What is going on with the US consumer right now. We just learned the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in November. That's the highest level in more than four years as that long delayed government report shows the economy added just to 64,000 jobs.Added to fresh data talking about retail sales being kind of flattish to decelerating and questions are mounting about how resilient consumer spending really is. Michelle Meyer can answer all of this for us. She joins us from Mastercard to break down these trends. ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a record high, driven by blue-chip earnings [1] - The Dow rose by 218.16 points, or 0.47%, closing at 46,924.74 points; the S&P 500 was nearly flat, up 0.22% to 6,735.35 points; while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 36.88 points, or 0.16%, to 22,953.67 points [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Apple hitting a record closing high at $262.77, giving it a market capitalization of $3.9 trillion [1] Group 2: Earnings Reports - The third-quarter earnings season is peaking, with several blue-chip companies exceeding expectations [3] - General Motors' stock surged by 14.9% after raising its full-year guidance and alleviating tariff concerns; Coca-Cola rose by 4.1% due to strong consumer demand and improved margins; 3M increased by 7.7% supported by high-margin product mix and cost control [3] - 78 companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings, with 87% surpassing market expectations; overall earnings are projected to grow by 9.2% year-on-year, up from an earlier estimate of 8.8% [3] Group 3: Netflix Performance - Netflix reported a third-quarter earnings per share of $5.87, below the market expectation of $6.97, leading to a post-earnings drop of over 6% in its stock price [1][2] - The company's revenue for the quarter was $11.51 billion, in line with analyst expectations, but its operating margin was impacted by ongoing disputes with Brazilian tax authorities [2] - For the fourth quarter, Netflix anticipates revenue of $11.96 billion, slightly above the market forecast of $11.9 billion [2] Group 4: Commodity Prices - International gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with spot gold dropping by 5.18% to $4,130.41 per ounce, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2013 [4] - Spot silver fell by 7.16% to $48.705 per ounce, also recording its largest drop since 2021 [4] - COMEX gold futures for the current month fell by $250.30, or 5.74%, to $4,109.10 per ounce [4] Group 5: Oil Prices - International oil prices saw slight increases, with WTI crude oil closing at $57.82 per barrel, up 0.52%; Brent crude oil rose by 0.51% to $61.32 per barrel [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. tariff policy is under scrutiny, with a Goldman Sachs report indicating that 55% of tariff costs are ultimately borne by American consumers, while businesses absorb 22% and foreign suppliers only 18% [1] - A Yale University study reveals that new tariffs have increased average annual spending for American households by $2,400, with clothing and footwear prices rising by 40% in the short term [3] - The impact on low-income families is significant, with households earning $30,000 needing to spend an additional 7% on basic consumption due to tariffs [3] Group 2 - Companies are also feeling the strain, with Stanley Black & Decker's CFO admitting to implementing "proactive pricing strategies" to pass on costs, and John Deere reporting over $300 million in losses due to steel tariffs [5] - A Dallas Federal Reserve survey shows that 60% of retailers and 70% of manufacturers report negative impacts from tariffs [5] - Inflation is resurging, with Goldman Sachs predicting that tariffs will push the core PCE index to 3%, having already raised prices by 0.44% this year [6]

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Pop Mart, a company in the collectible toys industry, particularly known for its designer toys and figures. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance** - In September, offline sales growth is expected to remain consistent with August, driven by restocking and new product launches, particularly the mini Labubu series [2][4] - Douyin channel sales growth exceeded the peak in February, marking a new high for the year, attributed to the 3.0 version restocking and promotional events [2][4] - Tmall platform maintained over 80% year-on-year growth, while JD platform saw nearly 100% growth in July-August, generating approximately 35.6 million yuan [2][4] 2. **New Product Launches** - September saw the launch of several new products, including the "Demo's Today is Sunday" series, which gained significant traction on social media [3] - Other notable new products included "Little Sweet Bean's Day," "New Star People," and "Gisgai's Heart Bear," with two being made of flocked material [3] 3. **International Expansion** - Pop Mart is actively expanding its overseas market, opening three new stores in the United States, with additional openings in Singapore, Canada, Bordeaux, France, and the Middle East [2][5] 4. **Marketing Season Expectations** - The second half of the year is anticipated to be a peak marketing season, with a higher volume and quality of new products compared to the first half [2][6] - Traditional peak sales periods such as Halloween and Christmas are expected to drive significant sales [6] 5. **Financial Projections** - The company forecasts a year-on-year revenue growth of over 150% in the third quarter of 2025, with positive impacts on annual profits expected from the third-quarter performance [2][6] 6. **Response to Tariff Costs** - Pop Mart is managing rising tariff costs through a global supply chain and the ability to pass some costs onto consumers, with price increases observed in both hard figures and plush series [2][7] - The company's stock price has shown resilience, recovering from a significant drop earlier in the year, indicating effective strategies to mitigate tariff impacts [7] Other Important Insights - The performance of new products and the effectiveness of marketing strategies are crucial for maintaining growth in a competitive market [3][6] - The company's ability to adapt to external economic pressures, such as tariffs, reflects its operational strength and strategic planning [7]

