报告提到，虽然思摩尔国际第三季收入较市场预期高至少10%，但盈利胜市场预期的幅度则较小。关键 正面因素在于加热烟业务开始好转，且增长动能不仅来自单一客户英美烟草(British American Tobacco)。尽管盈利能见度仍然有限，集团核心业务改善的趋势，应有助其股价回稳。 大和发布研报称，思摩尔国际(06969)第三季总收入同比增长27%至42亿元人民币，创历史新高，并是自 2021年以来最大升幅。该行将思摩尔国际2025至27年每股盈利预测下调6%至20%，预期利润率恢复步 伐会较缓慢;重申"跑赢大市"评级，目标价由16港元微升至17港元。管理层首次作出指引，料全年加热 烟(HNB)业务将贡献至少12亿元人民币收入，该行估算相当于约8%销售额。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that Smoore International (06969) achieved a record high total revenue of 4.2 billion RMB in Q3, representing a year-on-year growth of 27%, the largest increase since 2021 [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue exceeded market expectations by at least 10%, although the profit beat was modest [1] - The company's management provided guidance indicating that the heated tobacco (HNB) business is expected to contribute at least 1.2 billion RMB in revenue for the year, which is approximately 8% of total sales [1] Market Outlook - Daiwa has lowered its earnings per share forecast for Smoore International for 2025 to 2027 by 6% to 20%, anticipating a slower recovery in profit margins [1] - Despite limited visibility on profitability, the trend of improvement in the core business is expected to support a stabilization in the company's stock price [1] Investment Rating - Daiwa maintains an "Outperform" rating on Smoore International, with a slight increase in the target price from 16 HKD to 17 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's research report indicates that Smoore International's total revenue for Q3 increased by 27% year-on-year to HKD 4.2 billion, marking a historical high and the largest increase since 2021 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The management provided guidance for the first time, expecting the heated tobacco (HNB) business to contribute at least HKD 1.2 billion in revenue for the full year, which is approximately 8% of total sales [1] - The key positive factor is the improvement in the HNB business, with growth momentum not solely reliant on a single client, British American Tobacco [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Despite limited visibility on profitability, the trend of improvement in the core business is expected to help stabilize the company's stock price [1] - Daiwa has revised its earnings per share forecast for Smoore International for 2025 to 2027 down by 6% to 20%, anticipating a slower recovery in profit margins [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Daiwa maintains a "Outperform" rating for Smoore International, with a slight increase in the target price from HKD 16 to HKD 17 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant revenue increase in Q3 2025, driven by the HNB and vaping business, despite a decline in net profit due to initial low-margin sales and ongoing investments in R&D [1][2] Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, with net profit of 809 million yuan, down 23.8% [1] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 4.197 billion yuan, up 27.2% year-on-year, while net profit was 317 million yuan, a decrease of 16.4% [1] Business Analysis - The HNB business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, with the HNB product "hilo" launched in Japan and Poland, leading to strong sales [1] - The vaping business is projected to see double-digit growth in Q3 2025, benefiting from regulatory changes in Europe and increased enforcement against illegal products in the U.S. [1] - The company is focusing on brand development and market expansion, with a steady increase in market share for its own brands [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 4.0% to 444 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.6% [1] Growth Outlook - The expansion of the legal vaping market in Europe and the U.S. is expected to continue, with the HNB product "glo hilo" gaining traction in Poland [2] - The company is positioned uniquely in the market as a supplier in both vaping and HNB categories, indicating a strong growth potential [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS of 0.22, 0.39, and 0.59 yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 67, 37, and 25 times [2]

