（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月21日，烟草公司菲利普莫里斯第三季度调整后每股收益2.24美元，预估2.11美元；第 三季度净营收108.5亿美元，预估106.6亿美元。 ...

[Glossary of Key Terms, Definitions and Explanatory Notes](index=2&type=section&id=Glossary%20of%20Key%20Terms%2C%20Definitions%20and%20Explanatory%20Notes) This section provides definitions for key operational, financial, and smoke-free product terms used throughout the report, along with explanatory notes [General Definitions and Operational Notes](index=3&type=section&id=General) This section defines core company references (PMI), comparison standards, and key operational metrics like total industry volume, combustible tobacco products, in-market sales (IMS), and total shipment volume - PMI's segment reporting was updated in January 2025, incorporating Wellness & Healthcare segment results into Europe and renaming 'PMI Duty Free' to 'PMI Global Travel Retail' (EA, AU & PMI GTR)[4](index=4&type=chunk) - Total shipment volume is defined as the combined total of cigarette, heated tobacco, oral smoke-free products (excluding snuff, snuff leaf, and U.S. chew), and e-vapor shipment volume in equivalent units[4](index=4&type=chunk) [Financial Definitions and Non-GAAP Measures](index=4&type=section&id=Financial) This section explains key financial terms and non-GAAP measures used by PMI, such as Cost of sales, Marketing, administration and research costs, Adjusted Operating Income Margin, Adjusted EBITDA, and Net debt - PMI utilizes **adjusted non-GAAP measures** (e.g., adjusted net revenues, operating income, EPS, operating cash flow) to provide insight into underlying business trends by excluding currency impacts, acquisitions, divestitures, restructuring costs, tax items, and amortization/impairment of acquired intangibles[6](index=6&type=chunk) - **Egypt was categorized as a highly inflationary economy** effective October 1, 2024, requiring the U.S. dollar to be treated as the functional currency for local affiliates[9](index=9&type=chunk) - PMI recorded a **pre-tax charge of $45 million** in Q3 2024 for Egypt sales tax assessments (2014-2016) and a **pre-tax loss of $199 million** in 2024 (primarily a $198 million impairment in Q3) due to the sale of Vectura Group Ltd. on December 31, 2024[9](index=9&type=chunk) [Smoke-Free Product Definitions](index=5&type=section&id=Smoke-Free) This section defines key terms related to PMI's smoke-free business (SFB) and products (SFPs), including heated tobacco units (HTU), IQOS devices, oral smokeless products, and e-vapor products - The **'Smoke-free business (SFB)'** encompasses all smoke-free products, wellness and healthcare products, and consumer accessories. **'Smoke-free products (SFPs)'** are products providing nicotine without combusting tobacco, such as heat-not-burn, e-Vapor, and oral smokeless, designed to generate lower levels of harmful chemicals[9](index=9&type=chunk) - **Total PMI SFPs users** are estimated based on the Nicotine Containing Products Tracker (NCPT) and SFP multicategory offtake volume trends, combining IQOS, oral smokeless, and e-Vapor users, and accounting for poly-users across categories[11](index=11&type=chunk) - **Conversion rates for oral smoke-free products** include 15-20 pouches per can for nicotine pouches and 21 pouches equivalent per can for snus products. **E-vapor products** are converted at one milliliter of e-vapor liquid equivalent to 10 units[12](index=12&type=chunk) [Select Financial Information and Reconciliations of Non-GAAP Financial Measures](index=8&type=section&id=Select%20Financial%20Information%20and%20Reconciliations%20of%20Non-GAAP%20Financial%20Measures) This section presents key financial schedules, including diluted EPS, net revenues, gross profit, operating income, balance sheets, debt ratios, and operating cash flow, with reconciliations to non-GAAP measures [Schedule 1: Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS)](index=9&type=section&id=Schedule%201%3A%20Diluted%20Earnings%20Per%20Share%20%28EPS%29) This schedule provides diluted EPS for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2025 and 2024, along with a detailed reconciliation of various adjustments impacting EPS | Period | 2025 Diluted EPS | 2024 Diluted EPS | Change | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Quarters