A c t i o n | 13 Apr 2025 18:44:11 ET │ 19 pages Huaming Power Equipment (002270.SZ) Moderate Net Profit Growth in 2025E with Strong Indirect Export CITI'S TAKE We keep our Buy rating on global top tap changer maker Huaming as (i) tap changer revenues will rise double digits from overseas and low single digit from domestics in 2025E; (ii) tap changer GP margin will be stable in 2025E with more sales from high margin products; and (iii) strong new orders from indirect exports in 2025E. Our 2025E net profit r ...

14 Apr 2025 00:00:21 ET │ 18 pages Volatilityhas grippedmarkets following "LiberationDay."Atrecentlows,major equity markets were pricing in flat-ish EPS growth, but not a recession. While markets have subsequently priced out some tariff-related risks, EPS downgrades are likely to continue. Late last year, we suggested investors shouldbegindiversifyingaway fromtheUS—recentdevelopments (DeepSeek, Europeanfiscal,tradetensions)havereinforcedthis view.WeupgradeJapanto Overweight, joining our pre-existing prefere ...

花旗速度 --- Citi Velocity CitiPoint Asia: Turmoil In The Treasury Market? When To Start Panicking 花旗亚洲：国债市场动荡？何时开始恐慌 Markets 市 场 Mohammed Apabhai 穆罕默 Apr 11, 2025 1:03PM CST美国中部时间 2025 年 4 ⽉ 11 ⽇ 1:03PM Asia Trading Strategies 亚洲交易策略 NOT A PRODUCT OF CITI RESEARCH ‒ INTENDED FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. ⾮花旗研究部产品，仅供机构客⼾使⽤。 MACRO: TURMOIL IN THE TREASURY MARKET? WHEN TO START PANICKING 宏观：国债市场动荡？何时开始恐慌 Press reports, including from the BBC and CNN, have suggested that one of the reasons why President Trump ba ...

花旗速度 CitiPoint Asia: Who Is Winning The Currency War - Why Europe Could Be Facing Disinflation 花旗观点亚洲：谁是货币战争的赢家--欧洲为何可能⾯临通货紧缩 Markets 市场 Mohammed Apabhai 穆罕默德-阿帕巴伊 21 hours ago Asia Trading Strategies 亚洲交易策略 NOT A PRODUCT OF CITI RESEARCH ‒ INTENDED FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. ⾮花旗研究部产品，仅供机构客⼾使⽤。 MACRO: WHO IS WINNING THE CURRENCY WAR - WHY EUROPE IS FACING DISINFLATION 宏观：谁是货币战争的赢家--欧洲为何⾯临通货紧缩 In a recent piece we showed how the currency markets were an integral part of the trade war (How To Win A Trade ...

V i e w p o i n t | 09 Apr 2025 15:02:51 ET │ 9 pages US Economics 90-day tariff pause not as helpful as it sounds CITI'S TAKE Pausing reciprocal tariffs excluding China does not mean the US economy has avoided a slowdown in growth and rise in inflation. The 10% baseline tariff, additional 125% tariffs on most Chinese goods and sector-specific tariffs raise the average US effective tariff rate by about 21pp from its level at the beginning of the year. Uncertainty over trade will persist and non- China impor ...

Flash | 09 Apr 2025 14:16:55 ET │ 9 pages China Economics Reciprocal Retaliation to Reciprocal Tariffs (II) CITI'S TAKE China retaliated against the additional 50% US tariffs. We see limited direct damage as the bilateral tariffs could already be prohibitive. Yet the escalation does not bode well for negotiation, and it could raise the risk for tensions to spill over into other domains like finance. We now see a greater chance for domestic stimulus to be brought forward. Tariffs: China's tariff on US goods ...

V i e w p o i n t | 07 Apr 2025 18:56:35 ET │ 22 pages Greater China Semiconductors China Retaliatory Tariff Makes Domestic Analog a Defensive Haven China's retaliatory tariff provides cost advantage to its mature semis — On April 4, China announced a 34% retaliatory tariff on all US imports (Bloomberg). While still relying on US advanced chips (GPU/CPU/MCU), China's tariff allows domestic mature semis a cost advantage over the US competition. We view analog (SG Micro), CIS (Will Semi), and RFFE (Maxscend) ...

NOT A PRODUCT OF CITI RESEARCH – INTENDED FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. 非花旗研究部产品，仅供机构客户使用。 MACRO: TRUMP RETALIATION THREAT TO CHINA - FINANCIAL EQUIVALENT OF THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS? 宏观：特朗普对中国的报复威胁--相当于古巴导弹危机的金融问题？ CitiPoint Asia: Trump China Retaliation Threat - Financial Equivalent Of The Cuban Missile Crisis? 花旗亚洲：特朗普对华报复威胁--古巴导弹危机的金融等价物？ Markets 市场 Mohammed Apabhai 穆罕默德-阿帕巴伊 3 hours ago Asia Trading Strategies 亚洲交易策略 Last Friday we suggested that the China's announcement of a 34% tariff on all US imp ...

2025/4/4 22:48 花旗速度 CitiPoint Asia: How To Win A Trade War And The Fight Against Inflation - Part III Markets Mohammed Apabhai Apr 02, 2025 1:38PM CST Asia Trading Strategies NOT A PRODUCT OF CITI RESEARCH – INTENDED FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. MACRO: HOW TO WIN A TRADE WAR AND THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION - PART III Over the past few days, press reports have suggested a number of different options that President Trump has in terms of tariffs. Assuming that this is all a negotiating ploy in an attempt to ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved in the trade war and inflation context Core Insights - The report discusses the implications of President Trump's proposed tariffs on various trading partners, suggesting that significant tariffs could restore trade balance with countries like Canada, Mexico, and China [2][5] - It highlights the importance of currency movements in trade wars, indicating that retaliatory currency devaluation could be a more effective strategy than imposing tariffs [12][28] - The analysis suggests that the outcome of the trade war may hinge on China's currency policy, with potential implications for US inflation and economic stability [25][28] Summary by Sections Tariff Implications - President Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs, with Canada likely to retaliate against $107 billion of US exports, which constitutes over a third of all US exports to Canada [5] - The report outlines potential tariffs, including a 40% tariff on EU imports and up to a 65% tariff on imports from Taiwan, aimed at restoring trade balance [2] Trade War Analysis - The report provides a historical perspective on the trade war with China, noting that by May 2019, the US had imposed 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese imports, resulting in a net cost to the US of $62.9 billion due to China's currency devaluation [6][8] - It emphasizes that currency movements play a critical role in the trade war dynamics, with the CAD devaluing by 6.6% against the USD since mid-September [12] Currency and Inflation Dynamics - The report posits that countries should consider currency devaluation as a response to tariffs to optimize their inflation outlook, rather than solely focusing on trade deficits [12][28] - It discusses the relationship between inflation and currency strength, suggesting that the US needs a strengthening of the yen and USD to achieve its inflation targets [23][24] Game Theory and Central Bank Strategies - The report employs a Game Theory framework to analyze the optimal strategies for central banks in response to trade tensions, indicating that cooperation among major economies is unlikely [26] - It concludes that the US's inflation targets may not be achievable without significant currency adjustments, which could lead to deflationary pressures in the US while reflating economies like China [27][28]