Core Insights - UBS reported a total market value of $620 billion in Q4, reflecting a decrease of 5.65% from the previous quarter [3] - The firm made 1,347 new stock purchases and increased holdings in 4,181 stocks, while reducing holdings in 4,520 stocks and completely selling out of 1,188 stocks [3] - The top ten holdings accounted for 14.52% of the total market value [3] Top Holdings - NVIDIA (NVDA.US) is the largest holding with approximately 77.49 million shares valued at $14.45 billion, representing 2.34% of the portfolio, down 11.47% from the previous quarter [1][4] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) ranks second with about 28.04 million shares valued at $13.56 billion, making up 2.20% of the portfolio, a decrease of 7.64% [2][4] - Apple (AAPL.US) is third with around 44.55 million shares valued at $12.11 billion, accounting for 1.96% of the portfolio, down 10.57% [2][4] - Broadcom (AVGO.US) is fourth with approximately 23.77 million shares valued at $8.23 billion, representing 1.33% of the portfolio, an increase of 0.88% [2][4] - Amazon (AMZN.US) is fifth with about 34.61 million shares valued at $7.99 billion, making up 1.30% of the portfolio, down 4.57% [2][4] Notable Changes - UBS reduced its holdings in several tech stocks, including Micron Technology (MU.US) by 16.14%, TSMC (TSM.US) by 15.56%, Oracle (ORCL.US) by 1.91%, AMD (AMD.US) by 24.28%, and Western Digital (WDC.US) by 37.92% [5] - The firm slightly increased its position in Meta (META.US) by 0.85% among the "seven giants" [4] - New positions were established in Total (TTE.US) and increased holdings in Walmart (WMT.US), Alibaba (BABA.US), and Bitcoin holding company Strategy (MSTR.US) [5] Trading Activity - The top five purchases included Microsoft call options, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US), MP Materials call options, UBS Group AG, and iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF put options [5][6] - The top five sales included SPDR S&P 500 ETF put options, Invesco QQQ Trust put options, iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond put options, Microsoft, and NVIDIA [5][6]

Core Insights - UBS reported a total market value of $620 billion for its Q4 2025 holdings, reflecting a decrease of 5.65% from the previous quarter [1][2] - The firm added 1,347 new stocks and increased holdings in 4,181 stocks, while reducing holdings in 4,520 stocks and completely selling out of 1,188 stocks [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 14.52% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Overview - The largest holding is NVIDIA (NVDA.US) with approximately 77.49 million shares valued at about $14.45 billion, representing 2.34% of the portfolio, down 11.47% from the previous quarter [3][4] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) is the second largest holding with around 28.04 million shares valued at approximately $13.56 billion, making up 2.20% of the portfolio, a decrease of 7.64% [3][4] - Apple (AAPL.US) ranks third with about 44.55 million shares valued at around $12.11 billion, accounting for 1.96% of the portfolio, down 10.57% [3][4] - Other significant holdings include Broadcom (AVGO.US) and Amazon (AMZN.US), with respective values of $8.23 billion and $7.99 billion [3][4] Changes in Holdings - UBS reduced its positions in major tech stocks such as Micron Technology (MU.US) by 16.14%, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) by 15.56%, and AMD (AMD.US) by 24.28% [5] - The firm also decreased its holdings in Google (GOOGL.US) by 9.05% and Tesla (TSLA.US) by 15.09%, while slightly increasing its position in Meta (META.US) by 0.85% [3][5] - New investments included Walmart (WMT.US), Alibaba (BABA.US), and a new position in TotalEnergies (TTE.US) [6] Trading Activity - The top five purchases included Microsoft call options, SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US), and MP Materials call options [6][7] - The top five sales were SPDR S&P 500 ETF put options, Invesco QQQ Trust put options, and Microsoft and NVIDIA shares [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dramatic decline in silver prices has raised questions among investors about where the bottom lies and when a recovery might occur [8] Group 1: Price Movements and Volatility - Silver prices experienced a nearly 30% drop last Friday and have struggled to stabilize, with a subsequent 19% decline on Thursday after brief rebounds earlier in the week [9] - UBS strategists noted that the recent drop appears driven more by widespread risk aversion than by fundamental collapse, warning that extreme volatility poses significant risks for short-term positions [9] - The one-month volatility of silver has exceeded 100%, indicating potential for severe price fluctuations in the short term [9] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - UBS forecasts a supply deficit of nearly 300 million ounces this year, with investment demand expected to exceed 400 million ounces, although high prices may suppress industrial demand [9] - The London Stock Exchange (LSEG) reported that silver has recorded 11 instances of price movements of 5% or more since the beginning of the year [9] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, UBS believes the long-term fundamentals for silver remain intact, driven by declining nominal and real interest rates, global debt issues, dollar depreciation, and expectations of global economic recovery by 2026 [9] - Vasu Menon from OCBC maintains a structural bullish outlook for silver, suggesting that it possesses dual characteristics of precious and industrial metals, which can make it vulnerable during periods of heightened risk aversion [11] - Menon set a long-term price target for silver at $134 per ounce by March 2027, highlighting its applications in solar energy, catalysts, and electronics [11] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Nicky Shiels from MKS PAMP indicated that silver's recent performance lacks similarities to past bull markets driven by physical supply constraints, labeling it as a "meme commodity" due to its extreme volatility [10] - The expansion of retail channels has amplified speculative capital flows into silver, with expectations that prices may need to digest excess pressure from previous gains before rebounding, potentially dropping to $60 per ounce [10]

