Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts indicate that the impact of a potential further suspension of tariffs on the US dollar remains uncertain, with a 90-day tariff suspension ending on July 9 [1] Group 1 - A further suspension of tariffs may be interpreted as a reluctance to implement tariffs, potentially boosting risk-sensitive currencies [1] - If high tariffs are avoided, the US dollar could receive some initial support [1] - However, a reduction in tariffs might lead the market to price in expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that if tariffs had not boosted inflation expectations, he would have already cut interest rates [1]

ab Global Research 30 June 2025 China Economic Comment China Weekly: Sliding Home Sales, Trade-In to Continue, Trade Talks, Weak May Profits High frequency: sliding home sales, softer port activities in June 30-city property sales declined further to -11% YoY in the first 28 days of June from -3% YoY in May. That in tier 1 cities slid to -7% YoY, tier 2 cities narrowed decline to - 11% YoY and tier 3 cities weakened to -17% YoY (also see latest China housing survey). Port cargo throughput and container thro ...

UBS Group AG (UBS) is looking like an interesting pick from a technical perspective, as the company reached a key level of support. Recently, UBS's 50-day simple moving average crossed above its 200-day simple moving average, known as a "golden cross."There's a reason traders love a golden cross -- it's a technical chart pattern that can indicate a bullish breakout is on the horizon. This kind of crossover is formed when a stock's short-term moving average breaks above a longer-term moving average. Typicall ...

图片来源：Anastasiia Krivenok—Getty Images 在很多美国人看来，带双车位和白色篱笆的大房子，还有储蓄丰厚的银行账户，这一梦想已逐渐褪色。 但对去年37.9万美国新晋百万富翁而言，梦想正照进现实。 据投资银行瑞银的最新数据，2024 年美国每天（包括周末）新增超1000名百万富翁，超高净值人群比 例增长1.5%。 如今以美元计美国百万富翁人数已居全球之首，是中国的四倍，更超过法国、英国、德国、加拿大、日 本和澳大利亚百万富翁人数总和。 百万富翁人数激增背后，主要原因是房地产升值，不过美股创纪录的表现也功不可没。 新创办人工智能独角兽或金融科技公司并不现实，不过普通美国人正通过其他渠道积累财富。保险和养 老金计划（如 401 (k)）已成为稳健增值的主流方式，只是Z世代尚未完全接受。即便近期市场表现低 迷，股票等金融投资手段还是能迅速实现财富增值，尤其是在海外市场。 对于想通过房产跻身百万富翁的人们，白手起家的房地产大亨芭芭拉・柯克兰给出了关键建议。面对房 贷利率，人们总会犹疑观望，这位真人秀Shark Tank上的投资大佬表示，利率非个人能左右，择机入市 是上策。 "我的建议是立即 ...

今晚20:30即将公布的美国6月非农就业数据备受全球市场瞩目。 昨夜ADP"小非农"爆冷—— 美国私营部门就业人数在6月份意外大幅下降3.3万人，创下自2023年3月以来的首次负增长 ，显示劳动力市场的显 著疲软。因此， 数据再次变得重要，正成为推动美联储提前采取降息行动的关键因素。 据媒体调查的普遍预计， 6月非农就业数据将新增10.6万人，低于5月的13.9万人。 失业率预计将从5月的4.2%小幅上升至 4.3%。 瑞银在27日的研报中认为，6月非农就业人数将仅增加10万人，失业率将上升至4.3%，这将是2021年以来的最高水平；花旗银行在同日发布的研报中则更为悲 观，预测6月非农就业仅增加 8.5万个岗位，失业率将升至 4.4%。花旗分析师指出，非农就业增长已连续数月放缓并遭遇大幅下修，这一趋势预计将在6月延 续；高盛分析师则警告， 如果数据低于6万人，可能引发市场对"滞胀性衰退"的担忧。 面对日益严峻的就业形势，美联储的政策走向成为各方关注的焦点。尽管美联储主席鲍威尔此前仍强调政策制定者可以保持耐心，但瑞银和花旗的报告均指 出， 如果6月就业数据表现异常疲软，美联储最早可能在7月便采取降息行动。 非农 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS has upgraded the luxury goods sector rating from underweight to benchmark allocation based on tactical and structural considerations, indicating a potential bottoming out of the sector after significant declines [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Projections - UBS reports that the luxury goods sector has reached an extreme oversold condition, with a 100% probability of outperforming the market over the next six months [2][4]. - The sector is currently at a near three standard deviation oversold state, a rare occurrence historically [3]. - The expected earnings revisions for the luxury sector are less severe than the overall market, suggesting that stock prices have already reflected more pessimistic expectations than warranted [6]. Group 2: Valuation and Structural Support - The luxury goods sector's 12-month forward P/E ratio premium relative to the market is currently at 80%, which, while above the historical average of 63%, is only slightly higher than normal levels [7]. - The valuation metrics have returned to levels seen a decade ago, with major European luxury companies' earnings per share only 9% above trend lines, compared to peaks of 50% above [7]. - The U.S. market provides structural support for luxury goods, accounting for approximately 21% of the luxury market and nearly 33% of its growth, driven by factors such as stock market wealth effects and excess savings among high-income households [9][11]. Group 3: Long-term Structural Advantages - The luxury goods industry possesses unique structural advantages, including high brand value, long brand lifespans, and the appreciation of high-end luxury goods, alongside growth in the middle class in emerging markets [11]. - For instance, in India, the highest income quintile is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2024 to 2030, significantly outpacing the overall population growth rate of 1.3% [11].

