Core Viewpoint - Rivian faces significant challenges in its second quarter, including sluggish sales and the impact of tariffs on imported auto parts, alongside a critical setback related to the loss of revenue from zero-emission credits [1][10]. Q2 Financial Performance - Rivian's second-quarter revenue increased by 13% year-over-year to $1.3 billion, with a net loss of $1.1 billion, an improvement from the previous year's loss of $1.5 billion [2]. - The adjusted earnings per share were reported at a loss of $0.97, which was worse than analysts' expectations of a loss of $0.80 per share [2]. - The company reaffirmed its delivery guidance for 2025, expecting to deliver between 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles, although a strong performance in the second half of the year is necessary to meet this target [2]. Gross Loss and EBITDA Forecast - Rivian's gross loss for the second quarter was $206 million, an improvement from the prior year's loss of $451 million, but still disappointing as investors hoped for gross-profit positivity for the full year [3]. - The adjusted EBITDA loss forecast for the full year was lowered to between $2 billion and $2.5 billion, compared to the previous forecast of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion [3]. Zero-Emission Credits Revenue - Rivian generates a significant portion of its revenue from selling zero-emission credits, which are crucial for young electric vehicle manufacturers [5][10]. - The removal of the emissions penalty by the administration has eliminated the incentive for automakers to purchase these credits, leading to a projected revenue drop from $300 million to approximately $160 million for 2025 [9][10]. - This loss of revenue from zero-emission credits is a major setback for Rivian, potentially impacting its ability to achieve gross profits in 2025 [10]. Future Outlook - Despite the setback from lost revenue, Rivian's future largely depends on the success of its upcoming R2 electric SUV, with production expected to begin in the first half of 2026 [11]. - If the R2 is successful, it may mitigate concerns over lost revenue and profits from zero-emission credits [11].

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle (EV) market is evolving, with a contrast between growth-oriented start-ups like Rivian and established automakers like Ford, with Ford currently positioned as the better investment choice [2][12][14]. Rivian - Rivian has ambitious growth plans but faces heavy costs, with a net loss of $541 million in Q1 2025, an improvement from a $1.44 billion loss in Q1 2024 [4]. - The company shifted from gross losses of $527 million in 2024 to a gross profit of $206 million in Q1 2025, yet continues to struggle with cash burn and supply chain inefficiencies [4]. - A strategic partnership with Volkswagen includes a $5 billion investment and joint development of EV platforms, providing confidence and access to global scale, but the new factory under this deal will incur significant costs [6][7]. Ford - Ford has a solid foundation with scale, cash flow, and a dividend, achieving four consecutive years of revenue growth [8]. - The company has embraced EVs with models like the F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E while maintaining a strong lineup of internal combustion vehicles, which provide steady income [9]. - Ford assembles over 80% of its vehicles in the U.S., giving it an advantage against rising tariffs, with an expected $2 billion tariff bill, which is more manageable compared to competitors like General Motors [10]. - The stock trades at a modest multiple of 14 times earnings and offers a reliable dividend yield of around 5.43%, which Rivian cannot match [11]. Investment Outlook - Rivian is seen as a speculative investment with high burn rates and no profits in sight, despite its potential and brand appeal [12]. - Ford is positioned to offer value, income, and relative geopolitical insulation, making it a more compelling choice for investors seeking stability combined with EV growth potential [13][14].

