Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has upgraded the outlook of UBS Group AG to Positive from Stable, affirming its long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A' and UBS AG's and UBS Switzerland AG's at 'A+' due to the successful integration of Credit Suisse and expected improvements in profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Integration and Execution Risk - Execution risk for UBS is expected to decline as the integration of Credit Suisse progresses, with minimal residual risk anticipated after client migration and system decommissioning, expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [2]. - UBS has effectively managed integration risks over the past two years, preventing operational disruptions and maintaining a prudent risk culture, with the wind-down of non-core assets ahead of schedule [3]. Group 2: Business Model and Profitability - The integration of Credit Suisse is projected to enhance UBS's business model by increasing scale and diversifying revenue, supporting its strategy and leadership in global wealth management [4]. - Fitch anticipates UBS's profitability will recover to pre-acquisition levels by 2026, with the operating profit/risk-weighted assets ratio expected to rise from 0.2% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027 [5]. Group 3: Financial Strength and Stability - UBS's capital position remains robust, with a CET1 ratio expected to exceed the medium-term guidance of 14% until integration completion, and it maintains one of the highest Basel leverage ratios among European banks [6]. - The liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) was reported at 181% in Q1 2025, indicating a stable funding profile [6]. Group 4: Risk Management - UBS is expected to continue effectively managing integration risks, ensuring stable operations and minimizing disruptions, with a loans-to-deposits ratio improving to 83% in Q1 2025 [7]. - The bank's low impaired loans ratio of close to 1% reflects its prudent risk culture, significantly better than its European peers [7]. Group 5: Overall Outlook - The Positive Outlook from Fitch indicates expectations for UBS to restore profitability to pre-acquisition levels while maintaining strong asset quality, solid capital, and resilient funding [8]. - UBS's successful integration of Credit Suisse is anticipated to durably strengthen its business model, reinforcing its leading position in global wealth management [8].

Key Insights - UBS released the "2025 Global Family Office Report," summarizing insights from 317 single-family offices across over 30 markets, with an average net worth of $2.7 billion and average assets under management of $1.1 billion [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation - Family offices are focusing on structural growth, yield enhancement, and diversification, reducing cash holdings while increasing investments in developed market equities to capture long-term growth opportunities in AI and healthcare [3] - The average allocation of family offices to North America and Western Europe is nearly 80%, with U.S. family offices showing a historical peak in domestic allocation, indicating a significant withdrawal from international markets [4][20] - Family offices prioritize healthcare, electrification, and artificial intelligence in emerging technologies, with a high sensitivity to opportunities in both public and private markets [5] Group 2: Investment Risks and Management - The global trade war is identified as the largest investment risk for 2025, with family offices concerned about geopolitical conflicts, economic recession, and debt crises [6] - Family offices emphasize internal management functions, focusing on expertise, privacy, and control rather than cost considerations [7] Group 3: Succession Planning and Recruitment - Just over half of family offices have established wealth succession plans, but many do not prioritize this due to a perception of having ample time [8] - When hiring new employees, family offices prioritize trust and personality traits over educational background or qualifications [9] Group 4: Asset Allocation Trends - Family offices are increasing allocations to public equities and private debt, with 35% planning to adjust their strategic asset allocation in 2025, the second-highest rate recorded in six years [10] - The allocation to developed market equities is set to rise from 24% in 2023 to an average of 29% in 2025, while private debt allocation is expected to double from 2% to 5% [12][13] - Real estate allocations are increasing, with U.S. family offices raising their allocation from 10% to 18%, while Latin American and Southeast Asian family offices are reducing their allocations [15] Group 5: Emerging Markets and Geopolitical Concerns - Family offices are cautious about emerging markets, with allocations to emerging market equities at 4% and bonds at 3%, reflecting a trend of increased caution from U.S. and European family offices [18] - Geopolitical concerns are the primary barriers to investing in emerging markets, with 56% citing these as a significant risk [19] Group 6: Future Outlook - Family offices expect to increase allocations to developed market equities and private markets, with 46% planning to significantly or moderately increase their exposure to developed market stocks [23] - Long-term, private market allocations are expected to grow, with over one-third of family offices planning to increase private equity investments despite short-term challenges [24] - Attitudes towards real estate investments are mixed, with 29% of family offices anticipating growth while 19% expect declines [26]