Ended Sep 30 | $2.23 | $1.97 | $0.26 | 13.2% | | Nine Months Ended Sep 30 | $5.89 | $4.89 | $1.00 | 20.4% | | Period | 2025 Net Earnings (millions) | 2024 Net Earnings (millions) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Quarters Ended Sep 30 | $3,478 | $3,082 | | Nine Months Ended Sep 30 | $9,207 | $7,636 | [Schedule 2: Reconciliation of Diluted EPS to Adjusted Diluted EPS, excluding Currency](index=11&type=section&id=Schedule%202%3A%20Reconciliation%20of%20Diluted%20EPS%20to%20Adjusted%20Diluted%20EPS%2C%20excluding%20Currency) This schedule reconciles reported diluted EPS to adjusted diluted EPS, both excluding currency impacts, for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, highlighting the effect of various special items | Metric | 2025 | 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Reported Diluted EPS | $2.23 | $1.97 | 13.2% | | Reported Diluted EPS, excl. Currency | $2.15 | $1.97 | 9.1% | | Adjusted Diluted EPS | $2.24 | $1.91 | 17.3% | | Adjusted Diluted EPS, excl. Currency | $2.16 | $1.91 | 13.1% | | Metric | 2025 | 2024 | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Reported Diluted EPS | $5.89 | $4.89 | 20.4% | | Reported Diluted EPS, excl. Currency | $5.87 | $4.89 | 20.0% | | Adjusted Diluted EPS | $5.83 | $5.01 | 16.4% | | Adjusted Diluted EPS, excl. Currency | $5.81 | $5.01 | 16.0% | [Schedule 3: Net Revenues by Product Category (Quarters Ended September 30)](index=12&type=section&id=Schedule%203%3A%20Net%20Revenues%20by%20Product%20Category%20%28Quarters%20Ended%20September%2030%29) This schedule details net revenues by product category (Combustible Tobacco and Smoke-Free) and by region for the third quarter, showing reported figures and adjustments for currency, acquisitions, and divestitures | Metric | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | % Change | % Change excl. Currency | % Change excl. Currency & A/D | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total PMI Net Revenues | $10,845 | $9,911 | 9.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | | Total Combustible Tobacco | $6,400 | $6,134 | 4.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | | Total Smoke-Free | $4,445 | $3,777 | 17.7% | 12.9% | 13.9% | - Europe's **Smoke-Free net revenues grew by 19.5%** (14.1% excluding currency & A/D) to **$2,241 million** in Q3 2025, while Wellness & Healthcare within Europe declined by 24.3% (but grew 21.7% excluding currency & A/D)[24](index=24&type=chunk) [Schedule 4: Net Revenues by Product Category (Nine Months Ended September 30)](index=13&type=section&id=Schedule%204%3A%20Net%20Revenues%20by%20Product%20Category%20%28Nine%20Months%20Ended%20September%2030%29) This schedule presents net revenues by product category and region for the nine months ended September 30, with adjustments for currency, acquisitions, and divestitures | Metric | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | % Change | % Change excl. Currency | % Change excl. Currency & A/D | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total PMI Net Revenues | $30,286 | $28,172 | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | | Total Combustible Tobacco | $17,786 | $17,399 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | | Total Smoke-Free | $12,500 | $10,773 | 16.0% | 15.0% | 16.1% | - The Americas region showed strong growth in **Smoke-Free net revenues, increasing by 27.9%** (28.2% excluding currency & A/D) to **$2,073 million** for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[27](index=27&type=chunk) [Schedule 5: Reconciliation of Gross Profit (Quarters Ended September 30)](index=14&type=section&id=Schedule%205%3A%20Reconciliation%20of%20Gross%20Profit%20%28Quarters%20Ended%20September%2030%29) This schedule reconciles reported gross profit to adjusted gross profit, excluding currency and acquisition/divestiture impacts, for combustible tobacco, smoke-free products, and total PMI for the third quarter | Metric | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | % Change | % Change excl. Currency | % Change excl. Currency & A/D | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Gross Profit | $7,358 | $6,545 | 12.3% | - | - | | Adjusted Gross Profit | $7,363 | $6,559 | 12.