＃title＃ 陈鑫 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 计算机 OpenAI o1 引入"思维链"，算力需求持续提升 （9.17-9.21） ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 9 月 22 日 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃(＃ investS uggesti onCha nge＃ 维持 ） 投资要点 行 业 周 报 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 【兴证计算机】数据库：核心基 础软件，深度受益信创景气提升 （9.8-9.16） 【兴证计算机】华为计算产业： 全联接大会将至，生态建设有望 提速（9.1-9.7） 【兴证计算机】DCS 市场快速 发展，国产厂商乘风而起（8.25- 8.31） ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 蒋佳霖 jiangjialin@xyzq.com.cn S0190515050002 ＃assAuthor＃ 孙乾 sunqian@xyzq.com.cn S0190518110001 chenxin21@xyzq.com.cn S0190522030001 杨本鸿 yangbenhong@xyzq.com.cn S01905220 ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 非银金融 ＃title＃ 资产管理产业链跟踪九： 商品基金，被忽略的多元资产重要组成 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ （＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ 维持 ） ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 《资产管理产业链跟踪八：除 了低波，如何优化多元资产中 的红利策略》2024-09-05 《资产管理产业链跟踪七：红 利低波，多元资产组合的权益 拼图》2024-08-14 《资产管理产业链跟踪六：多 元资产配置，买方投顾的解 药》2024-08-06 ＃emailAuthor＃ ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 徐一洲 S0190521060001 ＃assAuthor＃ 研究助理： 李思倩 lisiqian@xyzq.com.cn ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 9 月 21 日 投资要点 ＃summary＃ ⚫ 商品基金投资逐步走进投资者的视野：2024 上半年，受益于全球大宗商品价 格上涨，尤其是地缘政治冲突加剧与美联储降息预期反复的双重影响推动了 市场避险情绪升温，国 ...

＃title＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 国防军工 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a **"Recommend"** rating for the diversified financial industry, specifically focusing on the financial leasing sector [1] Core Views - The **Financial Leasing Company Management Measures** (referred to as the "Measures") were revised and released in September 2024, aiming to promote the orderly development of the financial leasing industry [1] - The Measures introduce stricter risk management requirements, including a new **"Lease Receivables Provision Ratio"** of at least 2.5% [2][10] - The report highlights the importance of **risk prevention** and **returning to the core business of leasing** as key themes for the industry's development [2] - The report is optimistic about companies with **stable operations**, **high-quality manufacturer-regional development models**, and **excellent risk management capabilities**, such as **Jiangsu Financial Leasing** [2] Key Revisions in the Measures Major Shareholder System - The minimum shareholding ratio for major shareholders of financial leasing companies has been increased [1] - The total asset threshold for commercial bank shareholders has been lowered from **RMB 800 billion** to **RMB 500 billion** [1][3] - The total asset requirements for state-owned capital and state-owned financial capital investment and operation companies have been relaxed to **RMB 300 billion** and **RMB 500 billion**, respectively [1][6] - The registered capital requirements for these entities have been reduced from **RMB 10 billion** to **RMB 3 billion** and **RMB 5 billion**, respectively [1][6] Business Classification and Regulation - The Measures further clarify the scope of **basic business** and **specialized business**, canceling non-core and non-essential businesses [4] - The **basic business** scope has been expanded to include **"lease disposal and handling business"** [2][7] - The **specialized business** scope has been adjusted, with the removal of **"capital supplement tool issuance"** from the business scope [7] Risk Management - The Measures introduce stricter requirements for **profit stability** and **equity investment balance** for overseas financial leasing companies [1][6] - The profit requirement for overseas financial leasing companies has been tightened from **"two consecutive profitable fiscal years"** to **"three consecutive profitable fiscal years"** [6] - The equity investment balance limit for overseas financial leasing companies has been reduced from **50% of net assets** to **40% of net assets** [6] Shareholder Obligations and Corporate Governance - The Measures strengthen the protection of **minority shareholders' rights** and require financial leasing companies to ensure effective participation of minority shareholders in shareholder meetings [8] - The Measures emphasize the importance of **internal control systems** and risk management, with a focus on **capital adequacy**, **credit risk**, **liquidity risk**, and **operational risk** [4][8] Business Scope and Regional Expansion - Financial leasing companies are now allowed to establish **project companies** both domestically and internationally to conduct related leasing business [7][9] - The Measures clarify the **geographical scope** for financial leasing companies and their subsidiaries, allowing them to operate nationwide and establish project companies overseas under certain conditions [9] Fixed-Income Investment - The **fixed-income investment** scope has been expanded to include **interbank certificates of deposit** [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the express delivery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a significant increase in business volume, with a total of 14.38 billion packages delivered in August 