行业周报 | 交通运输 证券研究报告 分析师：张晓云 S0190514070002 zhangxiaoyun@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：王凯 S0190521090002 wangkai21@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：袁浩然 S0190523070003 yuanhaoran@xyzq.com.cn 相关研究 【兴证交运】交通运输行业周报 （2024.12.22-2024.12.28）——春运旅 客量预计同比增长 10.9%-2024.12.29 【兴证交运】过境免签政策全面放宽， 各快递公司 11 月量价表现平稳——交通 运输行业周报（2024.12.15- 2024.12.21）-2024.12.25 【兴证交运】2024 年 11 月快递月报： 快递旺季量价表现平稳，季节特征逐步 淡化-2024.12.20 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 01 月 05 日 分析师：陈尔冬 S0190524080005 chenerdong@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：郭军 S0190524110002 guojun1@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：胡杉 S0190524080004 ...

行业周报 | 公用事业 证券研究报告 【兴证公用 蔡屹】公用周报：11 月进口 煤规模同比+26.38%，辽宁拟于 25 年 3 月起开展电力现货连续结算试运行- 2024.12.15 分析师：蔡屹 S0190518030002 caiyi@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李静云 S0190522120001 lijingyun@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：史一粟 S0190523110001 shiyisu@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 01 月 05 日 相关研究 【兴证公用】11 月天然气表观消费量同 比-0.5%，各省长协电价逐一落地- 2024.12.29 【兴证公用】11 月全社会用电量同比 +2.8%，江苏 25 年电力年度交易结果落 地-2024.12.23 研究助理：朱理显 zhulixian@xyzq.com.cn 陕西、安徽电力现货市场 25 年起连续结算试 运行，关注板块调整后配置价值 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/26 ⚫ 20241230-20250103，本期 A 股电力指数-4.87%，截至 1 月 3 日 PE（T ...

行业周报 | 建筑装饰 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐(维持) | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 01 月 05 日 | 相关研究 【兴证建筑】市值管理驱动分红率提升， 把握高股息、低估值建筑央国企投资机会 -2024.12.30 【兴证建筑】周观点：优化专项债管理机 制落地，基建投资&实物工作量有望双提 速（2024.12.21-2024.12.27）-2024.12.29 【兴证建筑】周观点：国资委市值管理意 见落地，重视低估值建筑央企投资机会 （2024.12.14-2024.12.20）-2024.12.22 分析师：黄杨 S0190518070004 huangyang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李明 S0190524060003 liming22@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 01 月 05 日 周观点：建筑业 PMI 回升明显，看好基建实 物工作量（2024.12.28-2025.1.3） 投资要点： 建筑业 PMI 回升，"两重"项目支持力度加大，2025 年多地重大项目上演集中开工潮， 基建实物工作量有望加速 ...

行业周报 | 电力设备 证券研究报告 | 报告日期 | 2025 年 01 月 05 日 | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | 相关研究 【兴证电新-周报】AI 数据中心建设如火 如荼，带动电源设备需求提升- 2024.12.29 【兴证电新】宁德时代换电规划带动新 需求,江苏海风竞配落地再验景气度- 2024.12.22 【兴证电新-周报】持续看好光伏锂电新 技术与风电整机盈利改善-20241215- 2024.12.15 分析师：王帅 S0190521110001 wangshuai21@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：高元甲 S0190524080001 gaoyuanjia@xyzq.com.cn AIDC 建设带动电源设备需求提升，排产景气 再验锂电需求景气度 投资要点： 行业策略 | 光伏 | 看好新技术变革及产业链盈利改善预期带来的结构性机会 | | --- | --- | | 锂电 | 看好锂电池龙头长期价值，关注后续产业链供需修复带来的机遇 | | 风电 | 江苏、广东海风开工进度有望推进，海外风电放量在即，推荐塔筒+海缆组合 | | 氢能 | 政策边际持续改善 ...

