Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) experienced a significant pre-market surge, rising over 11% following the release of its third-quarter earnings report, which exceeded market expectations [1] Financial Performance - The company reported third-quarter revenue of $21.4 billion, surpassing the forecast of $20.87 billion [1] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.74, exceeding the expected $1.32 [1] - For the fourth quarter, UPS anticipates revenue of approximately $24 billion, compared to the market estimate of $23.87 billion [1]

格隆汇10月28日｜UPS：三季度营收214亿美元，预估208.7亿美元；经调整后每股收益1.74美元，预估 1.32美元。预计第四季度营收约为240亿美元，市场预估238.7亿美元。 ...

Corporate Earnings - The third-quarter corporate earnings season is underway, with major companies like Visa, UnitedHealth Group, Booking, UPS, and PayPal set to report [1] - S&P 500 companies are expected to see an average earnings increase of +7.2% for Q3 compared to the previous year, marking the smallest rise in two years [1] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the Fed funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the lowest since late 2022 [2] - Investors are keenly awaiting Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for insights on future interest rate movements [2] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street's main stock indexes closed at record highs, with notable gains from Tesla (+4%) and Nvidia (+2%) [3] - Qualcomm surged over +11% after launching new chips for the AI data center market, while Avidity Biosciences soared more than +42% following an acquisition by Novartis valued at approximately $12 billion [3] Economic Data - The U.S. Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is expected to decline to 93.4 in October from 94.2 in September [6] - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is forecasted to improve to -11 in October from -17 previously [7] Bond Market - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is currently at 3.973%, down -0.58% [8] International Markets - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.18% as investors react to corporate earnings reports, with German consumer sentiment expected to weaken [9] - Asian stock markets, including China's Shanghai Composite Index and Japan's Nikkei 225, closed lower amid profit-taking and geopolitical concerns [10][11][12] Pre-Market Movers - UPS rose over +9% in pre-market trading after reporting stronger-than-expected Q3 results and issuing above-consensus Q4 revenue guidance [13] - UnitedHealth Group increased more than +4% following better-than-expected Q3 results and an upward revision of its full-year adjusted EPS guidance [13]

Financial Performance - UPS's third-quarter profit topped Wall Street's estimates [1] Strategic Initiatives - The courier's plan to reshape its delivery network starts to show results [1]

