Ernest HoffmanErnest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX. He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in ...

Group 1: Chinese AI and Technology Sector - The Chinese AI sector is experiencing strong growth, and UBS remains optimistic about the performance of Chinese tech stocks in the second half of the year [1] - The ongoing tariff war presents an uncertain outlook, leading to a cautious stance from China regarding large-scale fiscal stimulus measures, although there is still room for interest rate reductions [1] - Over-competition is identified as a major pain point for investors in China, with many companies engaging in irrational price wars, resulting in Chinese tech companies being valued at only half of their U.S. counterparts [1] Group 2: Government Policies and Market Dynamics - The Chinese government is committed to combating "involution" and has signaled strong policy intentions to regulate low-price disorderly competition, encouraging companies to enhance product quality and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities [1] - The ultimate winners in this competitive landscape are expected to possess global competitiveness [1] Group 3: Diversification Trends in Investment - There is a noticeable trend among clients shifting from U.S. assets to more diversified investments, with strong growth observed in Asian and European assets [2] - The volatility in the U.S. market serves as a reminder of the importance of diversification during periods of high uncertainty [2] - UBS plans to maintain U.S. asset allocation between 50% to 66%, with emerging markets in Asia, led by China, being a key focus for diversification [2] Group 4: Currency Outlook - Progress in trade negotiations and improved capital flows support the potential for further appreciation of the Renminbi, with expectations for the exchange rate to reach 1 USD to 7 CNY by mid-next year [2]

人事变动 - UBS Group 日本全球市场联席主管 Naohiro Kuroda 离职 [1] 业务影响 - 此次离职发生在结构性投资业务团队扩张几个月后 [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of UBS Group stated that the deal pipeline remains very strong and healthy [1] - The IPO pipeline is in place, indicating readiness for market activity [1] - The market and companies are currently in a wait-and-see mode, suggesting a cautious approach to new investments [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of UBS Group expressed support for the simplification of regulatory measures in the United States [1] - In contrast, UBS is moving in the opposite direction regarding regulations in Switzerland [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of UBS Group emphasized that uncertainty is worse than any specific issue, such as tariffs [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a broader concern in the financial industry regarding the impact of uncertainty on market stability and investment decisions [1]

Group 1 - The CEO of UBS Group highlighted significant opportunities in the U.S. wealth management sector [1]

金十数据7月9日讯，瑞银策略师在一份报告中表示，该行已在10年期美债收益率达到4.40%时平仓了原 有的做多头寸，但预计未来收益率进一步上升后将重新入场。瑞银最初于5月底建立该头寸，当时10年 期美债收益率为4.51%。随后，在上周非农就业数据发布前，该行将止损位收窄至4.40%。报告指出： 我们认为未来可能会出现更合适的时机再次做多美债久期，但市场需要更清楚地理解美国就业市场的走 势、"大而美"法案的影响，以及在没有美元走强的情况下更高关税对债市的冲击。 美国10年国债收益率 瑞银：已平仓美债多头头寸，静待更高收益率再入场 ...

瑞银集团对全球多国中央银行管理层的一项最新年度调查结果显示，将近半数受访央行认为美国可能重 组其联邦债务。同时，超过七成受访央行将美国特朗普政府的关税政策等视为最大风险。报道指出，几 乎所有受调查央行都在追求储备 资产多样化，几乎所有受调查央行都看好黄金。67%的受调查央行认 为，从现在至2029年左右，黄金将是表现最佳的资产，而这一比例在2024年调查中仅为21%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS's latest report addresses ten key global economic concerns, highlighting the complex challenges facing the global economy, including tariff impacts and dollar depreciation [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Global Growth - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. are equivalent to a 1.5% GDP tax on importers, with annual tariff revenue exceeding $300 billion [2][3]. - UBS's global growth tracking shows a mere 1.3% annualized growth rate, placing it in the 8th percentile historically [5]. - There is a significant divergence between hard and soft data post-tariff announcements, with hard data showing a 3.6% annualized growth while soft data reflects only 1.3% [2]. Group 2: Dollar Depreciation - UBS holds a cyclical bearish view on the dollar but does not see it as the start of a long-term depreciation trend [10]. - The dollar's depreciation is driven by increased demand for hedging against dollar declines, a cyclical slowdown in the U.S. economy, and improving growth trends in other regions [10]. - Foreign investors hold $31.3 trillion in U.S. long-term securities, with a potential $1.25 trillion in dollar sell-off if hedging ratios increase by 5% [10]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the July CPI data, with a lag of 2-3 months observed in previous tariff implementations [14][13]. - The 10% general tariff is anticipated to have the most inflationary effect, similar to past experiences [14]. Group 4: U.S. Fiscal Outlook - The majority of changes in the U.S. budget deficit stem from the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, with concerns about long-term supply of U.S. Treasuries [23][24]. - UBS estimates that the 10-year Treasury yield's bottom should be around 2.75% even in tight conditions [26]. Group 5: Global Central Bank Responses - The actual impact of tariff shocks has differed significantly from expectations, leading to a shift in central bank policies [46]. - Since April 2, developed market one-year interest rates have decreased by an average of 30 basis points, while emerging markets have seen a decline of about 50 basis points [46]. Group 6: China's Economic Stimulus - China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% and announced moderate policy stimulus measures, with fiscal deficits expected to expand to 1.5-2% of GDP [51]. - UBS anticipates further fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year, potentially exceeding 0.5% of GDP, with additional interest rate cuts expected [55][56].