Group 1 - The author expresses skepticism towards Chinese ADRs, citing concerns over governance and capital allocation standards in Chinese companies [1] - The author has a background in banking and finance, with over five years of experience as an equities analyst, focusing on growth and income stocks [1] - The investment group mentioned aims to provide actionable trading ideas across various asset classes, sectors, and industries, catering to both active and less active investors [1]

For those looking to find strong Computer and Technology stocks, it is prudent to search for companies in the group that are outperforming their peers. Tencent Holding Ltd. (TCEHY) is a stock that can certainly grab the attention of many investors, but do its recent returns compare favorably to the sector as a whole? A quick glance at the company's year-to-date performance in comparison to the rest of the Computer and Technology sector should help us answer this question.Tencent Holding Ltd. is a member of ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) with a target price range of 473 63-526 25 HKD [1][3] Core Views - The report highlights the potential financial and business impact of Taobao's full integration with WeChat Pay, estimating significant revenue growth for WeChat Pay [1][8] - The integration is expected to bring in billions of RMB annually, with a potential revenue increase of 1%-4% for Tencent's FinTech and Business Services (FTB) segment by FY25 [1][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of data flow from e-commerce transactions, which could help Tencent improve its e-commerce capabilities, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce on WeChat Channels [1][21] Financial Impact Analysis - The report estimates that Taobao's integration with WeChat Pay could generate 4 2-25 0 billion RMB annually, depending on the penetration rate and fee structure [1][16] - Under conservative, neutral, and optimistic scenarios, the revenue impact is projected at 4 2, 8 3, and 25 0 billion RMB respectively for every 5% penetration rate [1][16] - The report forecasts that Tencent's FTB business will maintain a "low growth + gradual gross margin improvement" state due to changes in revenue structure and increased usage of WeChat Pay's "zero balance" payments [1][22] Business Impact Analysis - The integration is expected to enhance Tencent's e-commerce data capabilities, particularly in live-streaming e-commerce, which saw a 3x growth in GMV in 2023 compared to 2022 [1][21] - The report notes that WeChat Pay's data flow could help Tencent build a more robust e-commerce ecosystem, especially in areas where it has been historically weak [1][21] Financial Projections - The report projects Tencent's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 6655, 7257, and 7840 billion RMB, with year-over-year growth rates of 9%, 9%, and 8% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to be 2197, 2464, and 2742 billion RMB for 2024-2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 39%, 12%, and 11% respectively [1] - Non-IFRS EPS is projected to be 23 94, 27 55, and 31 44 RMB for 2024-2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 44%, 15%, and 14% respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings (00700) is "Buy" with a target price of 476 HKD, maintaining the rating [1]. Core Views - The acceleration of AI business implementation and the trend of platform interconnectivity are expected to create new growth points for the company [1]. - Tencent's new generation model "Tencent Mix Yuan Turbo" has shown significant performance improvements, with training efficiency up by 108%, inference efficiency up by 100%, and inference costs down by 50% compared to previous models [1]. - The company has integrated its AI infrastructure under the brand "Tencent Cloud Intelligence," which has already served 90% of domestic large model vendors [1]. - The gaming revenue is expected to continue to increase quarter-on-quarter in the second half of the year, supported by the launch of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current Price: 387.6 HKD - Target Price: 476 HKD - 6-Month Rating: Buy (Maintain Rating) [1]. Company Performance - Tencent's total shares outstanding: 9,342.57 million shares - Total market capitalization: 3,621,180.68 million HKD - Net asset value per share: 100.81 HKD - Debt-to-asset ratio: 43.95% [1]. AI Business Development - The new model "Tencent Mix Yuan Turbo" has achieved the highest score in domestic large model evaluations, outperforming competitors like GPT-4o [1]. - The company has nearly 700 internal business units utilizing the Mix Yuan model, with API calls reaching approximately 300 million [1]. Gaming Sector Insights - The new game "Delta Action" is set to launch on September 26, which may enhance Tencent's market position in the shooting game category [1]. - The performance of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" has been strong, consistently ranking high in the iOS game sales charts since its launch [1]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in gaming revenue in the second half of the year, with a focus on the operational rhythm of "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" [1]. - As of September 23, 2024, the company's stock is projected to have a PE ratio of 16x/13x/12x for the years 2024/2025/2026, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages [1].

