国内政策细则出台助推太空算力发展，再提能源强国指引核聚 变进程 机械行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 黄龙(分析师) | 021-38031028 | huanglong@gtht.com | S0880525070027 | 本报告导读： 上周（2025/12/8-2025/12/12）机械设备指数涨跌幅为+1.80%。国内政策细则出台， 助推太空算力进程；中央经济工作会议战略指引可控核聚变发展；半导体设备销售 稳步增长，多晶硅产能整合收购平台正式落地； 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《可控核聚变行业招标显著加速，联创 光电与中国能建签署战略协议》2025.12.14 机械行业《特斯拉开启新一轮审厂，国内本体厂 量产落地加速》2025.12.13 机械行业《AI 端侧守正、人形机器人出奇，3C 供应链重拾成长》2025.12.10 机械行 ...

产业观察 [table_Header] 2025.12.16 【新材料产业周报】三井化学宣布突破高折射率光学树脂 晶片，GEO 等多家新材料公司完成融资 产业研究中心 摘要： [Table_Summary] 产业发展动态：（以下均来源于化工新材料公众号） 三井化学宣布突破高折射率光学树脂晶片。12 月 10 日，三井化学宣布研 发出全球首款折射率高达 1.67 和 1.74 的 12 英寸 Diffrar®AR 眼镜光学树 脂晶片（光波导），该系列产品包含两种折射率，以及 6 英寸（仅为样品）、 8 英寸和 12 英寸三种晶圆尺寸。 2025 化学与材料科学研究十大热点前沿公布。12 月 3 日，中国科学院科 技战略咨询研究院、中国科学院文献情报中心与科睿唯安联合发布的 《2025 研究前沿》报告，遴选出 2025 年全球较为活跃或发展迅速的 128 个研究前沿，并对相关学科的发展趋势进行了研判。化学与材料科学领域 Top10 热点前沿主要分布在合成化学、材料回收与循环利用、锂电池、能 源材料等研究方向。合成化学方向有四项，分别是苯环的生物电子等排体 合成、COF 光催化合成过氧化氢、电化学还原二氧化碳制多碳 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 55.86 CNY [5][20]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the development, production, and service of high-reliability embedded computers, with products widely used in high-end equipment, particularly in the defense sector, which is expected to maintain strong demand [2][21]. - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 1.14 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2.02 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 0.66, 0.98, and 1.16 CNY [14][20]. - The global military embedded systems market is expected to grow from 1.81 billion USD in 2024 to 3.23 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 7.5% [10][20]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to increase from 663 million CNY in 2023 to 1.208 billion CNY in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 70.7% in 2025 [4][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from 19 million CNY in 2024 to 202 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a substantial growth trajectory [4][11]. - The company’s gross margin is anticipated to improve from 44.84% in 2025 to 50.75% in 2027, indicating effective cost control and operational efficiency [16][17]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned as a leader in high-reliability embedded computers, serving critical sectors such as aerospace and defense, with a focus on customized solutions [21][30]. - The demand for embedded computers in military applications is expected to rise due to the increasing complexity and technological advancement of military equipment [10][20]. - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in commercial aerospace and unmanned systems, which are projected to become significant growth areas [10][20]. Order and Revenue Growth - The company reported a significant increase in orders, with a 73.71% year-on-year growth in backlog orders, driven by rising customer demand [10][20]. - The embedded computer market for airborne and missile applications is expected to see substantial growth, with projected increases of 43.62% and 192.7% respectively from 2025 to 2027 [15][20]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has successfully optimized its cost structure, leading to improved profitability metrics, with net profit margins expected to rise from 15.3% in 2025 to 16.7% in 2027 [16][39]. - The management has implemented effective cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in operating expenses as a percentage of revenue [39][42]. Investment and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on R&D investments to enhance its product offerings in unmanned systems and commercial aerospace, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [10][20]. - The strategic initiatives include launching fundraising projects aimed at developing embedded computing solutions for new markets, positioning the company for long-term growth [10][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.77 CNY, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 15% [11][19]. Core Insights - The company plans to increase its investment in its subsidiary, China Aerospace Long March Rocket Technology Co., Ltd., by 727.5 million CNY to enhance its capabilities in aerospace electronic information and to engage in key technology research and development, aligning with the new commercial aerospace landscape [3][11]. - The investment will primarily support the production capacity of aerospace electronic information-related businesses, including telemetry and control systems, and is expected to meet the growing demand in the aerospace industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [11]. - The company has achieved significant technological advancements over the past two decades, positioning itself as a leader in ground measurement and control, data link networking, and space information networks, which will be further strengthened by this capital increase [11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 18.727 billion CNY in 2023, with a decrease to 14.280 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 21.469 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7% from 2023 to 2027 [5][12]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 525 million CNY in 2023 to 846 million CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 39.9% in 2026 [5][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.16 CNY in 2023 to 0.26 CNY in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5][12]. Market Data - The company's stock has a 52-week price range of 8.14 CNY to 15.82 CNY, with a current market capitalization of 52.195 billion CNY [6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 99.45 in 2023 to 61.72 in 2027, suggesting an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][12]. - The company has a net asset return rate (ROE) projected to increase from 2.6% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2027, reflecting enhanced efficiency in generating profits from equity [7][12].