Group 1 - The core strategy from UBS and Goldman Sachs is to buy consumer stocks while shorting housing-related sectors due to rising bond yields and concerns over U.S. fiscal outlook [1] - UBS's basket of consumer stocks has outperformed the S&P 500 index, rising nearly 28% since April 8, compared to the S&P 500's 17% increase [2] - Concerns over rising bond yields have led to a sell-off in U.S. equities, with disappointing auction results pushing yields to levels seen during market turmoil in April [1][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reports that low-income consumer stocks have reached a new high, with the ratio of low-income consumer stocks to housing stocks at its highest level since November 2023 [2] - The average gasoline price is near a three-year low, providing low-income households with more disposable income for consumption [5] - UBS's basket of U.S. housing stocks has declined by 3.5% since mid-May due to rising yield concerns [5] Group 3 - Options traders are betting on continued consumer demand resilience, particularly for stocks showing upward momentum [8] - The cost of options protecting against a 10% decline in the consumer staples sector ETF has decreased, indicating investor confidence in the sector [8] - The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF's options ratio has surged to its highest level since February 2024, reflecting increased investor interest [8]

本报记者孟珂 事实上，近段时间，外资机构竞相"唱多"中国股票。 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示，中国拥有充足的应对冲击的回旋空间。原因有四方面：一是 国内政策刺激拥有加码空间；二是整体社会民生仍具有承压能力；三是产业链集群优势，短期内难以被 取代；四是在下一阶段的科技革命中，中国具有巨大的科创潜力。 据统计，二季度以来，截至5月21日，共有349家外资机构密集调研A股上市公司。高盛、花旗、野村等 知名机构调研总次数均超过40次。电子、医药生物、机械设备等行业受到外资青睐程度位居前列。 景顺亚太区（日本除外）全球市场策略师赵耀庭表示，中国股票市场已基本回到4月初的水平。中国的 电动汽车电池、工程机械、家电和宠物食品公司等行业或将会从中受益。 "去年9月份以来，政策持续发力，A股市场高波动中显韧性。第一季度非金融板块同比盈利增长较多， 预期今年A股的盈利在每个季度都会有良性的回升，为市场增长提供基本面支撑。人工智能、高端制造 及新消费利好将逐步释放。在全球投资背景下，中国股市战略重要性提升，带来超额回报机遇。"房东 明说。 随着中美经贸高层会谈取得了积极成果，叠加国内政策层面的持续发力、制度环境的不断优化， ...

Group 1: Tariff and Economic Impact - UBS's Chief China Economist Wang Tao stated that US tariffs on China will remain high for an extended period, prompting the Chinese government to implement additional policies to support domestic consumption and infrastructure financing, estimated to be equivalent to 0.5% to 1% of GDP [1] - UBS raised its global economic growth forecast from 2.5% to 2.7% due to progress in US-China trade talks, although it anticipates a significant slowdown in US economic growth, projecting a decline from 2.5% to 0.9% by 2025 [2] - The economic loss for the US due to trade tariffs was initially estimated at 2.5% of GDP, equating to approximately $800 billion in tariff revenue, but has since improved to 1.5% of GDP following agreements to reduce tariffs [2] Group 2: Export and Manufacturing Trends - China's export data showed resilience in April, with a 20% decrease in exports to the US but a 20% increase in exports to ASEAN countries, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [4] - The manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.0%, indicating a contraction, influenced by high previous growth rates and external environment changes, while non-manufacturing indices remained in the expansion zone [4] - Companies are facing uncertainty due to increased tariffs from the US on multiple countries, leading to potential delays in decision-making and a trend towards diversifying production locations based on target markets [5] Group 3: Structural Opportunities and Supply Chain Adjustments - Wang Tao emphasized that despite external challenges, China can create new structural opportunities through reforms, openness, and technological advancements, facilitating a transition from an export-driven to a consumption and investment-driven economy [6] - The global supply chain is undergoing reconfiguration, with some supply chains potentially moving away from China; however, China is expected to utilize policy tools to adapt to higher tariffs and external changes [6] - Hong Kong is positioned uniquely to assist companies in adjusting their overseas strategies, particularly in financing and services, as European and Middle Eastern markets gain importance for Chinese exports [5][6]

