Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 289.30 points (0.61%) and Dow Futures rose by 253.00 points (0.5327%), indicating strong market momentum driven by optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and robust economic data [1] Key Stock Performances - JPMorgan Chase (JPM) led the gains with a rise of +1.77%, followed by IBM (IBM) at +1.74%, and Amazon (AMZN) at +1.72%, reflecting positive sentiment in the retail sector as the holiday shopping season begins [2] - Walmart (WMT) and Microsoft (MSFT) also contributed positively, gaining +1.37% and +1.33% respectively [2] Declining Stocks - Nvidia (NVDA) was the most significant loser, down -2.04%, indicating potential profit-taking or company-specific issues within the tech sector [3] - Other notable decliners included Travelers Companies (TRV) at -0.56% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) at -0.31% [3] Trading Session Context - The market operated on a shortened schedule due to the holiday weekend, which may have influenced trading volumes and stock movements [3]

Market Trends & Consumer Behavior - Consumers are looking for value and great deals, but still have money and want joy [3] - The US consumer has been solid worldwide, despite anxieties and cross-currents [4] - There's a barbell and bifurcation in the market, with pressure at the low and middle and strength at the high end [10] - Quiet luxury is a continuing trend, with less focus on logos and more emphasis on quality and materials [8] Retail & Payment Strategies - Increased rates of mobile use, with a mix of buy online pickup in store, curbside pickup, and delivery [5] - New ways of payment are very different for younger customers [6] - Digital advertising for Walmart is in the $5 billion range [14] Company Performance & Strategies - Levi's focuses on direct to consumer strategy by opening their own stores globally [1] - Walmart is favored for its value story, delivery, curbside pickup, marketplace model, and digital advertising [14] - Walmart's leading grocery business accounts for 60% of its revenue [15] M&A and IPO - Selective M&A is possible, especially in beauty, skincare, longevity, and niche fragrances [13] - The market is getting better with the consumer on a more stable footing, making M&A totally possible [13] Luxury Market - Jewelry is outperforming the rest of the luxury world, especially gold jewelry [9][10] - Handbag prices have gotten extreme, making jewelry prices compelling [11] - Creative leadership matters in luxury brands, driving desire and new design [7]

Core Insights - Americans are expected to spend heavily during the Thanksgiving weekend, benefiting various exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to consumer spending [1] - A record 186.9 million shoppers are anticipated from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, indicating a rise from 183.4 million last year [2] - Black Friday remains the leading shopping day, with an estimated 130.4 million shoppers, followed by Cyber Monday with 73.9 million [3] Spending Strength & Patterns - Shoppers expect to spend an average of $542 over the five-day period, an increase from $529 in 2024, with Millennials projected to spend an average of $764 per person [4] - About 36% of consumers plan to spend more than last year, with Gen Z leading the trend, as nearly 60% indicate they will increase their spending compared to 2024 [5] - 83% of shoppers plan to shop in physical stores, while 83% will shop online for delivery, and 58% intend to order online and pick up in-store [6] Retail Strategies - Retailers are offering fewer and shorter promotions this year, which may support profit margins, although Walmart's aggressive discounts could pressure competitors [7] - Walmart shares have increased by 17% year-to-date as of November 21, 2025, and gained 2.6% last week [7] Likely ETF Winners - The following ETFs are expected to benefit from Thanksgiving weekend spending: SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY), ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN), Amplify Digital Payments ETF (IPAY), iShares FinTech Active ETF (BPAY), and Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF (PSCD) [8]

Group 1 - Retail stocks are showing modest gains in a holiday-shortened trading session, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) up 0.2% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.3% [1] - Big-box retailers are leading the market, with Walmart up 0.8%, Costco Wholesale gaining 0.5%, and Target rising 1.5%, while specialty retailers have mixed performance, exemplified by Best Buy's decline of 1.6% [2]

Is ChatGPT Helping Or Hurting Amazon And Walmart? They Disagree https://t.co/L0QCvdMBpy ...

Consumer Behavior - The consumer is characterized as stable but choiceful, being careful with spending while still participating in key shopping events [2][4] - Retailers expect strong sales during the Turkey 5 holiday weekend, but a deeper drop-off in sales post-holiday is anticipated [3] Retail Environment - Retailers like Dick's Sporting Goods and Best Buy expect more promotional and deeper discounts this year due to consumer sensitivity to pricing [4] - Retailers are raising prices to create a cushion for deeper discounts during key events, reflecting the pressure on consumers [5] Technological Impact - The upcoming holiday season is expected to be the last before widespread adoption of artificial intelligence in shopping, which will change the competitive landscape [6][7] - Retailers will need to adjust quickly to a more commoditized pricing environment driven by technology [7] Profitability Strategies - Retail media and advertising sales are becoming increasingly important for retailer profitability as pricing becomes more ubiquitous [9] - Large, well-positioned retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, and Costco are expected to benefit from their technological advancements [10] Stock Performance - Target is actively working to improve its performance, and there is a belief that the stock's potential for successful improvement is greater than currently priced in [10]

Core Viewpoint - The decision between investing in Walmart and Costco may hinge on valuation, despite both companies showing strong financial results amid economic uncertainty [1]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Both Walmart and Costco reported a 6% annual growth in net sales in their most recent quarters, indicating similar sales performance [2]. Group 2: Profitability - Walmart's net income increased by 34% year over year, while Costco's net income rose by 11%. However, Costco's net income growth was closely aligned with its operating income, which increased by 10%, contrasting with Walmart's operating income, which fell by less than 1% due to higher operating expenses [3]. Group 3: Investment Gains - Walmart's recent profit increase was primarily driven by unrealized investment gains, which may not reflect sustainable operational performance [4]. Group 4: Valuation Comparison - Walmart's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 36, while Costco's is significantly higher at 50, making Walmart appear more reasonably valued compared to Costco, despite both companies being prominent retailers on a growth trajectory [6][7].

