Core Viewpoint - A sector rally was intensified following Trump's announcement regarding the U.S. response to China's new export restrictions on rare-earth minerals [1] Group 1 - The U.S. plans to retaliate against China's export restrictions, which has led to increased optimism in the sector [1] - The announcement from Trump has triggered a rally in the sector, indicating potential investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Short-term market volatility provides a buying opportunity for investors, particularly in the context of a strong performance in the Chinese stock market, led by technology stocks [1] Group 1: Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index around 25,000 points is considered a good buying opportunity [1] - The recent restrictions on rare earth exports by China are viewed as a countermeasure to U.S. technology restrictions [1] - There is a 90% optimistic probability in polls regarding the resolution of trade conflicts before the APEC summit [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - A rotation of funds from growth stocks to value stocks, such as banks, insurance, and brokerage firms, is deemed worthwhile [1] - Financial stocks have lagged in performance but have significant index weight, which may drive further market gains [1] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - The company holds shares in SMIC, despite its high price-to-earnings ratio of 160 times, due to the market's willingness to pay for its potential for earnings growth [1] - Companies like Alibaba and Tencent are viewed positively, with expectations for their stock prices to reach new highs, and a return to HKD 180 for Alibaba is considered likely [1]

第二个噩耗：美债危机又被重提，美国亿万富翁桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧警告称，美国政府债务已经 超过了37.86万亿，而且还在快速增长中，在叠加美国面对的内外冲突，已经催生出一种与二战前夕"非 常类似"的氛围，他预测如果不做出改变，在特朗普的领导下，美债危机在两三年内就将爆发。将会大 幅度的削弱美元在国际市场中的地位。甚至会导致美国分裂。 第三个噩耗：特朗普后院失火，因为美国同意卡塔尔出资，在爱达荷州芒廷霍姆空军基地内建设一处空 军训练设施。并且同意卡塔尔的意志F 15战斗机编队在这里进行训练。 这样的消息一出立马引发了特朗普内部阵营的震动，特朗普的盟友极右翼网红劳拉·卢默指出这是让一 个资助恐怖组织伤害美国人的伊斯兰国家，堂而皇之的有了在美国土地上进行驻军的资格。 随着中美新一轮谈判的临近，中美之间已进入到"卡脖子大战"，美国祭出芯片管制和关税政策，中国回 敬稀土出口和大豆进口限制。稀土卡住了美军工和高科技领域，农民是特朗普的铁票仓。中方的每一次 出手都精准的打击在美政府的痛点上。 这也让特朗普怒不可遏，在8个小时内特朗普先是短暂的愤怒，要制裁中国收取高关税，结果他的一句 制裁，直接导致美股震荡7大巨头一夜之间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is open to enhancing dialogue and cooperation with relevant countries and regions to maintain the stability of global supply chains, amidst reports from Indian media regarding the lifting of restrictions on rare earth exports to India [1] Group 1 - The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, addressed questions regarding the alleged lifting of rare earth export restrictions to India [1] - Mao Ning stated that he was not aware of the specific media reports mentioned by the foreign media [1] - The Chinese government expresses a willingness to strengthen cooperation with other countries to ensure the stability of global production and supply chains [1]

国的出口在上个月意外增长，官方数据显示，向欧盟和其他市场的出货量增加，弥补了对美国出口的下 降。 这些数据出现在北京和华盛顿在脆弱的贸易战休战状态下，预计将为中国领导人提供提振信心，帮助他 们推动一个受低迷的国内消费困扰的经济。 数据显示，7月份出口同比增长7.2%，较前一个月有所改善，比彭博社对经济学家的调查预期的5.6%好 出许多。 报告显示，面向美国的货物同比下降21.7%，因为特朗普的关税虽然有所减轻，但仍在影响着贸易。 然而，向欧盟的出口增长了9.2%，而向东南亚国家联盟的出口增长了16.6%。 然而，这两个经济超级大国正在努力达成协议，以降低贸易紧张局势。 对于中国领导人来说，另一个积极的信号是，作为衡量国内需求的关键指标，7月份的进口同比增长 4.1%，而彭博社的预期则是下降1%。 Pinpoint资产管理公司的首席经济学家王志伟表示，这些数据表明"今年到目前为止，出口在强有力地支 撑经济"。 "由于美国关税的前置采购效应消退，预计出口增长可能在未来几个月放缓，"他说。 "关键问题是，中国的出口将放缓多少，以及这将如何影响整个经济，"他补充道。 北京已设定今年经济增长的官方目标为约5%。 但是， ...

