策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.16 略 研 究 "中国版平准基金"的加法与方向 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 本报告导读： 中央汇金明确资本市场"国家队"、"平准基金"的定位，起到了稳定指数、提振信 心的积极效果。在大盘价值板块持续布局外，其在科技成长方向的定价权也在攀升。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 A 股 策 略 专 题 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880520120005 黄维驰(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880520110005 [Table_Summary] 在外部环境扰动的背景下，"中国版平准基金"的入市起到了稳定指数、 提振信心的积极作用。近期，中央汇金公司明确表示将发挥类"平准基 金"作用，看好中国资本市场发展前景，并再次增持指数基金。这一举 措不仅向市场传递了底线思维信号，还凝聚了市场共识，推动投资者从 短期波动中聚焦长期价值。中央汇金公司作为资本市场的"国家队"， 其增持行为有利于快速稳定市场情绪，助力市场底部企稳。此外，央行 也明确表示，必要时将向中央汇金公司提供充 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.16 AMAT 购入 Besi 9%流通股 [Table_Industry] 半导体设备 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 混合键合解决方案正成为人工智能芯片与先进封装的关键突破 | [table_Authors] 舒迪(分析师) | 肖隽翀(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880521070002 | S0880525040064 | 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 跟 踪 报 本报告导读： 应用材料公司将混合键合解决方案视为一项战略性的长期投资，宣布购入 Besi 9% 的流通股，双方将共同开发混合键合解决方案，建议关注国内相关公司的进展。 告 [Table_Summary] 行业观点与投资建议：Hybrid 技术 2022 年在逻辑制程领域开始规 模量产，2024 年迎来第二波需求潮。预估 2025-2026 期间，存储领 域有望开始采用 Hybrid Bonding 技术；2027-20 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.16 一汽奥迪携手华为推广智能化 [Table_Industry] 汽车 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——传统车企转型观察 登记编号S0880525040050 本报告导读： 一汽奥迪携手华为，发力汽车智能化布局，相关零部件配套公司值得重视。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 [table_Authors] 刘一鸣(分析师) 021-38676666 [Table_Summary] 推荐奥迪产业链汽车零部件公司：继峰股份、科博达等，受益公司 一汽富维等。我们认为，一汽奥迪与华为合作后，奥迪的智能化短 板将被弥补；而作为传统豪华车巨头，奥迪在车身、底盘方面的设 计经验优势有望支持公司销量继续向上。我们维持行业"增持"评 级，受益标的主要为智能化产业链零部件公司。 奥迪携手华为转型智能化。根据一汽奥迪官网，2025 年一汽奥迪全 部新车型都将搭载奥迪与中国领先科技企业华为携手联合研发的高 阶智能驾驶辅助系统，包括一汽奥迪 A5L、新奥迪 Q5L、全新奥迪 A6L e-t ...

产业观察 [table_Header]2025.04.16 关税冲突下低空产业：短期冲击有限，长期加速国产替代 产业研究中心 ——低空产业跟踪 11 期 摘要： [本报告导读： Table_Summary] 自美国"对等关税"推出以来，中美贸易关税税率持续升级。对国内 低空产业而言，我们认为短期冲击存在但有限，中长期利于核心环节 的国产替代。 产业要点： | [Table_Authors] | 徐淋(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880523090005 | | | 周天乐(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880520010003 | | | 肖洁(分析师) | 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880513080002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 of 10 关税冲突下低空产业：短期冲击有限，长期加速国产替代。自美 国"对等关税"推出以来，中美贸易关税税率持续升级。对国内 低空产业而言，我们认为短期冲击存在但有限，中长期利于核心 环节的国产替代，核心在于： 第一，与民航产业不同， ...

策略研究 / 2025.04.15 聚焦内需新动力与外贸新格局 方奕(分析师) 021-38676666 主题风向标4月第2期 登记编与 S0880520120005 本报告导读: 苏徽(分析师) 主题交易热度显著提升,内外需方向交替走强。关注"两重两新"等内需政策加力 和外贸格局的新变化。推荐:内需消费/周边经济/自主可控/并购重组。 管 元编亏 投资要点: 主题温度计:主题交易热度显著提升,内外需方向交替走强。4月 7 日-4 月 11 日热点主题日均成交额平均 6.59 亿元,日均换手率 4.18%,均大幅提升。关税事件扰动下本期主题走势先抑后扬,随着 关税冲击烈度的变化交易结构上内外需方向轮动,社服零售、农业 等内需方向率先走强而外贸方向回调,随后关税批动烈度回落且部 分领域商品豁免预期提升,消费电子等外贸方向反弹。热点主题资 金整体显著净流入核心资产方向,小市值类主题资金净流出。主题 交易的核心叙事逻辑从交易关税冲击切换到交易提振内需政策和关 税冲击的烈度下降,情绪扰动逐步减弱投资逻辑有望回归内需与科 技主线,关注"两重两新"等内需政策加力和外贸格局的新变化。 主题一:内需消费。内需有望成为拉动经济 ...

