[Table_Author] [Ta工b业le金_属Re和p贵T金itl属e]延续强势 能源金属现边际改善迹象 [Table_—T—itl有e]色金属行业2024年二季度及上半年业绩点评 [Table_Date] 2024 年 9 月 2 日 [内Ta容ble提_S要um：mary] 2024年上半年，有色金属（申万）板块共有136只成份股，合计 营业收入为16888.83亿元，同比增长3.03%，合计净利润为 738.15亿元，同比增长3.33%。2024年上半年，有色金属（申万） 板块总资产报酬率为4.11%，同比下降0.42个百分点，净资产收 益率为10.26%，同比下降2.99个百分点。 与2023年同期相比，今年上半年工业金属板块保持营业收入和净 利润双增态势；贵金属和小金属板块虽然营业收入下降，但净利 润却逆势增长；能源金属和金属新材料板块营业收入和净利润双 降。 2024年上半年，有色金属板块整体股价涨幅为15.45%，排在第5 位，其内部各板块表现分化。能源金属板块表现最差，金属新材 料板块跌幅也较大，工业金属与贵金属板块涨幅相当，表现最好， 小金属板块股价涨幅也较明显。 2024年二季度，有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.06 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.81%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 984 million yuan, up 60.20% year-on-year [3][7]. - The company is deepening its international business, with overseas revenue growing by 18.82% to 7.712 billion yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 48.02% of total revenue, an increase of 4.85 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The engineering machinery segment showed stable revenue growth, with a 7.24% increase to 14.607 billion yuan in H1 2024, despite a challenging domestic market [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.121 billion yuan, a 12.11% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 486 million yuan, up 62.48% year-on-year [3][7]. - The overall gross margin improved by 3.27 percentage points to 23.40% in H1 2024, driven by cost reductions and a higher proportion of value-added overseas business [4][7]. Business Segments - The engineering machinery segment's revenue rose by 7.24% to 14.607 billion yuan, with earth-moving machinery revenue increasing by 15.91% to 9.937 billion yuan, accounting for 61.87% of total revenue [3][4]. - The company launched 62 international products in H1 2024, enhancing its market share in emerging markets [3][4]. Profitability Forecast - The report projects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.74 yuan, 0.97 yuan, and 1.19 yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 12.95, 9.88, and 8.05 times based on the closing price of 9.58 yuan on August 30 [7][8].

1. 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Title] 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Author] 分析师： 杜征征 执业证书编号：S1380511090001 联系电话：010-88300843 邮箱：duzhengzheng@gkzq.com.cn CPI 与 PPI 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 -6 0 6 12 18 -2 0 2 4 6 2014-072015-072016-072017-072018-072019-072020-072021-072022-072023-072024-07 % % CPI:同比 PPI:同比(右轴) 南华工业品指数 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 1,000 1,400 1,800 2,200 2,600 3,000 3,400 3,800 4,200 4,600 19-07-1820-01-0220-06-1820-12-0321-05-2021-11-0422-04-2122-10-0623-03-2323-09-0724-02-2224-08-08 南华工业品指数 宏 观 点 评 报 告 [T相关报告 able_Report] 1．《通胀回 ...

宏 观 研 究 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Title] [Table_Author] 分析师： 杜征征 执业证书编号：S1380511090001 联系电话：010-88300843 邮箱：duzhengzheng@gkzq.com.cn 工业增加值 -32 -16 0 16 32 48 64 2018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-072023-012023-072024-012024-07 %工业增加值:当月同比 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 -24 -12 0 12 24 36 2018-072018-112019-032019-072019-112020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112023-032023-072023-112024-032024-07 %社会消费品零售总额:当月同比 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 [T相关报告 able_Report] 1．《经济延续温和复苏 等待政策加快落地— 5 月经济 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [2][4]. Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 21.26% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2024, reaching 15.314 billion yuan, and a 33.28% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, amounting to 1.070 billion yuan [2]. - The company benefits from a favorable pricing model linked to aluminum prices, which has positively impacted revenue during periods of price increases [2]. - The growth in shipment volume, improved product mix, and increased foreign trade have contributed to the company's strong performance [2]. - The company is expanding its recycled aluminum production capacity, which is expected to enhance profit margins further [2]. - Research and development investments are significant, with 809 million yuan allocated in the first half of 2024, supporting high-margin segments like rail transportation [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 34.806 billion yuan, 37.590 billion yuan, and 41.350 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.767 billion yuan, 1.984 billion yuan, and 2.248 billion yuan [3]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 7.98, 7.08, and 6.26, respectively, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [3]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve gradually, reflecting operational efficiency and market conditions [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The securities industry is undergoing a transformation towards a customer-centric model, driven by changes in growth dynamics, diverse customer needs, and evolving competition and regulatory environments [11][12] - The comprehensive registration system has fundamentally altered the operational logic of investment banking, leading to increased competition and sensitivity in pricing [29][30] - Institutional investors are becoming the main incremental force in the market, with their share of A-share holdings rising from 10.2% in 2019 to 18.83% in Q1 2024 [32][33] Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Customer Management and Services - The shift towards a customer-centric service model is a consensus in the industry, influenced by changing growth dynamics, diverse customer needs, and increased competition [11] - A well-structured customer management system can enhance customer satisfaction, increase trading frequency, and improve brand image [11][12] 2. Analysis of Securities Firms' Customers 2.1 Investment Banking Clients - The financing structure is rapidly focusing on strategic emerging industries such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, with significant changes in regional financing amounts [12][14] - Investment banking clients are increasingly professional and diversified, with many companies engaging in refinancing activities within two years post-IPO [20][21] - The registration system has led to a fundamental change in investment banking operations, with a shift towards a fully competitive market [29] 2.2 Wealth Management Clients - Institutional investors, including public funds and private equity, are becoming the primary incremental force in the market, with their share of holdings significantly increasing [32][33] - The demand from institutional clients is evolving towards more comprehensive and personalized services, requiring securities firms to enhance their service offerings [35][36] 3. Development of Customer Service Models - Securities firms are establishing integrated service models focused on key institutional clients, adapting their organizational structures to enhance service delivery [11][12] - The digital transformation and technological empowerment are crucial for implementing customer service strategies effectively [5][6]

