[Table_Industry] 机械行业 液氩延续上涨趋势；杭氧中标 BEST 低温 分配阀箱项目 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.18 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 工业气体行业周度跟踪（12 月第 1 周） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 赵玥炜(分析师) | 021-23185630 | zhaoyuewei@gtht.com | S0880525040040 | 本报告导读： 数据端看，2025 年 12 月第 2 周，液氩延续上涨趋势；稀有气体周均价环比持平。 负荷率端看，中国工业气体周度开工负荷率环比上行；事件端看，杭氧中标 BEST 低温分配阀箱项目。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《可控核聚变行业招标显著加速，联创 光电与中国能建签署战略协议》2025.12.14 机械行业《特斯拉开启新一轮审厂 ...

国别研究 [table_Header]2025.12.18 | [Table_Authors] | | | --- | --- | | | 李俊(分析师) | | | 021-23154149 | | | lijun8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040063 | | | 王祎婕(分析师) | | | 021-23185687 | | | wangyijie@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040089 | | | 汪立亭(分析师) | | | 021-23219399 | | | wangliting@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040004 | [Table_Report] 往期回顾 印尼内外需稳健——东南亚国别观察 2025 第 7 期 2025.11.30 企业出海合规要点与案例指南——印尼篇 2025.11.21 越南经济高增——东南亚国别观察 2025 第 6 期 2025.10.30 阿联酋投资洞察：石油王国到转型典范——中东 国别研究专题系列报告二 2025.09.17 出口保持高增长——东南亚国别观察 2025 ...

股 战略蓝图清晰，省际游轮打开成长空间 三峡旅游(002627) 三峡旅游首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 许樱之(分析师) | 0755-82900465 | xuyingzhi@gtht.com | S0880525040012 | 本报告导读： 需求回暖与公司省际度假游轮项目推进，有望打开业务新增量与盈利弹性。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,600 | 741 | 827 | 981 | 1,326 | | (+/-)% | -16.1% | -53.7% | 11.5% | 18.7% | 35.1% | | 净利润(归母) | 130 | ...

投资要点： 股 票 研 预期不变，信心充沛 农夫山泉(9633) 农夫山泉（9633）跟踪点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 45.84 | | 张宇轩(分析师) | 021-23154172 | zhangyuxuan@gtht.com | S0880525040039 | | | 本报告导读： 考虑到旺季旺销，低基数效应，以及聚酯瓶片有利价格，继续看好 25H2 业绩良好 表现。 | | | 风险提示。（1）食安风险，（2）需求不及预期，（3）成本波动。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.18 情绪消费风起，IP 趣玩行业快速增长 [Table_Industry] 传播文化业 IP 系列报告一 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 陈筱(分析师) | 021-38675863 | chenxiao@gtht.com | S0880515040003 | | 李瑶(分析师) | 021-23185669 | liyao6@gtht.com | S0880525120001 | 本报告导读： 情绪消费趋势下，IP 食玩行业快速发展，供应链管理及 IP 运营是核心。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 传播文化业《消费周期与 AI 叙事下的中国互联 网投资新范式》2025.06.03 票 研 究 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 行 行业专题研究 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Summary] IP 趣玩食品是"IP+食品+IP 赠品"结合。IP 趣玩食品包括收 ...