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | | Combustible Tobacco Adjusted Gross Profit | $4,253 | $3,947 | 7.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | | Smoke-Free Adjusted Gross Profit | $3,110 | $2,612 | 19.1% | 14.4% | 14.8% | - Amortization of intangibles in Smoke-free products impacted cost of goods sold for both 2025 and 2024 third quarters[30](index=30&type=chunk) [Schedule 6: Reconciliation of Gross Profit (Nine Months Ended September 30)](index=15&type=section&id=Schedule%206%3A%20Reconciliation%20of%20Gross%20Profit%20%28Nine%20Months%20Ended%20September%2030%29) This schedule reconciles reported gross profit to adjusted gross profit, excluding currency and acquisition/divestiture impacts, for combustible tobacco, smoke-free products, and total PMI for the nine months ended September 30 | Metric | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | % Change | % Change excl. Currency | % Change excl. Currency & A/D | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Gross Profit | $20,480 | $18,266 | 12.1% | - | - | | Adjusted Gross Profit | $20,496 | $18,312 | 11.9% | 11.6% | 11.8% | | Combustible Tobacco Adjusted Gross Profit | $11,737 | $11,173 | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | | Smoke-Free Adjusted Gross Profit | $8,759 | $7,139 | 22.7% | 21.7% | 22.5% | - **Smoke-Free Adjusted Gross Profit** showed significant growth of **22.7%** (22.5% excluding currency & A/D) for the nine months ended September 30, 2025[34](index=34&type=chunk) [Adjustments of Operating Income for the Impact of Currency and Acquisitions / Divestitures](index=16&type=section&id=Adjustments%20of%20Operating%20Income%20for%20the%20Impact%20of%20Currency%20and%20Acquisitions%20%2F%20Divestitures) This section provides a reconciliation of operating income, adjusted for currency and acquisition/divestiture impacts, across different regions for both the third quarter and nine months ended September 30 | Metric | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | % Change | % Change excl. Currency & A/D | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Operating Income (Q3) | $4,263 | $3,654 | 16.7% | 10.8% | | Operating Income (9M) | $11,519 | $10,143 | 13.6% | 11.6% | [Schedule 8: Reconciliation of Operating Income to Adjusted Operating Income, excluding Currency and Acquisitions / Divestitures](index=17&type=section&id=Schedule%208%3A%20Reconciliation%20of%20Operating%20Income%20to%20Adjusted%20Operating%20Income%2C%20excluding%20Currency%20and%20Acquisitions%20%2F%20Divestitures) This schedule reconciles reported operating income to adjusted operating income, excluding currency and acquisition/divestiture impacts, for total PMI and by region for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, detailing the impact of special items | Metric | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | % Change | % Change excl. Currency & A/D | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Adjusted Operating Income (Q3) | $4,670 | $4,153 | 12.4% | 7.5% | | Adjusted Operating Income (9M) | $12,706 | $11,169 | 13.8% | 12.5% | [Schedule 9: Reconciliation of Reported Operating Income to Adjusted Operating Income (Quarters Ended September 30)](index=18&type=section&id=Schedule%209%3A%20Reconciliation%20of%20Reported%20Operating%20Income%20to%20Adjusted%20Operating%20Income%20%28Quarters%20Ended%20September%2030%29) This schedule provides a detailed reconciliation of reported operating income to adjusted operating income for the third quarter, breaking down the impact of special items by total PMI and by region | Item | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | Change Fav./(Unfav.) