产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 产品及投资方案部 I 环球市场动态 I 2024 年 3 月 25 日 上周五欧洲股市表现平淡，三大股市个别发展，泛欧斯托克 600 指数跌 0.03%。截至收盘，英国富时 100 指 数收报 7,930 点，升 48 点或 0.61%；德国 DAX 指数收报 18,205 点，升 26 点或 0.15%；法国 CAC 40 指数 收报 8,151 点，跌 27 点或 0.34%。 个 股 要 闻 华住集团 (HTHT US; 37.8 美元; 目标价: 48 美元) 淡季经营韧性验证。2023 年四季度收入略优于预 期，业绩基本符合预期。四季度公司总收入 55.85 亿元/+50.7%，经调净利润 6.57 亿元，经调整净利率 11.8%，同比 提高 18.6 个百分点。2023 年全年收入 218.82 亿元/+57.9%，经调整净利润 41.19 亿元，整体利润符合预期。精益增 长战略和区域组织架构调整下，门店提质明显，带来 2023 年公司 RevPAR 恢复行业领先，正反馈下签约开店数量领 ...

人民币在中国央行明显调弱中间价 后大跌，上周五美元指数涨 0.4% 至 104.43，金价回落。 产品及投资方案部 I 环球市场动态 I 2024 年 3 月 25 日 上周五拉美主要两大市场下跌，其中标普墨西哥 IPC 指数跌 0.08%至 56,610 点，盘面上通讯服务、医疗保健 及金融领跌，跌逾 1%；巴西 IBOVESPA 指数跌 0.88%至 127,027 点，盘面上房地产、医疗保健及日常消费 品跌幅最大，跌 2%，个股中 Banco Itau (ITUB4 BZ; -2.09%) 及淡水河谷 (VALE3 BZ; -1.15%) 为拖累指数最 多成份股。 个 股 要 闻 产品及投资方案部 I 环球市场动态 I 2024 年 3 月 25 日 资料来源：彭博、中信证券 根据 GICS 分类 资料来源：彭博 资料来源：相关公司、中信证券 风险等级：由低至高分 1 至 5 级 虽然市场处于经济上行趋势中，但随着美元短期波动加剧，人民币波动加大，A 股震荡下跌。上周五，A 股延 续前一日下跌行情，主要指数低开低走。截至收盘，沪指收报 3,048.03 点，下跌 29.08 点或 0.95%；深成指 收 ...

Global Market Overview - European stocks saw a general rise, with French stocks reaching new highs, while Asian markets experienced a decline, with Hong Kong and China outperforming [3] - The US bond market showed a downward trend as expectations for interest rate cuts diminished, leading to a decline in US and European government bonds [5] US Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with the first rate cut anticipated in June [7][10] - US inflation data for February exceeded expectations, with both overall and core CPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating persistent core inflation [20] - The resilience of US technology stocks over the past decade is noted, with Nasdaq index performance driven by valuation initially, followed by earnings realization [12] Japanese Market Focus - Japan's economic growth is expected to remain weak, with the Bank of Japan likely to maintain negative real interest rates even after ending its easing policy [29][59] - The anticipated increase in short-term interest rates by the Bank of Japan is expected to benefit insurance and banking sectors, with major banks like Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group projected to see dividend yields of 3.1% and 3.4% respectively [38][64] Global Technology Trends - Demand for technology terminals is stabilizing, with a focus on AI-related stocks such as CrowdStrike and Sea, which are expected to benefit from AI's contribution to revenue and profit [24][26] - The global server shipment volume for Q4 2023 was reported at 3.1 million units, a year-on-year decline of 17%, aligning with expectations as budgets prioritize AI [43] Investment Recommendations - CrowdStrike is highlighted for its positive outlook, with expectations of low double-digit growth in its annual recurring revenue (ARR) for FY25Q1, and a strong performance anticipated in the second half of the year [54] - Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee is expected to achieve high double-digit growth in GMV for 2024, with adjusted EBITDA projected to turn positive in the second half [27]