行业周报 | 计算机 证券研究报告 相关研究 【兴证计算机】eCall 产业跟踪：国标 AECS 有序推进，市场潜力巨大 -2024.12.29 【兴证计算机】AI 产业跟踪：鲶鱼效应发 酵，产业催化密集-2024.12.22 【兴证计算机】2025 年年度策略报告： 科技自强，乘风破浪 20241215-2024.12.16 分析师：蒋佳霖 S0190515050002 jiangjialin@xyzq.com.cn S0190518110001 sunqian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：陈鑫 S0190522030001 chenxin21@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：杨本鸿 S0190522080001 yangbenhong@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张旭光 S0190523090002 zhangxuguang@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：杨海盟 S0190523070001 yanghaimeng@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：桂杨 S0190524040005 guiyang@xyzq.com.cn 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 01 月 05 日 AI ...

行业投资月度报告 | 医药生物 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 01 月 04 日 相关研究 【兴证医药】CXO 行业深度报告：触底 回升、拐点已现，供需格局改善催化新 一轮上升周期-2024.12.29 【兴证医药】商保是国家医保有效补 充，有望提升创新药械可及性——行业 周报 2024.12.9-2024.12.15-2024.12.19 【兴证医药】医药生物行业 2025 年度策 略报告：创新渐入佳境，国内海外皆开 花-2024.12.15 分析师：孙媛媛 S0190515090001 sunyuanyuan@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：黄翰漾 S0190519020002 huanghanyang@xyzq.com.cn 政策端持续向好，看好 2025 年医药投资机会 ——兴证医药 2025 年 1 月投资月报 投资要点： ⚫ 风险提示：行业政策超预期变化，板块比较优势弱化。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/21 ⚫ 2024 年 12 月医药生物板块跑输沪深 300 指数，医药生物板块全月下跌 5.51%，沪深 300 指数全月上涨 0.47%。 ⚫ 本周，广州市 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The release of domestic demand is crucial for economic growth, with the current Chinese consumer market characterized by both incremental and stock consumption. Policies such as trade-in and consumption subsidies can stimulate consumer purchasing power, driving demand for higher quality, more environmentally friendly, and smarter products, thereby promoting the development of corresponding industrial chains and the economy [5][6] - The implementation of subsidy policies for home appliances, automobiles, and mobile phones is expected to significantly boost sales in these sectors. For instance, the retail sales of home appliances and audio equipment are projected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year in 2024 due to these subsidies [10][14] - The domestic smartphone market is experiencing steady growth, with a total shipment of approximately 2.8 billion units expected in 2024. The subsidy policy is anticipated to have a concentrated impact on smartphone sales in the first half of 2025, with potential sales elasticity ranging from 20% to 41% depending on the timing of the subsidy release [20][24] Summary by Sections 1. Subsidy Policies for Home Appliances, Automobiles, and Mobile Phones - Home appliance subsidies cover eight categories, including refrigerators and air conditioners, with a subsidy rate of 15-20% and a maximum subsidy amount of 2000 yuan per item [6] - Automobile subsidies have been enhanced, with increased support for scrapping old vehicles and purchasing new energy vehicles, leading to a significant increase in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [14][16] - Mobile phone subsidies are being implemented, with various regions offering different subsidy standards, such as 10-15% off the purchase price, with a maximum discount of 1500 yuan [19][21] 2. Domestic Smartphone Market Growth - The domestic smartphone market has shown robust growth, with shipments in the first three quarters of 2024 reaching 0.693, 0.717, and 0.688 billion units, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 9.2%, and 3.2% respectively [20][22] - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones has increased, with a significant shift in market share towards lower-priced and high-end models [22] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the mobile phone subsidy policy will primarily benefit Android devices, with various companies in the supply chain expected to actively prepare for increased demand. Beneficiaries include companies in passive components, connectors, thermal management, ODM, analog chips, CIS, and RF sectors [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (First Time)" [1] Core Views - The report highlights TCL Smart Home as a leading player in the refrigerator ODM export market, emphasizing its return to core business after TCL's acquisition [2][3] Company Overview - **History**: The company has a strong focus on refrigerator ODM exports and has undergone two ownership changes, with TCL taking full control [6][14] - **Governance**: TCL's complete acquisition has positioned the company for strategic growth [14][15] - **Financials**: The main business of refrigerators is steadily expanding, with continuous improvement in profitability [16] Industry Insights - **Global Trends**: There is a clear trend of upgrading refrigerators globally, with significant opportunities in overseas markets [27] - **Overseas Market**: The report notes stable volume growth and price increases, indicating a broad market potential [27] - **China Market**: The Chinese market shows slight volume decline but stable price growth, suggesting a steady growth trajectory [32] Competitive Advantages - **Scale and Strategy**: