Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969) saw a stock increase of over 5%, currently trading at 21.28 HKD with a transaction volume of 1.42 billion HKD, driven by positive outlooks on new tobacco products from British American Tobacco (BAT) [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, BAT reported revenue from new tobacco products at 1.651 billion GBP, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [1] - Adjusted gross profit for BAT reached 1.006 billion GBP, up 6.8%, with an adjusted gross margin of 59.5%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points [1] - Profit contribution from product categories was 179 million GBP, marking a significant increase of 39% [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - BAT anticipates accelerated growth in its new tobacco business in the second half of 2025, projecting a mid-single-digit revenue growth for the entire year [1] - Smoore International is viewed positively as a core supplier, benefiting from BAT's substantial resource and marketing investments in GloHilo, which has received favorable feedback from trials in Japan and early deployments in several European countries [1] - The overall performance of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products is stable, supported by the launch of GloHilo, which has increased its market share by 1.5 percentage points in Sendai [1] - The global HNB industry is entering a new product lifecycle phase, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, suggesting potential for accelerated industry expansion [1]

| 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06969 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 USD | | 100,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | 0 | | USD | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.01 USD | | 100,000,000 | FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 思摩爾國際控股有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2025年8月5日 I. 法定/註冊股 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The new tobacco products from British American Tobacco (BAT) contributed significantly to profits in the first half of 2025, with revenues of £1.651 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and an adjusted gross profit of £1.006 billion, up 6.8% [1] - BAT expects accelerated growth in its new tobacco business in the second half of 2025, projecting a mid-single-digit revenue growth for the full year [1] - The Glo Hilo product received positive feedback from its trial in Sendai, Japan, and there are plans for further promotion in Europe [2] - The heated tobacco segment saw a slight revenue increase of 0.8% in the first half of 2025, although market share declined due to increased competition [2] - The vaping segment faced challenges, with Vuse sales down 12.9% and revenues down 15.3% due to the proliferation of illegal products [3] - The oral tobacco segment, particularly Velo, experienced significant growth, with sales up 42.2% and revenues up 38.1% in the first half of 2025 [4] - The company is optimistic about the future growth of Glo Hilo and the oral tobacco segment, while the vaping segment may recover due to regulatory actions against illegal products [5] Financial Summary - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are £13.161 billion, £15.590 billion, and £18.633 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 11.55%, 18.45%, and 19.52% respectively [5] - Projected net profits for the same period are £1.311 billion, £2.040 billion, and £2.763 billion, with growth rates of 0.57%, 55.68%, and 35.40% respectively [5] - The current market capitalization is approximately HK$131.19 billion [6]

思摩尔国际(06969)一度跌超9%，截至发稿，跌5.94%，报19.94港元，成交额10.95亿港元。 消息面上，思摩尔国际核心客户英美烟草日前发布的2025半年报显示，受非法一次性电子烟冲击，其雾 化产品(Vuse)全球销量同比下滑12.9%，按恒定汇率计算的收入下降13.0%。此外，今年6月，英美烟草 与思摩尔国际合作的HNB新品glo Hilo在日本宫城县率先发售，烟具指导零售价3980日元。HNB新品glo Hilo和glo Hilo Plus将于9月1日起在日本全国销售。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised the target price for Smoore International (06969.HK) to HKD 14 while maintaining a "Sell" rating, citing a significant increase in revenue from ODM and HNB businesses, despite rising competition and associated costs [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 18% in the first half of the year, attributed to a recovery in the vape business and preemptive increases in shipment volumes ahead of U.S. tariffs [1] - UBS has updated its earnings forecasts for Smoore International for 2025 to 2027, with adjustments of -21%, +1%, and +21% respectively [1] Profit Outlook - The company is expected to see a year-on-year decline in net profit of 21% to 35% in the second half of the year, primarily due to high expenses related to stock options granted in the fourth quarter and S&D costs [1] Valuation - UBS maintains that Smoore International's valuation is rich and already reflects the growth potential from Vapes and HNB [1] - The target price has been increased from HKD 10.7 to HKD 14 [1]

