春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情绪价值和体验 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 2026 年春节消费调研观察 春节线下零售和服务消费高景气，下沉市场客流更旺盛、线下消费更火热。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《史上最长春节假期，文旅板块景气 度高》2026.02.23 社会服务业《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋 缓》2026.02.09 社会服务业《乐购新春方案出台，关注春节消费 表现》2026.02.08 社会服务业《政策推动、供求双旺，景区板块迎 黄金投资期》2026.02.07 社会服务业《政策支持服务消费发展，关注春节 数据》2026.02.01 票 研 究 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读 ...

风险提示：行业竞争加剧；成长异常上行；食品安全风险 管理焕新，否极泰来可期 华润饮料(2460) 华润饮料（2460）更新报告 | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 13,515 | 13,521 | 11,104 | 12,465 | 13,945 | | (+/-)% | 7.1% | 0.0% | -18% | 12% | 12% | | 毛利润 | 6,035 | 6,397 | 5,067 | 5,785 | 6,520 | | 净利润 | 1,329 | 1,637 | 956 | 1,211 | 1,489 | | (+/-)% | 34.3% | 23.1% | -42% | 27% | 23% | | PE | - | 13.08 | 23.11 | 18.25 | 14.84 | | PB | - | 2.19 | 1.86 | 1.70 | 1.53 | | 资料来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 | | | | | | ...

"产品加服务",打造平安新的价值增长 中国平安(601318) ——中国平安更新报告 | [Table_Authors] 姓名 | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | | | 李嘉木(分析师) | 021-38038619 | lijiamu@gtht.com | S0880524030003 | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): | 88.53 | 本报告导读： 中国平安战略定位 "综合金融"+"医疗养老"，依据三大竞争优势打造的"产品 +服务"模式将带来盈利长期的稳定增长，构成中国平安新的价值增长极。 投资要点： 催化剂：推动商业健康险的制度性政策 风险提示：资本市场波动；利率曲线持续下移。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | - ...

投资要点： "产品加服务",打造平安新的价值增长 中国平安(601318) ——中国平安更新报告 | [Table_Authors] 姓名 | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | | | 李嘉木(分析师) | 021-38038619 | lijiamu@gtht.com | S0880524030003 | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): | 88.53 | 本报告导读： 中国平安战略定位 "综合金融"+"医疗养老"，依据三大竞争优势打造的"产品 +服务"模式将带来盈利长期的稳定增长，构成中国平安新的价值增长极。 催化剂：推动商业健康险的制度性政策 风险提示：资本市场波动；利率曲线持续下移。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the market in 2026 [5][8]. Core Insights - The release of Shanghai's "New Seven Measures" on February 25, 2026, is expected to effectively release pent-up reasonable demand, leading to a simultaneous recovery in both new and second-hand housing markets [3][5]. - The new policies include adjustments to purchase restrictions, optimization of housing provident fund loans, and improvements to property tax regulations, which are designed to stimulate market activity [5][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The new measures involve: - Reduction of purchase restrictions for non-local residents and single individuals, allowing them to buy multiple properties under certain conditions [5]. - Increase in the maximum loan amount for first-time homebuyers from 1.6 million CNY to 2.4 million CNY, with potential increases for families with multiple children and those purchasing green buildings [5]. - Property tax exemptions for local families under specific conditions, aimed at facilitating housing upgrades [5]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a "small spring" in the market characterized by increased transaction volumes and stable prices, driven by targeted policy measures that address qualification, funding, and cost [5][6]. - The combination of these policies is expected to effectively release previously accumulated reasonable demand, boosting both new and second-hand housing markets [5][6]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Development companies: Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Jin Di Group [5]. - Commercial and residential: China Resources Land and Longfor Group [5]. - Property management: Wanwu Cloud and China Overseas Property [5]. - Cultural tourism: Overseas Chinese Town A [5].

2025 银行经营指标拆解：分层扩张 vs 趋同修复 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) ——监管数据的时间序列分析 本报告导读： 2025 年银行业扩张指标分化、风险指标趋同改善，折射出"量力而行"的经营特征。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.25 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 票息行情未止：接续力量和可挖掘的标的 2026.02.24 节前蓄势，节后可期 2026.02.23 节前冲高回落，多头趋势还在吗？ 2026.02.23 交易盘续接行情，可以持续多久 2026.02.23 春节期间需关注的几件事 ——海外篇 2026.02.22 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 ...

