股 票 研 究 | | | —通威股份 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评及近况更新 | [table_Authors] 徐强(分析师) | 徐柏乔(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号S0880517040002 | S0880525040113 | 本报告导读： 一季度亏损环比收窄，电池片和多晶硅业务进一步提质增效。公司的在行业领先地 位稳固，随着行业触底企稳回升，业绩有望迎来改善。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 139,104 | 91,994 | 97,675 | 117,346 | 141,247 | | (+/-)% | -2.3% | -33.9% | 6.2% | 20.1% | 20.4% | | 净利润（归母） | 13,574 | -7,039 | -2,745 | 2,242 | 5,7 ...

轮动加速，主线掘金 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 本报告导读： 中美第一阶段关税摩擦缓和，形成有利的做多窗口，建议围绕"科技成长+消费复苏" 双主线布局。关税博弈下自主可控和内需发力仍然是确定性较强的主线，由于权益 市场风险偏好有望回升，人形机器人、AI、低空经济等主题投资机会有望回归。 投资要点： | 轮动加速，主线掘金 | [Table_Authors] | 顾一格(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | 转债市场点评 | 登记编号 | S0880522120006 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 [Table_Summary] 从关税摩擦缓和预期到第一阶段协议落地，关税摩擦对权益市场的 冲击基本修复。4 月 3 日以来，权益市场上演了"关税冲击-缓和预 期交易-协议落地后轮动加速"的行情。4 月初中美关税摩擦升级， 投资者避险情绪升温，权益市场和转债市场受到较大冲击，4 月 7 日 上证指数单日下跌 7.34%，转债相对抗跌，随后市场逐步反弹。5 月 12 日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈 ...

强预期回归弱现实，商品波动加剧 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 ——钴锂金属周报 | 偶 | | --- | | 32 | | . | | 1 F | | | [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 宁紫微(分析师) | 梁琳(研究助理) | 相关报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | 登记编号 S0880522080001 | S0880523080002 | S0880125042230 | 2025.04.05 | 有色金属《对等关税落地，宏观情绪再施压》 有色金属《海外衰退预期升温，博弈或转向内 需》2025.04.06 有色金属《关税在即，预期转换临近》2025.03.30 本报告导读： 周初中美贸易政策释放积极信号，但钴锂市场需求气氛均偏冷清，价格上弹后均有 所回落。锂快速下跌近均衡成本后有望逐步弱稳，钴在原料偏紧下或仍坚挺偏强。 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.19 新股首日涨幅收敛，申购收益增厚有限 本周新股发行信息 [table 优优绿能_NewStock] （301590.SZ）发行 1050 万股 中策橡胶（603049.SH）发行 8745 万股 ——次新市场周报（2025 年 5 月第 2 周） | [table_Authors] 王政之(分析师) | 施怡昀(分析师) | 王思琪(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880517060002 | S0880522060002 | S0880524080007 | 本报告导读： 5 月第 2 周，次新板块延续上行趋势，领涨市场。当周上市 2 只新股首日涨幅收敛 至 100%附近，合计贡献 A/B 类投资者单账户打满收益 9.60 / 9.57 万元，对应 5 亿 规模账户增厚收益率为 0.19‰/0.19‰，收益增量有限。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 新 股 研 究 -IPO 专 题 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [9][16]. Core Views - Short-term performance is significantly under pressure, but long-term growth potential is promising. The target price has been raised, with the current stock price corresponding to a 2025 PE of 38X [3][9]. - The company is expected to face challenges in 2024, with a projected revenue of 3.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% [9][10]. - The report highlights a decline in same-store sales and an increase in store closure rates due to weak macro demand, with an estimated increase in closure rates for 2024-2025 [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company show a decline in 2025, with an estimated EPS of 0.57 yuan, down from a previous estimate of 0.98 yuan [9][10]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 22.95%, with a net profit margin of 10.33% [9][10]. - The balance sheet indicates total assets of 3.33 billion yuan and total liabilities of 1.32 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a net asset value of 2.01 billion yuan [4][10]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a 52-week price range of 13.43 to 24.15 yuan, with a current market capitalization of 8.96 billion yuan [3][9]. - The report notes a relative performance of -10% over the last three months compared to the index, indicating underperformance [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Tencent Holdings [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Tencent's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by the upgrade of its e-commerce division and the impact of AI on effective advertising and evergreen games, reinforcing capital expenditures [3] Financial Summary - For FY25Q1, Tencent achieved revenue of 180 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, surpassing market expectations of 175.7 billion RMB. Adjusted net profit reached 61.3 billion RMB, up 22.0% year-on-year, also exceeding the market forecast of 59.7 billion RMB. The gross margin was 55.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2 percentage points [7][10] - The financial outlook for 2025E projects revenue of 725.3 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit expected to be 249.0 billion RMB, reflecting a slight upward revision from previous estimates [7] Business Segments Performance - Value-added services revenue reached 92.1 billion RMB in FY25Q1, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, with gaming revenue at 59.5 billion RMB, up 24% year-on-year. Domestic and international gaming revenues were 42.9 billion RMB and 16.6 billion RMB, respectively, showing increases of 24% and 22% [7][30] - Marketing services generated 31.9 billion RMB in revenue, a year-on-year growth of 20.2%, driven by enhanced commercialization capabilities of platforms like Video Number and WeChat Search [7][32] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, reaching 54.9 billion RMB [7][38] Strategic Insights - The report emphasizes that Tencent, as the largest social traffic entry point, is expected to leverage AI to reconstruct platform value. The integration of AI technology is anticipated to enhance the overall growth quality and sustainability of the business [7][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 23.40 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has achieved continuous revenue growth through customer and product upgrades, with a 9.43% year-on-year increase in the average selling price of its main products in Q1 2025 [3][11]. - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory in various sectors, including functional footwear materials, automotive interiors, and electronic products, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being 1.17, 1.48, and 1.75 yuan respectively [11]. - The gross margin has returned to a normal operating range of 26.81% in Q1 2025, reflecting improved pricing power and competitive strength [11]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 555 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 2.59% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 46.42 million yuan, up 12.47% year-on-year [11]. - The total market capitalization is 3,324 million yuan, with a total share capital of 217 million shares [4]. - The company’s net asset per share is 6.80 yuan, with a current price-to-book ratio of 2.3 [5]. Financial Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 2,718 million yuan, with a net profit of 253 million yuan, indicating a growth rate of 13.1% and 30.5% respectively compared to 2024 [10][12]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 13.6% in 2024 to 17.9% in 2027 [10][12]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to decrease from 17.12 in 2024 to 8.73 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over time [10][12].

