Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - US equity funds experienced an inflow of US$16.3 billion during the week of July 9, 2025, while bond funds saw an inflow of US$20.8 billion, indicating a mixed performance in US fund flows [1] - Global funds continued to attract strong inflows, totaling US$5.1 billion, while European funds had an inflow of US$1.4 billion, primarily into regional ETFs [1] - Emerging Market (EM) funds also saw significant inflows, with US$2.9 billion into EM funds, and US$3.0 billion into GEM funds, marking the fourth consecutive week of strong subscriptions [2] Summary by Sections US Fund Flows - US equity funds had an inflow of US$16.3 billion, while bond funds attracted US$20.8 billion during the week of July 9, 2025 [1] - Mixed flows were observed in US funds, with US$9.5 billion inflows into ETFs countered by US$6.1 billion in redemptions from non-ETFs [1] Global and European Fund Flows - Global funds saw inflows of US$5.1 billion, and European funds had an inflow of US$1.4 billion, mainly into regional ETFs [1] - The report highlights the continued strength of global fund inflows compared to US funds [1] Emerging Market Fund Flows - EM funds recorded an inflow of US$2.9 billion, with GEM funds attracting US$3.0 billion in subscriptions, indicating robust interest in emerging markets [2] - EMEA funds also experienced inflows of US$0.3 billion, while flows to Latin American funds slowed down, particularly in Chile, which saw US$156 million in net redemptions [2] Local Intelligence - Taiwan saw a net foreign inflow of US$1.2 billion, Korea had US$0.4 billion, and Japan experienced a significant foreign inflow of US$3.8 billion [3] - Southbound flows from China to Hong Kong remained strong at US$3.2 billion, reflecting ongoing investment interest in the region [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Hydraulic, anticipating a sequential business recovery driven by improving excavator component demand and potential growth in the humanoid robot sector [3][25]. Core Views - The report highlights that Hengli's earnings growth is expected to accelerate to 17% year-over-year (YoY) in 2Q25, up from only 3% YoY in 1Q25, primarily due to stronger demand for excavator components from Chinese OEMs and foreign customers [1][19]. - Revenue growth for Hengli is forecasted at 13% YoY in 2Q25, driven by the excavator component business, which is outpacing the overall growth of China's excavator industry [2][19]. - The report emphasizes that the market has not fully accounted for Hengli's potential to outgrow the Chinese excavator industry due to increased exports and restocking by foreign OEMs [2][19]. Financial Summary - Hengli's estimated net profit for 2Q25 is projected to be Rmb800 million, reflecting a 17% YoY increase and a 30% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase [2][8]. - The target price for Hengli is set at Rmb85.0, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40x for 2025E, which aligns with its historical average [26][7]. - The expected total return for Hengli's shares is 22.1%, comprising a 21.1% price return and a 1.0% dividend yield [4][7]. Market Position and Strategy - Hengli Hydraulic is recognized as China's leading hydraulic parts supplier, focusing on the research, development, and manufacturing of hydraulic components [24]. - The company is preparing to produce up to 100,000 planetary roller screws for humanoid robot clients by 2026, despite uncertainties in demand from clients [25]. - The report notes that losses from Hengli's Mexico and ball screw & linear guide plants are expected to decrease as production ramps up [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong property sector, indicating that the sector rating is supported by buying flows rather than solely fundamentals [9][37]. Core Insights - National support is seen as a game changer for Hong Kong, enhancing its position as a financial hub and protecting asset prices [8]. - The property sector represents approximately 5.8% of the Hang Seng Index, with expectations of increased buying flows due to China’s yield compression [9][17]. - Short-term buying flows are expected to benefit high-yield and index stocks, particularly after a pullback in July [9][39]. Summary by Sections I. National Support - National support strengthens Hong Kong's financial hub status, attracting talent and capital, which helps protect asset prices [8]. II. Flow Dynamics - The report highlights that new buying power from China’s yield compression is expected to continue into the second half of the year, with flows outpacing fundamentals in the short term [9]. - Southbound holdings in the Hong Kong property sector increased by 1% in the first half of 2025, reaching 2.4% [9]. - The mutual fund KPI reform in May 2025 is anticipated to drive additional buying flows into the property sector [16]. III. Fundamentals - The residential market is nearing a bottom, with easing oversupply and expectations for a profit upcycle starting in 2027 [51]. - Demand for residential properties is supported by household formation and an influx of new talent, with rent growth indicating underlying demand [51]. - The office market is showing signs of stabilization, particularly in Central, with positive absorption expected [50]. - Retail sales turned positive in May 2025, driven by increased visitation and a weaker Hong Kong dollar [2][50]. - Commercial real estate continues to face challenges, particularly for smaller developers, due to liquidity issues and funding pressures [34][49]. IV. Company Recommendations - Top picks for investment include Swire Properties, Hongkong Land, and Link REIT, with expectations of potential buybacks and stable dividends [39][40].

