Analyst's Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or ...

Don’t just invest—dominate with Tech Contrarians' realized return on closed positions of 65.8% since inception. You’ll get exclusive insights into high-focus stocks, curated watchlists, one-on-one portfolio consultations, and everything from live portfolio tracking to earnings updates on 50+ companies. Subscribe today for 20% off.About a week ago, we initiated coverage on Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI ) with a sell rating, “Disappointment Is Just Getting Started; Sell Call On Super Micro Computer ...

SMCI Super Micro Computer Super Micro Computer Today $32.94 +0.77 (+2.39%) 52-Week Range $17.25 ▼ $101.40 P/E Ratio 16.54 Price Target $48.33 Add to Watchlist The latest trade tariff rollouts by President Trump have hit the technology sector of the United States harder than most expected. The reason is that the tariffs seem to be centered around semiconductors and chipmakers in Asian regions, which consequently hold most of the industry's supply and logistics chain. However, some beliefs might point to a co ...

Group 1 - AMD reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of $7.438 billion, a year-over-year increase of 35.90%, exceeding market expectations of $7.13 billion [3] - The data center segment, which includes AI graphics and CPUs, generated $3.674 billion in revenue, up 57.21% year-over-year, with an operating margin of 23.37% [3] - AMD anticipates Q2 2025 revenue of approximately $7.4 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin expected to be 43%, impacted by $800 million in inventory and related reserve costs due to new export controls [3] Group 2 - Supermicro's Q3 2025 revenue was $4.6 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.48%, but significantly below market expectations of $5.42 billion [6] - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for Supermicro fell 53.03% year-over-year to $0.31, also below market expectations of $0.50 [6] - Supermicro lowered its full-year revenue guidance from $23.5 billion-$25 billion to $21.8 billion-$22.6 billion due to delayed customer deliveries and increased inventory reserves [6] Group 3 - The AI semiconductor industry faces challenges due to new tariffs and export controls, significantly impacting companies like Nvidia and AMD [8] - Nvidia's CEO indicated that being excluded from the Chinese AI market would result in substantial losses, as the Greater China region accounted for 39% of its revenue in FY2024 [8] - The uncertainty from U.S. policies and tariffs may lead clients to postpone expansion and technology upgrades, affecting the upstream supply chain, including companies like Supermicro [7][9]

I'm a full time value investor and writer who enjoys using classical value ratios to pick my portfolio. My previous working background is in private credit and CRE mezzanine financing for a family office. I'm also a fluent Mandarin speaker in both business and court settings, previously serving as a court interpreter. I have spent a good chunk of my adult working life in China and Asia. I have worked with top CRE developers in the past including The Witkoff Group , Kushner Companies, Durst Organization and ...

With just one subscription to Beyond the Wall Investing , you can save thousands of dollars a year on equity research reports from banks. You'll keep your finger on the pulse and have access to the latest and highest-quality analysis of this type of information.Back in early March, I published my bullish upgrade on Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: SMCI ) stock (from "Hold" to "Buy"), expecting that SMCI should keep reversing massively in the span of the next few weeks as itsHe leads the investing group B ...

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer's fourth-quarter revenue guidance significantly underperformed analyst expectations, indicating potential obstacles in the AI infrastructure boom [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the third quarter, Super Micro reported revenue of $4.6 billion, below the expected $5.42 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.31, also lower than the anticipated $0.50 [3][4]. - The net profit per share dropped to $0.17, a substantial decline from $0.66 in the same period last year [4]. - The fourth-quarter revenue guidance is set between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, which is far below the market expectation of $6.82 billion [5][6]. - The full-year revenue forecast for fiscal 2025 has been revised down from $23.5-25 billion to $21.8-22.6 billion [8]. Market and Economic Context - CEO Charles Liang noted that customer hesitation between current Hopper and upcoming Blackwell GPUs has led to delayed purchasing decisions [6]. - Economic uncertainty and the impact of Trump's tariffs are beginning to manifest, contributing to the company's cautious outlook [6]. Company Challenges - The past year has been tumultuous for Super Micro, with significant stock price fluctuations and scrutiny over accounting practices following a report from Hindenburg Research alleging "accounting manipulation" [10]. - The resignation of Ernst & Young as the company's auditor raised concerns about financial reporting and internal controls [10]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, Super Micro's positioning as an AI infrastructure supplier remains attractive, utilizing chips from Nvidia and AMD [12]. - Analysts express caution regarding the company's ability to regain growth momentum amid procurement cycles, competitive pressures, and macroeconomic uncertainties [15].

