Rather than leaving most of last year’s $1.2 trillion windfall in the hands of the central bank, some two-thirds of the foreign assets sourced primarily from global trade ended up with companies, individuals and state lenders. That brings with it the risk of a sudden capital reversal that China doesn’t immediately control, especially in a world where the yuan is allowed to strengthen.Investors comprising China’s so-called non-official sector saw their holdings of assets abroad soar by more than $1 trillion ...

Swiss bank UBS is a step closer to getting a national bank charter for its U.S. franchise after receiving a first conditional approval, the company said on Thursday. ...

UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti hopes his successor will be a candidate from within the bank, he told Swiss newspaper Tages-Anzeiger in an interview published on Thursday. ...

2026 年 1 月 13 日至 14 日，瑞银集团在上海举办第 26 届瑞银大中华研讨会（GCC）。本届研讨会 以"新前沿：识变局,，谋增长"为主题，吸引超过3600名与会者，其中包括2300余位来自全球的机构投 资者、主权财富基金、家族办公室代表及私人投资者。大会期间，超过300家领先的中国企业也参与交 流，相关企业合计市值约为 4.3 万亿美元。 瑞银集团首席执行官安思杰 (Sergio P. Ermotti) 在上海为今年的研讨会致欢迎辞。他表示："中国是瑞银 集团的战略市场之一。中国经济展现出的韧性，在先进制造、人工智能等领域不断释放的创新动能，以 及其稳步提升的资本市场全球影响力都为全球投资者带来了新的机遇。大中华研讨会为客户提供了洞察 中国未来增长趋势的前瞻性窗口——这也体现了瑞银持续推动全球资本与中国发展机遇深度连接的长期 承诺。" 2025 年，中国跨境资本市场活动明显回暖，国际机构投资者持续加码配置中国股票。与此同时，中国 内地企业赴港上市步伐加快，截至2025年12月底，中国香港市场共有111家中国内地企业完成首次公开 发行（IPO），发行后合计市值达5623亿美元。 瑞银集团中国区总裁 ...

Group 1 - The A-share ETF market has seen record trading volumes, with a peak of 7,155.35 billion yuan on January 14, followed by 7,492 billion yuan, marking two consecutive days of record highs [1] - Several broad-based ETFs have significantly increased their trading volumes, including the CSI 500 ETF and the CSI 300 ETF, each exceeding 25 billion yuan, while other ETFs surpassed 10 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Global investors are refocusing on China, as indicated by a 10% year-on-year increase in attendance at UBS's Greater China Conference, with a 32% increase in attendees from outside the Asia-Pacific region [2][4] - This renewed interest is not driven by short-term sentiment but is based on a reassessment of growth structures and asset logic [3] Group 3 - Foreign capital is increasingly reflected in fund flows, with the allocation of Chinese assets in the portfolios of the top 40 global investment institutions reaching a new high in 2023 [4] - Active overseas funds are beginning to increase their holdings in Chinese assets, with both trading and allocation funds showing increased activity [5] Group 4 - UBS forecasts that A-share earnings growth will further improve by 2026, with a shift from reliance on the financial sector to non-financial enterprises, closely linked to nominal GDP recovery and industrial policy adjustments [6] - The current market is characterized by a structural recovery in earnings and low credit levels, indicating a long-term bullish trend for A-shares, supported by fundamental improvements and ample liquidity [6]

Core Insights - The 26th UBS Greater China Conference (GCC) commenced on January 12, 2026, focusing on the theme "New Frontiers: Recognizing Changes, Seeking Growth" [2] - The conference serves as a premier financial forum for discussing significant viewpoints, trends, and challenges in China's development, attracting over 3,600 participants, including more than 2,300 global institutional investors and executives from 300 Chinese listed and private companies [5] Group 1 - The conference emphasizes the role of the Asia-Pacific and Greater China as key players in global wealth creation, with expectations that they will become the strongest engines for wealth generation in the next five years [6] - UBS has been deeply rooted in the Chinese mainland market for over 35 years and has 60 years of experience in the Hong Kong market, positioning itself at the intersection of domestic and international capital market demands [7] - The conference featured insights from UBS executives on the outlook for the Chinese stock market and investment opportunities, highlighting the increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets amid a global focus on diversified investments [10] Group 2 - The conference aims to provide thought leadership and deep dialogue to help investors make better decisions, whether seizing short-term opportunities or planning for long-term growth [6] - The CEO of UBS, Sergio P. Ermotti, noted the growing interest of international investors in participating more comprehensively in the Chinese market, with a 32% year-on-year increase in attendees from the US, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa [7] - UBS anticipates that the Chinese capital market will play a greater role in supporting technological innovation and growth transformation, with strong innovation momentum and supportive policies expected to sustain the stock market's performance [10]

1月13日至14日，瑞银集团在上海举办第26届瑞银大中华研讨会(GCC)。本届研讨会以"新前沿：识变 局，谋增长"为主题，吸引了超过3600名与会者，包括2300余位来自全球的机构投资者、主权财富基 金、家族办公室代表及私人投资者。 瑞银集团首席执行官安思杰(Sergio P.Ermotti)在会上表示，来自海外的客户人数有所增加，彰显出亚太 地区的重要地位以及市场对中国的关注度回升。中国是瑞银集团的战略市场之一。中国经济展现出的韧 性，在先进制造、人工智能等领域不断释放的创新动能，以及其稳步提升的资本市场全球影响力都为全 球投资者带来了新的机遇。 2025年，中国跨境资本市场活动明显回暖，国际机构投资者持续加码配置中国股票。截至2025年第三季 度，外资整体低配幅度已由2024年第三季度的-2.5%收窄至-1.3%，低配程度同比降低48%。与此同时， 内地企业赴港上市步伐加快，截至2025年12月底，香港市场共有111家内地企业完成首次公开发行 (IPO)，发行后合计市值达5623亿美元。 瑞银集团中国区总裁胡知鸷也提到，在中国培育新增长动能的背景下，国际投资者希望更全面地参与中 国市场——本届研讨会上，来 ...

