Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Market Trends - UBS believes that consumer confidence is improving, with a notable shift in preferences among consumers [3] - The firm conducted discussions with approximately 35 consumer companies and observed a recovery in consumer sentiment despite a short-term downturn in the real estate market [3] - UBS indicates that the valuation of the consumer sector remains attractive, being about one standard deviation below the 10-year average, and has not yet reflected the recovery in consumption [3] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The snack industry is expected to benefit from category expansion and channel restructuring, presenting structural growth opportunities [6] - In the liquor sector, private consumption and potential easing of drinking bans for government institutions may support mid-range liquor demand, with companies accelerating channel transformation for sustainable long-term earnings growth [5] - The ready-to-drink beverage (FMB) segment is projected to capture market share from bottled beverages, driven by rapid store expansion and more efficient business models [5] Group 3: Dairy and Other Beverages - Despite resilience in fresh milk, liquid milk sales are expected to remain weak in 2025, with a slight recovery anticipated in 2026 due to improved raw milk supply and demand, alongside marketing and innovation efforts [5] - The beer segment is experiencing short-term consumption fatigue, but product diversification and home consumption channel expansion continue to drive premiumization [5] Group 4: Other Consumer Goods - The pet food sector shows confidence in domestic market growth despite varying overseas growth prospects [7] - The home appliance industry is expected to see higher growth overseas compared to the domestic market, with strategies to cope with rising material costs differing among companies [9] - In the jewelry sector, brands with differentiated product designs and craftsmanship may pursue consolidation following VAT reforms [10]

1月20日，国际金价在避险需求推动下再度刷新历史新高，伦敦金现货价格、COMEX黄金期货价格双 双突破4700美元/盎司。2026年以来，国际贵金属市场延续强势格局，铜价亦在高位运行。 随着全球宏观不确定性加剧，贵金属及基本金属的市场走势备受关注。瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves日 前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力，机构投资者、零 售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动能，若市场对美 联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益于金价上涨的带 动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供需格局趋紧，价 格中枢有望抬升。 金价后市仍有上涨空间 Teves表示，黄金市场正经历结构性变化，多元化配置已成为推动金价上涨的核心动力。这一趋势体现 在机构投资者、零售投资者和官方部门等各类需求主体。在宏观环境充满不确定性、政策可预测性下降 的当下，投资者迫切需要分散风险，而黄金正是这一趋势的最大受益者。 从价格走势看，瑞银对今年年末金价的基准预测为4500美元/盎司，但 ...

Group 1: Trump and International Relations - Trump suggested that his proposed peace committee could potentially replace the inefficient United Nations, while acknowledging that the UN could still assist in peacekeeping efforts [4][21] - Trump expressed skepticism about the UN's effectiveness, stating that it has never helped him resolve any wars, despite his hope that it could fulfill its potential [5][21] Group 2: Market Reactions - Wall Street experienced a significant downturn, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 2%, marking its largest single-day decline since October of the previous year, and erasing all gains made in the year [7][23] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, reached its highest level since November, while gold prices surged to over $4,700 per ounce, setting a new record [7][23] Group 3: Airline Industry - United Airlines reported strong demand for premium and economy tickets, projecting record profits for the year [9][25] - The airline expects adjusted earnings per share for 2026 to be between $12 and $14, aligning closely with analyst expectations of $13.16 [10][25] - United Airlines also reported a net profit of $3.5 billion for the previous year, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase [10][25] Group 4: Media and Entertainment - Netflix has shifted to an all-cash offer to acquire Warner Bros.' studio and streaming assets, aiming to prevent Paramount from securing the deal [12][27] - The new cash offer of $27.75 per share received unanimous support from Warner Bros.' board [12][27] Group 5: Federal Reserve Leadership - The process of selecting a new Federal Reserve chair has become increasingly complex, with Trump expressing frustration over the current candidates [14][30] - Trump seeks a successor who is loyal, willing to implement significant interest rate cuts, and has credibility with both Wall Street and his political base [14][30] Group 6: Investment Strategies - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warned that selling U.S. assets and dollars is a "dangerous gamble," emphasizing that a complete withdrawal from U.S. investments is not feasible [16][32] - Ermotti highlighted the strength of the U.S. economy, stating that it remains the most powerful in the world [16][32]

(本文来自第一财经) 瑞银集团CEO塞尔吉奥·埃尔莫蒂表示，在地缘政治不确定性加剧的背景下，投资者若试图抛售美国资 产，将是在进行一场"危险的赌注"。埃尔莫蒂在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛期间指出："分散投资 却远离 美国（资产）是不现实的。美国是全球最强大的经济体，我不会押注其走弱。"周二，美国国债与标普 500指数股票同步遭到抛售，投资者正消化美国总统特朗普在推动格陵兰岛相关诉求过程中，与北约盟 友关系再度紧张的最新进展。与此同时，丹麦养老基金 AkademikerPension 计划在本月底前退出美国国 债市场。作为全球最大的财富管理机构，瑞银在美国市场与欧洲投资之间均有深度布局，管理资产规模 接近7万亿美元。 ...

