Upstart (UPST 9.57%) has been on a major upswing as of late. Since early August, shares of this artificial intelligence (AI)-powered lending platform have skyrocketed 92% (as of Dec. 11), driven by seriously improving market sentiment.While that gain makes this fintech stock a better performer than the Nasdaq Composite Index, Upstart still trades an alarming 80% below its all-time high from late 2021. If you're considering buying the dip, take the time to know these three things about Upstart first.1. Tryin ...

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) stock is experiencing a surge of 9.2%, reaching $84.20, following an upgrade from Needham to "buy" from "hold" [1] - Needham cited a better funding balance and set a price target of $100, a level not seen since 2022 [1] - The stock is nearing its two-year high of $86.07, supported by the ascending 20-day moving average, and has a year-to-date gain of 102.4% [1] Group 2 - Options traders are actively engaging with Upstart stock, with 42,000 calls and 21,000 puts exchanged, which is triple the typical options volume [2] - The most popular options contract is the weekly 12/13 85-strike call, with new positions being opened [2] - Despite a reduction in short interest, it still represents 27% of the stock's available float, indicating potential buying power for further upward momentum [2]

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Upstart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool. ...

The shares of artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) are down 13.9% at $67.83 at last glance, after a downgrade from J.P. Morgan Securities to "underweight" from "neutral," though the firm also added a price-target hike to $57 from $45. The analyst in coverage expects the funding environment to improve in 2025. Pacing for its worst single-day percentage loss since February, Upstart stock is pulling back from its Nov. 11, two-year high of $86.07. Shares are testin ...

Core Viewpoint - Upstart has rebounded from a significant decline in stock price due to its innovative AI-driven loan origination platform, which is positioned to capture a substantial market opportunity in the lending industry [1][3][14]. Company Overview - Upstart went public in December 2020 at $20 per share and saw its stock price surge to $401 within a year due to low interest rates [1]. - The stock price fell 97% to around $12 in 2022 as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, reducing consumer demand for loans [2]. - As of now, Upstart's stock price has recovered to approximately $78, though it remains 80% below its all-time high [3]. AI-Driven Lending Transformation - Upstart's AI algorithm evaluates 1,600 metrics to assess borrower creditworthiness, significantly improving the speed and accuracy of loan decisions compared to traditional methods [5]. - The company automates 91% of loan decisions, allowing for a more efficient process [5]. - Upstart's AI model, Model 18, makes 1 million predictions per applicant, enhancing the fairness and accuracy of interest rate determinations [6]. Market Position and Growth - Upstart's AI approach enables it to approve double the number of loans compared to traditional methods, with interest rates approximately 38% lower on average [7]. - The company has expanded its offerings beyond unsecured personal loans to include secured car lending and home equity lines of credit (HELOC) [8]. - Demand for loans is increasing as interest rates decline, which is beneficial for Upstart's growth [8]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Upstart originated 186,786 unsecured personal loans, a 65% increase year-over-year, and 1,080 car loans, which was up 53% from the previous quarter [11]. - The company reported total revenue of $162 million in Q3 2024, a 20% increase from the same period last year, marking its highest quarterly revenue for the year [13]. - Upstart is projected to achieve $587.5 million in total revenue for 2024, a 14% increase from 2023, with further growth expected to $812.7 million in 2025, representing a 35% growth rate [15]. Valuation Metrics - Upstart's current price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 12.4, above its long-term average of 8.9, but the forward P/S ratio based on 2025 revenue forecasts is 8.8, slightly below its average [16]. - The company has identified a $3 trillion annual loan origination market across various segments, indicating significant growth potential [16][17]. - Upstart has only originated around $40 billion in loans to date, suggesting substantial room for future expansion [17].