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Reported Operating Income | $4,263 | $3,654 | $609 | | Loss on sale of Vectura Group | — | $(198) | $198 | | Amortization of intangibles | $(250) | $(256) | $6 | | Germany excise tax classification litigation charge | $(176) | — | $(176) | | RBH (Canada) Plan Implementation | $19 | — | $19 | | Egypt sales tax charge | — | $(45) | $45 | | Adjusted Operating Income | $4,670 | $4,153 | $517 | - The Americas region experienced a significant decline in **reported operating income by 76.6% to $32 million** in Q3 2025, primarily due to a negative price variance of $(204) million, despite a positive volume/mix impact of $136 million[47](index=47&type=chunk) [Schedule 10: Reconciliation of Reported Operating Income to Adjusted Operating Income (Nine Months Ended September 30)](index=20&type=section&id=Schedule%2010%3A%20Reconciliation%20of%20Reported%20Operating%20Income%20to%20Adjusted%20Operating%20Income%20%28Nine%20Months%20Ended%20September%2030%29) This schedule provides a detailed reconciliation of reported operating income to adjusted operating income for the nine months ended September 30, breaking down the impact of special items by total PMI and by region | Item | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | Change Fav./(Unfav.) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Reported Operating Income | $11,519 | $10,143 | $1,376 | | Restructuring charges | $(243) | $(168) | $(75) | | Impairment of goodwill and other intangibles | $(41) | $(27) | $(14) | | Egypt sales tax charge | — | $(45) | $45 | | Loss on sale of Vectura Group | — | $(198) | $198 | | Germany excise tax classification litigation charge | $(176) | — | $(176) | | RBH (Canada) Plan Implementation | $19 | — | $19 | | Amortization of intangibles | $(746) | $(588) | $(158) | | Adjusted Operating Income | $12,706 | $11,169 | $1,537 | - For the nine months, **Europe's Adjusted Operating Income increased by 12.9% to $5,853 million**, while the Americas saw a **7.5% increase to $1,072 million**, despite a negative price variance of $(60) million[50](index=50&type=chunk)[53](index=53&type=chunk) [Schedule 11: Reconciliation of Adjusted Operating Income Margin, excluding Currency and Acquisitions / Divestitures](index=22&type=section&id=Schedule%2011%3A%20Reconciliation%20of%20Adjusted%20Operating%20Income%20Margin%2C%20excluding%20Currency%20and%20Acquisitions%20%2F%20Divestitures) This schedule reconciles adjusted operating income margin, excluding currency and acquisition/divestiture impacts, for total PMI and by region for both the third quarter and nine months ended September 30 | Metric | 2025 | 2024 | % Points Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Adjusted Operating Income Margin (Q3) | 43.1% | 41.9% | 1.2 | | Adjusted Operating Income Margin excl. Currency (Q3) | 42.8% | 41.9% | 0.9 | | Adjusted Operating Income Margin excl. Currency & A/D (Q3) | 42.5% | 41.9% | 0.6 | | Metric | 2025 | 2024 | % Points Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Adjusted Operating Income Margin (9M) | 42.0% | 39.6% | 2.4 | | Adjusted Operating Income Margin excl. Currency (9M) | 41.7% | 39.6% | 2.1 | | Adjusted Operating Income Margin excl. Currency & A/D (9M) | 41.5% | 39.6% | 1.9 | [Schedule 12: Condensed Statements of Earnings](index=23&type=section&id=Schedule%2012%3A%20Condensed%20Statements%20of%20Earnings) This schedule presents condensed statements of earnings for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, detailing net revenues, cost of sales, gross profit, operating income, and net earnings attributable to PMI | Item | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | Change Fav./(Unfav.) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Revenues (Q3) | $10,845 | $9,911 | 9.4% | | Gross profit (Q3) | $7,358 | $6,545 | 12.4% | | Operating Income (Q3) | $4,263 | $3,654 | 16.7% | | Net Earnings attributable to PMI (Q3) | $3,478 | $3,082 | 12.8% | | Item | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | Change Fav./(Unfav.) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Revenues (9M) | $30,286 | $28,172 | 7.5% | | Gross profit (9M) | $20,480 | $18,266 | 12.1% | | Operating Income (9M) | $11,519 | $10,143 | 13.6% | | Net Earnings attributable to PMI (9M) | $9,207 | $7,636 | 20.6% | [Schedule 13: Condensed Balance Sheets](index=24&type=section&id=Schedule%2013%3A%20Condensed%20Balance%20Sheets) This schedule provides condensed balance sheets as of September 30, 2025, and December 31, 2024, detailing assets, liabilities, and stockholders' (deficit) equity | Item | Sep 30, 2025 (millions) | Dec 31, 2024 (millions) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total assets | $67,061 | $61,784 | | Total liabilities | $76,045 | $71,654 | | Total PMI stockholders' deficit | $(10,914) | $(11,750) | - **Total assets increased by $5,277 