Core Insights - Analysts expect Walmart (WMT) to report quarterly earnings of $0.57 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5% [1] - Revenue projections stand at $165.56 billion, indicating a 2.5% increase from the previous year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 1% over the past 30 days, showing a reassessment by analysts [1] Revenue and Sales Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Membership and other income' at $1.70 billion, representing an 8.1% year-over-year increase [3] - The consensus for 'Net Sales- Walmart U.S.' is $112.43 billion, suggesting a 3.5% year-over-year growth [4] - 'Revenues- Net Sales' is projected to reach $163.96 billion, indicating a 2.5% year-over-year change [4] - 'Net Sales- Walmart International' is expected to be $29.27 billion, reflecting a decline of 1.9% from the previous year [4] Comparable Store Sales - 'Reported Sales Growth (YoY change) - Walmart International' is forecasted at -1.6%, down from 12.1% in the same quarter last year [5] - 'U.S. comparable store sales (YoY change) - Sam's Club - Without Fuel Impact' is projected to be 4.6%, slightly up from 4.4% in the previous year [5] - 'U.S. comparable store sales (YoY change) - Walmart U.S. - Without Fuel Impact' is expected to reach 3.9%, compared to 3.8% last year [6] - 'U.S. comparable store sales (YoY change) - Total U.S. - Without Fuel Impact' is estimated at 4.0%, up from 3.9% in the same quarter last year [6] Store Metrics - The number of 'Sam's Club' stores is expected to be 602, an increase from 599 last year [7] - The average prediction for 'Net square footage - Total' is 1,053.38 million square feet, compared to 1,050.92 million square feet last year [7] - 'Net square footage - Sam's Club' is projected to be 80.55 million square feet, slightly up from 80.2 million square feet in the previous year [7] - The number of 'International' stores is expected to reach 5,588, up from 5,399 last year [8] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Walmart shares have returned +4.2%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.8% [9] - Walmart currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating that its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [9]