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.5% [1][3]. - The average revenue per package decreased to 7.93 yuan, a decline of 5.5% year-on-year, while total revenue for the industry reached 114.12 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [1][3]. - The report highlights the strong performance of major players in the industry, with YTO Express, Yunda, and Shentong reporting revenue growth rates of 20.7%, 11.4%, and 21.5% respectively [1][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery sector is showing robust demand, with a business volume growth of 19.5% year-on-year and a total of 143.8 billion packages delivered in August 2024 [1][3]. - The industry’s CR8 index stands at 85.2%, indicating a stable competitive landscape [1][2]. E-commerce Delivery - Major companies such as YTO Express, Yunda, and Shentong reported significant increases in business volume, with YTO Express achieving a 29.9% growth [1][8]. - The average price per package for these companies has seen a decline, with YTO Express at 2.17 yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [1][9]. Financial Performance - SF Express reported a total revenue of 229.81 billion yuan, up 13.4% year-on-year, with a business volume of 10.43 billion packages, reflecting a 14.6% increase [1][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for revenue and valuation growth in the express delivery sector, driven by strong demand and favorable market conditions [1][3].

＃title＃ 重点公司 重点公司 评级 宁德时代 买入 东方电缆 买入 许继电气 增持 阳光电源 增持 特锐德 增持 ＃summary＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 电气设备 甘肃-浙江特高压直流工程稳步推进，持续看好电网设备 维持 ） ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ (＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 09 月 21 日 行 业 周 报 《【兴证电新-周报】关注锂电材 料旺季产能利用率修复，取向硅 钢价格再上涨》2024-09-15 《【兴证电新-周报】国网招标持 续落地，9 月硅片电池排产环比 收缩酝酿涨价》2024-09-07 《【兴证电新-周报】输变电第四 批招标落地，电网设备景气度持 续提升-20240901》2024-09-01 分析师： 王帅 wangshuai21@xyzq.com.cn S0190521110001 高元甲 gaoyuanjia@xyzq.com.cn S0190524080001 行业策略 电力设备 电改背景下电网智能化推进加速，持续关注出口带来的高景气及特高压业绩 ...

Investment Rating - No rating is provided for the company [2] Core Views - The company maintains a leading position in the lithium battery anode sector, with global leadership in shipments [3] - The company has a complete industrial chain in natural graphite anode materials, ensuring stable supply and quality [3] - In the artificial graphite anode sector, the company has established an integrated industrial chain through self-construction and cooperation, reducing production costs through process innovation [3] - The company is one of the earliest domestic enterprises to mass-produce silicon-based anode materials, with leading shipment volumes in the industry [3] - The company's silicon-carbon anode materials have reached the fifth generation, with a specific capacity of over 2,000Ah/g, and silicon-oxygen anode materials have achieved a specific capacity of over 1,500Ah/g [3] - In H1 2024, the company's anode material production capacity reached 495,000 tons/year, generating revenue of 5.179 billion yuan, with shipments exceeding 200,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.96% [3] - The company faces pressure in ternary cathode shipments due to slowing downstream demand [3] - The company focuses on the R&D and production of low-cobalt, high-energy-density, and cost-effective high-nickel ternary cathode materials [3] - In H1 2024, the company's cathode material production capacity reached 63,000 tons/year, generating revenue of 1.587 billion yuan, with shipments exceeding 9,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 50.30% [3] - The company is accelerating its global strategic layout, with projects in Indonesia and Morocco to enhance market share and competitiveness [3] - As of September 13, 2024, the company's market capitalization was 15.5 billion yuan, with a PE (TTM) of 11.9x [3] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's operating revenue was 25.11944 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.18% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 1.65391 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.42% [2] - The gross profit margin in 2023 was 17.66%, and ROE was 14.29% [2] - Earnings per share in 2023 were 1.5 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 15.30 [2] - In H1 2024, the company's operating revenue was 7.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.57% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in H1 2024 was 493 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.84% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in H1 2024 was 534 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.76% [2] Market Data - As of September 13, 2024, the company's closing price was 13.89 yuan [1] - The total share capital is 1.11668 billion shares, with a circulating share capital of 1.09934 billion shares [1] - The net assets are 11.70753 billion yuan, and total assets are 30.69465 billion yuan [1] - The net assets per share are 10.48 yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is actively participating in the Huawei ecosystem, enhancing its collaboration and positioning within