million** from December 31, 2024, to September 30, 2025, while **total liabilities increased by $4,391 million**[63](index=63&type=chunk) [Schedule 14: Calculation of Total Debt to Adjusted EBITDA and Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA Ratios](index=25&type=section&id=Schedule%2014%3A%20Calculation%20of%20Total%20Debt%20to%20Adjusted%20EBITDA%20and%20Net%20Debt%20to%20Adjusted%20EBITDA%20Ratios) This schedule presents the calculation of Total Debt to Adjusted EBITDA and Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratios for the year ended September 30, 2025 (12 months rolling) and December 31, 2024, along with the components of Adjusted EBITDA | Ratio | Year Ended Sep 30, 2025 (12 months rolling) | Year Ended Dec 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Total Debt to Adjusted EBITDA | 2.92 | 2.93 | | Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA | 2.69 | 2.66 | | Item | 12 months rolling (Sep 30, 2025) (millions) | Year Ended Dec 31, 2024 (millions) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Earnings | $9,112 | $7,503 | | Provision for income taxes | $2,934 | $3,017 | | Interest expense, net | $1,074 | $1,143 | | Depreciation, amortization and impairment of goodwill and other intangibles | $1,993 | $1,814 | | Adjusted EBITDA | $17,131 | $15,580 | [Schedule 15: Reconciliation of Operating Cash Flow to Operating Cash Flow, excluding Currency](index=26&type=section&id=Schedule%2015%3A%20Reconciliation%20of%20Operating%20Cash%20Flow%20to%20Operating%20Cash%20Flow%2C%20excluding%20Currency) This schedule reconciles net cash provided by operating activities (operating cash flow) to operating cash flow excluding currency impacts for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30 | Metric | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash provided by operating activities (Q3) | $4,462 | $3,342 | 33.5% | | Net cash provided by operating activities, excl. currency (Q3) | $4,200 | $3,342 | 25.7% | | Metric | 2025 (millions) | 2024 (millions) | % Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net cash provided by operating activities (9M) | $7,524 | $8,215 | (8.4)% | | Net cash provided by operating activities, excl. currency (9M) | $7,193 | $8,215 | (12.4)% |

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are down following a rally on Monday, with major indices showing slight declines pre-market [1][3] - The federal government shutdown is impacting billions of dollars worth of projects, affecting the economy and people's lives [1] Earnings Watch - Investors are focused on earnings reports from major companies including Netflix, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, and RTX Corp, which will influence market sentiment for the week [2][4][14] - Netflix shares are up 0.27% pre-market, with expectations for strong third-quarter results [5] - Coca-Cola shares are up 0.10% pre-market, with a favorable price trend despite lower performance metrics [5] - Philip Morris shares are down 0.04% pre-market ahead of its earnings call [4] - RTX Corp shares are up 0.49% pre-market, with high scores in Momentum and Quality [14] Treasury Yields and Market Sentiment - The 10-year Treasury bond yield is at 3.97%, while the two-year bond yield is at 3.45% [3] - Market expectations indicate a 98.9% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming October meeting [3] Stock Performance - Major indices showed gains on Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite up 1.37%, S&P 500 up 1.07%, and Dow Jones up 1.12% [8] - Pre-market performance shows declines for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF [3] Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investors have been net buyers of U.S. stocks in 23 of the last 26 weeks, with significant purchases noted last week [10] - The VIX score indicates higher volatility, yet the S&P 500 remains near all-time highs [10][11]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are down following a rally on Monday, with major indices showing slight declines pre-market [1] - The federal government shutdown is impacting billions of dollars worth of projects, affecting the economy and people's lives [1] Earnings Watch - Investors are focused on earnings reports from