Revenue Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $21,415 million, a decrease of $830 million or 3.7% compared to Q3 2024[2] - U.S. Domestic Package revenue decreased by $377 million or 2.6% to $14,220 million, while International Package revenue increased by $262 million or 5.9% to $4,673 million[2] - Total revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $64,182 million, a decrease of $1,587 million or 2.4% compared to $65,769 million in 2024[9] - U.S. Domestic Package revenue decreased by $301 million or 0.7% to $42,763 million, while International Package revenue increased by $494 million or 3.8% to $13,531 million[12] - Supply Chain Solutions revenue fell by $715 million or 22.1% to $2,522 million, primarily due to a significant drop in Forwarding revenue[2] - Supply Chain Solutions revenue fell by $1,780 million or 18.4% to $7,888 million, primarily due to a significant drop in Forwarding revenue[12] Profitability Metrics - Operating profit for Q3 2025 was $1,804 million, down $181 million or 9.1% from $1,985 million in Q3 2024[2] - Net income for Q3 2025 was $1,311 million, a decline of $228 million or 14.8% compared to $1,539 million in Q3 2024[2] - Operating profit for the total company was $5,292 million, down $250 million or 4.5% from $5,542 million in the previous year[9] - Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $3,781 million, a decline of $280 million or 6.9% compared to $4,061 million in 2024[9] - Basic earnings per share decreased to $4.46, down $0.28 or 5.9% from $4.74 in the prior year[9] - Non-GAAP adjusted operating profit for Q3 2025 was $2.132 billion, with a non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of 10.0%, compared to 8.9% in Q3 2024[22] - Non-GAAP Adjusted Operating Profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $5,771 million, with an operating margin of 9.0%[38] Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses for Q3 2025 were $19,611 million, down $649 million or 3.2% from $20,260 million in Q3 2024[2] - Total operating expenses were $58,890 million, a reduction of $1,337 million or 2.2% from $60,227 million in 2024[14] - U.S. Domestic Package Operating Expenses decreased by 1.0% to $13,617 million, with an operating profit of $603 million, down 28.5% year-over-year[33] - International Package Operating Expenses increased by 10.6% to $3,997 million, with an operating profit of $676 million, down 15.3% year-over-year[33] - Supply Chain Solutions Operating Expenses decreased significantly by 31.0% to $1,997 million, with an operating profit of $525 million, up 52.6% year-over-year[33] Volume and Pricing - Average Daily Package Volume decreased by 2,108 thousand or 9.8% to 19,419 thousand in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024[5] - Average Daily Package Volume decreased by 1,246 thousand packages or 5.9% to 19,974 thousand packages[12] - The average revenue per piece for U.S. Domestic Package increased by 9.8% to $13.47 in Q3 2025 from $12.27 in Q3 2024[5] - The average revenue per piece for U.S. Domestic Package increased by 6.5% to $13.18, reflecting improved pricing strategies[12] - U.S. Domestic Package Cost Per Piece (GAAP) increased by 12.3% to $12.92, while Non-GAAP Adjusted Cost Per Piece increased by 10.4% to $12.63[35] - U.S. Domestic Package Cost Per Piece (GAAP) rose to $12.43 in 2025, a 7.2% increase from $11.59 in 2024[55] - Non-GAAP Adjusted Cost Per Piece for U.S. Domestic Package was $12.30 in 2025, reflecting a 6.4% increase from $11.56 in 2024[55] Cash Flow and Assets - Free cash flow for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was $2.744 billion, a decline of 32% from $4.038 billion in the same period of 2024[20] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to $6.764 billion at the end of Q3 2025, up from $6.112 billion at the beginning of the period[18] - Total assets increased to $71.392 billion as of September 30, 2025, compared to $70.070 billion on December 31, 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.9%[16] - Total current liabilities decreased to $14.552 billion as of September 30, 2025, from $16.441 billion at the end of 2024, a reduction of 11.5%[16] Transformation and Strategy Costs - The company incurred total transformation strategy costs of $328 million in Q3 2025, up from $154 million in Q3 2024[22] - Total Transformation Strategy Costs for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, were $460 million, up from $227 million in 2024[38] - Transformation Strategy Costs for U.S. Domestic Package were $400 million in 2025, compared to $93 million in 2024[53] Other Income and Gains - Total other income (expense) was $(197) million, a decline of $122 million or 162.7% compared to $(75) million in Q3 2024[2] - The company reported a total other income (expense) of $(500) million, an increase in expense of $273 million or 120.3% compared to $(227) million in 2024[9] - The company reported a pre-tax gain of $20 million on the divestiture of a business within Supply Chain Solutions[48] - A pre-tax gain of $156 million was recorded from the divestiture of the Coyote Logistics business in 2024[50] - The company recorded a pre-tax one-time payment of $88 million related to an international regulatory matter in 2024[50]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) anticipates fourth-quarter revenue to exceed Wall Street's expectations, driven by price increases to counteract weak business-to-business demand in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - UPS is forecasting fourth-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates [1] - The company is relying on price increases to mitigate soft demand in the business-to-business sector [1] - The focus is on addressing challenges in the U.S. market [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed mixed movements following a positive