策 略 研 究 融资资金流入加速，外资重回流入 [Table_Authors] 方奕(分析师) 投资者微观行为洞察手册·12 月第 2 期 本报告导读： 本期市场成交热度有所抬升，赚钱效应边际下降。从资金层面看，偏股公募基金新 发行边际回落，融资资金流入加速，外资流入 A 股和港股。 投资要点： 资产概览：全球风偏降温，贵金属领涨 2025.12.15 成交活跃度升高，创业板指估值领涨 2025.12.13 资产概览：商品/权益上涨，中债熊陡 2025.12.09 AI 产业延续高景气，服务消费同比偏强 2025.12.09 融资资金延续流入，ETF 平稳回流 2025.12.08 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 观 察 证 | | | | | 021-38031658 | | --- | --- | | | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | | 郭胤含(分析师) | | | 021-38031691 | | | guoyinhan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524100001 | | | 田开轩(分析师) | | ...

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.15 把握跨年行情布局时机 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 转债事件点评 本报告导读： 预计转债市场短期将维持震荡巩固，在临近年底时有望预热反弹。建议均衡配置， 攻守兼备。短期来看，若市场出现因流动性扰动带来的调整，可视作布局时机。 投资要点： | | 021-38038201 | | --- | --- | | | guyige@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 12 月 FOMC会议简评：眼下的鸽与未来的鹰 2025.12.12 跨年攻势序幕有望开启 2025.12.08 压力测试下转债具备韧性 2025.11.24 REIT 打新策略数据跟踪 2025.10.29 买卖国债如何理解：从"长"计议 2025.10.28 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 点 债 券 研 究 事 件 评 [Table_Summary] 过去一周（12 月 8 日-12 月 12 日），A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化格 局，成长风格显著跑赢。主要指数中，创业 ...

资讯汇总 [table_Header]2025.12.15 【ESG 投资周报】本月新发绿色债券 73 只，银行理财稳步发行 产业研究中心 摘要： | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 赵子健(分析师) | | | 021-38032292 | | | zhaozijian@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520060003 | | | 王佳(分析师) | | | 010-83939781 | | | wangjia7@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524010001 | | | 蔡晨(分析师) | | | 021-38031023 | | | caichen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080002 | [Table_Report] 往期回顾 【双碳周报】全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量 明显下调 2025.12.12 【行业 ESG 周报】中法进一步加强气候与环境合 作，我国人为碳排放总量增幅显著收窄 2025.12.12 【双碳周报】全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量 明显下降 2025.12.02 【 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the military industry as "Overweight" [9] Core Viewpoints - The military sector has seen an increase, with the Russian military's use of "Dagger" missiles reaching record levels. The recent joint air strategic patrol between China and Russia, along with the potential for U.S. defense spending to hit new highs, indicates a long-term positive trend for the military industry [2][7][8] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Key investment themes include: 1) Assembly: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, Aerospace South Lake, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry [9] 2) Components: AVIC Optoelectronics, Guobo Electronics, Ruichuang Micro-Nano [9] 3) Subsystems: Aero Engine Corporation of China, AVIC Avionics, North Navigation [9] 4) Materials and Processing: Feilihua, Guangwei Composite, Huayin Technology, Western Materials, Aviation Materials [9] Market Review - The military sector index rose by 3.57%, outperforming the market by 3.92 percentage points, ranking 2nd out of 29 sectors during the week of December 8-12 [11][12] - The defense information technology sector performed particularly well, with notable stock performances including Aerospace Power and West Materials [19][20] Major News in the Military Industry - Domestic news includes the completion of nearly 200 million yuan in Series A financing by Dream Sky Technology, leading the hybrid tilt-rotor sector [22][23] - Internationally, the U.S. defense budget for fiscal year 2026 is projected to exceed 900 billion USD, with significant military aid to Ukraine [28][29]

新股精要—国内 PVA 一体化生产领先企 业双欣环保 本报告导读： 双欣环保（001369.SZ）是国内领先的聚乙烯醇（PVA）产业链一体化生产企业，核 心产品销量规模均位居国内前列，积极拓展下游高附加值产品有望持续为公司开辟 业绩增长来源。2024 年公司实现营收/归母净利润 34.86/5.21 亿元。截至 12 月 12 日， 可比公司对应 2024 年 PE 平均值为 23.56 倍，对应 2025/2026 年 Wind 一致预期 PE 平均值分别为 16.96/13.20 倍（均剔除极端值）。 投资要点： 新股研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.15 | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 王政之(分析师) | | | 021-38674944 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | | | 施怡昀(分析师) | | | 021-38032690 | | | shiyiyun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060002 | | | 王思琪(分析师) ...