Group 1 - The company forecasts a revenue of 6.013 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, while net profit is expected to be between 443 million and 541 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 21% to 35% year-on-year [1] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased non-cash expenses related to stock options and awards, higher distribution and sales expenses due to market expansion, and a significant rise in legal service costs [1] - Adjusted net profit, excluding non-cash stock-based payment expenses, is projected to be between 688 million and 787 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [1] Group 2 - The company's vaping business benefits from the global market's compliance development, with revenue growth driven by proprietary brand and enterprise customer business [1] - In the UK, a ban on disposable e-cigarettes has caused significant market disruption, leading to a shift in demand towards reusable e-cigarette products [1] - In the US, the FDA and CBP have intensified actions against illegal e-cigarettes, seizing over 135 million USD worth of products since 2023, which is expected to support the growth of the company's proprietary brand and enterprise customer business [1] Group 3 - British American Tobacco's Glo Hilo product, utilizing infrared quartz heating technology, is set for nationwide launch in Japan after successful trials, with a retail price of approximately 25 USD [2] - The company aims to revitalize market growth in Japan, which is a key strategic market for smoke-free products, as sales of smoke-free products have surpassed traditional cigarettes [2] - The HNB business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth starting in 2025, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 1.337 billion, 1.912 billion, and 2.760 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +2.57%, +43.01%, and +44.35% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5][14]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to benefit from the tightening global regulations on vaping products, particularly in the e-cigarette sector, and anticipates significant growth in its Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) business [2][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.013 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client businesses [2][4]. - The decline in net profit, projected between 443 million to 541 million yuan, is attributed to increased non-cash expenses related to stock options and a rise in marketing and legal costs [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue of 60.13 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year, while net profit is projected to decline by 21% to 35% [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit, excluding non-cash stock-based payments, is estimated to be between 688 million to 787 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [1]. Market Dynamics - The UK market is undergoing significant changes due to a ban on disposable e-cigarettes, which is expected to shift consumer demand towards reusable products [2]. - In the US, regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes have intensified, with over 135 million USD worth of illegal products seized since 2023, indicating a tightening market environment [2]. Growth Opportunities - The HNB business is anticipated to become a significant growth driver starting in 2026, contributing notably to revenue and profit [4]. - The company is enhancing its market presence, particularly in overseas markets, which is expected to sustain growth in its proprietary brand and enterprise client segments [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a revenue of 6.013 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing an 18% year-over-year increase, while net profit is expected to decline by 21% to 35% year-over-year, primarily due to increased non-cash share payments and rising operational costs associated with brand expansion and legal services [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The company’s revenue growth in H1 2025 is attributed to strengthened enforcement and regulatory policies in the U.S. and parts of Europe, leading to good growth in both its proprietary brand and ToB businesses [1] - The adjusted net profit for H1 2025 is projected to be between 688 million and 787 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year change of -9% to +4% [1] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The U.S. FDA and state governments have intensified enforcement against non-compliant electronic vapor products, which has positively impacted the sales of compliant products [2] - In Europe, regulations on disposable e-cigarettes have tightened, with bans in the UK and New Zealand taking effect, which is expected to shift consumer demand towards compliant products [2] Group 3: New Business Development - The Glo Hilo product, launched in Japan, has shown improved performance compared to its Serbian counterpart, with enhanced heating efficiency and a wider variety of flavor options [3] - The product is set to be rolled out nationwide in Japan, which is anticipated to benefit the company as a product innovator and supply chain partner [3] Group 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.323 billion, 2.140 billion, and 2.762 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.21, 0.35, and 0.45 yuan [3] - A target price of 25.00 HKD is set, reflecting a valuation premium due to high competitive barriers in the HNB new business and the steady recovery of the vapor main business [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in its performance due to the favorable regulatory environment for vaping products and the growth of its heated non-combustible tobacco (HNB) business [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 6.013 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [1]. - The projected net profit for 2025H1 is between 443 million and 541 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decline of 21% to 35%, with a midpoint decrease of 28% [1]. - Adjusted net profit, excluding stock incentive expenses, is expected to be between 688 million and 787 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9% to +4%, with a midpoint of -2.5% [1][2]. Business Analysis - The company’s vaping business is benefiting from increased enforcement against illegal products in the U.S., with the FDA and customs seizing nearly 34 million USD worth of illegal e-cigarettes [1]. - The U.S. Senate has approved a 200 million USD budget for the FDA to combat illegal vaping products, indicating a positive regulatory trend for the compliant market [1]. - In Europe, the UK has banned disposable e-cigarettes, leading to a potential increase in sales of refillable products, which the company is well-positioned to capitalize on [1]. - The HNB product Glo hilo is currently in pilot sales in Serbia and Sendai, Japan, and is expected to contribute positively in the future [1]. Profitability Outlook - The company’s profitability is expected to improve due to a higher proportion of high-margin vaping products and the ongoing development of the HNB business [2]. - The adjusted profit margin is anticipated to show improvement, driven by the enhanced product mix in the vaping segment [2]. - The company is positioned uniquely in the market as the only listed entity deeply integrated into the supply chain of major overseas tobacco groups, which provides a competitive edge [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.21, 0.42, and 0.58 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 94, 48, and 34 times [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 60.13 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 18.3% year-on-year increase. However, the total comprehensive income is projected to be between 4.51 billion and 5.51 billion yuan, indicating a decline of 23.9% to 37.8% year-on-year, with a median estimate of 5.01 billion yuan, which is a 30.8% decrease [1] - The company anticipates maintaining double-digit revenue growth in Q2 2025, although profits are under pressure due to increased share-based payment expenses of 176 million yuan and a rise in sales and management expense ratios [1] - The company is actively responding to market changes, with expectations for stable growth despite regulatory pressures on traditional disposable products. The company is focusing on expanding its compliance product offerings and enhancing its self-owned brand overseas [2] - The HILO product is performing well, with an accelerated expansion in the Japanese market, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's HNB growth [2] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 12.1 billion, 20.3 billion, and 30.0 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 99.4X, 59.3X, and 40.3X [2] Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 11.799 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6%. For 2025, the revenue is expected to be 12.011 billion yuan, reflecting a 2% growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.303 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 1.213 billion yuan in 2025, before rising to 2.034 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.995 billion yuan in 2027 [4][6] - The company's operating income is expected to grow from 11.799 billion yuan in 2024 to 17.063 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22.57% [4][6] - The company's cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 1.753 billion yuan in 2024, decreasing to 942 million yuan in 2025, and then increasing to 3.084 billion yuan by 2027 [7]