Global Research ab 29 January 2026 First Read China Property Our thoughts on recent rally Our thoughts on recent rally Chinese property developers rallied by 8% on average today. We think this is due to 1) relaxation of Three Red Lines (see news) to developers, 2) recent recovery of secondary transaction and housing price stabilization in tier 1 cities. Based on our channel checks with developers and property agents, it is still too early to call for a stabilization. First, they view the recent secondary tr ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the volatility of gold prices, with a significant drop of over 10% on January 30, 2026, marking the largest single-day decline in 40 years, despite previous surges that saw gold prices exceed $5,500 [2] - UBS maintains a bullish stance on gold, raising its price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $6,200 per ounce, an increase of 24% from the previous target of $5,000 per ounce [2] - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to increased caution among banks, with major banks implementing stricter risk assessment measures for clients engaging in precious metal transactions [3] Group 2 - A recent incident involving Shenzhen Jie Wo Rui Jewelry Company has raised concerns, as it has faced issues with abnormal operations and is reportedly offering discounted payouts to clients, with options for principal payments at 40% or 20% of the original value [3] - Ningbo Bank announced adjustments to its gold investment product interest rates, with current rates set at 0% for demand deposits and ranging from 0.3% to 0.5% for fixed-term deposits [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market is experiencing a historical peak defined by structural demand and risk aversion, with gold prices showing the strongest monthly performance since 1982 [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investment demand, central bank strategic purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties are driving gold prices upward, leading to a significant revision of UBS's price target for gold from $5000 to $6200 for most of 2026 [1][3] - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of over 25%, continuing the momentum from last year's bull market, with prices hovering around $5344.98, despite a slight correction from $5400 [1][4] Group 2: Demand Statistics - Global gold demand is projected to exceed 5000 tons in 2025, with investment activities being the primary driver, including an increase of 801 tons in ETF holdings and a record high of approximately 1375 tons in physical gold purchases [4] Group 3: Central Bank Strategies - Central banks purchased 863 tons of gold last year, maintaining a high level historically, with Poland raising its gold reserve target from 550 tons to 700 tons, indicating a shift from price-sensitive to strategic allocation [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market's dynamics will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy and geopolitical situations, with UBS projecting an optimistic scenario target of $7200 and a pessimistic floor around $4600 for 2026 [5] - Post-U.S. midterm elections, gold prices may experience a moderate decline to $5900 due to reduced uncertainty, but its appeal as a "safe-haven asset" remains unchanged [5]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Outlook - If Kevin Warsh is nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to steepen, driven by short-term yields declining faster than long-term yields [1] - Conversely, if Rick Rieder from BlackRock is nominated, the yield curve may flatten as long-term yields decrease more rapidly than short-term yields [1] - Regardless of the nomination outcome, market reactions are anticipated to be temporary as the new chair will need to persuade other committee members [1] Group 2: Emerging Markets Performance - Developed economies are facing fiscal and policy risks, while emerging markets are experiencing strong capital inflows, continuing the trend from late 2025 [2] - Emerging market equities are projected to achieve their best monthly performance since November 2022, with UBS Global Wealth Management forecasting further gains [2] - In January, 15 out of 22 emerging market currencies in the MSCI index appreciated, and the Bloomberg Emerging Market Local Currency Government Bond Index has returned approximately 2% this year [2] Group 3: Euro and ECB Concerns - Analysts from Deutsche Bank express concerns about the European Central Bank's apprehension regarding the appreciation of the euro, which could further lower inflation [2] - ECB officials are wary of the negative effects of a strong euro and are reluctant to allow significant appreciation [2] Group 4: Gold and Precious Metals Market - Analysts indicate that gold prices surged in January, with a peak increase of nearly $1,300 per ounce, but signs of a market top are emerging [3] - As the market anticipates the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair, gold prices are under pressure, with a potential further decline expected [3] - The recent sharp drop in precious metals is speculated to trigger deeper corrections, as the market lacks clear catalysts for such a rapid decline [3] Group 5: Japan's Economic Forecast - Analysts from ING predict a moderate economic recovery in Japan by Q4 2025, with a projected GDP growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, reversing a previous contraction [4] - Economic activity in Japan has shown signs of slowing, with retail sales in December falling more than expected and manufacturing activity likely remaining subdued [4]

