morris lifts its full-year profit guidance [1] Product Performance - US sales of Zyn nicotine pouches continued to accelerate [1] - US sales of IQOS heated tobacco sticks continued to accelerate [1]

预计全年调整后每股收益7.43美元至7.56美元，此前预计7.36美元至7.49美元，市场预估7.48美元。 Philip Morris第二季度调整后每股收益1.91美元，市场预估1.86美元。 第二季度调整后运营收益42.5亿美元，市场预估41.1亿美元。 ...

智通财经7月22日电，烟草巨头Philip Morris第二季度调整后运营收益42.5亿美元，预估41.1亿美元；预 计全年调整后每股收益7.43美元至7.56美元。 ...

[Glossary of Key Terms, Definitions and Explanatory Notes](index=2&type=section&id=Glossary%20of%20Key%20Terms%2C%20Definitions%20and%20Explanatory%20Notes) This section provides a comprehensive glossary of general, financial, and smoke-free product terminology used throughout the report [General Definitions](index=3&type=section&id=General) This section defines general corporate and operational terminology, including company references, comparison periods, and key volume metrics for cigarettes and heated tobacco units - PMI's total industry volume, shipment volume, and market share data generally include both cigarettes and heated tobacco units (HTUs)[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Regional acronyms are defined as "SSEA, CIS & MEA" for South & Southeast Asia, Commonwealth of Independent States, and Middle East & Africa, and "EA, AU & PMI GTR" for East Asia, Australia and PMI Global Travel Retail[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Effective Q1 2025, the "PMI Duty Free" business was renamed "PMI Global Travel Retail" (PMI GTR), and Wellness & Healthcare segment results are now included in the Europe segment following the Vectura Group sale[4](index=4&type=chunk) [Financial Definitions](index=4&type=section&id=Financial) This section defines key financial terms and non-GAAP measures like Adjusted Operating Income and Adjusted EBITDA, emphasizing organic, currency-neutral growth rates - Management reviews performance using adjusted, non-GAAP measures like adjusted net revenues, adjusted operating income, and adjusted EPS, excluding currency effects, acquisitions/divestitures, and restructuring costs[6](index=6&type=chunk) - **Adjusted EBITDA** is defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and equity income/loss, excluding restructuring costs, impairment of intangibles, and unusual items[6](index=6&type=chunk) - Due to high inflation, PMI uses the U.S. dollar as the functional currency for its affiliates in Argentina (since July 2018), Turkey (since April 2022), and Egypt (since October 2024)[9](index=9&type=chunk) - In December 2024, PMI completed the sale of Vectura Group, resulting in a pre-tax loss of **$199 million** in 2024[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Smoke-Free Product Definitions](index=5&type=section&id=Smoke-Free) This section defines terminology for PMI's smoke-free business, including 'Smoke-free products' (SFPs), 'Heated Tobacco Units' (HTUs), and user metrics like 'Total IQOS users' - **Smoke-free products (SFPs)** are defined as products providing nicotine without combusting tobacco, including heat-not-burn, e-Vapor, and oral smokeless products[9](index=9&type=chunk) - **Heated tobacco units (HTUs)** refer to heated tobacco consumables, including brands like HEETS and TEREA, as well as licensed KT&G brands[9](index=9&type=chunk) - **Total IQOS users** are estimated as legal-age users for whom PMI HTUs constitute at least a portion of their daily tobacco consumption in the past seven days[11](index=11&type=chunk) - Conversion rates for shipment volume calculations specify **15 nicotine pouches per can** in the U.S. and **one milliliter of e-vapor liquid equivalent to 10 units**[12](index=12&type=chunk) [Select Financial Information and Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial Measures](index=8&type=section&id=Select%20Financial%20Information%20and%20Reconciliations%20of%20Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures) This section provides key financial schedules and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures, detailing performance metrics like EPS, net revenues, gross profit, operating income, and leverage ratios [Schedule 1: Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS)](index=9&type=section&id=Schedule%201%3A%20Diluted%20Earnings%20Per%20Share%20%28EPS%29) This schedule presents Diluted EPS for Q2 and H1 2025, showing significant growth and attributing changes to operational performance, tax impacts, and fair value adjustments Diluted EPS Performance | Period | 2025 Diluted EPS | 2024 Diluted EPS | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Quarter Ended June 30** | $1.95 | $1.54 | 26.6% | | **Six Months Ended June 30** | $3.67 | $2.92 | 25.7% | - For Q2, the **$0.41 increase** in Diluted EPS from 2024 was primarily driven by operations (+$0.31), fair value adjustments (+$0.17), and favorable tax impacts (+$0.18), partially offset by restructuring charges (-$0.13) and amortization (-$0.12)[16](index=16&type=chunk) [Schedule 2: Reconciliation of Reported and Adjusted Diluted EPS](index=10&type=section&id=Schedule%202%3A%20Reconciliation%20of%20Reported%20and%20Adjusted%20Diluted%20EPS) This schedule reconciles reported GAAP EPS to adjusted non-GAAP EPS, highlighting strong currency-neutral growth of 