| 新股精要—抗溢胶特种膜国内细分龙头厂 | | --- | | 商新广益 | ——IPO 专题 本报告导读： 新广益（301687.SZ）是抗溢胶特种膜国内细分龙头厂商，2024 年国内市场占有率 达到 30%。2024 年公司实现营收/归母净利润 6.57/1.16 亿元。截至 12 月 12 日，公 司所在申万三级行业膜材料 PE（TTM,剔除负值）为 66.88 倍，2025 年和 2026 年 预测 PE 分别为 92.74 倍和 49.91 倍。 投资要点： 新股研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.15 | [Table_Authors] | 王政之(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38674944 | | | wangzhengzhi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880517060002 | | | 施怡昀(分析师) | | | 021-38032690 | | | shiyiyun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522060002 | | | 王思琪(分析师) | | | 021-38038671 | | | wang ...

全球物流黑马，盈利拐点已至 极兔速递-W(1519) ——极兔速递首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 虞楠(分析师) | 021-23219382 | yunan@gtht.com | S0880525040110 | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | 本报告导读： 极兔速递凭借高度灵活的区域代理制度实现从东南亚到全球的快速扩张，东南亚地 区成为利润基石，中国地区盈利改善，新兴市场有望构建第二增长极。 投资要点： | 财务摘要百万美元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 8849 | 10259 | 12100 | 14317 | 17405 | | +/-% | 22% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 22% | | 毛利润 | 473 | 1078 | 1 ...

摩登东方茶，多品牌矩阵齐发力 沪上阿姨(2589) 沪上阿姨首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读： 公司实施"一体两翼"战略，多品牌开店潜力较大。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 3,348 | 3,285 | 4,132 | 4,685 | 5,354 | | (+/-)% | 52.3% | -1.9% | 25.8% | 13.4% | 14.3% | | 毛利润 | 1,017 | 1,027 | 1,298 | 1,471 | 1,681 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in breeding costs, with stable growth in both domestic and international feed businesses [1] - The target price has been adjusted to 11.27 CNY due to a decline in pig prices expected after October 2025, leading to a downward revision of earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [8] - The company’s breeding cost per kilogram has decreased to 12.5 CNY, with further potential for reduction [8] - The feed segment is expected to continue its robust growth, with a 16% increase in overseas sales volume in the first three quarters of 2025 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 141,703 million CNY, with a slight increase of 0.1% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly from 249 million CNY in 2023 to 1,077 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a growth of 117.1% in 2023 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.06 CNY in 2023, increasing to 0.24 CNY by 2026 [2] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 1.0% in 2023 to 4.0% in 2026 [2] Market Data - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 8.35 CNY and 11.04 CNY over the past 52 weeks [3] - The total market capitalization is approximately 40,883 million CNY [3] Balance Sheet Summary - Shareholder equity stands at 25,762 million CNY, with a book value per share of 5.72 CNY [4] - The company has a net debt ratio of 136.65% [4] Sales and Production Insights - In November 2025, the company sold 156.75 thousand pigs, with a revenue of 1.812 billion CNY [8] - The cumulative sales from January to November 2025 reached 1,573.65 thousand pigs [8] - The average selling price of commodity pigs was 11.54 CNY per kilogram [8]

Economic Overview - Domestic consumption remains weak, with overall commodity consumption showing poor performance and automotive sales cooling down[4] - Infrastructure investment continues to slow, with new housing transactions marginally declining[4] - M1 growth rate fell to 4.9% in November, down from 6.2% in the previous month, indicating a tightening liquidity environment[11] Market Trends - Global risk appetite is cooling, with precious metals outperforming other asset classes; gold prices increased by 2.2%[5] - Emerging market stocks rose by 1.0%, while developed market stocks saw a slight decline of 0.3%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.2%[5] Sector Insights - The automotive sector is expected to see heavy truck sales reach 720,000 units in 2026, with overall wholesale sales projected at 1.09 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3%[39] - Steel production decreased to 8.06 million tons, down 2.83% week-on-week, while total inventory fell by 33.5% to 13.32 million tons[41] Policy and Strategy - The central government emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal policies to stabilize investment and consumption, with a focus on boosting domestic demand[30] - The upcoming economic policies are expected to support sectors like technology, energy, and consumption, with a particular focus on AI applications and green energy initiatives[19]