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings, Inc. has seen significant stock performance, with a return of +55.7% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500's +3.8% and the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry's +12.6% [1] Earnings Estimates - For the current quarter, Upstart is expected to report a loss of $0.05 per share, reflecting a +54.6% change from the same quarter last year, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by +20.4% over the last 30 days [4] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is -$0.62, indicating a year-over-year change of -10.7%, with an increase of +8.9% in estimates over the last month [4] - For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate is $0.64, representing a +203.8% change from the previous year, with a +33.3% increase in estimates over the past month [5] Revenue Growth - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $180.22 million, indicating a year-over-year change of +28.4% [8] - The revenue estimates for the current and next fiscal years are $597.66 million and $770.62 million, reflecting changes of +16.4% and +28.9%, respectively [8] Recent Performance - Upstart reported revenues of $162.14 million in the last quarter, a +20.5% year-over-year increase, with an EPS of -$0.06 compared to -$0.05 a year ago [9] - The company exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues by +8.14% and had an EPS surprise of +57.14%, beating consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters [10] Valuation - Upstart is graded F in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a premium compared to its peers [14]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart's shares have surged 200% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 13% return, driven by stabilizing financial performance and positive quarterly results [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Upstart reported revenue of $162 million, a 20% increase year-over-year, and a net loss per share of $0.07, both exceeding Wall Street expectations [2]. - The company experienced a total net loss of $126 million in the first nine months of 2024, with a notable improvement in Q3 2024, where the net loss was $7 million compared to $40 million in Q3 2023 [5]. Market Position and Growth - CEO Dave Girouard emphasized Upstart's commitment to strengthening its position as a leader in AI-driven fintech, indicating a return to growth despite macroeconomic challenges [3]. - Upstart's revenue in Q3 2024 was still 29% below the total from the same period in 2021, highlighting the need for significant recovery [7]. Valuation Concerns - Upstart's shares are currently trading 81% below their peak from October 2021, requiring a 427% gain to return to that level [9]. - The price-to-sales ratio stands at 11.8, above historical averages, suggesting that the current valuation may not be attractive for new investors [10].

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has received a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) upgrade, indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Upstart indicates expected earnings of -$0.62 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 10.7% [9]. - Over the past three months, analysts have raised their earnings estimates for Upstart by 8.7% [9]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in a company's earnings picture, which is a critical factor for stock price movements [2][3]. - The system classifies stocks into five groups, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. - Upstart's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for market-beating returns in the near term [12][11]. Impact of Institutional Investors - Institutional investors utilize earnings estimates to determine the fair value of stocks, and changes in these estimates can lead to significant stock price movements [5]. - The rising earnings estimates for Upstart indicate an improvement in the company's underlying business, which is expected to positively influence its stock price [6]. Conclusion - The Zacks rating upgrade for Upstart reflects an optimistic earnings outlook, which could lead to favorable stock price movements in the near future [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings reported strong third-quarter results, leading to a 53% increase in stock price, but caution is advised as the stock remains volatile and significantly below its previous highs [1][2][9]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter increased by 20% year over year, reaching $162 million, surpassing guidance of $150 million [3]. - Adjusted loss per share was $0.06, better than Wall Street's expectation of $0.15, and the net loss improved to $6.8 million from $40.3 million the previous year [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA turned positive, with management expecting continued growth in this area [4]. Operational Improvements - Management attributed the positive results to internal system improvements rather than low interest rates, which only began to take effect at the end of the quarter [5]. - Upstart has upgraded its machine learning systems, resulting in efficiency improvements and cost savings [5]. Market Position and Growth - The company added 24 new lending partners in the current year and is experiencing growth in auto loans, which increased by 46% year over year [6]. - Upstart's new home equity line of credit (HELOC) product has originated 600 loans without defaults, covering 55% of the population [7]. Economic Context - The economic environment is becoming more favorable for Upstart, with expectations of lower interest rates and a strong job market [10]. - Despite the recent stock surge, Upstart's stock is still 80% below its all-time highs, indicating significant volatility [9]. Investment Considerations - Upstart stock is considered high-risk, with a price-to-sales ratio of 12, which is elevated compared to faster-growing companies [11]. - Analysts are divided on the stock, with about a third rating it as a sell at current prices [11].

Upstart uses artificial intelligence to make lending decisions.The most significant risk for Upstart (UPST -7.83%) in 2024 was a severe recession that could increase default rates among borrowers.*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Nov. 8, 2024. The video was published on Nov. 10, 2024. ...