策 略 研 究 宏 观 研 究 [Table_Author] 分析师： 刘晓溪 执业证书编号：S1380524040001 联系电话：010-88300644 邮箱：liuxiaoxi@gkzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Report] 万得全 A 指数 2024 年内走势 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 相关报告 市场轮动阶段，中小市值方向短期表现或强 于价值风格——周度策略观察（2024 年第 23 周） 扶优限劣仍是市场主导方向——周度策略观 察（2024 年第 24 周） 策 略 周 度 报 告 [Table_Title] "重指数、轻行业"策略更具实用性 ——周度策略观察（2024 年第 32 周） [Table_Date] 2024 年 8 月 19 日 [Table_Summary] 内容提要： 市场回顾：上周（0812-0816）市场一度全面反弹但整体继续呈 现震荡走势，大盘风格指数总体领涨，中小盘风格指数表现偏 弱；上周不同行业总体亮点有限，个股整体赚钱效应偏弱。商 品市场总体延续下行但表现分化，10Y 国债利率仍收 2.2%下 方；上周国内公布 7 月经 ...

GDP 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2021‐062021‐092021‐122022‐032022‐062022‐092022‐122023‐032023‐062023‐092023‐122024‐032024‐06 % GDP:当季同比 资料来源：Wind，国开证券研究与发展部 观 点 评 报 告 生产稳定消费偏弱 政策仍需加快落地 —6 月及二季度经济数据点评 从短期看，二季度经济增速回落有极端天气、雨涝灾害 多发等短期因素的影响，也反映出当前经济运行中的困 难挑战有所增多，特别是国内有效需求不足的问题比较 突出，国内大循环不够顺畅等。亮点则在于工业生产相 对稳定，出口有韧性，部分服务业保持较好发展态势。 综合来看，二季度 GDP 弱于预期，供给强于需求在 6 月 延续，上半年 GDP 增长 5%，对于全年实现 5%左右增长目 标而言压力有所上升。当前影响复苏的主因还是在于有 效需求不足，社会预期偏弱，未来政策仍需加快落地。 宏观点评报告 GDP 弱于市场预期。二季度 GDP 同比增长 4.7%，弱于市场预期（5.1%） 及一季度（5.3%）；上半年 GDP 同比增长 5%。从 PMI 看， ...

和 5月国内光伏出口继续量增价减,逆变器持续改善 分析师 梁晨 执业证书编号:S1380518120001 联系电话:010-88300853 邮箱:liangchen@gkzq.com.cn 光伏指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -48.00% -28.00% -8.00% 光伏指数 沪深300 资料来源:WIND,国开证券研究与发展部 行 业 重 大 事 件 点 评 报 告 风险提示。国际贸易环境恶化,市场恶性竞争,全球装机 需求不及预期风险,国内外经济复苏低于预期。 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 内容摘要: 2024 年 6 月 24 日 事件:近期,海关总署发布2024年5月国内光伏电池组件、 逆变器出口数据,对此我们点评如下: 光伏电池组件出口数据"量增价减"趋势明显。2024年5月 国内光伏电池组件出口金额28.27亿美元,同比下滑 38.7%,环比下滑0.9%,其中,光伏组件出口26.23亿美元, 同比下降36.8%,环比下降1.3%。2024年1-5月,国内光伏 电池组件累计实现出口147.47亿美元,同比下降33.3%,光 伏电池组件出口"量增价减"趋势明显。 分地区来看,1)出口金额 ...

[分Ta析b师le_:Author] 孟业雄 执业证书编号:S1380523040001 联系电话:010-88300920 [Table_Author] [有Ta色b金le_属P(icQ中u信ot)e]与上证综指走势图 资料来源:Wind,国开证券研究与发展部 [行Ta业b评le_级IndustryRank] 中性 [相Ta关bl报e_告Report] [核Ta心ble观_S点ummary] 近日,我国稀土行业迎来重要里程碑,国务院正式公布了《稀土 管理条例》(以下简称《条例》),该《条例》将于2024年10 月1日起全面施行。 《条例》的诞生并非一蹴而就,其制定过程历经了广泛的社会讨 论与修订。该《条例》共计32条,全面覆盖了稀土工作的基本原 则、资源保护、管理体制、产业高质量发展、全产业链监管、监 督管理措施及法律责任等多个关键领域。 《条例》明确指出,"稀土资源属于国家所有,任何组织和个人 不得侵占或者破坏稀土资源,国家依法加强对稀土资源的保护, 对稀土资源实行保护性开采",这一规定为稀土资源的保护性开 采提供了强有力的法律支撑。同时,《条例》还强调国家对稀土 产业发展实行统一规划,要建立健全稀土全产 ...