环球市场动态 2024 年 3 月 25 日 内 地 财 政 收 入 偏 冷 反 映 经 济 冷 热 交 互 2024 年 1-2 月内地一般公共财政收入同比下降 2.3%，再次录得负增长，增值税、个人所得税、外贸企业出口 退税是主要拖累，原因一方面是出口增速提升，另一方面也反映开年经济冷热交互。一方面，增值税、个人所 得税下降反映经济循环、居民收入存在结构性压力，另一方面出口退税高增反映外需逐渐改善。财政支出保持 较高增速，增发国债项目密集落地带动基建相关项目支出增速双位数增长。政府性基金收入出现低位企稳态势， 支出增速明显下滑，原因在于专项债发行进度偏慢。"中央扩张、地方收紧" 是 2024 年财政政策的主题，我们 认为今年城投有息债务的增长态势有望收敛，但也可能伴随基建实物工作量偏弱的风险。 重点新闻：美国通过 1.2 万亿美元拨款法案以避免了政府部分停摆；俄罗斯莫斯科近郊音乐厅上周五发生恐怖 袭击；我国国常会召开，要求进一步优化房地产政策，推动城市房地产融资协调机制落地见效；国家总理李强 表示，要加大清理拖欠企业账款力度；中国发展高层论坛 2024 年年会开幕，中国将在生物制造、商业航天、 新材料、低 ...

环球市场动态 内 地 财 政 收 入 偏 冷 反 映 经 济 冷 热 交 互 重点新闻：美国通过 1.2 万亿美元拨款法案以避免了政府部分停摆；俄罗斯莫斯科近郊音乐厅上周五发生恐怖 袭击；我国国常会召开，要求进一步优化房地产政策，推动城市房地产融资协调机制落地见效；国家总理李强 表示，要加大清理拖欠企业账款力度；中国发展高层论坛 2024 年年会开幕，中国将在生物制造、商业航天、 新材料、低空经济等七大领域推动设备更新，有望形成年规模 5 万亿以上的巨大市场；中国 2 月实际使用外资 金额约 1,020 亿元人民币，同比下降 27%；中国公布数据跨境流动规定，放松对数据跨境流动监管；中国金融 监督管理总局要求银行保险机构建立数据安全责任制；特斯拉据悉已在本月开始削减在华汽车产量；苹果商谈 在中国的 iPhone 等设备中使用百度的 AI 技术。 上周五在岸人民币跌破 7.2，拖累 A 股震荡下跌，港股大幅下降；欧 洲市场个别发展，法国下跌，英国 和德国收涨；美股涨跌不一，道 指、标指下跌，纳指逆市上涨；亚 太股市方面，菲律宾股表现较弱， 印度股走高，日股反弹。 人民币在中国央行明显调弱中间价 后大跌，上周五美 ...

美国通胀超预期，美元指数回升，日元下跌； 地缘局势持续紧张，油价上涨；铜价上周曾升破9,000美元关 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------|-----------|----------|-------------------------------------|----------------------------------|----------|------------|---------------------------|------------| | | | 1 周变动 | 上周环球外汇及商品表现 \n1 个月变动 | 3 个月变动 | 1 年变动 | 本年度变动 | 52 周最低 | 52 周最高 | | 货币 | 当前价格 | | | | | | | | | 美元指数 | 103.43 | 0.7% | (0.8%) | 0.9% | (1.2%) | | 2.1% 99.58 107.35 | | | 欧元 / 美元 | 1.09 | (0.5%) | 1.1% | (0.1% ...

资料来源：彭博 注:MSCI亚洲新兴市场指数(除中 国)以美元计价，其它指数以本地货币计价 产品及投资方案部 I 中港市场动态益 I 2019 年 12 月 20 日 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 人民币在中国央行明显调弱中间价后大跌，上周五美元/离岸人民币尾盘较前一交易日纽约尾盘上涨 0.75%， 报 7.2761 元、美元/在岸人民币夜盘上涨 0.41%，报 7.2292 元；上周五美元指数涨 0.4%至 104.43，上周创下 两个月来最大单周涨幅；金价回落，纽约期金下跌 1.1%，报 2,160.0 美元/盎司。 2024 年 3 月 25 日 2024 年 1-2 月内地一般公共财政收入同比下降 2.3%，再次录得负增长，增值税、个人所得税、外贸企业出口 退税是主要拖累，原因一方面是出口增速提升，另一方面也反映开年经济冷热交互。一方面，增值税、个人所 得税下降反映经济循环、居民收入存在结构性压力，另一方面出口退税高增反映外需逐渐改善。财政支出保持 较高增速，增发国债项目密集落地带动基建相关项目支出增速双位数增长。政府性基金收入出现低位企稳态势， 支出增速明显下滑，原因在于专项债发行 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a decline in China's general public fiscal revenue by 2.3% year-on-year in January-February 2024, primarily due to decreases in VAT, personal income tax, and export tax rebates, reflecting structural pressures on the economy and residents' income [2][10] - Fiscal expenditure remains high, driven by intensive issuance of government bonds, leading to double-digit growth in infrastructure-related project spending [2][10] - The theme of fiscal policy in 2024 is characterized by "central expansion, local tightening," suggesting a potential moderation in the growth of urban investment debt, although risks of weak infrastructure work volume may accompany this trend [2][10] Group 2 - The report notes that the onshore RMB fell below 7.2, causing fluctuations in A-shares and significant declines in Hong Kong stocks, while European markets showed mixed results [3][11] - The US stock market exhibited mixed performance, with the Dow and S&P 500 declining, while the Nasdaq rose, influenced by earnings reports from major companies like Nike and Lululemon [12][14] - The report indicates that the investment-grade segment of Chinese dollar bonds is stabilizing, while high-yield real estate bonds are experiencing significant declines, with Fitch downgrading Vanke to junk status [11][45] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of Meituan, which saw a 22.6% year-on-year revenue growth in Q4 2023, driven by strong growth in its takeaway and in-store services, although the profit margin in its core local business declined by 2.1 percentage points [39] - The report emphasizes that Meituan plans to optimize its business model in 2024 to reduce losses in its Meituan Preferred segment, focusing on user experience and reducing subsidies [39] - The report also highlights that China Nuclear Power plans to invest 121.6 billion yuan in 2024, a 52% increase year-on-year, primarily for nuclear power unit construction and renewable energy investments, signaling positive growth in the nuclear sector [41]

