人民财讯8月13日电，中信证券研报认为，美国7月通胀大致符合预期，关税继续温和推升物价、速度较 上月稍放缓，服务通胀反弹，价格信号没有反映太多服务消费需求放缓的迹象。中信证券仍预计美国企 业能向居民部门完成大部分关税成本的转嫁，更慢的转嫁速度可能意味着关税对物价更温和而更久的提 振影响，不过租屋空置率的回升和劳动力需求的放缓意味着服务通胀前景较稳定。中信证券现在预计美 联储年内将连续降息三次，每次25bps。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that the U.S. inflation is entering a structural upward phase, with core CPI rebounding to over 3%, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may increase internal disagreements within the Fed regarding policy decisions [2][5][6]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the core CPI adjusted month-on-month increased by 0.3%, and year-on-year rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, exceeding market expectations. Overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and remained at 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2][5]. - The inflation characteristics in July showed moderate goods prices and a rebound in services. Tariff costs are still being passed on to consumers, but some prices have started to decline [3][4]. Goods Price Analysis - The core goods price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month. Notable increases were seen in furniture (+0.9%), curtains (+1.2%), and audio-visual equipment (+0.8%). However, some previously rising categories like appliances (-2.2%) and men's clothing (-1.3%) showed weakness [3]. - Used car prices rebounded to a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while new car prices stabilized, indicating a potential shift in pricing strategies by manufacturers due to institutionalized tariff policies [3][5]. Services Price Analysis - The supercore price index, excluding rent, increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with significant contributions from previously declining airfares, which surged by 4%. This suggests a stabilization in travel activities [4][5]. - Other service prices, including vehicle maintenance (+1.2%) and medical services (+0.8%), continued to rise, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector [4]. Overall Inflation Outlook - The July CPI data does not alter the outlook for U.S. inflation, which is expected to rise structurally. The effects of tariff cost pass-through are anticipated to become more evident in the coming months, with core goods inflation facing upward risks [5][6]. - The Fed may struggle to reach a consensus on policy direction due to the mixed signals from inflation data, leading to increased volatility in the market [6].

美联储的决策困境随之加剧：一边是通胀压力如火焰升腾，一边是增长前景如寒冰凝结，政策天平 在"灭火"与"保温"间艰难摇摆，普通人的钱包却成为无声的牺牲品。 美国《财富》杂志网站报道，美国6月核心商品价格创两年来最大涨幅，CPI持续攀升2.7%。这不仅是 冰冷数据，更像是一颗经济"延时炸弹"被引爆的倒计时。 若企业将关税成本悉数转嫁给市场，物价的加速飙升将如沉重枷锁，锁住民众的消费意愿与能力。当普 通家庭在超市货架前犹豫不决时，消费引擎的熄火便近在眼前。 特朗普的关税壁垒，本意打造"美国优先"的护盾，却在经济规律的无情折射下，化作一枚凌厉的回旋 镖。 当核心通胀率飙升成为现实，企业与消费者在转嫁与消化的两难中挣扎，美联储在通胀与增长的钢丝上 战战兢兢。特朗普挥舞关税大棒，最终恐难避免全民买单的结局。 企业同样深陷泥潭。若选择咬牙自吞关税苦果，利润空间被强行挤压，无异于抽走投资与创新的血液。 裁员阴影可能蔓延，劳动力市场随之承压——底层员工与求职者将沦为这场无声战役中的"次生伤员"。 更令人警醒的是，历史教训犹在耳畔：过往研究表明，美国进口商与中国出口商往往共同分担关税成 本，而美国消费者最终承受了大部分实际负担。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Dallas Fed President, Logan, emphasized the necessity of maintaining the 4.25% interest rate range for at least 6 to 12 months to control inflation, indicating a cautious yet restrictive policy stance [3] - Following Logan's remarks, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 65% to 58%, and the likelihood of two rate cuts within the year fell from 93% to 76% [3] - The June CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, marking a four-month high, while core CPI increased by 2.9%, significantly exceeding the Fed's 2% target [3] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The inflationary pressures are evident with clothing prices rising by 0.4%, furniture by 1%, and household appliances by 1.9% [3] - A survey indicated that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers within three months [3] - The "super core inflation" (excluding food, energy, and housing) increased by 0.12%, surpassing previous months' growth rates [4] Group 3: Global Market Reactions - The announcement of Nvidia's approval to export AI accelerators to China boosted its stock by 4%, pushing its market cap over $4.1 trillion and contributing to a record high for the Nasdaq index [4] - The U.S. Treasury issued a record $1.2 trillion in bonds in Q2, leading to a structural decline in demand and causing a surge in 30-year Treasury yields above 5% [8] - The global market experienced a downturn, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index falling by 0.1% and gold prices dropping below $3,330 per ounce [8] Group 4: Political Pressures and Future Outlook - Political pressure from figures like Trump, who called for a 300 basis point rate cut, adds complexity to the Fed's decision-making process [6] - The selection process for the next Fed Chair has begun, with potential candidates like Hassett emerging amid concerns over market stability [6] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in July has plummeted to 15%, reflecting growing uncertainty about future monetary policy [10]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that some tariff costs will be passed on to consumers, but this will not lead to sustained inflation [1] Group 1 - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is acknowledged, indicating a potential increase in costs for consumers [1] - Waller emphasizes that the transmission of these costs will not result in persistent inflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - The new wave of tariffs announced by President Trump has set an average tax rate of 20% for products imported from various countries, leading to a projected price increase of at least 10% for consumer electronics in the US market, including iPhones and laptops, to reflect the added tariff costs [1] - Companies such as Asus, Acer, MSI, Gigabyte, and HTC are expected to be affected by the impending price hikes, as they prepare to respond by either raising prices or cutting supply chain costs to avoid scaring off consumers [1][2] - Currently, there is no immediate price increase for consumer electronics in the US, as major brands like Apple, HP, Dell, Asus, and Lenovo have already stocked up inventory in the first half of the year, relying on previously accumulated stock for sales [1] Group 2 - Asus has been proactive in response to the tariffs, having started strategic inventory preparations in the US market since Q4 of last year, with stock levels sufficient for three to six months depending on the product category [2] - In contrast, Acer has not engaged in preemptive stocking in the US, maintaining an inventory level of about six to eight weeks, which is considered normal [2] - As brand inventories in the US continue to decrease and the final tariff rates are confirmed, it is anticipated that noticeable price increases for consumer electronics will begin in the second half of the year, particularly for newly launched models [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Williams indicates that companies are passing on tariff costs to customers [1] Group 1 - Companies are experiencing increased costs due to tariffs and are transferring these costs to consumers [1] - This behavior may impact consumer prices and overall inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Many companies are expected to pass on some or all of the tariff costs to end consumers [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the expectation that companies will transfer tariff costs to consumers [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May increased by 2.4% year-over-year, meeting expectations, with the previous value at 2.3% [1] - The core CPI for May rose by 2.8% year-over-year, which is below the expected value of 2.9%, and the previous value was also 2.8% [1] - The core CPI has now shown a lower-than-expected increase for four consecutive months, indicating that companies are attempting to limit the transfer of rising costs from tariffs to consumers [1]

Core Insights - Approximately 75% of manufacturing and service companies have partially passed on tariff costs to consumers [1] - One-third of manufacturing firms and about 45% of service companies have fully transferred all tariff increases [1]