Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN ) posted first quarter earnings last week in which the electric- vehicle maker posted its second consecutive gross profit, but also lowered its forecast for total 2025 deliveries. A financial researcher and avid investor with a keen eye for innovation and disruption, as well as growth buy- outs and value stocks. Keeping an eye on the pace of high tech and early growth companies, I write about current events and the biggest news surrounding the industry, and strive to pr ...

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1][2]. Company Overview: Rivian Automotive (RIVN) - Rivian Automotive currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong momentum characteristics [3]. - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting a favorable outlook compared to the market [4]. Performance Metrics - Rivian's shares have increased by 3.11% over the past week, outperforming the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry, which remained flat [6]. - Over the past month, Rivian's stock price has risen by 21.7%, significantly higher than the industry's 7.78% [6]. - In the last quarter, Rivian's shares increased by 4.35%, and over the past year, they gained 34.31%, while the S&P 500 saw movements of -3.09% and 13.39%, respectively [7]. Trading Volume - Rivian's average 20-day trading volume is 30,243,276 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8]. Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, six earnings estimates for Rivian have been revised upwards, while none have been lowered, improving the consensus estimate from -$2.91 to -$2.46 [10]. - For the next fiscal year, five estimates have increased, with one downward revision noted [10]. Conclusion - Considering the positive momentum indicators and earnings outlook, Rivian Automotive is positioned as a 2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of A, making it a potential candidate for near-term investment [12].

Industry Overview - The auto industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous vehicles (AVs) [2][4] - Global EV sales are projected to grow by 19.2% in 2025, reaching 21.3 million units, with China leading the market [2] - By 2030, EVs are expected to account for over 40% of global light vehicle sales, increasing to more than 80% by 2040 [2] Electric Vehicle Market - Tesla was historically the dominant player in the EV market, but competition is intensifying with traditional automakers and new startups entering the space [3] - Companies like General Motors, Rivian, BYD, and NIO are making significant investments and launching ambitious product plans to capture market share [3] Autonomous Vehicle Market - The AV market is anticipated to grow from nearly $48 billion in 2025 to over $133 billion by 2030, driven by advancements in technology [4] - Major tech companies and automakers are investing heavily in AV technology to enhance road safety and reduce traffic congestion [4] Investment Opportunities - The dual transformation of electrification and automation presents substantial investment opportunities in the EV and AV sectors [5] - Investors are encouraged to consider stocks like BYD, Rivian, and NIO for potential growth [5] Rivian Automotive - Rivian is transitioning from high-end models to more affordable vehicles, with the upcoming R2 mid-size SUV expected to start around $45,000 [8] - The company has reported a positive gross profit for two consecutive quarters and aims for sustained profitability [8] - Rivian's partnership with Volkswagen involves an investment of up to $5.8 billion, supporting its next-generation electrical architecture [9] NIO Inc. - NIO has expanded its vehicle lineup and is launching new brands, including ONVO and Firefly, to capture a broader market [12][14] - The company is focusing on battery swap technology, with over 3,200 stations deployed, and aims to break even by Q4 2025 [15][16] BYD Company - BYD has shifted entirely to new energy vehicles, emerging as a global EV leader and outselling Tesla in early 2025 [17][18] - The company benefits from vertical integration, controlling production from batteries to vehicle assembly, which helps maintain low costs [19] - BYD is expanding its global footprint with new plants and aims to double overseas sales to over 800,000 units in 2025 [21]

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive is one of the few remaining pure-play electric vehicle companies, facing challenges in a competitive market as demand for EVs slows down and deliveries decline significantly [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Rivian's stock is currently trading below $15, down over 90% from its all-time highs at the IPO [2]. - Deliveries in the last quarter were only 8,640, a decrease from over 13,000 in the same quarter last year, indicating a significant drop in demand [3]. - The company achieved a gross margin of 17% in Q1, marking a record for Rivian, driven by increased revenue from software and services, which rose to $318 million from $88 million a year ago [4]. Group 2: Financial Position - Rivian has $7 billion in cash on its balance sheet and has secured billions in funding from partners like Volkswagen and the U.S. government, providing a financial cushion for future operations [5]. - The company generated $5 billion in annual revenue and has the potential to grow this figure significantly if it can scale production and improve delivery numbers [11]. Group 3: Future Plans - Rivian plans to release the R2 SUV in 2026, priced between $45,000 and $50,000, which is expected to attract a broader customer base [8]. - The company aims to leverage its strong brand and customer satisfaction to increase demand for its vehicles, particularly with the introduction of the R2 model [9]. Group 4: Market Challenges - Rivian faces intense competition from established automotive players, which are gaining market share in the U.S. [13]. - The company must demonstrate its ability to increase deliveries and achieve positive free cash flow to ensure long-term viability [14].