18.9% for Q2 2025 and 17.7% for the first six months Q2 2025 EPS Reconciliation | Metric | Value (per share) | YoY % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Reported Diluted EPS** | $1.95 | 26.6% | | **Adjusted Diluted EPS** | $1.91 | 20.1% | | **Adjusted Diluted EPS, excluding Currency** | $1.89 | 18.9% | Six Months 2025 EPS Reconciliation | Metric | Value (per share) | YoY % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Reported Diluted EPS** | $3.67 | 25.7% | | **Adjusted Diluted EPS** | $3.60 | 16.1% | | **Adjusted Diluted EPS, excluding Currency** | $3.65 | 17.7% | [Schedule 3: Net Revenues Reconciliation (Q2)](index=11&type=section&id=Schedule%203%3A%20Net%20Revenues%20Reconciliation%20%28Q2%29) This schedule details Q2 2025 net revenues, showing total growth of 7.1% to $10.14 billion, with organic growth of 6.8% driven by Smoke-Free products Q2 2025 Net Revenue Growth vs. Q2 2024 | Category | Reported Growth | Organic Growth (Excl. Currency & Acq.) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Combustible Tobacco** | 2.1% | 2.0% | | **Total Smoke-Free** | 15.2% | 14.5% | | **Total PMI** | 7.1% | 6.8% | - Smoke-Free products now constitute approximately **41% of total net revenues**, reaching **$4.16 billion** in Q2 2025, up from **$3.61 billion** in Q2 2024[21](index=21&type=chunk) [Schedule 4: Net Revenues Reconciliation (Six Months)](index=12&type=section&id=Schedule%204%3A%20Net%20Revenues%20Reconciliation%20%28Six%20Months%29) This schedule presents H1 2025 net revenues, with total growth of 6.5% to $19.44 billion and robust organic growth of 8.4%, primarily from Smoke-Free products Six Months 2025 Net Revenue Growth vs. Six Months 2024 | Category | Reported Growth | Organic Growth (Excl. Currency & Acq.) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total Combustible Tobacco** | 1.1% | 2.9% | | **Total Smoke-Free** | 15.1% | 17.3% | | **Total PMI** | 6.5% | 8.4% | - The Americas region showed the highest organic revenue growth for the six-month period at **24.0%**, followed by Europe at **7.9%**[24](index=24&type=chunk) [Schedules 5 & 6: Gross Profit Reconciliation](index=13&type=section&id=Schedules%205%20%26%206%3A%20Gross%20Profit%20Reconciliation) These schedules reconcile gross profit, showing total adjusted organic growth of 11.2% for Q2 2025 and 13.5% for H1 2025, driven by Smoke-Free products Adjusted Gross Profit Organic Growth (Excl. Currency & Acq.) | Category | Q2 2025 YoY Growth | Six Months 2025 YoY Growth | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Combustible Tobacco** | 4.8% | 5.0% | | **Smoke-Free** | 21.5% | 27.0% | | **Total PMI** | 11.2% | 13.5% | [Schedules on Operating Income (Pages 15-18)](index=15&type=section&id=Schedules%20on%20Operating%20Income%20%28Pages%2015-18%29) This series of schedules reconciles operating income, showing Q2 2025 adjusted organic growth of 14.9% to $4.2 billion, driven by favorable pricing and volume/mix Q2 2025 Adjusted Operating Income Performance | Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | Reported % Change | Organic % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Reported Operating Income** | $3,712M | $3,444M | 7.8% | 6.2% | | **Adjusted Operating Income** | $4,246M | $3,656M | 16.1% | 14.9% | Six Months 2025 Adjusted Operating Income Performance | Metric | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | Reported % Change | Organic % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Reported Operating Income** | $7,256M | $6,489M | 11.8% | 12.1% | | **Adjusted Operating Income** | $8,036M | $7,016M | 14.5% | 15.4% | - Key adjustments to Q2 2025 operating income included **-$243 million** for restructuring charges, **-$41 million** for goodwill impairment, and **-$250 million** for amortization of intangibles[42](index=42&type=chunk) [Schedule 11: Adjusted Operating Income Margin Reconciliation](index=19&type=section&id=Schedule%2011%3A%20Adjusted%20Operating%20Income%20Margin%20Reconciliation) This schedule details the adjusted operating income margin, showing an organic expansion of 300 basis points for Q2 2025 and 250 basis points for H1 2025, reflecting improved profitability Adjusted OI Margin (Excl. Currency & Acq.) | Period | 2025 Margin | 2024 Margin | Basis Point Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Q2 Total PMI** | 41.6% | 38.6% | +300 bps | | **H1 Total PMI** | 40.9% | 38.4% | +250 bps | - In Q2 2025, the EA, AU & PMI GTR segment had the highest organic adjusted OI margin at **48.5%**, followed by Europe at **45.5%**[50](index=50&type=chunk) [Schedule 12: Condensed Statements of Earnings](index=20&type=section&id=Schedule%2012%3A%20Condensed%20Statements%20of%20Earnings) This schedule provides condensed income statements for Q2 and H1 2025, showing Q2 net revenues grew 7.1% to $10.14 billion and net earnings increased 26.3% to $3.04 billion Q2 2025 Condensed Statement of Earnings | Metric ($ in millions) | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net Revenues** | $10,140 | $9,468 | 7.1% | | **Gross Profit** | $6,861 | $6,123 | 12.1% | | **Operating Income** | $3,712 | $3,444 | 7.8% | | **Net Earnings attributable to PMI** | $3,039 | $2,406 | 26.3% | [Schedule 13: Condensed Balance