investS 行 业 投 资 策 略 报 告 uggesti ＃assAuthor＃ 行 业 研 究 onChan | --- | --- | |----------|------------| | | | | 重点公司 | ge ＃ 评级 | | 赛维时代 | 推荐 | | 华凯易佰 | 推荐 | | 重庆百货 | 推荐 | | 富森美 | 推荐 | | 小商品城 | 推荐 | 金秋 jinqiu@xyzq.com.cn S0190520080004 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证社服&零售&美护】行业 周报（08.26-08.30）市内免税店 政策重磅落地，薇诺娜敏感肌产 品卷到东南亚》 《【兴证社服&零售&美护】行业 周报（08.19-08.23）：7 月海南免 税降幅略有走扩，《黑神话：悟 空》出世带动景点热度攀升》 《【兴证社服&零售&美护】行业 周报（08.05-08.09）：暑期机酒价 格同比下降，欧莱雅加码皮肤科 学美容赛道》 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 代凯燕 daiky@xyzq.com.cn S0190519050001 证 ...

＃title＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 银行 央行强调存贷利率下行面临约束，中小银行存款利率跟进下调 ——银行业周报（2024.09.02-2024.09.06） ＃ investSugges tion＃ 推荐 ＃ investSugg estionChan ge＃ (维持) 2024＃年createTime1 9 月 8 日＃ 投资要点 行 业 周 报 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 分析师： ＃emailAuthor＃ 陈绍兴 SAC:S0190517070003 chenshaox@xyzq.com.cn 王尘 SAC:S0190520060001 wangchenyjy@xyzq.com.cn 曹欣童 SAC:S0190522060001 caoxintong@xyzq.com.cn ⚫ 多家中小银行宣布 9 月初下调存款利率。根据财联社等媒体报道，原阳 农商银行、信阳珠江村镇银行、天镇河东村镇银行、钦州市钦南国民村 镇银行等多家中小银行发布公告称，将于 9 月初下调存款利率，调整幅 度为 5 至 30 个基点。今年 7 月国有大行集体宣布下调存款利率，开启新 ...

行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------|---------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | ＃ investSuggestion investSuggestion 推荐 ＃ | ( ＃ investS 维持） | ＃ title ＃ 草甘膦企业上调价格，三氯蔗糖价格延续上行 \n（ 20240902-20240906 ） | | | uggesti onChan | ＃ createTime1 ＃ 2024 年 09 月 09 日 | | 重点公司 重点公司 | ge ＃ 评级 | 投资要点 ＃ summary ＃ | | 万华化学 | 买入 | 本周（ 20240902-20240906 ）观点： | | 华鲁恒升 | 买入 | ⚫ 本周（ 20240902-20240906 ）原油价格回撤幅度较大，主因供给端利 ...

行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 医药生物 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------|----------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the aviation leasing industry [1] Core Insights - The aviation leasing industry is entering a high-growth cycle driven by stable passenger demand and an accelerated replacement of aging aircraft [7][8] - Supply chain issues continue to limit aircraft manufacturers' delivery capabilities, with shortages expected to persist until 2030 [15][18] - Rental rates for aircraft are on the rise, with significant increases noted for various aircraft models [22] - The upcoming interest rate cuts may marginally improve financing costs for leasing companies, although high costs are expected to persist in the short term due to existing debt [26][28] - The industry is experiencing consolidation, with a concentration of orders among leading companies, indicating an increase in market concentration [29] Summary by Sections 1. Asset Side: Stable Growth in Airline Demand and Supply Gap Driving Rent Increases - Passenger demand is steadily increasing, having returned to 2019 levels, with a global passenger volume growth of 8% year-on-year as of July 2024 [8][10] - Approximately 16% of active aircraft are over 20 years old and eligible for retirement, which could significantly reduce capacity in regions like North America and Europe if these aircraft are retired [12][13] 2. Supply Side: Ongoing Supply Chain Issues Leading to Limited Production Capacity - Aircraft manufacturers are facing declining delivery capabilities, with Airbus adjusting its 2024 delivery forecast from 800 to approximately 770 aircraft [15] - Supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, are expected to prolong the supply shortage until at least 2030 [18] 3. Pricing: Continuous Increase in Aircraft Rental Rates - As of July 2024, rental rates for various aircraft types have increased significantly, with A320neo and 737MAX rentals rising by 15% and 18% respectively, and A330-300 rentals increasing by 50% [22][23] 4. Liability Side: Upcoming Interest Rate Cuts Expected to Improve Financing Costs Marginally - The market anticipates a reduction in interest rates by approximately 99 basis points in 2024, with further cuts expected in 2025 [26][28] - Despite potential improvements, the overall cost of debt for leasing companies is expected to remain high in 2024 due to existing liabilities [26] 5. Competitive Landscape: Frequent Restructuring Events and Increasing Industry Concentration - The aviation leasing market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five companies holding a market share of 34.7% [29][30] - Major acquisitions, such as AerCap's purchase of GECAS, have contributed to increased market concentration [29]