Core Insights - Rivian Automotive achieved a significant milestone by reporting its second consecutive quarter of gross profit, unlocking an additional $1 billion in funding from Volkswagen as part of a potential $5.8 billion investment [1][2] Financial Performance - Rivian's gross margin for the first quarter was 16.6%, surpassing Tesla's 16.3%, marking a substantial improvement from a negative gross margin of 44% a year ago [3][4] - The company reported first-quarter revenue of $1.24 billion, a 3% increase, despite a decline in vehicle deliveries, with automobile revenue falling 17% to $922 million, while software revenue tripled from $88 million to $318 million [8] - Rivian reduced its net loss from $1.5 billion a year ago to $541 million and decreased free cash outflows to $526 million from $1.5 billion [9] Production and Future Plans - Rivian is preparing for the launch of its lower-priced R2 SUV, projected to be priced around $45,000, which is expected to have broader market appeal [6][7] - The company plans to shut down its factory for about a month to retool for the R2's launch in the first half of 2026, which could trigger Volkswagen's next $1 billion investment [7] - Rivian is increasing its production capacity with an expansion of its Illinois factory and plans to begin construction of a new factory in Georgia next year [13] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on higher-margin software, recently launching a hands-free driving feature and aiming for more autonomous self-driving capabilities [5] - Rivian has adjusted its delivery forecast to between 40,000 and 46,000 units, down from a previous estimate of 46,000 to 51,000 units, while maintaining guidance for a modest gross profit and an adjusted loss of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion [11][12]

Group 1: Tesla Overview - Tesla has established itself as a leader in the electric vehicle (EV) market, prompting traditional automakers to recognize the technology as a significant business threat [1] - In 2024, Tesla sold nearly 1.8 million EVs across its various vehicle platforms, with the Model 3 and Model Y accounting for approximately 95% of total vehicle sales [2][4] - The Cybertruck, which began deliveries in late 2023, is included in the "other" category, which saw a nearly 50% decline in sales from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [5] Group 2: Rivian Overview - Rivian focuses exclusively on manufacturing and selling EV trucks for both consumer and commercial markets, ramping up production to around 50,000 vehicles annually in 2023 [6] - In Q1 2025, Rivian sold approximately 8,000 trucks, which is about 60% of the "other" vehicle sales from Tesla [7] - Rivian's business model, while showing growth potential, may face limitations due to its singular focus on EV trucks, which could restrict long-term growth opportunities [8][10] Group 3: Market Comparison - Tesla's Cybertruck has a polarizing design, while Rivian's vehicles are more traditional, potentially appealing to a broader customer base [9] - Despite Rivian's achievements, the comparison to Tesla suggests that achieving sustainable profitability may be more challenging than Rivian anticipates [10]

Core Insights - Rivian has established itself as a leading U.S.-based electric vehicle company, achieving high owner satisfaction and gross profitability in the last two quarters, with new models in development [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact - Rivian is affected by tariffs, which are increasing capital expenditures and impacting vehicle production [4] - The company has revised its vehicle delivery guidance for the year down to 40,000-46,000 vehicles from a previous estimate of 46,000-51,000 due to evolving trade regulations [5] - Capital expenditure guidance has been raised to $1.8 billion-$1.9 billion from $1.6 billion-$1.7 billion, with an expected increase in costs of a couple thousand dollars per vehicle due to tariffs [6][7] Group 2: Economic Concerns - The current economic landscape presents significant uncertainty, with a contraction in the U.S. economy and fears of a potential recession [10] - A survey indicated that 60% of CFOs expect a recession by year-end, with 95% stating tariffs hinder decision-making [10] - An economic slowdown could negatively impact vehicle sales, particularly for EVs, which are generally more expensive, with the average transaction price for an EV at $59,200, up 7% year-over-year [11] Group 3: Future Outlook - Rivian has plans for more affordable vehicles, the R2 and R3, which could enhance market share, but their launch coincides with economic uncertainty and ongoing tariffs [12] - While there is long-term potential for Rivian, the current situation may extend the timeline for achieving success [13]

Group 1 - The author has been active in the markets for several years, focusing primarily on long/short equities [1] - The author holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in Finance and Accounting, with a minor in History, and has experience managing investment portfolios [1] - The author has completed internships at a large bank and in managing a university endowment [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting due diligence before making any investment decisions [3] - It is advised that investors seek advice from brokers or financial advisers [3] - The article states that past performance is not indicative of future results, and no formal investment recommendations are made [4]

With a recession, either already underway or just around the corner, consumers have pulled back sharply on spending, particularly on big-ticket items like RVs. Tesla ( TSLA ) sales are declining, and even Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN ), despite notWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regular co ...

Group 1: Automotive Trade and Market Performance - In March 2025, the total import and export value of automotive goods reached $23.82 billion, a month-on-month increase of 32.1%, but a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [1] - In April 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.791 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17%, while cumulative retail sales for the year reached 6.918 million units, up 9% year-on-year [2] - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in April 2025 were 922,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 37%, with a penetration rate of 52.3% [2] Group 2: Company Financials and Projections - Toyota expects a 34.9% year-on-year decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2025 due to U.S. tariff policies, estimating a sales loss of up to ¥180 billion (approximately $1.25 billion) for April and May [3] - BMW Group reported Q1 2025 total revenue of €33.758 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%, with a net profit of €2.173 billion, down 26.4% [6] - Lucid delivered 3,109 vehicles in Q1 2025, maintaining its annual production forecast of nearly 20,000 vehicles [5] Group 3: Corporate Developments and Innovations - Rivian announced a $120 million investment to strengthen its supply chain by building a supplier park near its factory in Normal, Illinois [7] - Geely Holding has implemented a rotating presidency system, with former COO Dai Qing as the first rotating president, aimed at enhancing management efficiency and fostering collaboration [10] - The new model of Zhiji Auto, the L6, has received 24,000 pre-sale orders, with a price range of ¥219,900 to ¥289,900 [11] Group 4: Regulatory and Safety Issues - Volvo is recalling over 413,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to potential issues with rearview camera images not displaying [4] - CATL announced that its Tianxing series batteries have passed the new national standard tests, becoming one of the first commercial power batteries to meet the GB 38031-2025 safety requirements [12] - SAIC-GM Wuling expects solid-state batteries to be available in vehicles by 2027, indicating progress in battery technology [13]