Sheets](index=21&type=section&id=Schedule%2013%3A%20Condensed%20Balance%20Sheets) This schedule presents the condensed balance sheet as of June 30, 2025, showing total assets increased to $68.5 billion and total liabilities to $78.5 billion Key Balance Sheet Items ($ in millions) | Item | June 30, 2025 | Dec 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Cash and cash equivalents** | $4,138 | $4,216 | | **Total assets** | $68,506 | $61,784 | | **Total debt (Current + Long-term)** | $48,922 | $45,558 | | **Total liabilities** | $78,518 | $71,654 | | **Total PMI stockholders' deficit** | $(11,966) | $(11,750) | [Schedule 14: Debt to Adjusted EBITDA Ratio Calculation](index=22&type=section&id=Schedule%2014%3A%20Debt%20to%20Adjusted%20EBITDA%20Ratio%20Calculation) This schedule calculates leverage ratios, showing Adjusted EBITDA for the last twelve months at $16.6 billion and Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio at 2.85x Leverage Ratios | Metric | As of June 30, 2025 | As of Dec 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Adjusted EBITDA (LTM)** | $16,600M | $15,580M | | **Total Debt** | $51,462M | $45,695M | | **Net Debt** | $47,324M | $41,479M | | **Total Debt to Adjusted EBITDA** | 3.10x | 2.93x | | **Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA** | 2.85x | 2.66x | [Schedule 15: Operating Cash Flow Reconciliation](index=23&type=section&id=Schedule%2015%3A%20Operating%20Cash%20Flow%20Reconciliation) This schedule reconciles operating cash flow, showing net cash from operating activities for H1 2025 at $3.06 billion, a 37.2% decrease from the prior year Operating Cash Flow ($ in millions) | Period | 2025 | 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Q2 Net cash from operating activities** | $3,412 | $4,632 | (26.3)% | | **H1 Net cash from operating activities** | $3,062 | $4,873 | (37.2)%

Group 1 - Philip Morris International Inc. is set to release its second-quarter earnings results on July 22, with expected earnings of $1.86 per share, an increase from $1.59 per share in the same period last year [1] - The company is projected to report quarterly revenue of $10.33 billion, compared to $9.47 billion a year earlier [1] - On June 13, Philip Morris declared a regular quarterly dividend of $1.35 per share, and its shares gained 1% to close at $180.48 [2] Group 2 - Citigroup analyst Simon Hales maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $188 to $200 [4] - JP Morgan analyst Jared Dinges maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target from $175 to $190 [4] - Barclays analyst Gaurav Jain maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $220 to $225 [4] - B of A Securities analyst Lisa Lewandowski maintained a Buy rating and increased the price target from $182 to $200 [4] - Stifel analyst Matthew Smith maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $168 to $186 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris International Inc. is expected to report growth in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of 2025, with earnings anticipated to be released on July 22, before market opening [1]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is approximately $10.3 billion, reflecting an 8.3% increase from the same quarter last year [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has risen to $1.85 per share, indicating a 16.4% increase compared to the previous year [2]. Earnings Performance and Predictions - Philip Morris has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.6%, with the last quarter's earnings exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5% [3]. - The company has an Earnings ESP of -0.04% and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [4]. Factors Influencing Q2 Earnings - Strong pricing strategies have been a significant driver of revenue and operating income growth, as smokers tend to accept price increases due to the addictive nature of cigarettes [5]. - Smoke-free products contributed to 44% of the gross profit in Q1 2025, highlighting the success of the IQOS ILUMA device and other innovations like ZYN nicotine pouches and VEEV ONE e-vapor [6]. Smoke-Free Product Growth - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for total smoke-free product revenues for Q1 is $4,225.9 million, up from $3,530 million in the previous year [7]. - Management anticipates a 10% growth in IQOS HTU adjusted IMS for Q2, with ZYN shipments expected to maintain levels from Q1 [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts adjusted earnings between $1.80 and $1.85 for Q2, including a favorable currency impact of 6 cents per share [9][11]. Stock Performance - Philip Morris shares have increased by 9.7% over the past three months, underperforming the Zacks industry growth of 10.2% but lagging behind the S&P 500's 19.5% increase [12]. - Compared to major tobacco players, Philip Morris outperformed Altria but was outpaced by Turning Point Brands and British American Tobacco [13]. Valuation Analysis - Philip Morris is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 22.39X, above the industry average of 15.21X [15]. - Despite the premium valuation, the company's growth profile and strategic transformation make it an attractive option for investors [16].