China just unveiled a major stimulus plan to turn around its stagnating economy. Will it be enough?Shares of Chinese consumer tech stocks Tencent (TCEHY 6.36%), Tencent Music Entertainment (TME 16.41%), and iQiyi (IQ 12.15%) were rallying on Tuesday, up 6.5%, 15.7%, and 11.7%, respectively, as of 1:15 p.m. ET.On Tuesday, the Chinese government and central bank unveiled the country's biggest stimulus measures since the pandemic. Chinese stocks have been trading cheaply as the country has been experiencing ec ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Tencent Holdings (00700 HK) with a "Recommend" rating [3] Core Views - Tencent is an absolute leader in the internet industry with diversified shareholder return methods The company plans to double its share buyback scale to over HKD 100 billion in 2024 [2] - The company's high-quality endogenous growth momentum has recovered with high-margin businesses accounting for a larger proportion In Q2 2024 Tencent achieved total revenue of RMB 1611 billion up 8% YoY with gross profit of RMB 859 billion up 213% YoY and gross margin of 533% up 58 percentage points YoY [2] - Tencent's game business is improving and the commercialization space for Video Accounts is vast Key drivers include the recovery of flagship games strong performance of new games and the rapid growth of Video Account advertising revenue [3] Financial Analysis Revenue - In 2023 Tencent's revenue reached RMB 6090 billion up 98% YoY with financial technology and enterprise services and game businesses contributing the most [20] - In Q2 2024 Tencent's domestic game revenue was RMB 346 billion up 9% YoY while overseas game revenue was RMB 139 billion up 9% YoY [22] Profitability - Tencent's gross profit in 2023 was RMB 293109 billion up 228% YoY with gross margin increasing from 431% in 2022 to 481% in 2023 [24] - In Q2 2024 Tencent's Non-IFRS net profit was RMB 573 billion up 526% YoY with a Non-IFRS net margin of 356% up 104 percentage points YoY [2] Business Highlights Games - Domestic games are recovering with flagship games like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" showing positive growth in Q2 2024 [32] - Overseas games are performing well with "PUBG MOBILE" and "NIKKE" showing strong growth Supercell's games are also contributing significantly to overseas revenue [39][41] Video Accounts - Video Account advertising revenue grew over 80% YoY in Q2 2024 driven by increased user engagement and live streaming e-commerce [52] - The commercialization potential of Video Accounts is vast with further growth expected from increased ad load rates and user engagement [54] Financial Technology - Tencent's financial technology business saw slower growth in Q2 2024 with payment transaction volume stabilizing and wealth management revenue growing double-digit YoY [3] - The company is focusing on improving payment penetration and convenience with initiatives like "foreign card binding" and "Hong Kong wallet expansion" [64] Social Networks - Social network revenue in Q2 2024 was RMB 303 billion up 2% YoY driven by growth in music and video subscription revenue as well as mini-game platform service fees [46] - Mini-games on WeChat have shown strong growth with MAU exceeding 500 million and high user retention rates [48] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts Tencent's revenue for 2024 2025 and 2026 to be RMB 6607 billion RMB 7214 billion and RMB 7819 billion respectively with Non-IFRS net profit of RMB 2159 billion RMB 2421 billion and RMB 2588 billion respectively [3] - Based on the closing price on September 23 2024 the adjusted PE ratios for 2024 2025 and 2026 are 15X 14X and 13X respectively [3]

