Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a high-level fluctuation, with several foreign financial giants expressing optimism about the future market performance [1][2]. Group 1: Goldman Sachs Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Chinese stock market is entering a slow bull market, expecting major indices to rise by approximately 30% by the end of 2027, driven by a 12% growth in earnings and a 5%-10% upward adjustment in valuations [2][4]. - The firm identifies four key supports for this sustained bull market: favorable policies, accelerated economic growth, low current valuations, and strong capital inflows [4][5]. - Investors are advised to shift their mindset from "selling high" to "buying low" as the bull market unfolds, focusing on growth stocks, particularly in sectors like AI and emerging private enterprises [6]. Group 2: JPMorgan Insights - JPMorgan maintains a positive outlook on the CSI 300 index, anticipating that the shift of household assets towards the stock market will sustain the rebound trend until the end of 2026 [7]. - The firm emphasizes the potential of the "anti-involution" theme and service consumption opportunities, which could lead to an investment boom over the next 18-24 months [7][8]. - JPMorgan also highlights that compared to developed markets, China's service consumption has significant room for growth, particularly in healthcare, financial services, and entertainment sectors [8]. Group 3: UBS Insights - UBS analysts believe the market outlook is positive in the medium term, with growth style likely remaining the main investment theme despite a recent shift towards value stocks [9]. - The firm attributes the recent market style changes to factors such as escalating US-China trade tensions and profit-taking in the tech sector, but expects these factors to have limited impact on medium-term trends [9][10]. - UBS suggests that the current risk-reward profile for investing in growth stocks, particularly in the ChiNext index, remains favorable [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite the complex global macro environment, investment opportunities in the Chinese market are becoming increasingly prominent, with a bullish outlook on the A-share market and a focus on technology and high-dividend strategies [2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The current bull market in A-shares is believed to be in its second phase, driven by fundamental improvements, with the starting point traced back to September 24 of last year [4]. - The bull market is compared to the "5·19行情" of 1999, indicating a similar macro policy-driven initiation during a period of market adjustment [4]. - The market is currently experiencing a phase where technology is the main focus, with value sectors like real estate and liquor showing potential for revaluation [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies recommended include focusing on high-quality assets amidst global economic slowdowns and adjusting allocations among stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies [9]. - Long-term investment areas highlighted include AI, energy, and health economics, particularly where AI intersects with health [12]. - The article suggests maintaining a position in gold as a hedge against market volatility, with expectations of a 5% price increase due to various supporting factors [9][13]. Group 3: Global Context - The article notes a trend of global diversification in investments, with long-term funds from Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East beginning to enter the Chinese market [12]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to influence global asset allocation, with a projected total of 75 basis points of cuts by the first quarter of next year [12].

Group 1 - UBS maintains an overweight rating on China within emerging markets, citing faster revenue and earnings growth compared to India, and improving capital return rates in the MSCI China index [1] - A-shares have experienced a style shift from "growth" to "value dividend" since October, influenced by US-China trade tensions and profit-taking in the tech sector, but the medium-term outlook for A-shares remains positive [1][3] - Foreign investors are closely monitoring China's 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly aspects related to "anti-involution," consumption promotion, high-quality growth, and the development of new productive forces [1][11] Group 2 - A-shares are showing structural differentiation, with major indices fluctuating, but foreign investors believe there is still high allocation value in the market despite recent tariff impacts [3][4] - The market's sensitivity to US-China trade tensions has decreased, and there is an expectation of policy measures to stabilize the market if significant volatility occurs [4] - Foreign investors favor industry leaders, with significant holdings in companies like Kweichow Moutai, Ping An, and Wuliangye, indicating a preference for stable, high-quality stocks [6][7] Group 3 - Foreign investors are increasing their positions in leading stocks, with notable increases in holdings for companies like Siyi Electric and Hai Da Group during the third quarter [8][6] - UBS expresses a preference for A-shares over H-shares due to their defensive nature against geopolitical tensions, maintaining a focus on growth styles as the main investment theme [10] - The upcoming policies in the 14th Five-Year Plan are expected to create potential opportunities in "anti-involution" and service consumption, which could drive cyclical improvements in various industries [12]