Macro Insights - The report identifies three historical "great migrations" of Chinese household wealth, with the third migration starting in 2023, indicating a shift in asset allocation trends[3] - The first migration (1998-2018) saw a significant flow of deposits into real estate due to housing market reforms, establishing real estate as a core asset class[4] - The second migration (2018-2023) involved a return to deposits as real estate values declined and risk aversion increased among residents[5] - The third migration reflects a transition to a "deposit+" era, where residents are diversifying into financial products beyond traditional deposits due to lower interest rates and improved returns in bond and equity markets[6] Market Strategy - Foreign capital continues to flow into the market, with a net inflow of $3.7 million in foreign investment as of February 11, 2026, and a significant increase in public fund issuance, reaching 43.63 billion yuan[9] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.1 trillion yuan, while the proportion of stocks rising increased to 47.6%[8] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 44.18 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards active management strategies[9] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical market for anticoagulants is projected to grow from $52.9 billion in 2023 to over $110 billion by 2033, driven by aging populations and increasing cardiovascular disease rates[13] - The heavy-duty truck market in China is expected to see sales of 760,000 units in 2026, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while January 2026 saw a 46% increase in domestic heavy-duty truck sales compared to the previous year[16][17] - The aviation sector is experiencing a resurgence, with a 6% increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival period, and ticket prices are expected to rise by 3-4% year-on-year due to increased demand[30][32]

国内超细纤维龙头，技术突破开启转型新 ——聚杰微纤首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 本报告导读： 公司作为国内超纤龙头，超纤主业转型仿皮面料、无尘洁净制品等高端工业用途迎 来价值拐点。深度布局固态电池、具身智能等前沿科技，捕捉未来发展机会。 投资要点： | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | | | | | | | 营业总收入 | 685 | 600 | 592 | 653 | 749 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the traditional electronic fabric prices are expected to rise significantly in February, driven by a shortage of traditional fabric due to the conversion of weaving machines to produce AI specialty fabrics. As the largest producer of traditional fabric, the company stands to benefit greatly, with every 1 yuan increase in electronic fabric prices potentially adding 1 billion yuan to the company's profits [2][12]. - The company is projected to see a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027, with estimates raised to 0.88 yuan, 1.24 yuan (+0.19), and 1.39 yuan (+0.19) respectively. The target price has been adjusted to 37.16 yuan based on a comparable company PE of 29.97 times for 2026 [12][14]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 14,876 million yuan in 2023 to 23,351 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from 3,044 million yuan in 2023 to 5,552 million yuan in 2027, with a notable increase of 44.8% in 2025 and 40.1% in 2026 [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.76 yuan in 2023 to 1.39 yuan in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 10.6% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2027 [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 27.62 yuan, with a target price of 37.16 yuan, indicating a potential upside [6][7]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 110,567 million yuan and a total share capital of 4,003 million shares [7][8]. - The stock has shown a significant absolute increase of 149% over the past 12 months [11].

关税、地缘与 AI 叙事扰动，春节多数资产收涨 [Table_Authors] 陈菲(分析师) 全球股市立体投资策略周报 2 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 春节期间发达市场普涨，特朗普关税裁定、中东局势升级及 AI颠覆担忧并存，避险 与风险资产齐涨。资金面上，美国经济数据呈滞涨特征，叠加联储官员偏鹰发言， 联储降息预期走弱。基本面上，美股 26 年盈利预期上修，中欧经济高频景气上修。 投资要点： | | chenfei4@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-23187260 S0880525040127 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 鹰派沃什交易落地，股市波动率攀升 2026.02.03 地缘风险频发，避险资产领涨 2026.01.27 地缘事件与财报季交织，科技结构冲高 2026.01.20 跨年行情在途，亚洲继续领涨 2026.01.14 岁末年初躁动下亚洲市场领涨 2026.01.06 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.25 [Tabl ...