V i e w p o i n t | 11 Jul 2025 09:28:41 ET │ 11 pages US Economics What the Fed Said – Will tariff-related inflation show up? +1-212-816-0325 andrew.hollenhorst@citi.com Veronica Clark AC +1-212-816-8830 veronica1.clark@citi.com Gisela Young AC +1-212-816-8349 gisela.young@citi.com See Appendix A-1 for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Research Analyst Affiliations. Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with companies c ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [2]. Core Insights - The inventory of lithium held by battery makers and traders has increased by 6% week-over-week (WoW) and 18% month-over-month (MoM), reaching 41,430 tons, indicating a potential accumulation strategy by major battery makers in anticipation of strong production or possible future disruptions [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) for lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH) showed mixed results, with Li2CO3 priced at Rmb63.7k/ton and LiOH at Rmb57.4k/ton as of July 10, 2025, compared to Rmb62.1k/ton and Rmb57.6k/ton the previous week [1]. - China's Li2CO3 production increased by 4% WoW to 18,813 tons, with contributions from various sources: brine (+2%), lepidolite (+5%), spodumene (+5%), and recycling (-1%) [1]. Summary by Sections Inventory Analysis - Total inventory of Li2CO3 reached 140,793 tons this week, reflecting a 2% increase WoW. The inventory breakdown includes downstream players (40,765 tons, +1% WoW), smelters (58,598 tons, 0% change), and battery makers/traders (41,430 tons, +6% WoW) [1]. Production Insights - The production of Li2CO3 in China was reported at 18,813 tons, marking a 4% increase WoW. The production from brine, lepidolite, and spodumene sources saw increases of 2%, 5%, and 5% respectively, while recycling output decreased by 1% WoW [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to companies such as Caterpillar (CAT), CNH Industrial (CNH), and Cummins (CMI), while some companies like AGCO are rated "Neutral" [5][137]. Core Insights - The report suggests that global equipment markets may bottom in 2025, particularly for agricultural machinery, with a cautious optimism for recovery in truck and construction markets [12][18]. - The "Big Beautiful Bill" is viewed positively for machinery fundamentals, with provisions supporting equipment demand and domestic industrial activity [29][33]. - Tariff impacts are expected to have a significant influence on demand and margins, with potential upside for companies in the second half of 2025 as tariff rates stabilize [21][23]. Key Machinery Themes - Agricultural machinery has outperformed other sectors, attributed to a cycle trough in global demand [6]. - Machinery stocks are currently not pricing in tariff concerns, although demand uncertainty remains prevalent [8]. - The report anticipates a decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026 due to high new machine prices and elevated used inventories [16]. Construction - The outlook for non-residential construction spending remains stable, supported by mega project backlogs growing at a ~17% CAGR from 2024-2029 [38]. - Contractor profit margins have improved slightly, but project cancellations due to tariffs have increased significantly [45][48]. - The report expects global construction equipment sales volume to bottom in 2025, with a recovery anticipated in 2026 [50]. Mining and Oil & Gas - The mining equipment outlook is stable, with solid expectations for mining capex and miner EBITDA, driven by strong commodity prices [61]. - The oil and gas sector faces challenges with falling crude prices, leading to a weak near-term outlook for upstream spending [67]. NA Rental - The rental equipment market is expected to see steady growth, with total URI rental revenue growth projected at 4.0% in 2025 [73]. - The industry has consolidated, with the top 10 players now accounting for ~40% of the market, leading to better pricing discipline [78]. - NA rental penetration is above pre-pandemic levels, with specialty rental areas identified as key growth opportunities [80]. Ag Equipment - The US grain market is stabilizing but remains relatively depressed, with high new machinery prices impacting farmer sentiment [85][90]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in North American large agricultural sales in 2026, with a potential recovery in 2027 [92]. - Positive trends are noted in Europe and South America, with expectations for growth in agricultural sales in those regions [95][98]. Commercial Vehicles - The commercial vehicle market shows weak freight fundamentals, with spot rates remaining depressed [111]. - Class 8 tractor inventories are in reasonable shape, but overall market conditions suggest a weak outlook [113]. - The report indicates that pre-buying expectations for 2026 may be overly optimistic due to ongoing market weakness [120]. Short Cycle - Industrial PMIs have retreated, indicating a choppy macro backdrop, but there is cautious optimism for recovery in 2026 [126]. - Demand remains stable, but recent order traction may have been influenced by tariff pre-buying [128]. - Companies in the automation space are showing positive forward commentary, indicating potential growth despite uncertainty [131].