Group 1 - Precious metals, including gold and silver, experienced significant declines, with gold falling below $5,100 and a daily drop exceeding 5% [1] - Silver saw an even steeper decline, with a daily drop of 10% [2] Group 2 - UBS raised its gold price target for March, June, and September 2026 to $6,200 per ounce, up from a previous forecast of $5,000, citing stronger-than-expected demand driven by increased investment [4] - The bank anticipates a slight decline in gold prices to $5,900 per ounce after the 2026 U.S. midterm elections [4] - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand is expected to reach a record high of 5,002 tons in 2025, with investment demand rising to 2,175 tons, which is a key driver for this increase [4][5] Group 3 - The report highlights that the core drivers of strong gold investment demand include safe-haven demand and asset diversification, influenced by high geopolitical and economic risks, a weakening dollar, and high stock valuations [5] - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve also played a crucial role in the gold market dynamics for 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has significantly raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $6,200 per ounce from a previous forecast of $5,000, citing stronger-than-expected demand driven by increased investment [1] Group 1: Gold Price Forecasts - UBS expects a slight decline in gold prices to $5,900 per ounce after the 2026 U.S. midterm elections [3] - The current spot gold price experienced significant volatility, peaking near $5,600 and dropping to around $5,100, with a daily fluctuation of nearly $500 [3] - Year-to-date, gold has risen over 20%, continuing the historic upward trend from last year, supported by increased investment demand, central bank purchases, dollar depreciation, and escalating geopolitical uncertainties [3] Group 2: Global Gold Demand - The World Gold Council (WGC) reported that global gold demand is expected to grow by 1% year-on-year in 2025, reaching a record high of 5,002 tons, marking the first time total demand exceeds 5,000 tons [3] - Investment demand for gold is projected to surge by 84% in 2025, reaching a record 2,175 tons, primarily driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, with a net increase of 801 tons for the year [3] - Physical gold investment demand remains strong, with global demand for gold bars and coins reaching 1,374 tons, while central bank purchases totaled 863 tons, remaining high despite being lower than recent records [3] Group 3: Central Bank and Seasonal Demand - UBS has raised its gold demand forecasts for most sectors in 2026 but maintains its central bank gold purchase forecast at approximately 950 tons [4] - Poland has increased its gold holding target from 550 tons to 700 tons, which could indicate a broader trend among central banks becoming less sensitive to gold prices [4] - In China, physical gold demand remains robust due to seasonal factors and positive market sentiment, although a decline in demand is expected after the Lunar New Year [4] Group 4: Extreme Scenario Predictions - UBS provided extreme scenario forecasts for gold prices, with an upside target of $7,200 per ounce and a downside target of $4,600 per ounce [5] - A shift to a hawkish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve could suppress gold prices, while a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions could drive prices higher [5]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，2025年全球黄金需求同比增长1%，达到5002吨，创历史新高，这是黄 金总需求量首次突破5000吨。其中，全球黄金投资需求飙升84%至2175吨，成为推动总需求增长的主要 动力，黄金ETF全年净增801吨，全球金条和金币需求达1374吨，央行购金863吨虽低于近年纪录但仍处 高位。 瑞银提到，波兰将黄金持有目标从550吨上调至700吨，若该调整被更多国家效仿，或意味着各国央行对 黄金价格的敏感度有所降低。针对中国市场，瑞银指出受季节性因素支撑，当前实物黄金需求保持坚 挺，农历新年过后需求预计有所回落。 此外，瑞银指出，若美联储货币政策转向鹰派，或将对金价形成压制；地缘政治紧张局势急剧升级，则 可能推动金价进一步上涨。 瑞银集团维持黄金看涨立场，将2026年3月、6月和9月的黄金价格目标上调至6200美元/盎司，此前目标 价为5000美元/盎司，升幅达24%。该机构同时预计，2026年底黄金价格将温和回落至5900美元/盎司。 瑞银同步给出黄金价格的极端情景预测，上行情景目标为7200美元/盎司， ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a bullish stance on gold, raising its price targets for March, June, and September 2026 to $6,200 per ounce, a 24% increase from the previous target of $5,000 per ounce. The firm also anticipates a moderate decline in gold prices to $5,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1]. Price Forecasts - UBS's extreme scenario forecasts for gold prices include a bullish target of $7,200 per ounce and a bearish target of $4,600 per ounce, with the latter reflecting a volatility close to one standard deviation [1].

南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者李依农 当地时间1月28日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间 维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，这一决议与市场普遍预期相符。美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在 声明中指出，当前经济活动正以"稳健扩张"，但经济前景不确定性仍然较高。 "美国通胀与劳动力市场或将释放大量矛盾信号，对美联储及其货币政策带来挑战。" 瑞银首席美国经 济学家Jonathan Pingle在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，美联储今年最大的政策驱动因素将是劳动力市 场，目前失业率仍处于略高水平，到年底大约维持在4.5%左右，这样的疲软程度足以支撑美联储今年 实施两次降息。无论新任美联储主席是谁，即使不立即降息，也会逐步推动利率下行。 Pingle认为，关税传导效应延缓了美国整体通胀下降的进程，上半年通胀将保持在高位，但2027年通胀 有望回落。对于今年美国股市前景，Pingle持相对乐观态度，预期今年依然会有不错表现。 预计美联储下半年降息两次 南方财经：当前市场对美联储降息的速度和幅度仍有分歧，你对此有何看法？ Jonathan Pingle：当前美国经济前景仍然存在较大 ...

瑞银策略师本周已向客户示警，称贵金属及工业金属近期涨幅"失控"。 贵金属分析师Bill Holter最新警告称， 纽约商品交易所（COMEX）可能最早在2026年3月出现白银实物交割违约，这将彻底摧毁现有定价机制的公 信力，并引发蔓延至黄金及信用市场的连锁反应，进而导致整个金融体系崩溃。 据Holter透露，在传统上属于非交割月的1月，COMEX已有超过4000万盎司白银申请交割，而往年同期这一数字通常仅为100万至200万盎司。随着3 月主要交割月临近，交割需求达到7000万至8000万盎司，可能耗尽COMEX目前登记的1.1亿至1.2亿盎司库存。 ...