【文/观察者网 潘昱辰 编辑/高莘】综合路透社、《华尔街日报》等外媒报道，由于受到美国总统特朗 普政策转变和贸易局势紧张的打击，美国电动汽车新势力Rivian和Lucid均于8月5日公布了令人失望的上 半年业绩，并为今年提供了较为悲观的预期。 财报显示，Rivian在2025年上半年营收为25.43亿美元（约合人民币182.8亿元），净亏损为16.56亿美元 （约合人民币119.1亿元）；Lucid上半年营收为4.95亿美元（约合人民币35.6亿元），净亏损为9.05亿美 元（约合人民币65.1亿元）。 其后，Rivian股价大跌约4%，Lucid股价则大跌7%。 今年上半年，特朗普先后颁布一系列政策，包括取消电动汽车消费者的7500美元（约合人民币5.4万 元）税收抵免，并对进口汽车及零部件征收25%的关税，同时还取消了对燃油车企的排放罚款。由于 Rivian和Lucid等公司过去主要将排放信贷出售给传统车企以避免罚款，随着燃油车企不再需要这些信 贷，新势力的相应收入也随之消失。 Rivian视觉中国 在业绩报告中，Rivian主要将损失扩大估计归咎于信贷价值的缩减，预计约为其估计的3亿美元（约合 人民币2 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. and China have agreed to extend the suspension of tariffs for an additional 90 days, pending final approval from President Trump [1][2] - The current suspension period is set to end on August 12, after which the U.S. plans to reintroduce tariffs on China [2] - The discussions included topics such as U.S. sanctions on Russia and China's restrictions on rare earth exports [3] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin described the negotiations as constructive, indicating a positive outlook for future talks [1] - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng emphasized the importance of a stable and sustainable U.S.-China economic relationship for global economic stability [2][3] - The U.S. has expressed concerns over China's reluctance to participate in sanctions against Russia, hinting at potential economic repercussions [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,712.00 | -14.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,390.00 | -46.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 589,140.00 | +9004.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 405,479.00 | -5516.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -30,962.00 | +2120.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -46,142.00 | +3302.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 40.00 | +4.00↑ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -8.00 | +6.00↑ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 89,598.00 | +1753.00↑ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 9,678.00 | +169.00↑ | | | 内蒙 ...

就在这个节骨眼上，印度也登场了。德国《法兰克福评论报》报道称，印度政府已推出"国家关键矿产计划"（NCMN），打算在5至10年内打造出自己的稀 土产业链，并大力向欧美国家出口稀土产品，试图与中国"分庭抗礼"。 然而，面对来自欧盟和印度的压力，中国并没有在第一时间"正面硬刚"，而是由工业和信息化部默默发出一条指令，要求全国所有稀土相关科研机构、关键 企业上报参与稀土研发的专家名单，并统一收缴其护照。没有批准，专家不得离境；要出国，必须层层审批。 事情的起点其实非常"巧合"，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩正筹备下月访华，而欧盟驻华大使却突然放话，称"欧洲企业因稀土供应陷入恐慌"，希望中方尽快解 决问题。不仅如此，大使还提到了"双方经贸高层会议已被取消"的消息，明显是在释放施压信号。 紧接着，冯德莱恩本人在G7峰会上当场举起一块稀土磁铁，高调宣称："中国主导了全球稀土磁铁的生产链。"她还暗示，欧美需要联手来"应对东方挑战"。 这番言论虽然没有明说"制裁"或"谈崩"，但其中的信息已经很明确：欧盟想要中方放宽对稀土的出口限制，尤其是关键军民两用领域的稀土产品。 这条命令外表看似"内部行政管理"，实则封锁了稀土技术外泄的所有通道 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is reportedly considering significant tariff reductions on China to ease ongoing trade tensions and alleviate global economic pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Reductions - The initial goal set by the Trump administration is to reduce tariffs on China to below 60% [1]. - Current tariffs on China are as high as 145%, and any reduction would still leave the overall tariff rate significantly above historical levels [3][5]. - If tariffs are reduced, it is anticipated that the U.S. average tariff rate could decrease by over 20 percentage points to around 23% [5]. Group 2: Rare Earth Elements - A key demand from the U.S. is for China to lift restrictions on rare earth exports, particularly those used in manufacturing magnets [1]. - China currently produces about 90% of the world's rare earth elements, which are critical for various industries including defense and electric vehicles [1]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations - The upcoming U.S.-China talks are expected to focus on mutual concerns rather than immediately resolving the extensive trade issues [2]. - Analysts suggest that the negotiations may be exploratory, with both sides having significant grievances [5]. - Progress on the fentanyl issue has also been noted, with potential separate discussions planned to address the export of precursor chemicals from China [1].