尽管存在担忧，但在进行调查时，59%的家族办公室计划在2025年承担与2024年同等的投资组合风险， 并忠于其投资目标。然而，38%的受访者强调在管理投资组合风险时很难找到合适的风险抵消策略，而 29%的受访者指出，由于不稳定相关性等因素，避险资产仍有不可预测性。在此背景下，40%的受访者 认为更加依赖基金经理的选择和/或主动管理是增强组合分散投资的有效方式，其次方式为对冲基金 (31%)。几乎同样多的受访者(27%)正在增加持有非流动性资产，21%的受访者预计于未来五年内贵金属 的配置将大幅或适度增加。 瑞银财富管理策略客户部主管Benjamin Cavalli表示，在面对市场波动加剧、对全球经济衰退担忧、以 及4月初几乎前所未见的市场抛售之后，瑞银的最新报告正作出提醒世界各地的家族办公室正专注于为 下一代保护财富，因此他们的首要目标是追求长远并稳定的投资方法。 传承计划是许多亚太区家族办公室重视的一大议题。近六成亚太区家族办公室将让下一代参与董事会， 近一半的亚太区家族办公室(49%)将让下一代担任出任管理或执行职务，高于全球同行(31%)。 当被问及于未来12个月其财务目标将面临的威胁时，70%的家族办 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group AG is experiencing steady net interest income growth and is pursuing an expansion strategy, but faces legal issues and rising expenses that are concerning [1]. Group 1: Growth Drivers - UBS has expanded its geographical footprint through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, including the acquisition of Credit Suisse in June 2023, enhancing its capabilities in wealth and asset management [2]. - In April 2025, UBS formed a strategic partnership with 360 ONE WAM Ltd, acquiring a 4.95% share and selling its onshore Indian wealth business to 360 ONE, while continuing to serve clients in Singapore [3]. - UBS is making significant progress in integrating Credit Suisse, aiming for $13 billion in gross cost reductions by the end of 2026, having already merged 95 branches in Switzerland and migrated over 90% of client accounts outside Switzerland to UBS platforms [4]. Group 2: Financial Position - As of March 31, 2025, UBS maintains a strong capital position with a CET1 capital ratio of 14.3% and a CET1 leverage ratio of 4.4%, both exceeding management guidance [5]. - The company's net interest income (NII) has shown a 4.9% CAGR over the past four years, although it fell in Q1 2025 due to lower loan margins and deposit spreads, with expectations for improvement driven by repricing strategies and loan demand [6]. Group 3: Challenges - UBS faces significant legal challenges, including class action lawsuits from former Credit Suisse shareholders and a recent settlement of $511 million related to a U.S. Department of Justice tax probe, which will impact profitability [7]. - The company's expense base has been rising, with a CAGR of 14.3% over the past four years, driven by personnel, administrative expenses, and integration costs, which may affect near-term profitability [8]. Group 4: Market Performance - Over the past six months, UBS shares have gained 2.4%, underperforming the industry growth of 23.7% [10].

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group is negotiating compensation for clients who suffered losses from complex foreign exchange derivatives sold by the bank, exacerbated by U.S. President Trump's tariff actions that caused significant market volatility [1] Group 1: Client Impact - Hundreds of clients are affected, with some experiencing substantial losses, including clients from Switzerland [1] - Overall losses are estimated to reach hundreds of millions of Swiss francs [1] Group 2: UBS's Response - UBS stated that the majority of its clients hold diversified investment portfolios, which have performed relatively well during the current turbulent period [1] - The bank is working with clients to analyze potential unexpected impacts [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese companies are increasingly issuing overseas, with significant IPOs and large-scale placements in the Hong Kong market, indicating a recovery in the market [2][3] - UBS highlights that the successful placements of major projects like BYD and Xiaomi demonstrate the Hong Kong stock market's capability to support top-tier corporate financing and reflect the strong fundamentals of these companies [2] - The trend of A-share companies choosing to list in Hong Kong is driven by the institutional investor base and financing convenience offered by the Hong Kong market [3] Group 2 - UBS reports a downward trend in the AH premium index, which decreased from around 150 in early 2024 to 134.9 by May 25, 2025, indicating a shift in trading preferences towards H-shares among domestic investors [3] - The Hong Kong stock market remains attractive due to its low valuations and the need for international funds to diversify their investments, supported by its depth and liquidity [4] - There is an expectation of a continued trend of Chinese companies returning to the Hong Kong market for secondary listings, particularly among those that have been exclusively listed in the U.S. [3]

Core Insights - UBS reported a total market value of $540 billion in its Q1 2025 holdings, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [1][2] - The firm added 1,239 new stocks to its portfolio, increased holdings in 4,632 stocks, reduced holdings in 4,025 stocks, and completely sold out of 944 stocks [1][2] - The top ten holdings accounted for 14.36% of the total market value [1][2] Holdings Summary - The top five holdings include Apple (AAPL) with approximately 60.7 million shares valued at $13.49 billion (2.48% of the portfolio), Microsoft (MSFT) with about 32.9 million shares valued at $12.35 billion (2.27%), Nvidia (NVDA) with around 101.4 million shares valued at $10.99 billion (2.02%), Amazon (AMZN) with approximately 37.6 million shares valued at $7.15 billion (1.31%), and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with about 12.8 million shares valued at $7.14 billion (1.31%) [3][4] - Notably, SPY saw a significant increase in holdings by 27.95% compared to the previous quarter [3][4] Trading Activity - The turnover rate for the portfolio was 19.64%, with an alternative turnover rate of 8.64% [2] - The average holding period for the top 20 stocks was approximately 20.95 quarters, while the top 10 stocks had an average holding period of 21 quarters [2] Buying and Selling Trends - The top five purchases included SPDR S&P 500 ETF put options, iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF put options, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, SPDR Gold Shares ETF, and Berkshire Hathaway [4][6] - The top five sales included Microsoft, Apple, Google, Tesla, and iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF call options [5][6]