深 度 研 究 报 告 ＃assAuthor＃ 公 司 研 究 | --- | --- | |--------------------|------------| | | | | 市场数据日期 | 2024-09-06 | | 收盘价（元） | 132.89 | | 总股本（百万股） | 151.43 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 151.43 | | 净资产（百万元） | 5438.32 | | 总资产（百万元） | 12339.9 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 35.91 | ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证汽车】春风动力 24H1 业 绩点评：24Q2 业绩超预期，两 轮车表现靓丽》2024-08-16 《【兴证汽车】春风动力 2023 年 报及 2024 一季报点评：公司经 营边际改善，24Q1 业绩超预期》 2024-04-17 《【兴证汽车 戴畅团队】春风动 力 2023 年三季报点评：2023Q3 盈利能力改善，产品持续升级》 2023-11-04 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 董晓彬 dongxiaobin@xyzq.com.cn S0190520080001 ...

公 | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------| | | | | ＃市场 ma 数 rk 据 etData ＃ | | | 日期 | 2024/9/6 | | 收盘价（元） | 5.39 | | 总股本（百万股） | 10,228 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 10,228 | | 净资产（百万元） | 71,854 | | 总资产（百万元） | 222,220 | | 每股净资产（元） | 7.03 | | | | caiyi@xyzq.com.cn S0190518030002 司总 评 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 火电 ＃investSuggestion＃ 增持 ( ＃ investSug gestionCh ange＃ 维持 ） ＃dyCompany＃ 华电国际 （ 600027 ） 000009 ＃title＃ 煤价下行贡献主要利润增量，24Q2 经营净现金流同比+104.30% ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 9 月 9 日 投资要点 ＃sum事ma件ry＃：华电国际发布 2024 年中报，报告期内公司合 ...

行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

＃title＃ 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 ＃industryId＃ 零售 ＃investSuggestion＃ 推荐 (维持 ） 最新市内免税店政策影响几何 ＃createTime1＃ 2024 年 09 月 09 日 行 业 点 评 报 告 ＃相关报告 relatedReport＃ 《【兴证社服&零售&美护】行业 周报（08.26-08.30）市内免税店 政策重磅落地，薇诺娜敏感肌 产品卷到东南亚》 《【兴证社服&零售&美护】行业 周报（08.19-08.23）：7 月海南免 税降幅略有走扩，《黑神话：悟 空》出世带动景点热度攀升》 《【兴证社服&零售&美护】行业 周报（08.05-08.09）：暑期机酒价 格同比下降，欧莱雅加码皮肤科 学美容赛道》 ＃分析师： emailAuthor＃ 代凯燕 daiky@xyzq.com.cn S0190519050001 ＃研究助理： assAuthor＃ 彭心瑶 pengxinyao@xyzq.com.cn 投资要点 ＃summary＃ l 市内免税店政策新增对出境中国旅客放开，为免税运营商提供更多发展空 间。在本次市内免税店政策颁布前，我国免税渠道主要有离岛免 ...

行 ＃title＃ 北 研 行 बार 周报 究 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | 重点公司 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 重点公司 评级 | | | | | | 美的集团 增持 | | | | | | 海尔智家 买入 | | | | | | 石头科技 增持 | | | | | | 海信视像 增持 | | | | | | 新宝股份 增持 | | | | | | 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 | | | | | ＃相关 rel | 报 ate 告 dReport ＃ 《【兴证家电】家电行业 24 中报总结：板块内部分化，白电 韧性充足》20 ...