V i e w p o i n t | 05 Jun 2025 18:23:54 ET │ 28 pages Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas Consumer prices move first, growth fundamentals come second CITI'S TAKE Hard data in the US has finally started to soften, with a longer lag to soft data that has been in place post-COVID. Equity markets have correctly ignored this, given the backward-looking nature of data. We remain overweight equities and go long NDX/RTY trade (equity view and trade idea owned by Giammarco Miani) as the AI trade is recove ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Sieyuan Electric, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [4][8]. Core Insights - Sieyuan Electric reported a net profit increase of 45.7% year-on-year to Rmb1,293 million in 1H25, surpassing market expectations [1][11]. - Revenue grew by 37.8% year-on-year to Rmb8,497 million, significantly exceeding the company's target of over 20% growth for 2025 [1][11]. - The net profit surge was attributed to both revenue growth and net margin expansion, which increased by 0.8 percentage points to 15.2% [1][11]. - The company aims for new orders to grow over 25% year-on-year in 2025, with a focus on international markets and non-grid customers [2][8]. - Sieyuan's R&D expenses were 7% of revenue in 2024, supporting new business developments such as energy storage systems and advanced switchgear [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025E, net profit is forecasted to reach Rmb2,660 million, reflecting a growth of 29.8% year-on-year [3][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) improved to 9.89%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points year-on-year [1][11]. Market Position - Sieyuan's overseas orders accounted for approximately 30% of total orders, with significant growth from regions like the Middle East and South America [2][8]. - The company has established a strong presence in the UHV gas insulated switchgear market, enhancing its market recognition [6][8]. Valuation - The target price for Sieyuan Electric is set at Rmb87.00 per share, based on a discounted cash flow model, indicating a potential upside of 24.3% from the current price [4][12]. - The expected total return, including dividend yield, is projected at 25.2% [4].

Investment Ratings - Amphenol (APH) is rated as Buy with a target price of $115 based on a 35x P/E multiple for F24M EPS [1][49][51] - TE Connectivity (TEL) is upgraded to Buy with a target price of $200 based on a 20x P/E multiple for F24M EPS [1][57][60] Core Insights - The report maintains a constructive outlook on the connector industry, driven by solid demand fundamentals and increased electrification across various end markets [9][58] - Recent stabilization in automotive market production and improving industrial demand are key factors for the upgrade of TEL to Buy [1][9] - Amphenol is expected to benefit from AI-led demand and a balanced end market exposure, while TEL is positioned for margin expansion due to improved industrial demand [1][33][58] Summary by Sections Amphenol (APH) - APH is a leading manufacturer in the connector market with a diversified end market exposure, including industrial (23%), automotive (17%), and IT data communications (37%) [49][50] - The company is expected to see above-market sales and earnings growth driven by technology hardware spending and AI infrastructure [50][51] - The target price of $115 reflects a premium to its historical P/E multiple, indicating strong growth potential [51][52] TE Connectivity (TEL) - TEL is the largest electronics connector company, with a significant portion of its revenue (40%) coming from the automotive sector [56][57] - The company is expected to benefit from stabilizing automotive trends and improving industrial demand, with a strong balance sheet supporting its growth [58][60] - The target price of $200 is based on a valuation that aligns with its long-term median P/E, reflecting its market position and growth prospects [60] Market Trends - The connector market is anticipated to show continued momentum in 2025, supported by growth in IT Datacom and industrial automation spending [58] - The automotive market is stabilizing, which is crucial for TEL as it represents a significant revenue source [9][58] - AI demand is expected to ramp up, particularly in the data center segment, which is beneficial for both APH and TEL [15][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a low expectation for cyclical policy changes in the upcoming mid-year Politburo meeting, indicating a cautious investment outlook for the industry [3][4][5]. Core Insights - Policymakers are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach while leaving room for small-scale support measures, particularly a potential quasi-fiscal stimulus of approximately RMB500 billion [3][6][8]. - The focus on anti-involution initiatives suggests a shift towards Supply Side Reform 2.0, with expected actions to cut low-efficient capacity and enhance supply for higher-end products [4][5]. - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Party Congress may provide high-level guidance on the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing strategic planning over numeric targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Tools - Monetary policy is expected to include a 10 basis points cut in the policy rate and a 50 basis points reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) [6][7]. - Structural policy tools will likely be reactivated, with a focus on a size of approximately RMB500 billion for policy-finance instruments [6][7]. - Fiscal policies will not see an interim budget revision or an increase in government bond quotas, but will include continued trade-in policies, childcare subsidies, and further property support [6][7]. Supply Side Reform - The report anticipates various actions across sectors, including capacity cuts, regulation tightening, and fine-tuning of industrial policies [4][7]. - The emphasis on medium-term structural issues will likely include discussions on economic rebalancing, particularly in consumption and industrial policies [5][6].