Core Points - The recent high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. in Geneva resulted in significant agreements, including a reduction of bilateral tariffs, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar reduction [1] - The easing of trade tensions is expected to boost cross-border trade, lower input costs, and alleviate supply chain pressures in key industries, leading to positive market reactions, particularly in shipping, semiconductors, and logistics [1] Shipping and Logistics - Stocks such as ZIM, Matson, FedEx, UPS, and Uber saw significant pre-market gains, benefiting from increased trade volumes and improved cross-border transportation efficiency due to reduced tariffs [3] Semiconductors - Companies like Nvidia, AMD, Marvell Technology, TSMC, ASML, and Intel experienced notable pre-market stock increases, as tariff reductions are expected to ease supply chain disruptions and lower manufacturing costs for chipmakers [4] Retailers - Major retailers including Walmart, Amazon, Costco, and Target reported pre-market stock gains, as lower import costs could enhance profit margins and pricing power for those reliant on Chinese goods [5] Automotive and Parts - Automotive stocks such as Tesla, Ford, General Motors, and Aptiv saw pre-market increases, benefiting from reduced costs of metals and electronic components, which could enhance profitability for major manufacturers [6] Industrial Equipment - Companies like Caterpillar and Deere & Company experienced stock gains, as tariff reductions on machinery parts may improve profit margins and production capacity for firms reliant on imported components [7] Consumer Electronics - Apple and Dell saw pre-market stock increases, as supply chain cost savings are expected to enhance profitability, particularly for companies with supply chains centered in China [8] Airlines - Airline stocks including United Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Airlines, and JetBlue experienced pre-market gains, as reduced tariffs could lower operational costs and potentially increase air freight demand due to strengthened global trade [9] Chinese Tech Giants Listed in the U.S. - Stocks of Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu saw pre-market increases, as tariff reductions are likely to alleviate supply chain pressures and improve market access conditions for these companies [10]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart Inc. is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings, with expectations of revenue growth but a decline in earnings per share compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter revenues is $165.6 billion, reflecting a 2.5% increase year-over-year [2]. - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has decreased to 57 cents per share, indicating a 5% decline from the same quarter last year [2]. - Walmart has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 7.4%, with the last quarter's earnings surpassing estimates by 1.5% [2]. Earnings Prediction - The current Earnings ESP for Walmart is -1.76%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting that an earnings beat is not likely this time [3][4]. Business Strengths - Walmart's diversified business model shows consistent contributions across various segments, with increased traffic in both in-store and digital channels [5]. - Growth is driven by expanding e-commerce operations, enhanced pickup options, and accelerated delivery services [5]. - New business ventures, including third-party marketplace and advertising initiatives, are contributing to diversified profit streams [5]. Challenges and Outlook - The company has noted increased week-to-week sales volatility due to economic uncertainty and weakened consumer sentiment [6]. - Walmart anticipates fiscal first-quarter sales growth of 3% to 4%, with a 100 basis point headwind from the leap year comparison [6]. - Adjusted operating income growth is expected to be between 0.5% to 2% at constant currency, with casualty claims expenses being a significant cost pressure [7]. Valuation Analysis - Walmart's stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 36.15, above the industry average of 33.29, indicating a relatively expensive valuation [8]. - Compared to other retail giants, Walmart's valuation is significantly higher, raising concerns among value-focused investors [10]. Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Walmart's stock has declined by 8%, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [11]. - In comparison, key peers like Kroger and Ross Stores have shown gains, while Target's stock has dropped significantly [11]. Investment Considerations - Walmart's strong business model and growth in high-margin areas position it as a reliable choice for growth-focused investors [13]. - However, short-term challenges such as sales volatility and rising operating expenses may warrant caution for value investors [13].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings report from Walmart is anticipated to provide insights into consumer behavior and the impact of tariffs on the company's performance, with a focus on metrics beyond traditional quarterly earnings [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Analysts expect Walmart to report earnings of $0.58 per share on sales of $164.5 billion for the three-month period ending in April, reflecting a 2% increase in revenue compared to $161.5 billion a year ago [4]. - Rising costs are expected to negatively impact the bottom line, with a decrease from the previous year's per-share earnings of $0.60 [4]. - U.S. same-store sales growth is likely to have slowed from 4.9% in the previous quarter, indicating the effects of inflation and economic uncertainty on consumer spending [4]. Group 2: Key Metrics for Long-Term Health - The growth of Walmart's retail media business, which includes advertising, is a critical metric; the company is expected to report a percentage change in this area, likely in the mid-20% range, following a 28% year-over-year increase to $3.4 billion last year [7]. - The cost of goods sold and operating costs are essential to monitor, particularly in light of tariff-induced price increases; the previous quarter's gross margin rate was around 24% [9]. - Walmart's e-commerce growth is another vital area, with online sales having improved by 16% overall and 20% in the U.S. in the last quarter, although this represents a slowdown compared to previous growth rates [12][13]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Long-Term Outlook - Initial market reactions to Walmart's earnings report may focus on revenue and earnings data, but these figures may be skewed by tariff-related issues [14][15]. - RBC Capital Markets suggests that Walmart is better positioned than competitors to manage tariff challenges due to its scale and operational flexibility, indicating that any short-term issues may be resolved quickly [15]. - The long-term perspective should consider the aforementioned metrics, which provide a clearer understanding of Walmart's navigation through the current economic landscape [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the transition of the Chinese retail market from an incremental growth phase to a stock-based market, leading to significant changes in consumer behavior and retail strategies [5][6][10] - The company, Qicheng Capital, has focused on investing in the consumer sector since its establishment in 2016, targeting "new generation national brands" and "new generation national chains" [1][3] - The investments made by Qicheng Capital have collectively served 100 million families in China, indicating a substantial market impact [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the emergence of a "buyer solution" in the retail landscape, where the power dynamics shift from brands to retailers and consumers, reflecting a change in the value chain [11][12][14] - The current market features approximately 6 million stores in China, with a significant number being non-chain enterprises, suggesting a long way to go for the consolidation of retail chains [13] - Predictions indicate that in ten years, the market may evolve to include over 2000 large stores and 300,000 small stores centered around buyer solutions [15] Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of category management and the need for retailers to adapt to consumer demands, moving away from brand-centric strategies to a focus on category performance [17][24] - It notes that the consumer decision-making process is becoming increasingly complex, with various factors influencing purchasing behavior across different channels [30][32] - The blending of food and retail sectors is creating new opportunities for innovation, as seen in the emergence of hybrid business models [36][38] Group 4 - The article emphasizes the significance of understanding consumer segmentation and the need for retailers to tailor their offerings to specific consumer profiles [42][44] - It discusses the evolving relationships between brands and retailers, advocating for long-term partnerships based on mutual understanding and shared goals [43][45] - The future of the market is expected to be characterized by continuous innovation and the reconfiguration of product categories to meet diverse consumer needs [39][41]

Group 1 - The author has extensive experience in executive management, particularly in insurance/reinsurance and the Global and Asia Pacific markets [1] - The focus areas include climate change and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) [1] Group 2 - The author holds a beneficial short position in TGT shares, indicating a bearish outlook on the stock [2] - The analysis is presented as personal opinion without compensation from any company mentioned [2]