宏 观 研 究 广义财政仍需加力 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2025 年 11 月财政数据点评 本报告导读： 11 月税收收入增速回落，支出降幅收窄，但增速偏低。政府性基金收入 低位运行，主要与房地产市场疲软有关。随着专项债结存限额下达，政 府性基金支出增速回升。展望 2026 年，积极财政或将"主动靠前发力"。 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产需求有待提振。 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.18 | | 021-23185643 | | --- | --- | | | houhuan@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040074 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | 评 [Table_Report] 相关报告 美国就业：延续放缓 2025.12.17 M1 增速：能否企稳 2025.12.13 稳中求进，修炼内功 2025.12.11 核心 CPI 同比维持高位 2025.12.10 出口：动能修复，但基数将升 2025.12.08 证 券 研 究 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 75.92 CNY per share, based on a 26x PE valuation for 2026 [5][16]. Core Insights - The company's main business is stimulated by the rising silver prices, which have increased demand for high copper paste. The company has made strategic acquisitions to expand into the storage business, indicating clear long-term growth momentum [2][11]. - The silver price has surged significantly, reaching 14,812 CNY per kilogram by December 15, 2023, a 95.4% increase from the beginning of the year. This has accelerated the company's high copper paste product development and production [11]. - The company has successfully collaborated with downstream strategic customers, achieving stable supply of high copper paste products and is expected to complete GW-level production line commissioning in Q4 [11]. - The company has made acquisitions of Inmeng and Jiangsu Jingkai to create a closed-loop in the storage industry chain, enhancing its competitive advantages in application development, wafer testing, and packaging [11]. - The storage business is rapidly developing, focusing on the DRAM sector, with sales revenue of 269 million CNY achieved in the first three quarters of 2025. The market demand for storage continues to grow, supporting product prices [11]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 9,603 million CNY in 2023 to 20,158 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.7% [4][15]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to fluctuate, with a peak of 616 million CNY in 2027 after a dip to 138 million CNY in 2025 [4][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.65 CNY in 2023, dropping to 0.95 CNY in 2025, and then recovering to 4.24 CNY by 2027 [4][15]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 29.1% in 2023 to 7.6% in 2025, before rebounding to 22.6% in 2027 [4][15]. Market Data - The company has a market capitalization of 8,784 million CNY, with a current share price of 60.46 CNY, which is within a 52-week range of 35.67 to 74.61 CNY [6][5]. - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 6,785 million CNY in 2023 to 12,191 million CNY by 2027, indicating a strong asset growth trajectory [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The AI industry is witnessing significant developments, including the establishment of the Agentic AI Foundation by OpenAI, Anthropic, and Block, aimed at providing neutral governance for open and interoperable AI infrastructure [5] - JEDEC is nearing completion of the SPHBM4 memory specification, which will have only 1/4 the I/O pins of standard HBM4 memory, allowing for higher operational frequencies and increased system memory capacity [6] - OpenAI has partnered with Disney to allow the Sora platform to generate videos featuring iconic characters, enhancing content creation capabilities [7] - Google DeepMind plans to establish its first automated laboratory in the UK by 2026, focusing on materials science research [8] - Adobe has integrated its Photoshop and other tools into ChatGPT, allowing users to edit images and documents through simple text prompts [9] - Google announced the development of AI glasses powered by Gemini technology, set to launch in 2026 [10] - Dell and OpenCSG have launched an integrated IT infrastructure solution aimed at smart startups, facilitating a transition to intelligent architectures [11] - Google introduced the Disco project, which transforms browser tabs into customized web applications using Gemini technology [12] - OpenAI released the GPT-5.2 model, touted as the most advanced model to date, with various functionalities tailored for different user needs [13] - Google has opened its Gemini Deep Research AI to developers, marking a significant step towards industrial application of AI research capabilities [14] - OpenAI's adult mode for ChatGPT is expected to launch in Q1 2026, focusing on age prediction capabilities [15] - Opera has launched its AI browser Neon, integrating AI chat functionalities directly into the browser interface [16] - Boom Supersonic has introduced the Superpower gas turbine system, derived from its supersonic engine technology, aimed at the generator market [17][18] - Rivian has unveiled its self-developed RAP1 autonomous driving processor, utilizing a 5nm process for enhanced performance [19] - Starcloud has achieved the first-ever training of a large language model in space, utilizing a satellite equipped with NVIDIA H100 GPUs [20] - NVIDIA and SK Hynix are collaborating on next-generation SSDs, aiming to enhance data transfer speeds by 8 to 10 times [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Oracle (ORCL.N) [7][12] Core Insights - Oracle has significantly raised its FY2026 capital expenditure guidance by $15 billion to $50 billion, indicating potential bottlenecks in revenue realization due to data center construction progress [3][12] - The remaining performance obligations (RPO) for Oracle reached $523 billion, with a net increase of $68 billion quarter-over-quarter, including contracts from Meta and NVIDIA [12] - Oracle's revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 have been adjusted to $67 billion, $84 billion, and $128 billion respectively, with Non-GAAP net profits estimated at $21 billion, $24 billion, and $33 billion [12] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million USD): - FY2024: 52,961 - FY2025: 57,399 - FY2026E: 67,046 - FY2027E: 84,328 - FY2028E: 127,751 - Year-over-year growth rates: - FY2024: 6.0% - FY2025: 8.4% - FY2026E: 16.8% - FY2027E: 25.8% - FY2028E: 51.5% [5] - Non-GAAP net profit (in million USD): - FY2024: 15,709 - FY2025: 17,283 - FY2026E: 21,068 - FY2027E: 23,945 - FY2028E: 33,509 - Adjusted PE (diluted): - FY2026E: 25.7 [5][12] Market Data - Current price: $184.92 [7] - Market capitalization: $531,299 million [8] - 52-week stock price range: $122.82 - $328.33 [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company with a target price of 15.00 CNY [6][12]. Core Views - The company aims to enhance its industrial chain layout and strengthen synergy effects through the acquisition of a 59.1816% stake in Hangtou Yuhua, which holds equity in five core enterprises in the airborne industry chain [2][12]. - The acquisition is valued at 202 million CNY, based on a third-party assessment of 342 million CNY for 100% of the stake, and is expected to be approved by the relevant authorities [12]. - The five target companies possess unique technical expertise, which will help the company to fill gaps in its industrial chain and foster new growth points [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 29,007 million CNY in 2023, with a slight increase of 4.6% year-on-year. However, a significant decline of 17.7% is expected in 2024 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,886 million CNY in 2023, reflecting a substantial increase of 39.6%, but a decrease of 44.8% is anticipated in 2024 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.39 CNY in 2023, dropping to 0.22 CNY in 2024, before gradually increasing to 0.36 CNY by 2027 [4][12]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 62,083 million CNY, with a total share capital of 4,839 million shares [7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 10.17 CNY to 12.88 CNY over the past 52 weeks [7]. Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 5.2% in 2023 to 2.8% in 2024, before gradually improving to 4.2% by 2027 [4][13]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 32.53 in 2023, increasing to 58.96 in 2024, and then decreasing to 35.60 by 2027 [4][13].