1月20日，国际金价在避险需求推动下再度刷新历史新高，伦敦金现货价格、COMEX黄金期货价格双 双突破4700美元/盎司。2026年以来，国际贵金属市场延续强势格局，铜价亦在高位运行。 随着全球宏观不确定性加剧，贵金属及基本金属的市场走势备受关注。瑞银贵金属策略师Joni Teves日 前在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，多元化配置需求是本轮金价上行的核心驱动力，机构投资者、零 售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动能，若市场对美 联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000美元/盎司关口。白银则受益于金价上涨的带 动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元/盎司。铜市场在能源转型需求拉动下，供需格局趋紧，价 格中枢有望抬升。 ● 本报记者 葛瑶 金价后市仍有上涨空间 在下行风险方面，Teves提示需关注三点：一是若美国公布一系列强劲经济数据，可能对金价形成阶段 性压力；二是若政治不确定性出现缓和迹象，可能触发获利了结；三是农历新年后实物需求进入传统淡 季，任何负面的宏观因素都可能导致金价出现较深回调。但她同时表示，金价下方存在支撑：各国央行 预计将继续逢低买入， ...

Core Insights - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti indicated that there is no clear end to the volatility in financial markets, which he described as "quite abnormal" given the lack of significant market impact from recent trade tensions and conflicts [1][5] - Investors' risk appetite is reverting to historic norms, particularly in light of the White House's threats to impose tariffs on nations opposing U.S. control of Greenland [1][3] Market Sentiment - The level of news is beginning to affect client sentiments, with Ermotti noting that there is a threshold of news that can influence investor behavior [2] - The stock market experienced a rebound after a significant drop around Liberation Day last April, but it remains uncertain if the current volatility is merely short-term noise or indicative of a more substantial shift [2] Investor Behavior - Investors are becoming more cautious, opting to retain cash and diversify their portfolios carefully, as finding well-priced assets across any class is challenging [3] - Major stock indexes fell while gold and silver prices reached new highs, reflecting investor reactions to President Trump's comments regarding Greenland [3] Future Outlook - Ermotti expressed that skittishness among investors is unlikely to diminish until there are resolutions to ongoing trade disputes and geopolitical issues, stating that he does not foresee a path to normalization in the near future [4] - The continuation of volatility is expected until trade tensions, tariff issues, and geopolitical concerns, including those related to Greenland and Ukraine, are resolved [4]

Investors are “selling America” in spades Tuesday: The 10-year Treasury yield is at its highest point since August; the U.S. dollar slid; and the traditional safe-haven metal investments—gold and silver—surged once again to record highs.The CEO of UBS Group, the world’s largest private bank, thinks this market is making a “dangerous bet.”“Diversifying away from America is impossible,” UBS Group CEO Sergio Ermotti told Bloomberg in a television interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on ...

Group 1 - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warns that selling U.S. assets and the dollar is a "dangerous bet" for investors [1] - Ermotti emphasizes that it is impossible to completely shift asset allocation out of the U.S., as it remains the world's strongest economy [1] - The U.S. Treasury bonds faced selling pressure, and the S&P 500 index declined amid rising tensions between President Trump and NATO allies over Greenland [1] Group 2 - UBS, as the world's largest wealth management firm, has nearly $7 trillion in assets and is seeking to expand its wealth management business in the U.S. [2] - The bank's application for a full banking license in the U.S. has received conditional approval [2] - Ermotti states that the U.S. market continues to be a focal point for UBS due to ongoing wealth creation and innovation in the economy [2]

Zurich Insurance Group AG has gone public with a £7.67 billion ($10.3 billion) bid to buy Beazley Plc, increasing pressure on the UK-listed company it’s been wooing for more than 12 months.The Swiss insurer offered to buy London-based Beazley at 1,280 pence a share in cash, according to a statement Monday, a 56% premium to the company’s closing price Friday. A deal would create a “global leader” in specialty insurance with about $15 billion of gross written premiums, Zurich said. The proposal is the fifth m ...

Company Overview - Proactive is a financial news publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company operates with a team of experienced and qualified news journalists, ensuring independent content production [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The news team delivers insights across various sectors, including biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Utilization - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance its workflows, utilizing decades of expertise among its content creators [4] - The company employs automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all published content is edited and authored by humans [5]