2025年，中国跨境资本市场活动明显回暖，国际机构投资者持续加码配置中国股票。截至2025年第三季度，外 资整体低配幅度已由2024年第三季度的-2.5%收窄至-1.3%，低配程度同比降低48%。与此同时，内地企业赴港 上市步伐加快，截至2025年12月底，香港市场共有111家内地企业完成首次公开发行（IPO），发行后合计市 值达5623亿美元。 1月13日至14日，瑞银集团在上海举办第26届瑞银大中华研讨会（GCC）。本届研讨会以"新前沿：识变 局，谋增长"为主题，吸引了超过3600名与会者，包括2300余位来自全球的机构投资者、主权财富基金、家 族办公室代表及私人投资者。 瑞银集团首席执行官安思杰（Sergio P. Ermotti）在会上表示，来自海外的客户人数有所增加，彰显出亚太地区 的重要地位以及市场对中国的关注度回升。中国是瑞银集团的战略市场之一。中国经济展现出的韧性，在先进 制造、人工智能等领域不断释放的创新动能，以及其稳步提升的资本市场全球影响力都为全球投资者带来了新 的机遇。 他判断，整体盈利的提高叠加上估值的复苏，会带动今年A股市场整体进一步上行。在风格上看好成长，因为 历史上来看，市场上 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The document discusses the global economic outlook, focusing on macroeconomic forecasts and investment strategies across various asset classes, including equities, fixed income, and foreign exchange. Core Economic Insights - **US Core CPI Forecast**: An expected increase of 44 basis points in December, with year-over-year inflation rising from 2.6% to 2.9%. Projections suggest core inflation could reach 3.2% by May [3][4] - **Global Economic Growth**: Projected real GDP growth for 2026 is 3.2% globally, with the US at 2.1%, China at 4.5%, and the Eurozone at 1.1% [8] - **Impact of AI**: AI is driving significant investment growth in the US, contributing to half of global trade growth and most equity returns [8] Investment Strategies - **Equities**: The luxury sector has been upgraded to overweight for the first time in four years due to improved earnings growth expectations and favorable valuation metrics [13] - **Emerging Markets**: China, Brazil, and local debt in emerging markets are expected to outperform, supported by anticipated housing stimulus in China [5][14] - **Fixed Income**: Long positions in US 10-year Treasuries are maintained, with expectations of spread tightening between US 30-year bonds and SOFR [9][10] Currency and Trade Recommendations - **FX Trades**: Recommendations include long USDJPY, short EURAUD, and selling rallies in EURSEK and EURNOK. A dual digital trade is suggested to capture GBP and EUR strength against the USD [4][12] - **Interest Rate Forecasts**: Expected yields for 10-year bonds by the end of 2026 are projected at 4.00% for US Treasuries and 3.00% for Bunds [12][19] Market Sentiment and Risks - **Consumer Sentiment**: Improved consumer sentiment is noted, with a supportive push from the US administration towards housing affordability [16] - **Default Rates**: Default rates for high-yield and leveraged loans are converging, indicating potential fragility in the market [16] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing US policy uncertainty and potential geopolitical events pose risks to market stability and asset returns [20] Additional Insights - **Valuation Metrics**: The luxury sector's price-to-earnings ratios are close to normal levels, indicating potential for growth as high-end luxury remains less disrupted [13] - **Commodity Prices**: Expectations of stronger housing stimulus in China are supporting commodity prices, despite some markets being technically overbought [5][14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook, investment strategies, and market sentiment while addressing potential risks and opportunities in various sectors.

要真正改变这个问题，巩旻说，必须提升行业集中度。 过去几年，汽车行业在高速发展中也面临挑战，整体行业利润率维持在约4.4%的较低水平；超过半数 经销商处于亏损状态；乘用车均价同比呈下降趋势。这表明市场扩张的同时，行业正经历利润重构与格 局调整的阵痛。 近日，罗兰贝格发布的《预见2026》报告也指出，与CR10（前十位企业市占率）普遍超过90%的发达 国家市场相比，中国汽车市场的整合仍存较大空间。诚然，整车淘汰赛已在稳步提速，但由于各方势力 仍在持续调整战略、弥补短板，这场淘汰赛很可能将陷入持久战。 瑞银此次也提到了对2026年汽车行业的预测。一方面，行业仍面临购置税退坡、置换补贴调整及原材料 价格上涨等挑战。但巩旻同时表示，瑞银倾向于预测，在诸多挑战下，今年国内车市批发端可能是低个 位数下跌，零售端是中个位数下跌。此外，瑞银还预测，新能源车在今年会有8%的增长。 "过去这些年，因为大家对行业高增速的预期、资本市场的支持等，行业内成立了太多的车企。好处是 竞争带来的创新推动了技术进步，让我们当前拥有了产业链成本优势。但坏处是'内卷'加剧，大家要赚 钱都辛苦，甚至还出现了无序竞争损害消费者权益的情况。之后我们必须 ...