行 ＃title＃ 北 研 行 बार 周 周 究 重点公司 yanxiaoqing@xyzq.com.cn S0190521020002 24W37 人民币汇率环比上升。2024 年 9 月 9 日-9 月 13 日，美元兑人民币汇率周 度均价 7.1210，环比+0.20%，同比-2.31%。 suzijie@xyzq.com.cn S0190522070005 wangyuqing@xyzq.com.cn S0190523070007 投资建议：高股息+政策托底，看好下半年家电内外销景气延续，继续推荐低估 值、高股息白电龙头以及自主品牌出海强α标的。 1）继续推荐高股息、业绩增长确定性强的美的集团、海尔智家、格力电器、苏泊 尔、海信家电； 周庆 2）建议关注估值底部的 TCL 电子、石头科技(石头科技为兴业证券做市公司)、科 沃斯、海信视像。 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 ＃相关rel报ate告dReport＃ 《【兴证家电】以旧换新加速落 地 ， 政 策 兑 现 弹 性 初 显 》 2024-09-08 《【兴证家电】家电行业 24 年 中报总结：板块内部分化，白电 韧性充足》2024-09-03 ...

行 ＃title＃ zhaoyuanji@xyzq.com.cn 北 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 有色金属 行 बार 周 据 金价强势突破，黄金股估值迎来修复窗口期 维持 ） ＃inve推stSu荐ggestion＃ ( ＃ investS | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|-------| | | | onChan | | | | ge | ＃ | | | 重点公司 | 重点公司 | 评级 | | | | | | | | | 金诚信 洛阳钼业 | 增持 增持 | | | | 铜陵有色 | 增持 | | | | | | | | | 中国铝业 | 增持 | | | | 神火股份 | 增持 | | | | 天山铝业 | 增持 | | | | 驰宏锌锗 | 增持 ...

＃title＃ ＃summary＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 电气设备 关注锂电材料旺季产能利用率修复，取向硅钢价格再上涨 维持 ） ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 09 月 15 日 ＃investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ (＃ investS uggesti onChan ge＃ | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------|-------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