Core Insights - The 2025 holiday shopping season in the U.S. is characterized as a competition in artificial intelligence (AI) integration across the retail sector, transforming every aspect from gift searching to checkout [1] Group 1: AI Tools and Innovations - Major retailers and tech companies are launching new AI tools and features to assist consumers in gift finding and shopping list creation [2] - Target and Walmart have introduced new chatbots that act as conversational stylists and shopping assistants, enhancing the shopping experience by providing personalized recommendations [2][3] - Target's new chatbot can engage in dialogue to understand the recipient's age, interests, occasion, and budget, improving gift selection [2] - Amazon's "Help Me Decide" feature analyzes user browsing and purchase history to recommend suitable products [2] Group 2: AI Integration in Retail - Companies are focusing on providing customized services through AI, with Walmart launching tools to help shoppers find discounts and navigate stores more easily [4] - Google is integrating AI tools like virtual try-ons and automatic price tracking into its search and shopping functionalities [5] - Meta is embedding AI assistants into Instagram and Facebook ads for real-time product matching [6] Group 3: E-commerce and AI Advancements - OpenAI has introduced instant checkout features in ChatGPT, allowing users to purchase items from e-commerce platforms without leaving the chat interface [7] - Google has released an AI assistant capable of calling local stores to check product availability, while Amazon has developed a feature to track price changes and make automatic purchases [8] - Visa and Mastercard are preparing for the rise of "agent commerce," where AI assistants handle shopping, by establishing new security protocols [8] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Expectations - A survey indicated that approximately 42% of shoppers are using AI tools for holiday shopping, with over half of Gen Z and Millennials trusting AI for unique gift recommendations [9] - AI chat tools are expected to see a 520% increase in traffic, with peak shopping days potentially exceeding 1000% [9] - Despite the advancements, many AI tools remain experimental, and some consumers express dissatisfaction with the limited variety of brands and products offered by chatbots [9]

Core Insights - A record number of shoppers, approximately 186.9 million, are expected to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, marking an increase of about 3 million from last year [4] - Black Friday remains the largest shopping day, with around 130.4 million shoppers planning to participate, followed by Cyber Monday at 40% and Small Business Saturday at 36% [5] Retail Performance - Costco and Walmart are identified as key winners in the holiday shopping season due to their strong brand presence and ability to offer low prices [6] - Costco's stock is down 2.5% year-to-date with a HOLD rating, while Walmart is up nearly 18% year-to-date, also holding a HOLD rating [7] Consumer Behavior - Direct-to-consumer brands face challenges as consumers increasingly price-check items on platforms like Amazon, leading to heightened price sensitivity [8][9] - Luxury brands like Louis Vuitton are performing well, as the top 10% of earners contribute significantly to consumption despite broader consumer pullbacks [10] Economic Context - The National Retail Federation forecasts total holiday spending to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with sales growth projected between 3.7% and 4.2% for 2024 [13] - Retail stocks have struggled overall this year, with both consumer discretionary and staples sectors lagging behind the broader market due to economic pressures [14] Notable Retailers - Discount chains such as Dollar General and Dollar Tree have seen stock increases of over 30% this year, while brands like Coca-Cola have gained around 16% [15]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures halted trading on Friday due to a data center glitch, impacting trade in US Treasuries and crude oil [1] - The benchmark index tracking ETFs was trading higher, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) up 0.30% at $681.70 and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) up 0.42% at $616.85 [3] Company Performance - Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY) fell 14.93% in premarket trading after announcing a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, maintaining a weaker price trend [7] - Direct Digital Holdings Inc. (DRCT) dropped 12.06% after revealing a settlement agreement to issue up to 50 million Class A common shares [7] - SMX (Security Matters) PLC surged 74.43% after presenting its technology at a conference in Dubai, despite maintaining a weaker price trend [7] - Walmart Inc. (WMT) rose 0.31% on Black Friday, promising discounts and exclusive offers, and maintaining a stronger price trend [7][15] - Apple Inc. (AAPL) was up 0.36% on Black Friday, offering promotions and gift cards, while maintaining a stronger price trend [15] Economic Insights - The consumer debt level in the U.S. has reached $18.6 trillion, but the ratio of household debt to disposable income is near a 25-year low at just below 90% [10][11] - The consumer landscape is described as "bifurcated," with high-wage earners spending while lower-income consumers struggle [11] - The long-term economic outlook remains optimistic, with projections for improvement driven by AI-related capital expenditures and deregulation [12]