Financial Performance - Supermicro's Q3 FY25 revenue reached $4600 million, a 19% decrease QoQ but a 19% increase YoY[33] - The non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 FY25 was 9.7%, a decrease of 220 bps QoQ and 590 bps YoY[33] - Non-GAAP earnings per share for Q3 FY25 were $0.31, down $0.28 QoQ and $0.35 YoY[33] - Cash flow from operations in Q3 FY25 was $627 million[33] Revenue Breakdown - Server and storage systems contributed $4459 million to the Q3 FY25 revenue, a 19% decrease QoQ but a 21% increase YoY[33] - Subsystems and accessories generated $141 million in revenue, a 26% decrease QoQ and a 7% decrease YoY[33] Future Outlook - The company projects Q4 FY25 revenue to be between $5600 million and $6400 million[35] - Full year FY25 revenue is projected to be between $21800 million and $22600 million[35] - The outlook for Q4 of fiscal year 2025 GAAP diluted net income per common share includes approximately $63 million in expected stock-based compensation expense, net of the related tax effects of $18 million, which are excluded from non-GAAP diluted net income per common share[36] Strategic Initiatives - Supermicro is targeting over 30% of new data center deployments to use liquid cooling solutions in the next 12 months[10] - The company's manufacturing capacity is expanding, including a third campus in Silicon Valley, and new facilities in Mexico, Taiwan, and Malaysia[10, 32] - Supermicro's rack production capacity has reached 5,000 racks per month, including over 2,000 DLC racks[24]

Core Viewpoint - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) reported disappointing Q3 results for FY2025, with earnings per share of $0.31 and sales of $4.6 billion, falling short of market expectations [1][2] - The company anticipates Q4 sales between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, with earnings per share projected at $0.40 to $0.50, while analysts expected $6.59 billion in sales and $0.64 in earnings per share [1][2] Group 1 - The poor performance and forecasts have raised concerns among investors, attributed to customers delaying procurement plans [1] - CEO Charles Liang expressed confidence in achieving long-term goals despite short-term impacts from economic uncertainty and tariffs [1] - The gross margin for Q3 decreased by 220 basis points compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to increased inventory reserves from older products and costs associated with accelerating new product launches [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that some customers may delay purchases until Super Micro's products are equipped with NVIDIA's new Blackwell chips, with uncertainties related to tariffs and macroeconomic issues potentially impacting near-term demand [2] - Super Micro had previously been optimistic about long-term revenue, projecting sales of $40 billion for FY2026, nearly double the current fiscal year's expectations, driven by strong demand for AI servers [2] - The company faced risks of delisting due to late submission of its FY2024 annual report, with its auditor resigning over concerns about governance and transparency [2] Group 3 - Following the earnings report, Super Micro's stock fell by 5.7% in after-hours trading [3]

Group 1 - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) reported quarterly earnings of $0.31 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.30 per share, but down from $0.67 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 3.33% [1] - The company posted revenues of $4.6 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.13%, compared to $3.85 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Super Micro has outperformed the S&P 500, gaining about 5.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by 3.9% [3] Group 2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.61 on revenues of $6.69 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.28 on revenues of $23.16 billion [7] - The Computer-Storage Devices industry, to which Super Micro belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 7% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges ahead [8] - The estimate revisions trend for Super Micro is currently unfavorable, resulting in a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) for the stock, suggesting it may underperform the market in the near future [6]