| | | | 基金继续推动短端信用行情，存单二永买入力度加强 | [Table_Authors] | 藏多(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | ——机构行为周度跟踪 20250528 | 登记编号 | S0880525040116 | | 本报告导读： | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | 上周资金市场整体平稳，银行间债市杠杆率略降；一级市场利率债热度分化；二级 | | 021-38676666 | | 市场长债超长债热度依然一般，农商行和保险承接力度减弱，基金加仓二永债和存 | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | 单。 | | | 研 究 [Table_Summary] 资金市场：资金交易平稳、杠杆率继续略有下降。过去一周资金市 场整体表现平稳。主要融入方净融入金额上升，主要融出方净融出 金额下降，资金过手方净融入金额下降。银行间总融入融出回购余 额小幅提升，银行间债市杠杆率略降。分机构看，商业银行/政策性 银行、保险公司杠杆率上升，证券公司、非法人产品杠杆率下降。 隔夜回购占比上升。 一级市场：10Y 国债一级发行需求较好，10 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.28 铜质文创第一品牌，持续重视自研 IP 投入 [Table_Industry] 传播文化业 ——一文读懂铜师傅招股书 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 行业专题研究 目录 | [table_Authors] 陈筱(分析师) | 陈俊希(分析师) | [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | 登记编号 S0880515040003 | S0880520120009 | | 本报告导读： 公司在铜质文创产品市场份额达 35%，有较强的自研 IP 能力，为细分领域的绝对 龙头，有望乘新消费浪潮获得快速发展。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 铜质文创工艺品龙头，线上直销占比达 70%。公司是我国铜质文创 工艺产品的第一品牌，以原创设计推动长期差异化发展，在铜质文 创领域确立了稳固的龙头地位。参考弗若斯特沙利文的数据， ...

Economic Trends - Vietnam's GDP growth rate is 6.9%, maintaining stability despite a slight decline compared to 2024's average[19] - Indonesia's economic growth has slowed to 4.87%, the lowest since March 2021, with investment growth at 3.79%[11] - Thailand's economic growth is steady at 3.1%, although consumer confidence has dropped to a seven-month low[18] Export Dynamics - Vietnam's exports surged by 21.0% in April, with imports growing at 21.8%, indicating a significant "export grab" during the tariff pause[24] - Malaysia's exports increased by 16.5% in April, reflecting a similar "export grab" effect due to the tariff adjustments[42] - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. reached over $12 billion in April, marking a new high since 2013, with a 32.1% share of total exports[24] Market Performance - Southeast Asian stock markets have largely recovered from the "equal tariff" impact, with Vietnam and Indonesia showing better performance compared to Malaysia and Thailand[54] - As of May 23, Indonesia's stock index has decreased by 1.2% year-to-date, while Thailand's index has dropped over 16%[61][62] Foreign Investment - Vietnam attracted $13.82 billion in foreign direct investment in April, a 39.9% increase year-on-year, with manufacturing receiving $8.9 billion, accounting for 64.6% of total investments[34] - Indonesia's foreign investment inflow fell to $3.74 billion in Q1, the lowest since Q3 2020, with significant declines from Singapore and the U.S.[14] Policy Adjustments - Vietnam and Malaysia are increasing support for the semiconductor industry, while Thailand is enhancing policies for SMEs and foreign investment[80] - Thailand is revising foreign ownership laws to attract more foreign investment, allowing foreign entities to exceed the 49% ownership cap under certain conditions[85]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Increase" rating for the electronic components industry [1]. Core Insights - The launch of the video call feature on the Doubao APP enhances the interaction capabilities of AI+AR glasses, driven by advancements in multimodal large models [2]. - AI+AR glasses are identified as the optimal platform for multimodal interaction, integrating various input methods such as voice, gestures, and touch, which will benefit from the evolution of multimodal large models [2]. - A surge in the release of AI+AR glasses is anticipated within the year, with major companies like Meta and Xiaomi expected to introduce new products, contributing to significant market growth [2]. - Global shipments of AI glasses are projected to increase rapidly, with an estimated 2.34 million units expected to be sold in 2024 and 5.5 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 135% [2]. Summary by Related Tables - **Valuation of Comparable Companies**: The report provides a detailed valuation table for several companies, indicating their closing prices, market capitalizations, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with all recommended companies rated as "Increase" [3]. - **Company Recommendations**: The report recommends specific companies such as GoerTek, Hengxuan Technology, and Crystal Optoelectronics, among others, as potential investment opportunities in the AI+AR glasses sector [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have stabilized at the bottom, with expectations of a turning point in June as national temperatures rise and inventory decreases [3] - The report continues to recommend key companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company [4] - April coal production data indicates a significant decline, reflecting the pressure on profitability due to rapid price drops [4] - The report anticipates a rebound in thermal coal prices starting in June, driven by demand recovery and supply adjustments [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - As of May 23, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Huanghua Port (Q5500) is 621 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton (-0.5%) from the previous week [9] - The report notes a decrease in coal production across most provinces, with a national production of 390 million tons in April, down 50 million tons from March [4][4] - Daily iron and steel production has shown signs of reaching a peak, with average daily pig iron