公募考核优化，食品饮料价值凸显 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——食品饮料行业跟踪 | . 1 | | | --- | --- | | | S 30 | | œ | | | | ﻟ | 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 | [table_Authors] 訾猛(分析师) | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 陈力宇(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880513120002 | S0880525040022 | S0880522090005 | 本报告导读： 公募基金考核优化，食品饮料板块作为相对低配的板块有望获得加配，饮料、啤酒、 白酒龙头等兼具业绩和权重标的配置有望加大，同时重视成长股估值空间打开。 投资要点： 研 究 报 股 票 研 究 告 踪 报 证 券 跟 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.15 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：1）白酒：发展更加理性，分化加剧，头部企业稳定性相 对较 ...

投资要点： 风险提示：外部不确定性上升 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.15 宏 观 研 究 政府加杠杆，缓解企业压力 [Table_Authors] 应镓娴(分析师) ——2025 年 4 月社融数据点评 本报告导读： 本期金融数据，一方面体现了政策端继续发力稳增长，包括政府债加快发行、加快 使用；另一方面，仍指向内需，尤其是居民部门需求修复速度还有待提振。我们认 为，国内政策仍将逐步渐进发力。 | | 021-38676666 | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | S0880525040060 | | | 贺媛(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880525040129 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 专 题 证 [Table_Summary] 社融增速反弹：政府债是主要贡献。4 月新增社融 1.2 万亿元，同比 多增 1.2 万亿，带动社融存量增速边际抬升至 8.7%，为 202 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.15 新疆龙头钢企，具备区位优势 八一钢铁(600581) ——八一钢铁 2024 年报暨 2025 一季报业绩点评 | | | | [table_Authors] 李鹏飞(分析师) | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 王宏玉(分析师) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 3.79 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880519080003 | S0880520010002 | S0880523060005 | | | 本报告导读： 钢铁需求持续偏弱，公司业绩短期承压，但我们持续看好行业供需格局改善，公司 业绩仍有较大修复空间。另外，公司具备较强区位优势，未来有望受益于"一带一 路"持续发展。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...