四位大咖把脉全球资产配置。 10月21日，中共深圳市委金融委员会、福田区人民政府指导，中国保险资产管理业协会特别支持，由深 圳市财富管理协会主办的2025香蜜湖财富管理周·湾区财富管理高质量发展交流会在深圳举行。 在交流会上，中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长彭文生，国信证券首席经济学 家、经济研究所所长荀玉根，摩根士丹利首席中国股票策略师王滢和瑞银财富管理大中华区投资总监及 亚太区宏观经济主管胡一帆，四位顶级机构经济学家就全球宏观环境与中国市场投资机会发表最新观 点。 多位经济学家认为，在全球投资多元化趋势明显的背景下，中国资产尤其是科技领域正迎来重估机会， 而黄金作为避险工具仍具配置价值。 中金彭文生：风险溢价下降推动A股上涨 中金公司首席经济学家彭文生在主题演讲中表示，今年A股市场表现强劲，持续上涨，不是来自于企业 盈利的改善，而是主要源于风险溢价下降，反映市场对未来预期已明显改善。 "去年9月以来，宏观政策变化，加上今年初DeepSeek的出现，对中国资产重估，推动资金转向股票等风 险资产，尤其是配置科技领域。"彭文生分析道。 彭文生分析，在新的地缘政治格局下，中国面临两个方面的挑战。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the perspectives of four leading economists on global asset allocation and investment opportunities in China, particularly in the technology sector and gold as a safe-haven asset [2]. Group 1: Economic Perspectives - CICC's chief economist, Peng Wensheng, attributes the strong performance of the A-share market to a decrease in risk premium rather than improvements in corporate earnings, indicating a significant improvement in market expectations since last year [5]. - Guosen Securities' chief economist, Xun Yugen, believes the current bull market began on September 24, 2024, and compares it to the "5.19 Bull Market" of 1999, suggesting that the current market is still in its early stages [7]. - Xun Yugen also emphasizes that the bull market is driven by fundamentals, particularly in the technology sector, and suggests a rotation towards undervalued sectors like real estate and consumer goods [10]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in China - Morgan Stanley's chief China equity strategist, Wang Ying, notes that global investors have a relatively low allocation to Chinese stocks, indicating a trend towards increasing investment in high-tech sectors such as AI and automation [11]. - Wang Ying forecasts that global GDP growth will slow from 3.0% in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026, with inflation rates expected to remain stable, providing central banks with policy flexibility [14]. Group 3: Global Monetary Policy and Gold - UBS's Hu Yifan highlights the global trend of declining interest rates, which, along with strong corporate earnings and advancements in AI, presents new investment opportunities [16]. - There is a consensus among economists regarding the value of gold in asset allocation, with Wang Ying predicting at least a 5% increase in gold prices due to historical performance during rate-cutting cycles and geopolitical uncertainties [20]. - Hu Yifan supports the view that holding gold is a good strategy for diversifying investments and hedging against risks, especially in light of the recent depreciation of the US dollar [21]. Group 4: Global Market Differentiation - In terms of global stock market allocation, Morgan Stanley suggests an equal-weight strategy but notes significant regional differentiation, favoring the US market for its scale and quality [24]. - The firm recommends focusing on high-quality stocks and cyclical stocks in the US while being cautious about trade uncertainties that could lead to market volatility [24]. - For emerging markets, Morgan Stanley prefers domestically oriented companies and financial stocks, avoiding exporters and semiconductor hardware firms [25].

瑞银(UBS.US)美股盘前跌1.75%。消息上，香港证监会对瑞银作出谴责，并处以罚款800万港元，原因 是UBS的内部系统及监控措施存在缺失，导致其在逾十二年间未能确保对客户的专业投资者身分作出准 确分类。 | UBS 瑞银 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 38.360 4 -0.130 -0.34% | | 收盘价 10/20 15:59 美东 | | 37.690 ↓ -0.670 -1.75% | | 盘前价 10/21 04:52 美东 | | = 7 24 15 m + 日 = = 日 = | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 38.360 | 开盘价 38.130 | 成交量 284.58万 | | 最低价 38.070 | 昨收价 38.490 | 成交额 1.09亿 | | 平均价 38.221 | 市盈率TM 20.30 | 总市值 1215.7亿 (m) | | 振 幅 0.75% | 市盈率(静) 25.24 | 总股本 31.69亿 | | 换手率 0.09% | 市净率 1.361 | 流通值 1209.74亿 | | 52周最高 42.565 | 委 比 ...

瑞银预计日本央行将在1月份将政策利率上调25个基点，但不排除12月份加息的可能性。 （文章来源：新华财经） 他表示，日本的实际利率为负值，这使得金融环境非常宽松。通胀动态似乎支持央行应该减少宽松政策 的观点，理由是预计长期通胀预期将不断向2.0%上升。他还预计政府将寻求财政扩张，这可能意味着 更高的通胀压力。 新华财经北京10月21日电瑞银全球研究的首席日本经济学家Masamichi Adachi在评论中表示，日本央行 在未来几个月内加息似乎是有根据的。 ...

本报讯 （记者毛艺融）10月20日，瑞银集团（以下简称"瑞银"）宣布赞助第二十八届北京国际音乐节 （"BMF"），延续20多年来对中国音乐事业发展所秉持的长期承诺。本届音乐节以"未来传统·刹那新 声"为主题，寓意于瞬息之声中承续永恒之道，彰显双方长期致力于涵养文化底蕴、促进艺术交流与推 动社会参与的共同愿景。 除音乐会之外，瑞银亦将于北京英蓝国际金融中心中庭举办一系列面向员工与社群的活动，深化与本地 社群的交流与联结。 2025年的音乐节恰逢中瑞建交七十五周年的重要时刻。瑞银中国区总裁胡知鸷表示："中国是瑞银的重 要市场。作为一家瑞士企业，我们不仅致力于推动双向金融交流，连接资本与创新，也同样在坚定不移 地推动中国与世界的文化对话。瑞银与北京国际音乐节的长期合作正是这一承诺的生动体现。我们携手 培育创意、促进文化交流，并支持本地社群的音乐教育。" ...

Companies on deck to go public in the US are powering forward with unconventional IPO plans despite the lingering government shutdown, taking many on Wall Street by surprise.Travel software startup Navan Inc. and electric plane-maker Beta Technologies Inc., two candidates for initial public offerings before the November Thanksgiving holiday, offer contrasting examples of why the fix offered by the shuttered regulator – a 20-day marketing period – is growing in popularity, with three more companies late Frid ...

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