production at 2.435 million tons, down 12,000 tons from the previous week [5] Coking Coal Data Tracking - The price of coking coal at major ports remains stable, with slight declines noted [43] - As of May 23, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port (Shanxi origin) is 1300 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [41] - The report highlights a decrease in coking coal inventory at major ports, with a total of 2.94 million tons, down 1.9% from the previous week [63] Market Overview - The report indicates that the overall coal market is experiencing a supply contraction faster than expected, with May production likely to decline further compared to April [4] - The report emphasizes that the domestic supply of coal remains stable while imports are expected to decrease [5] - The report also notes that the price of Australian coking coal has decreased, with the landed price at 203 USD/ton, down 1 USD/ton (-0.5%) [53]

Macro Insights - Recent rise in Japanese super long-term bond yields is attributed to increased fiscal expansion concerns, weak domestic demand for long-term bonds, and poor auction results, leading to market pessimism about supply-demand balance [4][8] - The impact of rising Japanese bond yields on China's interest rates is limited, but it serves as a reminder that low interest rates may not persist indefinitely, even without clear economic recovery signs [9][10] Fixed Income - Japanese government debt reached a historical high of 2.539% for 20-year bonds, with 10-year and 30-year yields also at record levels, driven by fiscal risks, reduced bond purchases, and rising interest rate expectations [8][9] - The Japanese government debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 219.15% in Q1 2025, the highest among developed economies, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [8] Non-Ferrous Metals - A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi announced a production halt, stabilizing lithium prices around 60,000 yuan per ton, while cobalt remains in a tug-of-war between supply and demand [3][10] - Lithium prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand, despite some short-term price rebounds from production adjustments [11][12] Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is projected to benefit from the gradual maturity of autonomous driving technologies, with recommendations for companies like XPeng Motors and Ideal Auto [29][30] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in China increased by 12% year-on-year in early May, with new energy vehicle sales up 32% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [30][31] Robotics - The recent robot combat competition showcased the advanced motion control capabilities of the Unitree G1 robot, highlighting its potential in the robotics market [24][25] - Investment recommendations include companies involved in high-precision reducers and joint drives for humanoid robots, emphasizing the importance of these components in robotic performance [31][33] Textile and Apparel - The apparel retail sector showed stable growth in April, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% in retail sales, although the overall performance was relatively weak compared to Q1 [27][28] - Recent quarterly reports from major overseas apparel brands indicate positive growth, particularly in the Greater China region, which is expected to drive future performance [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 20.48 CNY [5][11]. Core Views - The company, as a leading player in the lighting industry, is expected to continue consolidating its market share due to its scale, technology, and brand advantages. High dividends are anticipated to provide ongoing returns to shareholders, supporting the recommendation to increase holdings [2][11]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenues for 2024 are 7,096 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 903 million CNY, down 2.3% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at 1.28 CNY, with a growth of 6% compared to the previous year [4][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9 CNY per 10 shares for 2024, totaling 666 million CNY, which corresponds to a dividend payout ratio of 73.8% and a dividend yield of 5.02% [11]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from lighting application products and others is expected to be 7,033 million CNY, down 8.59% year-on-year. The gross margin for these products is projected at 39.08%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points [11]. - Domestic revenue is anticipated to be 6,362 million CNY, down 8.57%, while international revenue is expected to be 671 million CNY, down 8.75% [11]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected at 39.29%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin is expected to be 12.72%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points [11]. - The report details the expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs, indicating slight variations compared to previous periods [11]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 18.29 CNY, with a 52-week price range of 13.82 to 20.30 CNY. The total market capitalization is 13,629 million CNY [6][11]. - The report notes the company's performance relative to the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a 12-month absolute increase of 18% and a relative increase of 16% [10][11].

Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a correction, with MSCI Global down by 1.9%, MSCI Developed down by 2.1%, and MSCI Emerging down by 0.5%[6] - The Hang Seng Index showed the best performance among emerging markets, increasing by 1.1%, while the Korean Composite Index declined by 1.3%[14] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for the Hang Seng Index were revised upward, with 2025 EPS forecast increased from 2214 to 2222[4] - In contrast, the S&P 500's 2025 EPS forecast was downgraded from 264 to 263, and the Eurozone STOXX50's forecast decreased from 348 to 347[4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economic surprise index rose from -12.6 to 6.0, indicating a potential recovery, while the Eurozone's index fell from 15.4 to 12.5 due to tariff impacts[96] - China's economic surprise index stood at 45.9, benefiting from policy support and easing trade tensions with the U.S.[96] Liquidity Conditions - Global liquidity conditions tightened, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates 1.9 times this year, while the European Central Bank is expected to cut rates 2.3 times[7] - Long-term interest rates for major countries increased, with the UK 10Y bond yield rising by 13.3 basis points, the largest increase among developed markets[6] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples performed well in the U.S. and Europe, while technology sectors faced adjustments[21] - In the Hong Kong market, healthcare and materials sectors led gains, with increases of 6.1% and 5.6% respectively[21]

Sales Performance - In the third week of May (5/12-5/18), the top three new force terminal sales were Li Auto (9,200 units, up 12.2% MoM), Leap Motor (7,500 units, down 3.8% MoM), and AITO (7,500 units, unchanged) [9] - The top three brand terminal sales during the same period were BYD (55,700 units, down 19.4% MoM), Volkswagen (29,400 units, down 35.9% MoM), and Toyota (25,400 units, down 19.4% MoM) [9] New Vehicle Releases - New vehicles released from May 17 to May 23 include BYD e7 (priced between 103,800 to 115,800 CNY) and Deep Blue S09 (priced between 239,900 to 309,900 CNY) [10] Lithium Battery Market Insights - As of May 23, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 63,000 CNY per ton, continuing a downward trend due to an oversupply situation [11] - Recent price fluctuations in battery cells, modules, and PACKs indicate a stable yet pressured market environment for lithium carbonate [11] Investment and Financing Events - From May 17 to May 23, three significant financing events in the smart vehicle sector occurred, including: - Feiman Technology completed an angel round financing of several million CNY to accelerate the development of non-inflatable tire technology [18] - Heimholtz completed a C round financing to enhance R&D in thermal management systems for new energy vehicles [19] - Shiyu Technology completed an A round financing, with investors including Dongfang Chanyin and Anhui Haiyuan Capital [20] Risk Factors - Potential risks include lower-than-expected sales of new energy vehicles, changes in production plans, and delays in product development [23]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic disturbances, including uncertainties surrounding Trump's tax reform and tariff threats, are expected to lead to fluctuations in metal prices. Domestic macroeconomic benefits may offset some overseas impacts, but attention should be paid to downstream demand feedback during the traditional off-season [3][6] - Gold prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating due to market sentiment and geopolitical tensions, while industrial metals are expected to experience price volatility influenced by macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Trump's tax reform has passed in the U.S. House Budget Committee, raising concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and increasing market risk aversion, leading to a rise in gold prices. However, uncertainties remain regarding the final implementation of the tax reform and tariff threats, resulting in expected price fluctuations for gold and industrial metals [4][6] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - As of May 23, the SW non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.25%, ranking 4th among all industries [11] 3. Metal Prices and Inventory 3.1 Industrial Metals - As of May 23, copper prices on SHFE decreased by 0.45% to 77,790 CNY/ton, while LME copper increased by 1.72% to 9,610 USD/ton. The overall inventory of copper decreased by 8.76% week-on-week [21][22][9] 3.2 Precious Metals - As of May 23, SHFE gold prices rose by 3.76% to 780.10 CNY/gram, while COMEX gold increased by 6.25% to 3,386.50 USD/ounce. The total gold inventory on COMEX decreased by 3.76 tons [24][25] 4. Macro Data Tracking - The report highlights various macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. CPI and PPI, which are essential for understanding the broader economic context affecting metal prices [30][34] 5. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum, Shandong Gold, Shanjin International, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhongtung High-tech, all rated as "Overweight" [4][91]