1月13日至14日，瑞银集团在上海举办第26届瑞银大中华研讨会(GCC)。本届研讨会以"新前沿：识变 局，谋增长"为主题，与会者超过3600名，包括2300余位来自全球的机构投资者、主权财富基金管理 人、家族办公室代表等。 瑞银集团首席执行官安思杰(Sergio P.Ermotti)在会上表示，来自海外的客户人数有所增加，彰显亚太地 区的重要地位以及投资者对中国市场的关注度在提升。"中国是瑞银集团的战略市场之一。中国经济展 现了韧性，在先进制造、人工智能等领域不断释放的创新动能及其稳步提升的资本市场全球影响力，为 全球投资者带来了新的机遇。" "2025年，全球在创新发展、政治动荡与市场意外之间并行交织。聚焦亚太与中国，他们不仅是全球故 事的参与者，更在书写下一个崭新篇章。"安思杰认为，亚太区有望抓住人工智能(AI)带来的新一轮红 利——中国科技板块于2025年加速创新，在AI价值链各层面都取得了显著进展。中国的新AI模型展现 了技术方面的领先地位，支持性政策则正在强化生态系统的韧性。 他还提到，亚太区依然是瑞银实现增长的关键市场，未来五年北美与大中华区有望成为全球财富创造的 最强引擎。2025年，瑞银在亚太 ...

本报讯（记者鲍仁）1月13日，第26届瑞银大中华研讨会在上海举办，主题为"新前沿、识变局、谋增 长"。研讨会上，与会专家表示，面对当前全球格局的再平衡及AI驱动的科技革命加速，整个中国资产 的价值将被重估，未来其在全球组合中的权重有望大幅上升。 瑞银集团首席执行官安思杰表示，2025年全球在创新发展、政治动荡与市场意外之间交织并行。按美元 计价，中国与欧洲股市均跑赢美国。黄金价格创下历史新高。美国贸易协定的变化既引发了市场波动， 同时也体现出多国经济的韧性。人工智能和科技相关投资的激增，推动了全球经济增长。 王宗豪认为，2026年上半年中国股市会比下半年机会更多，这是因为"通常大的长线资金会在年初做配 置决策，特别是一季度闲置的'开门红'资金，大概率也会投入到风险资产中"。 不过，王宗豪表示，持续推动股市的抓手是EPS（每股收益）的增长，因此7—8月需关注盈利兑现的情 况。 安思杰认为，2026年仍有诸多值得注意的市场因素。例如，持续升级的地缘局势；人工智能的真实影 响、投资回报率及科技公司估值的合理性；多国债务攀升；公共和私人信贷市场收紧的息差和宽松标准 可能带来的风险；全球市场对分散化投资策略的检视。 （ ...

回顾2025年，安思杰指出，全球在创新发展、政治动荡与市场意外之间并行交织；按美元计价，中国与欧洲股市跑赢美国；黄金创下历史新高；美国贸 易协定的变化引发波动，同时也体现出多国经济的韧性。人工智能和科技相关投资的激增推动了全球增长，尤其是在美国。 展望新的一年，安思杰认为，市场仍有诸多待解命题：持续且不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势；人工智能的真实影响与投资回报率、科技公司估值的合理 性；多国债务攀升；公共和私人信贷市场收紧的息差和宽松标准可能造成的风险等。 关于亚太与中国市场，安思杰表示，"亚太区尤其中国，是'全球故事'的参与者，如今正在书写下一页崭新篇章。亚太区的财富已占全球财富的三分之 一以上，是全球经济增长最快的地区。中国作为全球第二大经济体，经济持续展现韧性。未来五年，北美与中国有望成为全球财富创造的最强引擎。" 1月13日，以"新前沿：识变局, 谋增长"为主题的第26届瑞银大中华研讨会（GCC）在上海拉开帷幕。 瑞银集团首席执行官安思杰（Sergio P. Ermotti）于会上发表致辞。他介绍道，早在1950年，瑞士便成为了最早承认中华人民共和国的国家之一。1964 年，瑞银成为首家在亚太设立分支机构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a correction after a period of increase, but there is optimism for the first quarter of the year due to overall liquidity easing, which is expected to drive up market valuations [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - UBS Securities analyst Meng Lei expresses a positive outlook for A-shares in the first quarter, attributing this to overall liquidity easing that will promote valuation increases [1] - For the entire year of 2026, an increase in overall earnings combined with a valuation recovery is expected to further drive A-shares upward [1] Group 2: Supporting Factors - UBS Global Financial Markets Department head Fang Dongming highlights strong innovation capabilities, supportive policies, ample liquidity, and potential inflows from domestic and foreign institutional investors as key factors that will support another prosperous year for the Chinese stock market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that despite recent adjustments in the A-share market, there is an overall optimistic outlook for the first quarter of 2026, driven by liquidity, policy support, and potential inflows from domestic and international investors [2][5][6] - UBS analysts predict that the A-share market could see further upward movement in 2026, with an expected overall profit growth of around 8% [5][6] - The A-share market has shown significant gains over the past year, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 20%, the Shenzhen Component Index over 36%, and the ChiNext Index over 55% [4] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised about whether A-share valuations are still attractive, as the price-to-earnings ratio has reached a historical mean level, but there is still room for further recovery compared to global markets [4][6] - The trading volume in the A-share market has been active, indicating a healthy market environment without signs of overheating, with personal investors and institutional funds continuing to flow into the market [5][6] - UBS analysts highlight that the Chinese stock market remains attractive due to its lower valuation compared to historical averages, despite recent increases [6][7] Group 3 - The first half of 2026 is expected to present more opportunities for investors, with foreign capital likely to continue increasing its allocation to Chinese stocks [7] - Key investment themes include AI, internet companies, brokerage firms, and the photovoltaic sector, with a focus on companies that can benefit from global trends and technological advancements [8] - The Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to capture new opportunities from AI advancements, with significant progress expected in the Chinese tech sector by 2025 [8]

UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti is set to step down after completing the integration of Credit Suisse, with the Financial Times reporting on Tuesday that the veteran Swiss banker's departure is expected in April 2027. ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银全球金融市场部中国主管房东明表示，该行继续超配中国股票，指即使中国股 市涨幅虽然不少，现估值较其历史均值稍高，但相对全球市场仍具吸引力。他认同中国宏观经济存在挑 战，但与创新有关的板块则仍在上涨，因此只要创新板块能持续发力，将带动整体中资股股市。 至于内地资金特别是机构资金，房东明观察到也在持续加强中国股市，包括险资、公募基金，因A股成 交量反映了内地散户正踊跃投入。不过，今年下半年他料投资者将更希望看到企业盈利能够兑现，因为 机构投资者觉得中国股市倘若再没有进一步推动股市的"抓手"，有需要通过盈利增长而非纯粹的估值上 升推动后市。因此，今年7、8月份尤为关键，因届时为中期业绩公布期。 房东明提到，中国股市的最大推动点是政策，尤其是对股市的政策，因政策发力前所未见，除了宽松政 策持续释放，国家队也对A股市场提供支持，政策也同时对实体经济及民营企业发挥作用。 展望2026年，房东明相信2025年的股市动力会持续，包括在资金层面。他提到，外资对中国股市兴趣提 升，跟外资交流时也能感受到投资者对中国市场的热情程度，通常大规模的长线资金也会在年初作出配 置决策，意味会"开门红"期间资金有机会投 ...

ab 9 January 2026 Global Research China Economic Perspectives Key Themes and Possible Surprises in 2026 Our baseline economic forecasts and key themes We expect China's GDP growth to slow modestly to 4.5% in 2026. We expect exports to decelerate in 2026, leading to a much narrower growth contribution. Overall domestic activities are likely to stay largely resilient, with property downturn to continue albeit with smaller contractions, consumption to maintain a modest but softer pace, infrastructure and manuf ...

ab 9 January 2026 Global Research Global Oil Fundamentals Expert call feedback: 2026 oil market outlook Oil price likely to remain in the $60s We hosted an expert call yesterday with Dr. Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, to discuss the 2026 oil market outlook. The expert's base case is that Brent is likely to trade sideways in the ~$60s/bbl, with any spikes related to geopolitics or dips amid perceived oversupply likely to be temporary. This is consistent with the view we outlined i ...

Core Viewpoint - Active overseas funds are beginning to increase their allocation to Chinese assets, with a notable rise in engagement between UBS's team and overseas clients over the past year [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Trading investors are particularly aggressive in increasing their positions in China, while allocation-focused investors are optimizing their portfolios by considering the fundamental performance of companies and policy implementation [1] - By 2026, allocation-focused investors are expected to significantly increase their investments in Chinese assets [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The attractiveness of Chinese assets is anticipated to further increase this year, as global investors place greater emphasis on diversification [1] - China is expected to become an important incremental market for international capital allocation [1] Group 3: Underlying Factors - The renewed confidence in the market is driven by strong innovation capabilities, supportive policies, ample liquidity, and the potential inflow of funds from domestic and international institutional investors [1] - These factors are expected to support the Chinese stock market in experiencing another prosperous year [1]