Core Insights - The leading retailers for the holiday shopping season are Walmart, Costco, TJX, and Amazon, which have consistently gained market share over the years [2][4][11] - Specialty brands like GAP, Urban Outfitters, and Abercrombie can experience significant stock price increases when they perform well, but their market presence remains small compared to the giants [3][4] - The promotional environment has shifted, with consumers now more aware of value, leading to changes in shopping behavior and expectations [5][6] Retail Dynamics - Consumers perceive value differently, with Walmart focusing on everyday low prices and fewer promotions, while others adopt a high-low pricing strategy [5][6] - Black Friday remains a significant shopping day, although the urgency to shop in-store has diminished due to online availability [7][8] - Younger generations, particularly Gen Z and millennials, are driving foot traffic during Black Friday, indicating a shift towards experiential shopping [9] Market Trends - Emerging brands are gaining traction and may disrupt established players like Lululemon, but identifying sustainable long-term winners remains challenging [10][11] - The preference for established retailers like Walmart, TJX, Amazon, and Costco continues to grow, as evidenced by consumer behavior and shopping patterns [11][12]

Group 1 - Walmart (WMT) stock reached a record high on Black Friday, marking the start of the holiday shopping season [1] - Analog Devices (ADI) and Fortuna Mining (FSM) also achieved price peaks during the holiday-shortened trading session [1] - Amazon stock increased as shoppers prepared for what analysts predict will be a record-setting Black Friday [2] Group 2 - Analog Devices received a relative strength rating upgrade, joining an elite list of stocks with a composite rating of 95 or higher [4] - The stock market showed resilience with the Dow Jones performing well, despite challenges from Nvidia and Bitcoin [4] - Retail sales data is anticipated during the Thanksgiving week, which could impact market sentiment [4]

Market Share & Key Players - Walmart, Costco, TJX, and Amazon are consistently gaining market share at the expense of other retailers [2] - These four retailers have been dominating for years, and this trend is expected to continue [1][2] - While some specialty players like GAP, Urban Outfitters, and Abercrombie can experience a "bounce" with good performance, their overall impact is small compared to the dominant retailers [3] - The mentioned retailers are the largest in terms of both market capitalization and market share [4] Consumer Behavior & Value - Consumers understand true value and respond accordingly, regardless of retailers' promotional tactics [5][6] - Black Friday sales have been extended across multiple days, but the day remains a significant shopping day, especially when combining in-store and online sales [7] - Younger generations (Gen Z and millennials) are driving foot traffic, suggesting an experiential aspect to in-store shopping [9] Emerging Brands & Sustainability - New brands are emerging and taking market share, particularly in specialty apparel [10] - Identifying brands with a sustainable formula is challenging, as many are "one-hit wonders" [11]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 289.30 points (0.61%) and Dow Futures rose by 253.00 points (0.5327%), indicating strong market momentum driven by optimism regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and robust economic data [1] Key Stock Performances - JPMorgan Chase (JPM) led the gains with a rise of +1.77%, followed by IBM (IBM) at +1.74%, and Amazon (AMZN) at +1.72%, reflecting positive sentiment in the retail sector as the holiday shopping season begins [2] - Walmart (WMT) and Microsoft (MSFT) also contributed positively, gaining +1.37% and +1.33% respectively [2] Declining Stocks - Nvidia (NVDA) was the most significant loser, down -2.04%, indicating potential profit-taking or company-specific issues within the tech sector [3] - Other notable decliners included Travelers Companies (TRV) at -0.56% and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) at -0.31% [3] Trading Session Context - The market operated on a shortened schedule due to the holiday weekend, which may have influenced trading volumes and stock movements [3]