瑞银资产管理公司全球主权市场策略与咨询主管马克斯•卡斯泰利表示，这些担忧表明，"非常明显"的 是，关税措施改变了储备管理者对美元的看法。 调查称，29%的受访者希望减少对美国资产的敞口，以应对近期的事态发展。然而，在未来一年，25% 的央行表示，在剔除那些希望增加美元敞口的央行后，它们预计将减少美元敞口，略低于过去一年。 卡斯泰利说:"当你问:你认为美元的主导地位真的会发生重大变化吗?答案是否定的。"他补充称，储备管 理者需要时间进行调整。 近80%的受访者预计，美元(目前占外汇储备的58%)仍将是全球储备货币。在未来一年，黄金是最大的 赢家，52%的央行希望增加黄金储备。 卡斯泰利表示，这主要反映出新兴市场央行对制裁风险的担忧，主要涉及存放在美国的黄金。特朗普的 政策也重新引发了德国对其央行黄金储备的质疑，其中一些黄金储备存放在纽约联邦储备银行。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银资产管理公司周四公布的一项调查显示，三分之二的央行管理者担心美联储的 独立性受到威胁，近一半的官员认为美国的法治可能会恶化到足以严重影响他们的资产配置。 近40家央行中有35%认为，美国可能会要求盟友将长期债务转换为其他工具，如超长期零息债 ...

瑞银：特朗普对越南的20%关税处于预期范围的低端 金十数据7月3日讯，瑞银经济学家William Deng在一份研究报告中说，美国对越南商品征收的20%关税 处于预期范围的低端。越南允许美国商品免税进入该国的决定"在很大程度上是意料之中的"，因为美国 产品在技术和能源等领域的更多准入应该有利于越南的经济增长。该贸易协议的细节对于确定对越南的 经济影响至关重要，尤其是对转运货物的影响，转运货物将面临40%的关税。今后一个关键的观察点 是，是否有进一步向美国和国际资本开放金融市场的细节。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP growth is expected to remain robust at 5.0-5.2% YoY for Q2 2025, supported by front-loading of exports and earlier government stimulus measures [4][32] - The property market continues to face challenges, with 30-city property sales declining by 10% YoY in June, and top 100 developers' contract sales volume down by 35% YoY [9][19] - Manufacturing PMIs show slight improvements, with NBS manufacturing PMI at 49.7 and Caixin manufacturing PMI at 50.4 in June, indicating a less negative growth momentum [7][10] Economic Data Summary - **GDP Growth**: Q2 GDP growth is projected at 5.0-5.2% YoY, with a slower sequential growth compared to Q1 [4][32] - **Industrial Production**: Expected to soften to 5.4% YoY in June, down from 5.8% YoY in May [3][16] - **Retail Sales**: Anticipated to moderate to 6% YoY in June, slightly down from 6.4% YoY in May [23] - **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: Overall FAI growth likely recorded 3% YoY in June, with property investment declining by 10-12% YoY [20] - **Exports and Imports**: Export growth expected to edge down to 4% YoY in June, while imports may improve to 1% YoY [23] Sector-Specific Insights - **Manufacturing Sector**: NBS manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2ppt to 49.7 in June, with improvements in new orders and production indices [7][10] - **Property Sector**: The property market continues to weaken, with significant declines in sales and new starts [9][19] - **Automotive Sector**: Auto retail sales growth picked up to 24% YoY in June, driven by a low base and trade-in subsidies [23][38] High-Frequency Data - **PMIs**: NBS non-manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.5 in June, indicating slight growth in services, while construction PMI improved significantly [8] - **Port Activities**: Port cargo throughput growth moderated to 1% YoY in June, reflecting a slowdown in trade activities [9][17] - **Credit Growth**: Total social financing (TSF) credit growth likely edged up to 8.8% YoY in June, with new RMB loans at approximately RMB 1.85 trillion [30][31]

President Trump announced a US-Vietnam trade deal ab 3 July 2025 Global Research APAC Economic Perspectives The US - Vietnam trade deal US President Trump announced that he has made a "Trade Deal with Vietnam" on 2 July 2025 through his social media channel, with details to follow. Subsequently, President Trump released that "the terms are that Vietnam will pay the US a 20% tariff on any and all goods sent into our territory, and a 40% tariff on any transshipping. In return, Vietnam will do something that t ...