The company benefits from leading scale, a premium product strategy, and platform synergies [34] - **Asset Integration**: The completion of TCL's asset injection into the refrigerator and washing machine segment, along with ongoing subsidiary share buybacks, is expected to enhance operational efficiency [55] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - **Revenue Projections**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 151.8 billion in 2023, growing to 222.8 billion by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.1%, 19.8%, 10.8%, and 10.6% respectively [3][64] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to increase from 0.73 in 2023 to 1.18 by 2026 [64] - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 18.1 in 2023 to 11.2 by 2026, indicating potential for value appreciation [64]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [27] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the dividend rates of central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the construction sector are expected to increase due to market capitalization management policies, presenting opportunities for high dividend yields and low valuations [36][45] - The report highlights that the valuation of major construction SOEs remains low, with many trading below their net asset value, indicating a potential for price appreciation as dividend policies improve [17][45] Summary by Sections Dividend Rates and Yields in the Construction Sector - The report provides detailed data on the dividend rates and yields of various central SOEs, indicating that companies like China State Construction and China Railway have seen their dividend rates increase from 18.44% in 2018 to 20.82% in 2023 [17][44] - The average dividend yield for the construction sector in 2023 was reported at 3.00%, with central SOEs yielding 3.22% [52] Market Capitalization Management - The report discusses the implementation of market capitalization management policies by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), which will include performance evaluations based on market capitalization management [36] - It mentions that these policies encourage SOEs to enhance shareholder returns through increased cash dividends and share buybacks [36][45] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend construction SOEs, citing their improved cash flow and the potential for increased dividends as a result of ongoing debt reduction efforts [45] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China State Construction, China Railway, and several local SOEs such as Sichuan Road and Bridge and Anhui Construction [45]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The bond fund issuance in November saw a significant increase, with 20 new bond funds launched, totaling an issuance scale of 375.16 billion, representing a 178.2% increase month-on-month [2] - The largest bond fund issued was the Penghua Zhongzhai 0-3 Year Policy Financial Bond, with an issuance scale of 79.90 billion [2] - Retail bond funds primarily consisted of medium to long-term pure bond and mixed secondary bond funds, benefiting from the current rapid decline in interest rates [2] - The issuance of mixed funds remained stable, with 13 new mixed funds launched in November, totaling 40.11 billion, a 69.7% increase month-on-month [21] - The report highlights a trend of increasing interest in passive index funds, particularly those linked to broad indices like the CSI A500, with significant inflows observed [16][30] Summary by Sections Bond Funds - In November, 20 bond funds were established, with a total issuance scale of 375.16 billion, marking a 178.2% increase from the previous month [2] - The issuance included 4 mixed secondary bond funds totaling 44.94 billion, 1 mixed primary bond fund at 3.81 billion, and 11 medium to long-term pure bond funds at 157.35 billion, which saw a 356.1% increase [2][28] - The report emphasizes that the increase in bond fund issuance is largely driven by institutional capital inflows [2] Mixed Funds - A total of 13 mixed funds were launched in November, maintaining the same number as the previous month, with a total issuance scale of 40.11 billion, reflecting a 69.7% increase [21] - The report notes that the individual scale of newly issued mixed funds did not exceed 4 billion, indicating a subdued environment for actively managed equity funds [21] Passive Index Funds - The report indicates a strong interest in passive index funds, particularly those linked to broad indices, with significant inflows noted in the CSI A500 ETF [16][30] - The issuance of index funds increased significantly, with 101 new index funds launched in November, marking a notable expansion in the product lineup [38] Overall Fund Market - As of the end of November, the net asset value of public funds reached 31.99 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 16.5% and a month-on-month increase of 1.5% [10] - The total number of public fund shares reached 29.37 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% and a month-on-month increase of 1.5% [10]