the "Hongmeng + Euler" ecosystem [7]. - The company's performance shows steady growth, with a revenue of 1.58 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.10% [7]. - The innovative business segment is accelerating, with a revenue of 338 million yuan in H1 2024, a significant year-on-year growth of 95.84%, accounting for 21.38% of total revenue [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues for 2024-2026 are projected at 3.76 billion, 4.53 billion, and 5.42 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 20.4%, and 19.6% respectively [6]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The forecasted net profits for the same period are 239 million, 328 million, and 427 million yuan, with growth rates of 45.9%, 37.3%, and 30.2% respectively [6]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to stabilize at 26.1% from 2024 to 2026 [6]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Projected ROE is expected to increase from 6.6% in 2024 to 9.8% in 2026 [6]. Business Segment Performance - **Financial Technology**: Revenue of 839 million yuan in H1 2024, with a growth rate of 6.69% [7]. - **Smart IoT**: Revenue of 489 million yuan in H1 2024, with a growth rate of 15.50% [7]. - **Smart Energy Information**: Revenue of 191 million yuan in H1 2024, with a growth rate of 22.74% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains the investment rating for the computer industry [2] Core Insights - The overall revenue of the computer industry showed a slight increase, while profits continued to be under pressure. In H1 2024, the total revenue reached 774.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.74%. Excluding key server companies, the revenue was 357.14 billion yuan, with a smaller growth of 4.27% [10][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in H1 2024 was 12.52 billion yuan, down 22.53% year-on-year, indicating ongoing profit pressure [12] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 16.60%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points compared to the previous year, which affected profit growth [19] - The industry is experiencing a continuous differentiation in performance across segments, with B-end and C-end fields performing relatively better. Key segments like cloud computing, smart vehicles, and industrial software showed strong growth, while sectors like network security and financial technology faced declines [31][10] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - In H1 2024, the computer industry achieved a revenue of 774.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.74%. The revenue growth rate for the median company was only 0.9%, indicating stronger resilience among leading companies [10][12] - For Q2 2024, the revenue was 428.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.32%, with a median growth rate of 0.7% [10][12] Profitability - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024 was 12.52 billion yuan, down 22.53% year-on-year, with a median growth rate of -11.76% [12][15] - In Q2 2024, the net profit was 9.60 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.04% year-on-year, with a median growth rate of -7.36% [12][15] Segment Analysis - The cloud computing segment showed robust growth, with SaaS leading the way. In H1 2024, the average revenue for leading SaaS companies was 3.06 billion yuan, up 6.57% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 71.87% [31][34] - The industrial software segment also demonstrated resilience, while sectors like network security and financial technology faced challenges due to reduced IT spending [31][10] Cost and Margin Analysis - The overall gross margin for H1 2024 was 16.60%, down 2.03 percentage points from the previous year. The cost structure showed a slight decrease in expense ratios across management, sales, R&D, and financial expenses [19][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a 6% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in H1 2024, with revenues of 5.186 billion yuan, net profit of 267 million yuan, and net profit after deducting non-recurring items of 241 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of +3.67%, +3.81%, and +0.21% respectively [2] - The company has a stable operation in high-density convenience supermarket management, with significant investment returns from Xinwang Bank [2] - The company has adjusted its store product structure and improved store renovations, completing upgrades for 202 stores and opening 16 new stores, totaling 3,655 stores by June 30, 2024 [2] Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company's gross margin was 28.98%, and net margin was 5.14%, with a slight decrease in gross margin by 0.37 percentage points year-on-year, while net margin remained stable [2] - The company expects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 0.43, 0.46, and 0.49 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.7, 9.2, and 8.6 [2][3] - The total assets of the company are projected to grow from 8,110 million yuan in 2023 to 9,639 million yuan in 2026, with a steady increase in net profit from 561 million yuan in 2023 to 663 million yuan in 2026 [3][4]