major companies including Netflix, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, and RTX Corp, which will influence market sentiment for the week [2] - Netflix shares are up 0.27% pre-market, with expectations for strong third-quarter results [5] - Coca-Cola shares are up 0.10% pre-market, anticipating its third-quarter results [5] - Philip Morris shares are down 0.04% pre-market ahead of its earnings call [4] - RTX Corp shares are up 0.49% pre-market, with investors awaiting its third-quarter results [14] Treasury Yields and Market Sentiment - The 10-year Treasury bond yield is at 3.97%, while the two-year bond yield is at 3.45% [3] - Market expectations indicate a 98.9% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming October meeting [3] Stock Performance - Major indices showed the following pre-market changes: Dow Jones -0.19%, S&P 500 -0.13%, Nasdaq 100 -0.16%, Russell 2000 -0.27% [3] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is down 0.07% at $670.79, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is down 0.36% at $611.18 [3] Analyst Insights - Retail investors have been net buyers of U.S. stocks for 23 of the last 26 weeks, with the largest purchase in five months occurring last week [10] - The VIX score nearly hit 29, indicating higher volatility, yet the S&P 500 remains near all-time highs [10][11]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest now [1] - The energy demands of AI technologies are immense, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities, leading to concerns about power grid capacity and rising electricity prices [2] - A specific company is highlighted as a key player in the AI energy sector, owning critical energy infrastructure assets that are essential for supporting the anticipated surge in energy demand from AI [3][7] Investment Opportunity - The company in focus is not a chipmaker or cloud platform but is positioned to benefit significantly from the increasing energy needs of AI data centers [3] - It operates as a "toll booth" for energy, collecting fees on exported liquefied natural gas (LNG) and is poised to capitalize on the onshoring trend driven by tariffs [5][6] - The company is debt-free and has a substantial cash reserve, equating to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, making it financially robust compared to other firms in the sector [8] Market Position - The company plays a crucial role in U.S. LNG exportation and is capable of executing large-scale engineering, procurement, and construction projects across various energy sectors [7] - It has an equity stake in another AI-related company, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth engines in the AI space [9] - The stock is currently trading at less than 7 times earnings, indicating it is undervalued relative to its potential [10] Future Outlook - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, reinforcing the importance of investing in AI [12] - The combination of AI infrastructure needs, the onshoring boom, and a focus on nuclear energy positions this company favorably for future growth [14]

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Group 1 - Analysts at Stifel are optimistic about American tobacco companies ahead of their third-quarter earnings reports [2] - Philip Morris and Altria are scheduled to report their earnings on October 21 [2]

Core Insights - Billionaire Philippe Laffont's Coatue Management focuses on high-growth technology and AI-driven stocks, managing $69.5 billion in assets as of May 27, 2025 [1] - The fund's largest public equity holdings include Nvidia, Broadcom, Meta, and CoreWeave, with CoreWeave representing 8.1% of the portfolio as of Q2 2025, emphasizing foundational AI infrastructure [2] - Recent easing of trade tensions with China and positive bank earnings have contributed to a recovery in U.S. stocks, with optimism growing around potential talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders [3] Company Movements - In Q2 2025, Laffont reduced his position in Amazon by 596,184 shares (6% decrease QoQ) while increasing his stake in CoreWeave by nearly 3.4 million shares (24% increase QoQ) [4] - The fund also expanded its positions in Nvidia and Broadcom by 35% and 59%, respectively, during