Core Insights - Philip Morris International is expected to report earnings of $1.86 per share on revenues of $10.33 billion, surpassing last year's earnings of $1.59 per share on sales of $9.47 billion [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $285 billion and generated $38 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, with operating profits of $14 billion and a net income of $7.6 billion [4] Historical Performance - Over the past five years, Philip Morris stock has shown positive one-day returns following earnings reports in 60% of cases, with a median positive return of 3.2% and a maximum return of 10.9% [2][7] - In the last three years, the percentage of positive one-day returns drops slightly to 58% [7] - There have been 20 documented earnings data points in the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day returns [7] Return Correlation - The relationship between one-day (1D), five-day (5D), and twenty-one-day (21D) returns can guide trading strategies, with a focus on identifying correlations between short-term and medium-term returns [6][8] - A strategy based on the correlation between 1D and 5D returns can be employed, where a positive 1D return may lead to a long position for the next 5 days [8]

Core Viewpoint - Upgrading Philip Morris (PM) to a buy rating despite a nearly 50% year-to-date increase is seen as a strategic move, contrasting with a previous downgrade to hold in October [1]. Group 1 - The analyst, Manika, has over 20 years of experience in various industries, including investment management and investment banking [1]. - The investment group, Green Growth Giants, focuses on opportunities in the green economy, indicating a broader investment strategy beyond traditional sectors [1].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are presented with attractive income stock opportunities in 2025, particularly in light of high inflation and interest rates affecting financial results and share prices of leading consumer brands, resulting in increased dividend yields for several top companies [1]. Group 1: Target (TGT) - Target is considered a strong buy despite declining sales, attributed to its low price and high dividend yield, making it an opportune time for investment [4][9]. - The company has faced significant challenges, with its stock down 62% from its highs, and sales decreased by 2.8% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2025, with comparable sales down 3.8% [5]. - Target is making progress in cost management, with operating income up 19% year-over-year, and digital sales showing a 4.7% increase, alongside a 35% rise in same-day delivery sales [6]. - The management has initiated an enterprise acceleration office to enhance technology and data utilization, aiming to improve operational agility, similar to strategies employed prior to the pandemic [7]. - Target has a strong dividend history, being a Dividend King with 54 consecutive years of dividend increases, currently yielding 4.4% [8]. Group 2: Starbucks (SBUX) - Starbucks is noted for its attractive dividend yield of 2.6%, despite underperforming the market and maintaining a share price similar to 2019 [11]. - The company has experienced a decline in sales, but comparable-store sales are stabilizing, with only a 1% decrease year-over-year in the second quarter of fiscal 2024 [12]. - New CEO Brian Niccol is focusing on customer-centric strategies to revitalize the brand and enhance customer engagement in stores [13]. - Starbucks has a strong global presence, which supports consistent financial results and dividend payments, with dividends increasing from $1.44 in fiscal 2019 to a projected $2.44 in fiscal 2025 [14][15]. Group 3: Philip Morris International (PM) - Philip Morris International is positioned for long-term growth, particularly with its focus on next-generation smoke-free products, which now account for over 40% of its revenue [18][20]. - The company reported a 10.2% increase in organic revenue to $9.3 billion in the first quarter, with smoke-free product revenue growing by 20.4% [21]. - Adjusted earnings per share rose 17% to $1.76, and the company offers a dividend yield of 3%, with a strong history of dividend increases [22].