2025 年 1-10 月，医保统筹基金收入增长平稳，支出同比放缓，其中城乡居民医保收 入和支出均小幅下降。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 医保收入增长平稳，支出同比放缓 [Table_Industry] 医药 医保基金运行月报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | | 赵峻峰(分析师) | 0755-23976629 | zhaojunfeng@gtht.com | S0880519080017 | 本报告导读： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.16 医药《医保支持创新，持续推荐创新药械产业 链》2025.12.14 医药《优化集采，支持医药产业创新发展》 2025.12.14 医药《政策拉动国内市场有效复苏，医疗设备招 采保持快速增长》2025.12.10 医药《医保战略购买引导医药产业创新发展》 2025.12.07 医药《药价透明公开，促进 ...

我们看好公司来水大幅好转下业绩的修复，新增火电机组有望贡献业绩增量，另外 公司进入稳定运营期分红有望提升。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 18,669 | 20,031 | 18,919 | 20,248 | 20,333 | | (+/-)% | -9.3% | 7.3% | -5.5% | 7.0% | 0.4% | | 净利润(归母) | 1,749 | 1,814 | 2,707 | 2,403 | 2,454 | | (+/-)% | 50.4% | 3.7% | 49.2% | -11.2% | 2.1% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.35 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄) | 18.58 | 17.91 | 12.01 | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Insights - The establishment of wealth management companies by banks in 2025 is expected to stabilize and positively contribute to income, especially with favorable equity market conditions enhancing performance elasticity [2]. - The wealth management market has surpassed 30 trillion yuan, accounting for 18.8% of the large asset management market, indicating a shift towards standardized development [7][9]. - The risk appetite for wealth management investments has marginally increased, with a notable shift in asset allocation towards high liquidity assets and public funds [32][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management Development - The total scale of wealth management products has exceeded 30 trillion yuan, with 4.39 million products in circulation, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [7]. - By the end of Q3 2025, the scale of wealth management companies reached 29.28 trillion yuan, representing 91.1% of the total market, with 14 companies managing over 1 trillion yuan each [12][17]. 2. Changes in Product Types and Asset Investment Structure - The proportion of fixed income and hybrid products has steadily increased since 2024, while cash management products have significantly decreased [23]. - By Q3 2025, fixed income products accounted for 76.5% of the total wealth management products, with a notable decline in cash management products [23][24]. 3. Future Income Expectations - Wealth management income is anticipated to show stable and positive growth, with a significant recovery from a 43.2% year-on-year decline in 2023 to a narrower decline of 2.7% in 2024 [6][7]. - The transition period for asset management regulations is nearing completion, which is expected to alleviate previous income pressures [6][7]. 4. Investment Structure and Risk Appetite - The investment structure has shifted, with a decrease in bond investments and an increase in cash and bank deposits, reflecting a strategy to enhance liquidity [34]. - The risk appetite for equity investments has improved, with a notable increase in the proportion of public fund investments [37].

生产平稳、消费分化、投资承压。 投资要点： 宏观研究/[Table_Date] 2025.12.16 | | 021-23185646 | | --- | --- | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 分化延续，政策需加力 [Table_Authors] 李林芷(分析师) 2025 年 11 月经济数据点评 本报告导读： 美联储如期降息，开启技术性扩表 2025.12.11 通胀能否回升 2025.12.01 外需修复，推升供给 2025.11.30 同比转负，有待需求提振 2025.11.27 弱就业、强增长 2025.11.26 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 专 题 [Table_Summary] 11 月国民经济呈现"生产平稳、消费分化、投资承压"的特征。生产 端受假期扰 ...

——权益因子观察周报第 130 期 上周大市值风格占优，分析师、盈利因子 表现较好 本报告导读： 大类因子表现上，上周沪深 300 内超额收益较好的是分析师超预期、盈利、成长。 中证 500 内较好的是盈利、成长、分析师。中证 1000 内较好的是盈利、成长、分析 师。中证 2000 内较好的是分析师、盈利、成长。中证全指内较好的是分析师、分析 师超预期、盈利。沪深 300 增强上周超额 0.71%；本年超额 7.6%。中证 500 增强上 周超额-0.02%；本年超额 1.19%。中证 1000 增强上周超额-1.03%；本年超额 13.22%。 中证 2000 增强上周超额-0.67%；本年超额 27.14%。 投资要点： 金融工程 /[2025.12.16 Table_Date] | [Table_Authors] | 郑雅斌(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-23219395 | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 张雪杰(分析师) | | | 0755-23976751 | | | zhangxuej ...

最近一周外资明显回流互联网 [Table_Authors] 余培仪(分析师) ——12 月第 2 周全球外资周观察 本报告导读： ① 北向资金：最近一周可能小幅净流出，其中灵活型外资可能小幅净流入。②港 股：最近一周稳定型外资流入 25 亿港元，灵活型外资流出 213 亿港元，港股通 流入 62 亿港元。③亚太市场：外资本周流入日本，11 月外资流出印度。④美欧 市场：10 月资金流出欧洲，流入美国。 投资要点： 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.16 | | 021-23185663 | | --- | --- | | | yupeiyi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040084 | | | 陆嘉瑞(研究助理) | | | 021-23185659 | | | lujiarui@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880125042248 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 日股盈利预期自 11 月以来显著上修 2025.12.08 长线外资连续 5 周流入港股有色金属 2025.12.07 每周海内外重要政策跟踪（25/12/05） 2025 ...