＃title＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 建筑材料 ＃ investSuggest ion＃ 推荐 （维持） 重点公司 行 业 周 报 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证建材】周观点：水泥价 格继续推涨，关注零售建材淡旺 季切换》2024-09-08 《【兴证建材】2024 年中报总 结：谷底静盘桓，蓄势待飞扬》 2024-09-05 《【兴证建材】周观点：关注水 泥价格上涨，零售建材业绩分化 明显》2024-09-01 ＃ emailAuthor＃ | --- | --- | |----------|------------------------------------| | 重点公司 | 评级 | | 东方雨虹 | 增持 | | 三棵树 | 增持 | | 森鹰窗业 | 增持 | | 伟星新材 | 增持 | | 科顺股份 | 增持 | | 坚朗五金 | 增持 | | 兔宝宝 | 增持 | | 中国巨石 | 增持 | | 北新建材 | 增持 | | | 资料来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for SQM, suggesting a potential upside of 5%-15% relative to the market index [2][5] Core Views - SQM is a global leader in lithium and iodine businesses, with additional operations in fertilizers and other industrial chemicals [2] - The company benefits from low-cost lithium extraction advantages in the Atacama Salt Flat and has strategic capacity expansions in China and Australia [2] - SQM's partnership with Codelco extends lithium extraction rights until 2060 and increases extraction quotas, enhancing long-term growth prospects [2] - The company expects to achieve a lithium production capacity of 305,000 tons by the end of 2025, maintaining its position as a global leader [2] Financial Performance - SQM's 2024Q2 revenue, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, and net income were $1.294 billion, $384 million, $413 million, and $214 million, respectively, reflecting YoY declines of 37%, 55%, 53%, and 63% due to lower lithium and fertilizer prices [2] - Lithium sales in 2024Q2 were $665 million, down 55% YoY but up 21% QoQ, driven by increased sales volume despite a 73% YoY drop in average selling price to $12,700/ton [2] - The company's adjusted EBITDA for 2024-2026 is projected to be $1.58 billion, $1.757 billion, and $2.278 billion, with YoY growth rates of -50.3%, +11.2%, and +29.6%, respectively [2][3] Capacity Expansion and Production Guidance - SQM plans to expand its lithium capacity to 305,000 tons by the end of 2025, including 240,000 tons in Chile, 40,000 tons in China, and 25,000 tons in Australia [2] - The company expects 2024 lithium production to reach 210,000 tons, with sales guidance of 190,000 tons, allowing for inventory accumulation [2] Valuation Metrics - As of September 11, 2024, SQM's stock price implies EV/EBITDA multiples of 6.9x, 6.2x, and 4.8x for 2024-2026, respectively [2] - The company's market capitalization stands at $10.96 billion, with a total equity of $4.94 billion and total assets of $10.77 billion [1] Market Position - SQM held an 18% global market share in lithium sales in 2023, slightly ahead of Albemarle's 17% [2] - Over 90% of SQM's lithium sales are concentrated in the Asian market, highlighting its strong regional presence [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for growth compared to the market index [2]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 352 million yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.41%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 103 million yuan, up 40.68% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 186 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.76%, with a net profit of 48 million yuan, growing 19.45% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin improved to 97.16% in the first half of 2024, an increase of 1.41 percentage points year-on-year, while the overall expense ratio decreased by 2.93 percentage points to 74.71% [2]. - The company is focused on continuous product iteration and market expansion, particularly in the financial sector, enhancing its competitive edge and market influence [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 937 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.0%. The net profit is expected to reach 355 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.8% [3]. - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at 95.8% for 2024, with a slight increase to 95.9% in 2025 and 2026 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 4.67 yuan in 2024, increasing to 6.81 yuan by 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 21.96 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.239 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, with Q2 alone contributing 12.36 billion yuan in revenue and 661 million yuan in net profit [2] - Despite significant inventory impairment affecting short-term performance, the photovoltaic business remains profitable, with Q2 profits from the components segment reaching 220 million yuan, driven by strong performance in the North American market, which accounted for over 25% of total sales in H1 2024 [2] - The energy storage business is on track, with H1 sales reaching 2.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 3309%, and the annual shipment forecast has been raised to 6.5-7.0 GWh, supported by a backlog of approximately 66 GWh in orders valued at 2.6 billion USD [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 21.96 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.239 billion yuan, with Q2 figures showing revenue of 12.36 billion yuan and net profit of 661 million yuan [2] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 2.615 billion yuan, 3.620 billion yuan, and 4.730 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.8x, 11.4x, and 8.8x for 2024 [2][4] Business Outlook - The company is focusing on balancing shipment volume and pricing under the principle of "profit first," with Q3 component shipment expectations set at 9-9.5 GW and an annual target of 32-36 GW [2] - The energy storage segment is expected to see significant growth, with a forecasted shipment of 1.4-1.7 GWh in Q3 and a total of 6.5-7.0 GWh for the year, indicating a strong second growth curve for the company [2] Market Data - As of September 12, 2024, the company's closing price was 11.23 yuan, with a total share capital of approximately 3.688 billion shares and a net asset value of 21.644 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 169 million yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 63.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14 million yuan, up 35.21% year-on-year [3]. - The revenue growth is attributed to significant increases in procurement from major clients like Huawei, effective expansion in sectors such as healthcare, telecommunications, and electricity, and the consolidation of Jiangnan Keyou into the company's financials [3]. - The company has improved cash flow management, with operating cash flow improving from -28 million yuan in the previous year to -22 million yuan in H1 2024 [3]. - Increased sales investment led to a rise in gross margin, with a comprehensive gross margin of 76.83% in H1 2024, up 5.91 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2026 are 359 million, 465 million, 587 million, and 719 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.5%, 29.6%, 26.3%, and 22.4% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 67 million, 92 million, 113 million, and 139 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of -37.3%, 37.0%, 23.0%, and 22.7% respectively [2]. - The company's gross margin is expected to decline slightly from 73.2% in 2023 to 71.9% in 2026 [2]. - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 3.5% in 2023 to 6.4% in 2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.086 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.33%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 864 million yuan, up 12.48% year-on-year [6]. - The company's integrated layout is enhancing its profitability, with a projected self-supply ratio of nearly 50% for nickel by the end of the year, expected to improve further next year as new projects ramp up [6]. - Sales volume for nickel, cobalt, phosphorus, and sodium products exceeded 140,000 tons in H1 2024, marking a 15% increase year-on-year, supported by a strong product structure [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 43.572 billion yuan, 53.973 billion yuan, and 60.632 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.1%, 23.9%, and 12.3% respectively [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.038 billion yuan, 2.492 billion yuan, and 2.972 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 4.7%, 22.3%, and 19.3% respectively [5]. - The gross profit margin is projected to be 12.6% in 2024, 12.4% in 2025, and 12.6% in 2026 [5].

证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 横向通用软件 ＃investSuggestion＃ 增持 ( ＃ investSug gestionCh ange＃ 维持 ） ＃dyCompany＃ 天融信 （ 002212 ） 002212 ＃title＃ 新业务景气增长，持续推进降本增效 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 09 月 14 日 投资要点 ＃summary＃ ⚫ 事件：2024 年 H1，公司实现营业收入 8.73 亿元，同比下滑 13.07%；归母净 利润亏损 2.06 亿元，去年同期亏损 2.12 亿元；扣非归母净利润亏损 2.16 亿 元，去年同期亏损 2.22 亿元。2024 年 Q2 单季，公司实现收入 4.51 亿元，同 比下滑 15.82%；归母净利润亏损 1.16 亿元，去年同期亏损 1.21 亿元；扣非 净利润亏损 1.21 亿元，去年同期亏损 1.26 亿元。 ⚫ 新业务景气增长，现金流改善。分产品看，公司新业务新方向实现景气增长， 2024H1 公司云安全收入同比增长 51.52%，云计算收入同比增长 35.80%， 信创安全收入同比增长 22.99%。分行业看，2024 ...