Group 1 - The report highlights that China's general public fiscal revenue decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in January-February 2024, indicating a negative growth trend, primarily due to declines in value-added tax, personal income tax, and export tax rebates [30] - The report notes that while fiscal expenditure remains high, government fund revenues have stabilized at low levels, with a significant slowdown in expenditure growth attributed to the slow issuance of special bonds [30] - The theme of fiscal policy for 2024 is characterized as "central expansion, local tightening," suggesting a potential convergence in the growth of urban investment debt, albeit with risks of weak infrastructure work volume [30] Group 2 - The report indicates that the stock market in mainland China, Hong Kong, and the Philippines performed poorly, with the Hang Seng Index and CSI 300 Index dropping by 2.16% and 1.01% respectively [20] - The report mentions that the A-share market continued its downward trend, with major indices opening lower and closing with significant declines, reflecting a broader market weakness [41] - The report also highlights that the performance of major sectors in the Hong Kong stock market was uniformly negative, with large technology and financial stocks showing particularly weak performance [38] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of Meituan, which exceeded expectations in Q4 2023 with total revenue growth of 22.6% year-on-year, reaching 73.7 billion RMB, driven by strong growth in its delivery and in-store services [39] - The report notes that Meituan's core local business saw a decline in profit margins, primarily due to investments in live streaming and self-operated store models, indicating a competitive landscape in the food delivery market [39] - The report anticipates that Meituan will optimize its business model in 2024 to reduce losses, focusing on user experience and price premiums [39] Group 4 - The report highlights that China National Nuclear Power plans to invest a total of 121.6 billion RMB in 2024, a 52% increase year-on-year, primarily for nuclear power unit construction and renewable energy investments [42] - The report suggests that the acceleration of approvals in the nuclear sector will lead to steady investment growth, benefiting companies involved in core equipment and components related to nuclear power [42] - The report recommends focusing on companies that will benefit from increased nuclear investment and technological upgrades, such as China First Heavy Industries and China National Nuclear Power [42]

环球市场动态 2024 年 3 月 25 日 内 地 财 政 收 入 偏 冷 反 映 经 济 冷 热 交 互 2024 年 1-2 月内地一般公共财政收入同比下降 2.3%，再次录得负增长，增值税、个人所得税、外贸企业出口 退税是主要拖累，原因一方面是出口增速提升，另一方面也反映开年经济冷热交互。一方面，增值税、个人所 得税下降反映经济循环、居民收入存在结构性压力，另一方面出口退税高增反映外需逐渐改善。财政支出保持 较高增速，增发国债项目密集落地带动基建相关项目支出增速双位数增长。政府性基金收入出现低位企稳态势， 支出增速明显下滑，原因在于专项债发行进度偏慢。"中央扩张、地方收紧" 是 2024 年财政政策的主题，我们 认为今年城投有息债务的增长态势有望收敛，但也可能伴随基建实物工作量偏弱的风险。 重点新闻：美国通过 1.2 万亿美元拨款法案以避免了政府部分停摆；俄罗斯莫斯科近郊音乐厅上周五发生恐怖 袭击；我国国常会召开，要求进一步优化房地产政策，推动城市房地产融资协调机制落地见效；国家总理李强 表示，要加大清理拖欠企业账款力度；中国发展高层论坛 2024 年年会开幕，中国将在生物制造、商业航天、 新材料、低 ...