the same period [4] Stock Picks and Performance - The article lists 10 stock picks from Coatue Management with significant upside potential, based on Q2 2025 13F filings and Wall Street analysts' price targets as of October 15, 2025 [7] - Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) has an upside potential of 19.40% despite a share price return of -11.15% between July 1 and October 15, 2025, with a $37 million investment announced for expanding its manufacturing facility [10][11] - Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:Z) has an upside potential of 19.77% and recently launched an application on ChatGPT, enhancing its digital footprint [15][16][17] - Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) shows an upside potential of 24.37% despite a share price return of -16.28%, with significant upgrades announced for its Mailchimp platform aimed at boosting retailer sales during the holiday season [19][20][21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of conservative dividend-paying stocks for older investors, highlighting Philip Morris International, PepsiCo, and Enterprise Products Partners as reliable options for generating steady long-term income [1][2]. Group 1: Philip Morris International - Philip Morris International (PMI) is one of the largest tobacco companies, spun off from Altria in 2008, focusing on international markets with higher smoking rates [3]. - Despite declining global smoking rates, PMI's stock has increased nearly 210% since its public debut, with a total return of 608% including reinvested dividends [4]. - PMI has offset declining traditional cigarette shipments by raising prices, cutting costs, and expanding its smoke-free product portfolio, which accounted for 41% of revenue and 42% of gross profit in the latest quarter [5]. - Analysts project PMI's earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% from 2024 to 2027, with a forward dividend yield of 3.7% [6]. Group 2: PepsiCo - PepsiCo is a leading beverage and packaged food company, recognized as a Dividend King with 53 consecutive years of dividend increases, currently offering a forward yield of 3.8% [7]. - The company has adapted to health trends by expanding its beverage portfolio with healthier options and updating its packaged food brands [8]. - Over the past decade, PepsiCo's stock has risen 55%, generating a total return of nearly 110%, with analysts expecting an EPS CAGR of nearly 8% from 2024 to 2027 [9]. Group 3: Enterprise Products Partners - Enterprise Products Partners operates over 50,000 miles of pipeline, generating revenue by charging fees to upstream and downstream companies, insulating it from commodity price volatility [10][11]. - As a master limited partnership (MLP), it offers tax advantages and has consistently raised distributions for 28 years, currently providing a high forward yield of 7.2% [12]. - Analysts expect its earnings per unit (EPU) to grow at a steady CAGR of 4% from 2024 to 2027, with the stock appearing attractive at 11 times next year's EPU [13].

Core Insights - Philip Morris International is expected to announce earnings of $2.10 per share and sales of $10.66 billion, surpassing last year's results of $1.91 per share and $9.91 billion in sales [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $243 billion and generated $39 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, with operating profits of $14 billion and a net income of $8.2 billion [4] Historical Earnings Performance - Over the past five years, Philip Morris has recorded 20 earnings data points, with positive one-day returns occurring in 55% of cases, yielding a median positive return of 2.5% and a maximum return of 10.9% [7] - The percentage of positive one-day returns drops to 50% when considering the last three years, with the median of negative returns at -2.7% [7] Post-Earnings Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical trends to create strategic positions before and after earnings announcements, analyzing the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns [6][8] - A less risky approach involves understanding the correlation between 1D and 5D returns post-earnings, allowing traders to position themselves accordingly based on positive 1D returns [8]