Market Trends & Consumer Behavior - Consumers are looking for value and great deals, but still have money and want joy [3] - The US consumer has been solid worldwide, despite anxieties and cross-currents [4] - There's a barbell and bifurcation in the market, with pressure at the low and middle and strength at the high end [10] - Quiet luxury is a continuing trend, with less focus on logos and more emphasis on quality and materials [8] Retail & Payment Strategies - Increased rates of mobile use, with a mix of buy online pickup in store, curbside pickup, and delivery [5] - New ways of payment are very different for younger customers [6] - Digital advertising for Walmart is in the $5 billion range [14] Company Performance & Strategies - Levi's focuses on direct to consumer strategy by opening their own stores globally [1] - Walmart is favored for its value story, delivery, curbside pickup, marketplace model, and digital advertising [14] - Walmart's leading grocery business accounts for 60% of its revenue [15] M&A and IPO - Selective M&A is possible, especially in beauty, skincare, longevity, and niche fragrances [13] - The market is getting better with the consumer on a more stable footing, making M&A totally possible [13] Luxury Market - Jewelry is outperforming the rest of the luxury world, especially gold jewelry [9][10] - Handbag prices have gotten extreme, making jewelry prices compelling [11] - Creative leadership matters in luxury brands, driving desire and new design [7]

Core Insights - Americans are expected to spend heavily during the Thanksgiving weekend, benefiting various exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to consumer spending [1] - A record 186.9 million shoppers are anticipated from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, indicating a rise from 183.4 million last year [2] - Black Friday remains the leading shopping day, with an estimated 130.4 million shoppers, followed by Cyber Monday with 73.9 million [3] Spending Strength & Patterns - Shoppers expect to spend an average of $542 over the five-day period, an increase from $529 in 2024, with Millennials projected to spend an average of $764 per person [4] - About 36% of consumers plan to spend more than last year, with Gen Z leading the trend, as nearly 60% indicate they will increase their spending compared to 2024 [5] - 83% of shoppers plan to shop in physical stores, while 83% will shop online for delivery, and 58% intend to order online and pick up in-store [6] Retail Strategies - Retailers are offering fewer and shorter promotions this year, which may support profit margins, although Walmart's aggressive discounts could pressure competitors [7] - Walmart shares have increased by 17% year-to-date as of November 21, 2025, and gained 2.6% last week [7] Likely ETF Winners - The following ETFs are expected to benefit from Thanksgiving weekend spending: SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY), ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN), Amplify Digital Payments ETF (IPAY), iShares FinTech Active ETF (BPAY), and Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF (PSCD) [8]

Group 1 - Retail stocks are showing modest gains in a holiday-shortened trading session, with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) up 0.2% and the S&P 500 gaining 0.3% [1] - Big-box retailers are leading the market, with Walmart up 0.8%, Costco Wholesale gaining 0.5%, and Target rising 1.5%, while specialty retailers have mixed performance, exemplified by Best Buy's decline of 1.6% [2]

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Consumer Behavior - The consumer is characterized as stable but choiceful, being careful with spending while still participating in key shopping events [2][4] - Retailers expect strong sales during the Turkey 5 holiday weekend, but a deeper drop-off in sales post-holiday is anticipated [3] Retail Environment - Retailers like Dick's Sporting Goods and Best Buy expect more promotional and deeper discounts this year due to consumer sensitivity to pricing [4] - Retailers are raising prices to create a cushion for deeper discounts during key events, reflecting the pressure on consumers [5] Technological Impact - The upcoming holiday season is expected to be the last before widespread adoption of artificial intelligence in shopping, which will change the competitive landscape [6][7] - Retailers will need to adjust quickly to a more commoditized pricing environment driven by technology [7] Profitability Strategies - Retail media and advertising sales are becoming increasingly important for retailer profitability as pricing becomes more ubiquitous [9] - Large, well-positioned retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, and Costco are expected to benefit from their technological advancements [10] Stock Performance - Target is actively working to improve its performance, and there is a belief that the stock's potential for successful improvement is greater than currently priced in [10]

Core Viewpoint - The decision between investing in Walmart and Costco may hinge on valuation, despite both companies showing strong financial results amid economic uncertainty [1]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Both Walmart and Costco reported a 6% annual growth in net sales in their most recent quarters, indicating similar sales performance [2]. Group 2: Profitability - Walmart's net income increased by 34% year over year, while Costco's net income rose by 11%. However, Costco's net income growth was closely aligned with its operating income, which increased by 10%, contrasting with Walmart's operating income, which fell by less than 1% due to higher operating expenses [3]. Group 3: Investment Gains - Walmart's recent profit increase was primarily driven by unrealized investment gains, which may not reflect sustainable operational performance [4]. Group 4: Valuation Comparison - Walmart's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 36, while Costco's is significantly higher at 50, making Walmart appear more reasonably valued compared to Costco, despite both companies being prominent retailers on a growth trajectory [6][7].