Core Viewpoint - The retail sector, particularly Walmart, is facing significant challenges due to the impact of tariffs, leading to increased costs and pressure on profit margins [1][2][3] Group 1: Walmart's Financial Performance - Walmart reported Q2 revenue of $177.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $176.16 billion, but adjusted earnings per share were $0.68, below the expected $0.74, marking the first miss in three years [1] - Despite the profit miss, Walmart raised its full-year sales and profit guidance, expecting sales growth of 3.75% to 4.75%, up from a previous forecast of 3% to 4% [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The company has begun raising prices on certain imported goods to offset tariff costs, which has drawn criticism from President Trump [2] - Walmart's CFO indicated that while some costs have been absorbed, others have had to be passed on to consumers, with overall tariff-related costs continuing to rise [2] - A broader trend is emerging, with nearly one-third of U.S. businesses planning to raise prices in the next six months due to increased input and import costs [2] Group 3: Employment Market and Economic Outlook - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims rising by 11,000 to 235,000, the largest increase since late May [3] - High unemployment rates may not fully reflect the underlying economic conditions, as labor demand is weakening and job vacancies are decreasing [3][4] - Economic forecasts suggest that the U.S. economy will continue to slow down, impacting consumer spending and overall economic health [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Home Depot, the largest home improvement retailer in the U.S., is forced to raise prices on certain products due to increased import costs stemming from U.S. tariff policies [1] Group 1: Company Impact - Home Depot is seeking to diversify its supply sources, but nearly half of its inventory still comes from suppliers outside the U.S. [1] - The company's net profit was adjusted downward in the second quarter due to rising operational costs from tariffs [1] - Home Depot anticipates a continued decline in earnings per share for the year, influenced by economic uncertainty and high interest rates affecting consumer home renovation plans [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the import value of furniture and home goods exceeded $10 billion in the first quarter of this year [1] - The increased tariffs have pressured many U.S. home brands with rising costs, impacting importers, distributors, and retailers who must share the burden of these costs [1] - Ultimately, U.S. consumers will face the reality of price increases on goods due to these tariff policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - German Commercial Bank indicates that U.S. companies may pass on tariff costs to consumers, which will heighten economic concerns and lead to a weaker dollar [1] Group 1 - U.S. companies are likely to transfer tariff costs to consumers [1] - This transfer of costs could exacerbate economic worries [1] - A weaker dollar is anticipated as a consequence of these developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the U.S. inflation in July was largely in line with expectations, with tariffs continuing to moderately push prices up, although at a slower pace compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to have a prolonged but milder impact on prices due to a slower transfer of costs from businesses to consumers [1] - The rebound in service inflation does not show significant signs of a slowdown in service consumption demand [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities forecasts that the Federal Reserve will implement three consecutive rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The increase in rental vacancy rates and a slowdown in labor demand suggest a more stable outlook for service inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that U.S. inflation in July was largely in line with expectations, with tariffs continuing to moderately push up prices, although at a slightly slower pace compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to have a more moderate and prolonged impact on prices due to a slower pass-through to consumers [1] - The rebound in service inflation does not show significant signs of a slowdown in service consumption demand [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The increase in rental vacancy rates and a slowdown in labor demand suggest a more stable outlook for service inflation [1] - The company now anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that the U.S. inflation is entering a structural upward phase, with core CPI rebounding to over 3%, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may increase internal disagreements within the Fed regarding policy decisions [2][5][6]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the core CPI adjusted month-on-month increased by 0.3%, and year-on-year rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, exceeding market expectations. Overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and remained at 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2][5]. - The inflation characteristics in July showed moderate goods prices and a rebound in services. Tariff costs are still being passed on to consumers, but some prices have started to decline [3][4]. Goods Price Analysis - The core goods price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month. Notable increases were seen in furniture (+0.9%), curtains (+1.2%), and audio-visual equipment (+0.8%). However, some previously rising categories like appliances (-2.2%) and men's clothing (-1.3%) showed weakness [3]. - Used car prices rebounded to a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while new car prices stabilized, indicating a potential shift in pricing strategies by manufacturers due to institutionalized tariff policies [3][5]. Services Price Analysis - The supercore price index, excluding rent, increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with significant contributions from previously declining airfares, which surged by 4%. This suggests a stabilization in travel activities [4][5]. - Other service prices, including vehicle maintenance (+1.2%) and medical services (+0.8%), continued to rise, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector [4]. Overall Inflation Outlook - The July CPI data does not alter the outlook for U.S. inflation, which is expected to rise structurally. The effects of tariff cost pass-through are anticipated to become more evident in the coming months, with core goods inflation facing upward risks [5][6]. - The Fed may struggle to reach a consensus on policy direction due to the mixed signals from inflation data, leading to increased volatility in the market [6].