Group 1 - UBS is accelerating its AI investments, launching over 300 AI use cases across its operations by 2025 and appointing its first chief AI officer, Daniele Magazzeni, in January 2026 [3][5] - The integration with Credit Suisse is a key focus for UBS, with expectations to substantially complete it by the end of 2026, although the final client migration is complex and critical for winding down legacy infrastructure [5][8] - UBS aims to apply a "one-bank approach" to enhance services and productivity through AI-enabled capabilities, investing in large-scale transformational AI programs to improve operational resilience and client experience [8] Group 2 - Other banks are also pursuing AI advancements, with UBS not being alone in this trend, as seen with leadership changes and the establishment of AI-focused roles across the industry [3][6] - Ronald Jansen, the global head of the AI lab at UBS, has left the company to join JPMorgan Chase as head of AI for HR and employee experience [6] - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia appointed Ranil Boteju as its chief AI officer, indicating a broader shift in leadership structures within the banking sector to accommodate AI initiatives [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss government's proposals to strengthen capital rules for UBS are deemed proportionate by Stefan Walter, CEO of Swiss financial market supervisor FINMA, indicating a balanced approach to regulation in Switzerland [1] Group 1 - The proposed capital rules aim to enhance the stability and resilience of UBS, reflecting a proactive regulatory stance [1] - FINMA emphasizes that the regulation in Switzerland is not overly burdensome, suggesting a focus on maintaining competitiveness while ensuring financial safety [1]

Core Insights - UBS Group's investment banking division is set to increase its bonus pool by up to 20% in 2025 [1] Group 1 - The increase in the bonus pool reflects the company's performance and strategic goals for the upcoming year [1] - This potential increase may attract and retain top talent within the investment banking sector [1] - The decision indicates a positive outlook for UBS's investment banking operations moving forward [1]

瑞银表示，白银应会受益于金价上涨以及近期基本面收紧。相信黄金和白银在2026年都可能进一步上 涨。(新浪财经) 瑞银表示，白银应会受益于金价上涨以及近期基本面收紧。相信黄金和白银在2026年都可能进一步上 涨。(新浪财经) （来源：科创100ETF基金） （来源：科创100ETF基金） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, has led investment banks to increase their bullish positions on gold while cautioning against heavy investments in silver [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling below $4,800, after a brief rebound earlier in the week [1]. - Despite the recent sell-off, many market observers, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, maintain a bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $6,200 next month and $5,900 by year-end [2][3]. - UBS identifies that the current sell-off is a normal fluctuation within a structural uptrend, with no signs of a bull market ending [2]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a price of $5,400 per ounce by December 2026, supported by central banks increasing gold reserves and private investors boosting gold ETF purchases [2]. Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have seen a dramatic decline of over 30% from recent highs, with UBS suggesting that further declines are necessary for the metal to become attractive for investment [4][5]. - UBS highlights that silver's industrial demand complicates its price dynamics, as rising prices may suppress industrial usage [5]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs express caution regarding silver due to liquidity issues in the London market, which exacerbate price volatility [5]. - American Bank also holds a cautiously optimistic view on silver but notes potential upward resistance from declining solar panel demand [5]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment - The recent volatility in precious metals has created opportunities for investors seeking returns, despite the associated risks [2]. - UBS emphasizes the need for investors to carefully assess the expected returns on highly volatile assets like silver, which currently do not meet the required return thresholds [4]. - The market remains sensitive to geopolitical tensions and monetary policy changes, which could influence precious metal prices moving forward [1][3].

Group 1 - The UBS Chief Investment Office (CIO) expects global stock markets to rise by approximately 10% by the end of this year, with the US market remaining a core component of investors' equity allocations and having further upside potential [1] - Other regions outside the largest global economy also present attractive opportunities, driven by strategic autonomy, regional fiscal expansion, and structural reforms, with a particular focus on China, Japan, and Europe [1] - The Chinese government's explicit support for domestic artificial intelligence (AI) models and chip manufacturing is expected to lay the foundation for further increases in Chinese tech stocks [1] Group 2 - In a low interest rate environment, domestic investors are pursuing yields, which is likely to benefit sectors such as finance, healthcare, consumer goods, materials, and power equipment due to structural advantages from healthcare companies expanding internationally, the rise of new consumption models, and grid modernization [1]

Shares in UBS Group ( UBS ) are down on Q4 2025 earnings, which reflect the ongoing impact of the Credit Suisse integration. The bank also unveiled an ambitious 18% return on CET1 [RoCET1] profitability targetI ventured into investing in high school in 2011, mainly in REITs, preferred stocks, and high-yield bonds, starting a fascination with markets and the economy that has not faded despite the years. More recently I have been combining long stock positions with covered calls and cash secured puts. I appro ...