Group 1 - The company reported Q3 2025 financial data, with revenue of 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, and adjusted profit of 444 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - HNB is expected to become a major growth driver, with significant revenue increase anticipated due to the pre-production nature and the full rollout of hilo in Japan, leading to substantial sequential growth in sales [1] - The ODM+ strategy has been further validated, with satisfactory growth from new product iterations, and overall growth expected to exceed double digits as new compliant products are launched [1] Group 2 - Emerging businesses are expected to elevate the company's valuation, with the subsidiary successfully submitting an ANDA for Breo Ellipta, which is used for asthma and COPD treatment, indicating potential for further valuation uplift [1] - The company anticipates that HNB will become a primary source of profit release by 2026, with traditional vaping business valuation solidifying [2] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.2 billion, 16.9 billion, and 19.5 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.395 billion, 1.898 billion, and 2.368 billion yuan, leading to PE ratios of 64.53x, 47.44x, and 38.02x respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Summary of Smoore International's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Smoore International - **Industry**: Electronic smoking devices and related products Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **Q3 Revenue Growth**: Smoore International reported a 27.5% increase in revenue for Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations, with adjusted profit rising by 4.8% quarter-over-quarter [2][3] - **HNB Product Sales**: The strong performance was driven by robust sales of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products, with expectations of at least 1.2 billion RMB in annual revenue from HNB [3][4] - **Traditional Vaping Products**: The traditional vaping segment also saw significant growth, particularly in Europe, due to the introduction of new products following a ban on disposable e-cigarettes [2][3] Market Dynamics - **European Market**: The European market outperformed overall company growth, driven by regulatory changes and the introduction of new products [2][5] - **U.S. Market Recovery**: The U.S. market is recovering more slowly, but stricter regulations on compliant products are creating opportunities for Smoore's partners, such as British American Tobacco's VUSE brand [5] Strategic Initiatives - **Expansion of HNB Markets**: Smoore is entering more core markets for HNB products, including Poland and Italy, aiming to transition from the initial development phase to a more expansive growth phase [7] - **Collaboration with British American Tobacco**: The partnership with British American Tobacco is seen as a significant growth opportunity, enhancing Smoore's product offerings and market reach [4][10] Product Development - **Medical Nebulization**: Smoore is investing heavily in the medical nebulization sector, with expectations to generate revenue starting in 2026. The company has submitted multiple products for FDA approval [4][11] - **Free Brand WAPER**: The company is increasing market share for its free brand WAPER through enhanced channel coverage and localized operations, despite limited elasticity in this segment [6] Future Outlook - **Profitability Expectations**: While current profits are not exceptionally high, Smoore anticipates improved profitability from 2026 onwards, driven by regulatory changes and market share expansion [9] - **Valuation and Market Potential**: Following recent stock price adjustments, Smoore's valuation is seen as attractive, with a static P/E ratio of 58x for 2025, expected to drop to 39x in 2026 and 29x in 2027, indicating significant future earnings potential [12] Long-term Growth Areas - **Beauty Nebulization**: The beauty nebulization segment is part of Smoore's long-term strategy, expected to follow the medical nebulization developments, with promising growth potential [13] New Business Contributions - **Initial Profit Contributions**: New business segments are expected to have limited profit contributions initially, which is typical for early-stage promotions. The focus is on market share, with profitability expected to improve as sales volumes increase in subsequent years [14] Additional Important Insights - **Production Capacity**: Smoore has automated production capabilities for 2 million devices and plans to increase this to over 5 million, with monthly production of 2 million cartridges [10] - **Market Positioning**: Smoore positions itself as a technology platform, providing differentiated solutions to various tobacco companies, not just British American Tobacco [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue and profit increase in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 4.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 27.5%, and adjusted profit of 444 million yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [7] - The HNB (Heat Not Burn) segment is expected to become a major growth driver, with substantial sales growth anticipated in Japan and Europe [7] - The ODM+ strategy has shown satisfactory growth due to successful product iterations, with overall growth expected to exceed double digits [7] - The valuation of the company is expected to rise with the introduction of new compliant products and the recent FDA acceptance of a generic drug application for Breo® Ellipta® [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 14.2 billion, 16.9 billion, and 19.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.395 billion, 1.898 billion, and 2.368 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 11,168 million yuan in 2023, 11,799 million yuan in 2024, 14,200 million yuan in 2025, 16,900 million yuan in 2026, and 19,500 million yuan in 2027, with a revenue growth rate of 20.35% in 2025 [6][8] - The net profit forecast shows a decline in 2024 to 1,303 million yuan, followed by a recovery to 1,395 million yuan in 2025, and further growth to 1,898 million yuan in 2026 and 2,368 million yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The company's EPS is projected to be 0.23 yuan in 2025, 0.31 yuan in 2026, and 0.38 yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 64.53x, 47.44x, and 38.02x [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.21 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.8%. However, net profit decreased by 23.8% to 809 million yuan, while adjusted net profit remained stable with a slight increase of 0.1% to 1.182 billion yuan [2][3]. - The HNB (Heated Not Burned) business is expected to significantly contribute to revenue, with the launch of the hilo product in Japan and Poland driving sales growth. The company anticipates double-digit growth in its vaping business, benefiting from regulatory changes in Europe and the U.S. [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 4.0% to 444 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 10.6%, slightly down from 11.5% in Q3 2024. Despite the decline in profit margin, the overall performance remains strong, with future profit elasticity expected due to the anticipated growth in HNB product sales and ongoing investments in medical vaping [3]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts EPS (Earnings Per Share) of 0.22, 0.39, and 0.59 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 67, 37, and 25 times [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 14.382 billion, 17.486 billion, and 20.589 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.9%, 21.6%, and 17.7% respectively. Net profit is expected to recover, with growth rates of 3.0%, 78.1%, and 52.2% for the same period [9].

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International (06969.HK) experienced significant stock price volatility following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report, which showed mixed results with high revenue growth but declining net profits [2][3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Smoore International reported revenue of approximately 4.197 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.5% [3]. - The company's net profit for the same period was approximately 316.9 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 16.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7% [3]. - Adjusted profit for Q3 was 444.2 million RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.8% [3]. Business Segments - Smoore International operates primarily in two business segments: 1. Business-to-Business (B2B) services, providing electronic vaporization devices and HNB (Heated Not Burn) solutions to global tobacco giants 2. Research, design, manufacturing, and sales of proprietary electronic vaporization products and vaporization beauty products [4]. Revenue Drivers - The revenue growth was attributed to the strong performance of the B2B segment and the proprietary brand business, with significant increases in product shipments and successful launches of new compliant electronic vaporization products [5]. - The proprietary brand business also saw healthy growth due to successful product iterations and increased marketing efforts tailored to local markets [5]. Profitability Challenges - Despite strong revenue growth, Smoore International faces significant pressure on profitability due to rising costs associated with global market expansion, compliance, R&D, and marketing [5]. - Analysts remain cautious about the company's future profit outlook, with expectations of a 40% decline in net profit year-on-year for 2025, despite a projected 20% revenue growth driven by electronic cigarette sales [6].

Core Insights - The company reported a record high revenue of 4.197 billion RMB for the third quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.2% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 27.5% [1] - Adjusted profit for the period was 444 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 4.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 4.8% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by an increase in revenue and gross profit, with the growth rates of distribution, sales, administrative, and R&D expenses being lower than the revenue growth rate after excluding share-based payment expenses [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 reached 4.197 billion RMB, marking a historical high for a single quarter [1] - Year-on-year revenue growth was 27.2%, while quarter-on-quarter growth was 27.5% [1] - Adjusted profit for the period was 444 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 4.0% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of about 4.8% [1] Expense Management - The increase in revenue and gross profit was complemented by a lower growth rate in distribution, sales, administrative, and R&D expenses compared to revenue growth after excluding share-based payment expenses [1] - Other income and gains also contributed to the overall financial performance during the period [1]