Core Insights - JR Research is recognized as a top analyst in technology, software, and internet sectors, focusing on growth and GARP strategies [1] - The investment approach emphasizes identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities with strong price action to generate alpha above the S&P 500 [1][2] - The investment group Ultimate Growth Investing specializes in high-potential opportunities across various sectors with a focus on robust fundamentals and turnaround plays [3] Investment Strategy - The strategy combines price action analysis with fundamental investing to identify growth opportunities with significant upside potential [2] - The focus is on avoiding overhyped stocks while targeting battered stocks that have recovery potential [2] - The investment outlook typically spans 18 to 24 months for the thesis to materialize [3] Target Audience - The group is designed for investors looking to capitalize on growth stocks with strong fundamentals and attractive valuations [3]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 Wedbush将Rivian Automotive的目标价从18美元下调至16美元，维持"跑赢大盘"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive's recent financial results indicate challenges in profitability and production, with a focus on the upcoming R2 vehicle launch in 2026 as a potential turning point for the company [4][10][14]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Rivian reported revenues of $1.30 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding Wall Street's projection of $1.27 billion [4]. - The diluted loss per share was 97 cents, which is a 33% improvement from the same period last year but significantly worse than the expected loss of 65 cents per share [4]. - Rivian's gross margin was -16%, a decline from a positive gross margin of 10% in Q4 2024 and 17% in Q1 2025, with vehicle production falling approximately 57% from Q1 due to supply chain issues [5]. Future Outlook - Rivian updated its adjusted 2025 EBITDA guidance, now expecting a loss between $2 billion and $2.25 billion, which is about $325 million more than the previous estimate [6]. - The company is optimistic about the R2 vehicle, set to launch in the first half of 2026, which is crucial for its long-term success [8][10]. - Rivian has locked in materials costs for the R2, which are 50% lower than those for the R1, potentially aiding in achieving a sustainably positive gross margin [9]. Market Position - Rivian's stock has seen a significant decline, down around 88% since going public, contrasting with the performance of market leaders like Tesla and BYD, which have achieved substantial returns [13][14]. - Analysts view Rivian as significantly undervalued, with price targets reaching as high as $18, despite the current hold rating [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive's shares declined following mixed second-quarter results and a downbeat outlook, leading to price target cuts from analysts [1][3][8] Financial Performance - Second-quarter revenue was reported at $1.303 billion, a 5.1% year-over-year increase, slightly exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.29 billion [1] - The adjusted loss was 97 cents per share, wider than the expected 76 cents per share loss, indicating ongoing profitability challenges [2] - Adjusted EBITDA loss was $667 million, significantly worse than the anticipated loss of $492.7 million, attributed to increased investments in the R2 product line and service infrastructure [5][11] Revenue Breakdown - Software and services revenue rose to $376 million from $318 million in the prior quarter, with approximately $182 million from a joint venture with Volkswagen [4] - Regulatory credit revenue was only $3 million, far below the forecast of $107 million, due to legislative changes affecting demand for EPA and CAFE credits [9] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted gross margin fell sharply to 4.9%, down from 26.5% in the previous quarter, primarily due to lower production volumes and fixed cost impacts of approximately $137 million [4] - Core automotive gross margin excluding credits dropped to -36%, compared to an estimated -11%, resulting in a combined gross profit loss of $335 million [10] Guidance and Outlook - Rivian reaffirmed its full-year delivery guidance of 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles but downgraded its profitability outlook, now expecting gross profit to be roughly breakeven, down from a prior forecast of $300 million [5][6] - Adjusted EBITDA guidance was revised to a range of negative $2.25 billion to $2.0 billion, below the consensus estimate of negative $1.88 billion [6][12] Analyst Ratings and Reactions - Wedbush analyst maintained an Outperform rating but lowered the price forecast from $18 to $16, citing regulatory uncertainty and macro headwinds as challenges [3][7] - JP Morgan analyst reaffirmed an Underweight rating and cut the price forecast from $10 to $9, reflecting a more pessimistic view following the wider-than-expected EBITDA loss [8][12] Cash Position - The company maintains sufficient liquidity with $7.5 billion in cash and expected inflows from Volkswagen and DOE loans [13]

【文/观察者网 潘昱辰 编辑/高莘】综合路透社、《华尔街日报》等外媒报道，由于受到美国总统特朗 普政策转变和贸易局势紧张的打击，美国电动汽车新势力Rivian和Lucid均于8月5日公布了令人失望的上 半年业绩，并为今年提供了较为悲观的预期。 财报显示，Rivian在2025年上半年营收为25.43亿美元（约合人民币182.8亿元），净亏损为16.56亿美元 （约合人民币119.1亿元）；Lucid上半年营收为4.95亿美元（约合人民币35.6亿元），净亏损为9.05亿美 元（约合人民币65.1亿元）。 其后，Rivian股价大跌约4%，Lucid股价则大跌7%。 今年上半年，特朗普先后颁布一系列政策，包括取消电动汽车消费者的7500美元（约合人民币5.4万 元）税收抵免，并对进口汽车及零部件征收25%的关税，同时还取消了对燃油车企的排放罚款。由于 Rivian和Lucid等公司过去主要将排放信贷出售给传统车企以避免罚款，随着燃油车企不再需要这些信 贷，新势力的相应收入也随之消失。 Rivian视觉中国 在业绩报告中，Rivian主要将损失扩大估计归咎于信贷价值的缩减，预计约为其估计的3亿美元（约合 人民币2 ...

Rivian Automotive (RIVN -2.13%), the electric vehicle startup known for its adventure-oriented trucks and SUVs, released its earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 on August 5, 2025. The most important headline was a return to negative gross profit (GAAP) after two straight positive quarters, despite better-than- expected GAAP revenue performance. Revenue (GAAP) was $1,303 million, compared to the consensus estimate of $1,285.89 million for the same period. This exceeded the consensus estimate by $1 ...

Core Insights - Rivian is facing challenges due to evolving policies affecting EV production in the US, which are expected to impact results and cash flow [1][2] - The company has revised its anticipated EBITDA losses for the 2025 fiscal year to a range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion, up from a previous estimate of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion [1] - Rivian's CFO indicated that total sales in regulatory credits are expected to be around $160 million, nearly half of the prior outlook of $300 million [2] Financial Performance - Rivian reported second-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion, slightly exceeding Wall Street estimates of $1.28 billion, but operating losses were higher than anticipated with total operating expenses of $908 million [12] - The stock fell about 5% after trading hours following the earnings report [13] Production and Cost Outlook - Production costs are expected to increase due to recent policy changes, with tariffs anticipated to have a net impact of a couple thousand dollars per unit for the remainder of 2025 [3] - Rivian is on track to deliver its R2 model, a midsize SUV priced between $45,000 and $50,000, expected next year [10] - The company has secured contracts with suppliers to ensure that the cost of making the R2 will be about half that of the R1 model [11]

格隆汇8月6日｜Rivian(RIVN.US)：2025年Q2营收13亿美元，市场预期12.84亿美元，上年同期11.58亿美 元。2025年交付量预计为40,000-46,000辆。预计第三季度将是公司今年在消费和商用汽车领域交付量最 高的季度。 ...