trading session on Monday, where benchmark indices reached new records due to successful trade negotiations with China [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a decision on interest rates, with a 97.8% likelihood of a cut in the October meeting [2] - Major indices' futures showed slight declines for Dow Jones and S&P 500, while Nasdaq 100 saw a minor increase [2] Company Earnings and Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to report earnings of $1.31 per share on revenue of $20.83 billion, with a short-term stronger price trend but weaker medium and long-term trends [5] - UnitedHealth Group (UNH) anticipates earnings of $2.81 per share on revenue of $113.06 billion, showing a strong medium and short-term price trend but weaker long-term performance [5] - Cameco Corp. (CCJ) rose 9.67% and Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) advanced 3.52% after announcing a partnership with the U.S. Government for $80 billion in new nuclear reactors, maintaining a strong price trend [5] - 3D Systems Corp. (DDD) gained 9.45% due to significant milestones in its Saudi joint venture, indicating a strong price trend across all time frames [5] - Waste Management Inc. (WM) shares dropped 2.51% after reporting weaker-than-expected third-quarter results, maintaining a poor growth ranking [6] Sector Performance - Information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors recorded the biggest gains, contributing to a positive close for most sectors on the S&P 500 [7] - Consumer staples and materials sectors, however, closed lower, bucking the overall market trend [7] Analyst Insights - Professor Jeremy Siegel highlighted robust corporate profits as a key driver for the market, expecting a 25-basis point cut from the Federal Open Market Committee [9] - Siegel noted that earnings are strong and the real economy looks good, despite some tariff-related price noise being temporary [10] - Cautious market sentiment persists, with positioning remaining hedged and skeptical, which Siegel views as a healthy sign for future growth [11]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures showed mixed movements following a positive trading session on Monday, where benchmark indices reached new records due to successful trade negotiations with China [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a decision on interest rates, with a 97.8% likelihood of a cut in the October meeting [2] - Major indices' futures showed slight declines for Dow Jones and S&P 500, while Nasdaq 100 saw a minor increase [2] Company Earnings and Performance - United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to report earnings of $1.31 per share on revenue of $20.83 billion, with a short-term strong price trend but weak medium and long-term trends [5] - UnitedHealth Group (UNH) anticipates earnings of $2.81 per share on revenue of $113.06 billion, showing a strong medium and short-term price trend but weaker long-term performance [5] - Cameco Corp. (CCJ) rose 9.67% and Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) advanced 3.52% after announcing a partnership with the U.S. Government for $80 billion in new nuclear reactors, maintaining a strong price trend [5] - 3D Systems Corp. (DDD) gained 9.45% due to significant milestones in its Saudi joint venture, indicating a strong price trend across all time frames [5] - Waste Management Inc. (WM) shares fell 2.51% after reporting weaker-than-expected third-quarter results, maintaining a poor growth ranking [6] Sector Performance - Information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors recorded the biggest gains, contributing to a positive close for most sectors on the S&P 500 [7] - Consumer staples and materials sectors, however, closed lower, bucking the overall market trend [7] Analyst Insights - Professor Jeremy Siegel highlighted robust corporate profits as a key driver for the market, expecting a 25-basis point cut from the Federal Open Market Committee [9] - Siegel noted that earnings are strong and the real economy looks good, despite some tariff-related price noise being temporary [10] - Sentiment remains cautious, with positioning still hedged, which Siegel views as a healthy sign for the market's future [11]

Core Viewpoint - The global shipper is experiencing a decline in sales and earnings due to reduced domestic volumes and increased labor costs, leading to investor demand for a turnaround [1] Group 1: Sales and Earnings - The company's sales and earnings are down, indicating a challenging financial environment [1] - The decline is attributed to lower domestic shipping volumes, which have negatively impacted revenue [1] Group 2: Labor Costs - Higher labor costs are contributing to the overall decrease in earnings, suggesting increased operational expenses [1] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors are seeking a turnaround, highlighting the pressure on the company to improve its financial performance [1]

Group 1 - United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is currently experiencing stock price fluctuations, with potential movement from $87 to $100 in a good quarter and down to $80 in a bad quarter, indicating a decent risk-reward scenario [1] - The company provides a range of logistics services, including express shipping, freight forwarding, customs brokerage, and supply chain solutions [2] - There is a belief that UPS stock is attempting to find a bottom, although there are concerns regarding its large dividend and the need for financial flexibility [2] Group 2 - Comparatively, other companies like FedEx and J.B. Hunt are favored over UPS, suggesting a preference for alternative investments within the transportation sector [2] - The article suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk compared to UPS, indicating a shift in investment focus [2]