Group 1 - UBS Group increased its stake in Ping An Insurance's H-shares from 8.83% to 9.39% as of January 23 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, marking the first pause in its easing cycle after three consecutive rate cuts since mid-2025. However, two members of the Federal Reserve Board expressed dissent, advocating for further rate cuts [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate cuts aligns with Chairman Powell's previous indication that the threshold for future cuts would be raised [1]. - The FOMC statement retained guidance on "additional adjustments," suggesting that the easing cycle is not over, but removed the phrase regarding "increased risks to employment" [1]. - Powell's comments reflected a more optimistic view of the labor market, indicating that current policy is in a "reasonable neutral estimate range" [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Powell's outlook on economic growth and the labor market has become notably more positive, citing signs of stability in labor market data despite ongoing economic cooling [1]. - UBS maintains its expectation for one more rate cut in Q1 2026, but notes that the likelihood of a delay until summer is increasing, contingent on the labor market's performance and inflation trends [1]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations suggest that the next rate cut may occur after Powell's term ends in July, with two FOMC meetings remaining during his tenure [2]. - Uncertainty surrounds the timeline for the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair, as a key Republican senator has indicated a pause on nominations until the conclusion of a Justice Department investigation [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian stock market is experiencing its worst two-day performance in 30 years, driven by concerns raised by MSCI regarding the market's investability and potential outflows of up to $13 billion [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On January 29, the Jakarta Composite Index fell by as much as 10%, triggering a 30-minute trading halt, following a previous drop of over 8% on January 28, which also led to a trading suspension [3][4]. - The significant sell-off has primarily affected state-owned banks and companies linked to large corporate groups, raising the risk of a technical bear market if the downward trend continues [3][4]. MSCI Concerns - MSCI has expressed serious concerns about the low free float of stocks in the Indonesian market, with over 200 components having a free float ratio below 15%, which distorts the index and poses manipulation risks [4][5]. - MSCI has announced a suspension of certain index adjustments and will freeze the addition of new constituents until issues related to concentrated ownership are addressed by Indonesian regulators [3][4]. Currency Impact - The Indonesian rupiah has depreciated against the US dollar, recording its largest drop since October of the previous year, as investor confidence wanes [5][6]. Analyst Ratings - Both Goldman Sachs and UBS have downgraded their ratings for the Jakarta Composite Index, with Goldman Sachs warning of potential outflows exceeding $13 billion under extreme scenarios [5][6]. Regulatory Response - The Indonesian Stock Exchange has acknowledged MSCI's feedback and is committed to enhancing market data transparency, with plans to publicly disclose free float data starting January 2, 2026 [6][7]. - The exchange aims to raise the minimum free float requirement from the current 7.5% to between 10% and 15%, with a long-term goal of 25%, although no specific timeline has been set [6][7]. Future Considerations - The Indonesian financial regulatory authority is preparing stricter rules for small business listings, while the stock exchange emphasizes the need for increased liquidity to absorb new stock supply [7].

Better late than never. UBS will reportedly allow certain clients to trade bitcoin and Ether in the near future, although the banking behemoth is still determining how the program will be rolled out, according to a Bloomberg report last week. The Zurich-based firm would join the likes of JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, which have both opened up access to crypto for clients in recent years. The move also signals the bank’s willingness to continue building on its tokenization programs. “We have seen that mor ...

瑞银在周三发布的一份报告中重申对标普500指数7700点的目标位，认为强劲的宏观背景将提振美国股 市。瑞银首席投资官兼全球股票主管Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi在报告中写道，这一判断部分基于美联 储未来仍将继续降息，尽管美联储预计将在今日的宽松周期中按下暂停键。他写道："我们认为，美联 储在未来几个月仍有进一步放松政策的空间，随着美国劳动力市场走弱的更多证据出现、且通胀保持受 控，美联储可能得以进一步降息。" ...

Investors rushing to protect their U.S. assets against dollar depreciation could test banks' ability to meet demand for hedging, said a senior trader at UBS , one of the world's top currency dealers. ...

Group 1 - Truist Financial Corporation announced that Chief Consumer and Small Business Banking Officer Dontá Wilson will speak at the UBS Financial Services Conference on February 10, 2026, at 12:10 p.m. ET [1] - Chief Financial Officer Mike Maguire will speak at the BofA Securities Financial Services Conference on February 11, 2026, at 10:30 a.m. ET [1] - A live audio webcast of the conferences will be available on the day of the events, with a replay accessible for 30 days [2] Group 2 - Truist Financial Corporation is a purpose-driven financial services company headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, with total assets of $548 billion as of December 31, 2025 [3] - The company has a leading market share in many high-growth markets in the U.S. and offers a wide range of financial products and services [3] - Truist is recognized as a top-10 commercial bank, providing services including consumer and small business banking, commercial and corporate banking, investment banking, and wealth management [3]

Core Insights - A major winter storm in the United States is projected to result in billions of dollars in insured losses according to analysts at brokerage UBS [1] Group 1 - The storm's impact is significant enough to prompt analysts to assess the financial implications for the insurance industry [1]

Group 1 - Copper prices have entered a consolidation phase after a strong rebound, with prices around $13,000 per ton showing weakened upward momentum due to high prices suppressing demand in China and rising inventories adding short-term pressure [2] - Recent price increases have been driven by concerns over potential U.S. copper tariffs and ongoing supply disruptions, which are expected to support prices throughout the year [2] - UBS reports that the market conditions in major consuming countries are weak, with unrefined copper imports in 2025 expected to drop to a multi-year low, down 6.1% from the previous year, as rising prices dampen purchasing interest [2] Group 2 - Following recent adjustments, a recovery in Chinese demand post-holidays, along with anticipated stimulus measures, is expected to support copper prices [3] - Supply constraints remain a key factor for a bullish long-term outlook, with Chile facing declining ore grades and operational challenges, while Peru struggles to increase production [3] - UBS forecasts a supply gap of approximately 407,000 tons in the copper market by 2026, which may lead to declining inventories and push copper prices towards $14,000 per ton or higher [3] Group 3 - China's copper industry faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [4]

Group 1 - Jed Finn, Head of Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley, will speak at the UBS Financial Services Conference on February 10, 2026, at 3:30 p.m. (ET) [1] - Morgan Stanley is a leading global financial services firm providing a wide range of investment banking, securities, wealth management, and investment management services, with offices in 42 countries [1] - Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (NYSE: MSDL) will release its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, on February 26, 2026, after market close [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has been ranked the 1 Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) provider in the United States with $246.9 billion in U.S. OCIO AUM, according to Chestnut Solutions Institute's inaugural OCIO Market Leader Awards [1] - The distinction recognizes Morgan Stanley's industry-leading scale, capabilities, and commitment to delivering high-quality investment solutions to institutional clients [1] - The accompanying report from the Institute indicates an increase in OCIO AUM in 2025 [1]