[table_Authors] 秦和平(分析师) 本报告导读： 关税博弈持续，美元资产波动中显现配置机遇，芯片成为本轮中美博弈重要抓手， 新规将芯片原产地认定为流片地。华为云推出 384 超节点，看好国内 AI 进展加速。 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.14 关税博弈，海外资产波动中显现新机遇 [Table_Industry] 海外科技 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——海外科技行业 2025 年第 14 期 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880523110003 [Table_Summary] 大盘行情上，（2025.4.6-2025.4.12）恒生指数下跌 8.47%，恒生科技 指数下跌 7.77%，道琼斯工业指数上涨 4.95%，纳斯达克指数上涨 7.29%。 关税博弈持续，美元资产走弱，波动中显现配置机遇。中美关税博 弈持续，特朗普政府提高对华关税税率至 145%，中方反制关税税率 至 125%。当前阶段，市场关注焦点已从税率数字转移至全球贸易格 局重塑的可能性，风险溢价上升推动美国债收益率持续攀升，10 年 期国债上周累计上涨 49 个基点，创 200 ...

2024 年业绩展现韧性，2025 年收购增厚盈利 皖通高速(600012) ——皖通高速 2024 年业绩点评 [Table_Industry] 运输/工业 | | ——皖通高速 2024 | 年业绩点评 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 岳鑫(分析师) | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 22.40 | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | | 登记编号 S0880514030006 | S0880124070025 | | | | | [Table_Trend] 升幅(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对升幅 | 10% | 4% | 27% | | 相对指数 | 14% | 2% | 21% | 本报告导读： 皖通高速 2024 年业绩展现韧性。2025 年一季度末完成集团优质路产注入，将增厚 业绩。未来行业政策优化或加速，将保障改扩建合 ...

Inflation Data Summary - In March 2025, the US CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from February, and below the market expectation of 2.5%[2] - The core CPI year-on-year was 2.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from January and also below the market expectation of 3%[6] - Month-on-month, the CPI decreased by 0.1%, marking the first negative value since July 2022, while the core CPI adjusted month-on-month was 0.1%[6] Contributing Factors to Inflation Changes - The decline in inflation was primarily driven by a slowdown in energy prices and core services excluding rent[2] - Energy inflation year-on-year was -3.3%, a significant drop of 3.1 percentage points from February, contributing to a near 0.2 percentage point decrease in both year-on-year and month-on-month CPI growth[8] - Core service inflation, excluding rent, saw a year-on-year decrease from 3.8% in February to 3.3% in March, with a month-on-month slowdown to 0.3%[15] Market Implications - The weakening of the US dollar's credit foundation has led to simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currencies, with investors showing decreased confidence in dollar assets[5] - Despite the unexpected cooling of inflation data, the market did not react significantly, as the effects of tariffs on inflation have yet to fully materialize[20] - There is a potential risk of further increases in US Treasury yields due to the weakening dollar credit foundation and anticipated inflation pressures from tariffs in the second quarter[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.56 CNY [6][12] Core Views - The distribution business shows steady growth, while the retail segment faces pressure due to policy changes and impairment losses. The company is optimizing store operations and focusing on its own brand to drive retail transformation, leveraging the synergy between wholesale and retail [2][12] - The company aims for "high-quality development" as its core strategy, enhancing efficiency through innovation in the distribution segment and improving profitability in the retail segment via store optimization and brand development [12] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 743.78 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.46% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 642 million CNY, down 59.83% [4][12] - The distribution business is expected to generate revenue of 529.84 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 1.98%, while the retail segment is projected to decline to 223.57 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.41% [12] - The company plans to adjust its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.63 CNY and 2.82 CNY, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 3.04 CNY [12] Business Segments - The distribution segment is focusing on high-quality development, optimizing product structure, and increasing the proportion of innovative drugs, which is expected to drive future growth [12] - The retail segment is undergoing significant adjustments, shifting from scale growth to high-quality development, with a focus on loss management and the expansion of self-owned brands [12] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 13.72 billion CNY, with a current stock price of 24.65 CNY [7][12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 21.35 for 2024, decreasing to 8.12 by 2027 [4][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1][11]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with a focus on market share, gradual improvement in the domestic market, and continued rapid growth in overseas markets. The cost improvement benefits are expected to continue into 2025, leading to sustained steady growth in performance [3][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 15,197 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,325 million, up 4.1% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.52 [5][11]. - The company anticipates revenue growth of over 10% for 2025, with a focus on "steady growth, increasing sales volume, enhancing profits, and expanding new products" [11]. Business Performance - The company's yeast and deep processing/sugar/packaging/food raw materials/other business revenues for 2024 are expected to grow by 14.2%, -26.1%, -2.8%, +31.7%, and +42.1% respectively. The main business growth rate is expected to outperform the overall revenue growth rate [11]. - Domestic and overseas revenues are projected to increase by 7.5% and 19.4% respectively, driven by precise marketing strategies that ensure steady growth in the sales volume of leading products [11]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to decrease by 0.7 percentage points to 21.4%, but is projected to improve in Q4 2024, with a gross margin of 24.1%, reflecting a marginal improvement [11]. - The company is actively optimizing its organizational structure to enhance overall efficiency, with expectations for domestic improvements and effective overseas localization strategies [11].