腾讯控股（00700.HK）首次覆盖报告：深度系列（一） [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 游戏业务进入复苏通道，视频号力争增量空间 2024 年 09 月 24 日 ➢ 互联网行业绝对龙头，股东回报方式多样化：腾讯向全球用户提供全方位的 互动娱乐产品和服务，在即时通信、社交、游戏、数字内容等领域具备行业龙头 优势，并拥有多元的增值服务变现模式。为应对大股东长期减持计划，2024 年 公司计划回购规模有望翻倍至 1000 亿港元以上，截至 2024 年 9 月 23 日，公 司累计回购金额达 864 亿港元。近年来，公司提供股票分红、现金分红等多样化 的股东回报以提振市场信心。 ➢ 内生高质量增长动能恢复，高毛利业务占比提升：收入端，24Q2，公司实 现总收入 1611 亿元，同比+8%。其中，本土游戏/海外游戏/社交网络/网络广告 / 金 科 及 企 服 业 务 收 入 分别为 346/139/303/299/504 亿元，分别 同 比 +9%/+9%/+2%/+19%/+4%。利润端，24Q2 毛利润 859 亿元，同比+21.3%， 毛利率 53.3%，同比+5.8pct。毛利率的改善 ...

Group 1: Market Reaction to Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve's 50-basis-point interest rate cut has led investors to speculate that China's central bank may also reduce rates soon [1] - Chinese stocks, including Tencent Holdings and PDD Holdings, saw significant increases in share prices following the Fed's announcement, with Tencent up approximately 3.3% and Futu Holdings up nearly 15% [1][4] Group 2: Economic Challenges in China - The Shanghai Composite Index has declined nearly 8% year-to-date, indicating a stark contrast to U.S. stock performance [2] - China's economy is facing challenges such as high unemployment and a downturn in the housing market, with slower-than-expected growth in retail sales, industrial production, and urban investment in August [2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investors believe that without substantial fiscal and monetary stimulus, it will be challenging for Chinese equities to outperform for the remainder of the year [3] - Notable investors like David Tepper and Michael Burry continue to hold significant positions in Chinese stocks, indicating a belief in potential recovery despite current economic struggles [3] Group 4: Company-Specific Performance - Tencent has repurchased nearly $7.7 billion of its shares since May, demonstrating strong performance, while Futu has successfully expanded its client base [4] - PDD Holdings has faced challenges similar to other e-commerce retailers, with management warning of shifts in consumer demand [4] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investing in a diversified basket of Chinese equities through exchange-traded funds or mutual funds is suggested as a way to mitigate regulatory risks while participating in potential economic recovery [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of 486 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current closing price of 373.40 HKD [4]. Core Insights - Tencent is enhancing its product matrix, focusing on large model capabilities and accelerating their application in various scenarios. The company has upgraded its large model to "Hunyuan Turbo," which improves inference efficiency and decoding speed by 100% and 20%, respectively, at half the cost of the previous generation [1]. - Tencent Cloud has surpassed 11,000 ecosystem partners and serves over 2 million customers, demonstrating healthy and sustainable business growth. The number of partners with orders exceeding one million has also seen double-digit growth [1]. - The company is expanding its international digital solutions, helping businesses iterate commercially in their global strategies. For instance, ultra-low latency live streaming has improved interaction and transaction rates for e-commerce platforms [1][2]. Summary by Sections Product Development - Tencent has launched several new products, including the Tencent Cloud Intelligent Computing brand, which boasts superior performance and stability, with a daily failure rate one-third of the industry average. The training startup time is reduced to just one day [1]. - The introduction of the RAG solution allows for quick AI application development with minimal coding, supporting multi-modal retrieval and achieving double the industry average performance [1]. International Expansion - Tencent Cloud has accumulated over 10,000 overseas clients, with international business maintaining double-digit growth over the past three years. Notable clients include Meituan's Hong Kong delivery platform and the live streaming app JACO in Saudi Arabia [2]. - The report highlights Tencent's ability to enhance user experience and retention through improved server access speeds and upgraded product capabilities for international meetings, which have seen a nearly 50% increase in overseas meeting numbers since the beginning of the year [1][2].

Singapore Kicks Off the First Stop of TME's Music Journey to the WorldSHENZHEN, China, Sept. 12, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- On September 11, 2024, Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) announced the launch of its Global Music Outreach Initiative, which will bring together talented Chinese music artists and their works to be showcased on prominent stages worldwide. The initiative will kickstart in Singapore from September 13 to 17, beginning a broader series of music and industry exchange activities around the w ...