Investment Rating - The report highlights ten stock picks rated as "Buy" that are expected to be resilient in the current uncertain economic environment [11][23]. Core Insights - The initial sell-off in the market was broad-based, with 99% of S&P 500 stocks declining, but the recovery has been uneven, primarily driven by technology stocks [3][11]. - A bottom-up approach is recommended to understand how policies impact individual companies, especially in light of ongoing macroeconomic and policy uncertainties [4][11]. - The report anticipates continued volatility in equity markets as macro and micro data worsen, with a focus on defensive sectors [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500 has outperformed the equal-weighted index, with a significant contribution from technology stocks, while many sectors, particularly recession-resilient ones like healthcare, remain below pre-sell-off levels [3][22][19]. - Only 35% of S&P 500 stocks have recovered to pre-Liberation Day levels, indicating a challenging recovery landscape [3][11]. Stock Picks - **AIG (AIG US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 93.00, expected to benefit from its solid risk management and low leverage [6][23]. - **American Tower (AMT US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 245.00, noted for its geographical diversification and resilience in a high-tariff environment [6][24]. - **Coca-Cola (KO US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 82.00, positioned to leverage its brand strength and local sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts [6][29]. - **Johnson & Johnson (JNJ US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 184.00, recognized for its diversified portfolio and strong R&D pipeline [6][30]. - **McDonald's (MCD US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 343.00, expected to benefit from its franchise model and focus on affordability [6][34]. - **Oracle (ORCL US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 246.00, anticipated to capitalize on AI demand and improve revenue growth [6][37]. - **Procter & Gamble (PG US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 185.00, noted for its strong brand equity and global supply chain [6][40]. - **TechnipFMC (FTI US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 36.00, positioned to benefit from its operational efficiencies [6][43]. - **Walmart (WMT US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 108.00, expected to maintain its market position amid economic challenges [6]. - **Waste Management (WM US)**: Rated "Buy" with a target price of USD 265.00, recognized for its stable revenue model [6].

Group 1 - The article highlights the significant economic events and data releases from May 12 to May 18, focusing on U.S. inflation metrics, retail sales, and earnings reports from major Chinese tech companies like Tencent and Alibaba [5][6][15][20]. - U.S. April CPI data showed a core CPI of 2.8%, the lowest in four years, while the overall CPI experienced a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [7][10]. - Retail sales in March surged by 1.4%, the largest increase in over two years, driven by consumer panic buying amid tariff fears [12][14]. Group 2 - JD.com reported Q1 revenue of 347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, with a net profit of 9.9 billion yuan, indicating healthy growth across various business segments [15]. - Tencent's Q1 revenue is projected to be between 172.6 billion to 177.8 billion yuan, with a net profit forecasted between 50.9 billion to 56.7 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 8.2% to 11.5% year-on-year [18][19]. - Alibaba's Q4 revenue growth reached its fastest pace in over a year, with significant increases in core business and cloud services, indicating a robust recovery [20][22].

Macro and Policy Level - The Chinese central bank will implement a targeted reserve requirement ratio cut starting May 15, reducing the ratio by 0.5 percentage points for most financial institutions and by 5 percentage points for auto finance and financial leasing companies [7] - The U.S. will release April PPI and retail sales data on May 15, with March retail sales showing a 1.4% month-on-month increase, the largest in over two years, driven by tariff-related purchasing [4] - The Eurozone's Q1 GDP growth is reported at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.2% year-on-year, with Germany and France meeting expectations while Italy exceeded them with a 0.3% growth [9] Company Level - JD.com reported Q1 2025 revenue of 347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, with net profit at 9.9 billion yuan, indicating healthy growth across multiple categories [12][14] - Tencent's Q1 2025 revenue is expected to be between 172.6 billion to 177.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% to 11.5%, with net profit projected between 50.9 billion to 56.7 billion yuan, a growth of 21.4% to 35.4% [15] - Alibaba's Q1 2025 revenue is anticipated to reach 237 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7%, and adjusted net profit expected to be 31.4 billion yuan, a 31% increase [16] - Walmart's Q1 2026 revenue is projected at 164.5 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 2.85%, with expected earnings per share of 0.579 USD, a decrease of 8.11% [17]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points starting May 15, and by 5 percentage points for auto finance and leasing companies [6][12] - Multiple domestic internet giants will release their financial reports next week, including JD.com on May 13, Tencent on May 14, and Alibaba and NetEase on May 15 [6][14] - E-commerce platforms such as Tmall and Suning will start their 618 pre-sale activities on May 13, while Douyin Mall and JD.com will also launch promotional events on the same day [6][15] Group 2 - 28 stocks in the A-share market will face the unlocking of restricted shares next week, totaling 1.066 billion shares with a market value of 18.63 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 58.25% [3] - The stocks with the highest unlocking market value include Guojin Securities, Qiangrui Technology, and Jiangsu Huachen, with respective values of 4.166 billion yuan, 3.243 billion yuan, and 2.644 billion yuan [3][4] - There will be no new stock subscriptions in the A-share market next week, but Tian Gong Co. will be listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange on May 13 [3][5] Group 3 - Walmart is expected to report its Q1 2026 financial results on May 15, with projected revenue of $164.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.85%, and an expected earnings per share of $0.579, a decrease of 8.11% [6][16] - UBS analysts believe Walmart's first-quarter results will show stable and predictable revenue despite broader concerns about tariffs and economic pressures [6][16] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Index Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for Q1 2025 on May 16 [3][4] - The U.S. will release key economic data next week, including the April CPI on May 13 and the April PPI and retail sales on May 15 [4][5]